Welcome to the weather blog! While the web address has changed, the blog will still be the same Monday through Friday discussion - with some improvements! Over the course of the next few weeks and months, you'll find me experimenting and adding new features. Maps, pictures, and other multimedia are enhancements I'm hoping to be able to make as I learn more about how to maximize the new site. Format will be similar to the old version - you'll find a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. If no technical discussion is available when you check in during the morning, check back later as it often comes after the Weather Summary - I try to indicate at the end of the general weather summary when/if a technical discussion is coming. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
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Matt's Weather Summary:
We are issuing constant updates regarding risk for flooding of Taunton, MA, from potential Whittenton Dam break along Mill River on NECN. Please follow our broadcasts for these updates.
With regard to our regional New England weather, the overall pattern of the jet stream has changed significantly from what it was this past weekend. The jet stream is the fast river of air aloft in the atmosphere that steers our storm systems and acts as a thermostat, separating cool air to the north, from warmer air to the south, and for most of last week, these winds were siphoning warm and moist air aloft from the Tropical Atlantic into New England. The recent shift in the jet stream winds has brough a pattern that flows from Northwestern Canada to New England - which keeps energetic but fast moving storm centers diving across New England through the week, each delivering a shot of slightly cooler air but none through Saturday delivering anywhere near the amount of rain we saw this past weekend.
The first fast-moving jet stream disturbance to affect us brought showers to New England this morning. As it continues its push eastward, it will help to kick out the large storm east of Maine that brought the widespread heavy weekend rain and gusty winds to begin the week. As this new disturbance moves east and pulls its attendant showers north and east - settling across Northern New England with clouds and a few showers through Tuesday afternoon - drier air bringing sunshine to the Southern Tier of New York Tuesday morning will continue to move east and break the clouds for midday and afternoon sunshine in much of Southern New England from west to east. West to southwest winds will gust over 20 mph in most of Southern New England, bringing a breezy day and helping to usher in the somewhat warmer air.
Wednesday begins with milky sunshine through high-altitude cirrus clouds after a cool and quiet night Tuesday night, but yet another disturbance at the jet stream level will be swooping in from Canada, caught in the fast winds aloft. This means clouds should increase yet again during the day on Wednesday. This time, however, it appears as though there won't be much moisture to squeeze out in Southern New England, and right now I'm thinking most of the showers will fall across Northern New England late Wednesday through Wednesday night. With this disturbance dragging a cold front through New England at the surface...enough cold air should be in place by late Wednesday night into Thursday morning for snow to fall in Northern New England - from Northern Vermont into Central and Northern Maine, and probably not just in the moutaintops, but at our bases as well! At this point, it's not looking too significant - just a sure sign that winter's not far away.
For the rest of us, the passage of Wednesday Night's cold front may be mostly dry, but it still marks the leading edge to a reinforcing shot of cool air that will bring breezy and brisk conditions on Thursday. In this fast flow of weather disturbances, clouds will thicken again later Friday with rain showers possible Friday night into Saturday, then a steadier rain on Sunday or Monday as another jet stream disturbance and the associated surface low pressure center move through. The concern for this storm center, is the possibility that a piece of Tropical Storm Wilma - currently south of Cuba and steadily strengthening - may become involved in the storm center, and another heavy rain event may be on the way for late this weekend or early next week. It's still early, though, and I don't like the idea of rain on my weekend anymore than you do, so let's give it time and see what happens.
Technical Discussion: Yesterday's was posted late because it was so long - took me awhile to write! I'll freshen it up, and if I have time I'll add more at the top later today, but my synoptic thinking hasn't changed so for now please reference yesterday's technical discussion found in the archives at left.
Have a wonderful day.
Matt
Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Tuesday, October 18 at 2:00 PM
A freshened up re-post of yesterday since many of you missed it due to the late post.
Transition to fast flow is underway as upper low east of Maine will pull east and decay while broad weestern ridge/eastern trough pattern sets up across the northern tier of the US. Caught in the fast jet stream flow will be multiple energetic shortwaves that will dive SE across NewEng the next several days, with the amount and intensity of precip they produce dependent largely on available low-level moisture. This broad northeast troughing will persist until the middle to end of the last week of October as lower heights are left in the wake of the current large cyclone and serve as a sink for shortwaves ejecting east from the monster energy diving over and S of Alaska to create a rather intense Aleutian low. While 500 mb heights will remain anomalously high over Northern and Central Canada, effects of the season are enough to result in building cold air across the higher latitudes. Therefore, as energy ejects east and then southeast across Canada heading for NewEng, it will bring with it installments of cool air through the end of October. Thereafter, signs are for the Aleutian low to weaken but remain intact, keeping ridging across the Intermountain region and weak troughing in the Northeast. But the cold shots over the next two weeks may largely exhaust what's available for cold air in Central Canada, and with high heights in that region, warmth building across the western US may morph into a larger scale near to above normal temperature regime for the US, with the Northeast on the outer fringes and still subject to modified cool shots with our weak persisting trough.
Those are my thoughts on the overall longwave pattern.
Tuesday intense vort and crashing heights cross NewEng. Increased instability with cooling aloft means plenty of clouds thru the day most spots, tho drying aloft works in behind the vort late and some parts of Srn NewEng break clouds to sun. SW wind tries to advect surface warmth but with most of NewEng hard pressed for sunshine, temps will not be eager to rise. Based on forecast of sunshine breaking thru late, we can get 60's Southern NewEng, but 40's and 50's north under day-long clouds North. Most areas of NewEng see showers with period of greatest dynamic forcing and cyclonic vorticity advection from mid-morning thru early to mid-afternoon.
Morning sunshine mixes atmosphere to bring temps back near 60 on average for Wednesday, but I'm not buying widespread mid 60's MOS guidance is touting just yet. Too much chill comes in behind Tuesday's shortwave to retreat it so quickly even with warm advection ahead of Wednesday night's shortwave. My initial thinking was that, without much moisture available, we may even see a dry frontal passage in Southern NewEng but I'm reconsidering give 850 Theta-E shows plume of moisture straight out of the Pacific comes across Plains and OH Valley and interacts with front. This moist tongue may penetrate far enough northeast to produce precip. Farther north, enough energy for strong forcing to crank out rain showers that will change to snow showers later Wednesday night into Thu AM along the Canadian border. Thursday morning an extended period of snow showers is likely in Northern NewEng with the combination of a shot of cool air to the tune of -6 C at 850 mb and upslope flow. Otherwise, downsloping combined with drying brings the sun back out in Southern NewEng and along the coastal plain.
Looks like sun's back on Fri AM, but next in the line of shortwaves is ready to truck into NewEng Friday night into Sat - so clouds increase late Fri and rain develops Fri Ngt and lasts off and on thru Sat. This may not be the innocuous shower event it appears to be at first glance - this energy is the remnant of the UL low over Southern CA today, and will feed off of it's own moisture that it's currently pumping in from the Pacific. With such a fast and active flow in the Northern stream, there is every opportunity for this Southern stream low to merge with one of the energetic shortwaves embedded in the northern flow. In fact, multiple Ensemble members are picking up on this possibility and cranking out a heavy rain event for most of NewEng Saturday into Sunday as ridging amplifies over the Rockies. This amplification relates back to the strengthening Aleutian low mentioned at the start of this discussion - with an amplified Eastern Pacific trof, the Rockies ridge has no choice but to amplify in response. Following this longwave pattern, this favors a pulse deepening of the SE Canada/Ern US trof, which will allow for yet another storm to crank up vicinity NE US. Canadian Ensembles also keying in on this potential and are likely significantly underforecasting potential QPF amounts at this early juncture, marking the axis of heaviest precip from SE NY to Nrn ME with .50", but right now I'd throw that amount away, because this will either be a non-event, or a heavy QPF event and I think we're only seeing the beginning of what will be a wet and wild trend.
Part of the reason for this expected trend is that we, of course, we have Wilma to contend with, and perhaps not just Wilma. Given time constraints, I will bypass a complete tropical discussion on Wilma and the other tropical features, but we have two areas of disturbed weather that I'm most interested in over the Tropical Atlantic - one northeast of Puerto Rico and the other east of the Leeward Islands. As for Wilma, even if she passes over Honduras and is degraded - which I'm not sure will be the case given that her center lay to the north of the deep convection - while she would be torn apart she would come back over the still-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and a strike on the Northern Gulf coast...at this point...seems like a pretty decent solution given the repetitive shortwaves diving into the Lower MS Valley by this weekend with the only-just-begun-to-amplify trough (just getting going Saturday). Additionally, the ridge holding firm over the Central Atlantic will not allow the circulations mentioned above to move northward and away from the US - they have two choices this week by the Leeward Islands: 1) Decay and become a non-player, 2) Move westward. At least one of these circulations should move west and hold together, if not both, though they may have different compositions, as the circulation northeast of the islands currently is non-tropical aloft and only now trying to spin up deeper convection from time to time and failing. This upper low looks unfavorable to become tropical right now, though it has an extremely important role in enhancing outflow on the northeast side of Wilma, which is so impressive it's resulting in convective bands removed well NW of her center. There are two waves located east of the Leeward Islands that are moving west, and indications are that as the leading wave encounters the upper low mentioned above, it will slow and the second wave will be the feature of concern. Though by the time this feature moves far enough west to become a player it may be too late...then again, it may not.
Too late for what? As mentioned above, Wilma looks like eventually she is going to have to come north with a weakness developing in the ridge north and northwest of her. The problem is that as she starts to come north the trough deepening explained above is already underway from the Great Lakes to the northeast. Remember what we've reviewed in these discussions in the past - deepening upper lows will serve as a sink when the pattern becomes amplified. The concern here is that the developing upper low becomes a sink ready to pull Wilma - and perhaps the additional wave east of the Leeward Islands - north/northeast and northwest, respectively. Whether this all happens at once, or one piece at a time it is too early to say, but one would have to think whatever is left of Wilma is not going to be able to ride due north over or west of the Appalachians with the height falls that will be occurring over the Ern US, and instead will have to come north to the Gulf coast, hook northeast, then would feel the effects of the Northeast upper level sink, perhaps pulling the aforementioned wave in as she curls around or over the Southeastern US.
