Mesoscale Discussion 0294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017
Areas affected...Portions of eastern NY and New England
Valid 141757Z - 142300Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates of 2-3 inches per hour (locally
higher) will continue to develop north-northeastward through the
DISCUSSION...Deep surface low pressure analyzed off the NJ coast
will continue to develop north-northeastward, with observed pressure
falls over 10 mb per 2 hours across parts of southern New England.
This is indicative of the intense deep ascent across the Northeast,
and radar mosaic loops depict a well organized, comma-structure
precipitation pattern surrounding the cyclone. Snowfall rates of 2-3
inches per hour will continue to develop north-northeastward across
New England through the afternoon hours, as widespread intense
frontogenetic ascent intersects saturated deep dendritic growth
A band of warm-advection-enhanced heavy snow arches from
east-central NY through southern NH/VT and into far southern ME.
Much of this band continues to spread northward, with localized
snowfall rates to 4 inches per hour possible. However, the western
part of the band will pivot around parts of eastern NY and western
New England. These areas will experience the longest duration of the
highest snowfall rates within an evolving deformation zone.
Elsewhere, heavy snow with rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour will be
common across the region, south of the principal warm-advection
band. This activity will spread north-northeastward in tandem with
the motion of the warm conveyor component of the deeper cyclone.
Present indications are that the heavier snow will enter parts of
central ME after around 21Z.
An isolated lightning strike or two could accompany the heaviest
snow rates -- aided by modest midlevel destabilization related to
strengthening deep ascent. Areas of blizzard conditions will be
likely -- particularly in proximity to the Atlantic coast in
association with a band of intense flow encircling the cyclone. Wind
gusts around 35-40 kt have been observed across southern New
England, with the potential for near-zero visibility to continue
amid blowing snow. An influx of dry air in the midlevels should
continue to support a northward erosion in the precipitation across
southwest New England and vicinity -- contributing to the arching
component of the comma pattern corresponding to the broader
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 43187520 43977464 44757312 45147004 45056877 44336843
43477014 42837071 42407103 42337161 42467198 42897287
42647435 42657492 42787531 43187520
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