Welcome to the weather blog! While the web address has changed, the blog will still be the same Monday through Friday discussion - with some improvements! Over the course of the next few weeks and months, you'll find me experimenting and adding new features. Maps, pictures, and other multimedia are enhancements I'm hoping to be able to make with this new site as I learn more about how to maximize the site. The format will be similar to the old version - you'll find a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. If no technical discussion is available when you check in during the morning, check back later as it often comes after the Weather Summary - I try to indicate at the end of the general weather summary when/if a technical discussion is coming. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net
Matt's Weather Summary: After fierce winds swept through New England on Thursday, the weekend looks fantastic. The round of damaging winds came ahead of a strong cold front, pushing east as the associated area of low pressure deepened rapidly over Southern Canada. With the front to our east, and low pressure pulling away, west-northwest winds have ushered in a crisp fall airmass from Canada. As a bubble of high pressure over the Ohio Valley moves east into New England, winds will be light for our Friday. Skies won't be entirely clear, as a series of disturbances at the jet stream level move across New England, bringing high altitude clouds that will dim the sun from time to time, but overall the day should be remembered as bright and a bit brisk - with highs only in the lower 60's south and 50's north.
This weekend, high pressure moves just east of New England - south of Nova Scotia - and this will allow light southwest winds to gradually funnel milder air in from the nation's midsection, bringing most of us into the 70's on Saturday, and to the middle and upper 70's by Sunday afternoon. Early next week, a new shot of cool air will slide southeast toward the Canadian Maritimes, and actually help to nudge the high pressure center closer to New England. While this should ensure we stay dry through early next week, winds may come out of the east as a result, blowing in off of the autumn-cooling ocean waters. This would keep temperatures a few degrees cooler on Monday and Tuesday across New England - hanging in the lower 70's on average, and cooler at the coast.
By late next week, there are signs that lots of tropical moisture will gather off the Southeast U.S. coastline, and may try to sneak northward. This will spell a hefty shot of rain for some folks along the East Coast, but there is still question as to just how far north that moisture will come. It's possible that we'll turn warmer and more humid by the end of next week, then find rain sneaking into the Northeast U.S. from the south.
In the tropics, we're watching a couple of areas of thunderstorms, but none that are organized. An area of disturbed weather south of Cuba was investigated by hurricane hunter aircraft yesterday, but no center of circulation was found, and that area remains disorganized as of Friday morning, though may persist and develop by early next week. Another tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles remains disorganized as well...but we'll be keeping a close eye!
Technical Discussion: See below.
Have a wonderful weekend, friends!
Matt
Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Friday, September 30 at 8:40 AM
Temps tumbled in the metro areas almost equal to the suburbs last night thanks to active and cold advecting wind. Wind has slackened and will be light across all of NewEng today - a few strung out vorticity maximums moving overhead are racing thru the jet stream winds and will bring periods of cirrus clouds to NewEng, most of those thin enough for the sun to still do its work. Chilly airmass but light WNW wind allows for some weak downsloping and this will aid in temp rebound except across far North in Mountains where highs hold in the 50's.
With light winds, clear skies and low dewpoints tonight, temps will tumble in valleys. Frost across most of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, and likely sneaking into Western and Central Massachusetts Valleys, as well as the deeper valleys of Western Connecticut where decoupling will bring dewpoints in the mid 30's even lower. Fog in the warmer valleys of Eastern MA and the remainder of Southern NewEng.
Fog and stratus should burn off quickly Saturday and with high pressure moving E of NewEng, SW wind takes hold. By Sunday, new high builds SE from Canada and merges with primary high east of NewEng, with the merged anticyclone pulling west underneath the upper level ridging. This will keep winds very light with seabreeze circulation likely to setup on Sunday, but by Monday and Tuesday it looks like high re-establishes over Northern New England and this keeps and easterly flow into most areas, so have undercut guidance given possibility of penetrating easterly flow and some cool advection possible around the front side of the high and wrapping back into NewEng.
Steady indications for several days now among Ensemble and Operational guidance of an inverted trough developing along the Eastern Seaboard by the middle of next week. Tropical moisture begins to pool off the SE US coast late this weekend and slides north into the Mid-Atlantic through the first half of next week. By midweek, a digging trough drops down into the Upper Great Lakes and then into the Ohio Valley. This sets up developing meridional flow, breaking down the western side of the huge Atlantic-Central US connected ridge. The net result should be to open the door to tropical moisture to stream northward up the Eastern Seaboard during the middle to end of next week, with the energetic northern stream shortwave providing enough focus and forcing for heavy precip amounts from the Eastern Great Lakes...possibly into NewEng if we can hold the tropical connection this far north. This also means we'll have to watch carefully for any tropical disturbances that may try to crank up over the next 4-5 days, though at this point the only feature with potential is the disturbed weather by Grand Cayman, which looks as though it will take until Monday or so to really get organized, if it's going to do that at all, and it would likely be too far south to be something we'd need to watch in the short-term here. Still, even without a developed tropical system, if the rich moisture supply comes north, we'll still be measuring rain in inches for many spots by Thursday.
Have a great weekend - great to be back online with you.
Matt
