Welcome to the weather blog! While the web address has changed, the blog will still be the same Monday through Friday discussion - with some improvements! Over the course of the next few weeks and months, you'll find me experimenting and adding new features. Maps, pictures, and other multimedia are enhancements I'm hoping to be able to make as I learn more about how to maximize the new site. Format will be similar to the old version - you'll find a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. If no technical discussion is available when you check in during the morning, check back later as it often comes after the Weather Summary - I try to indicate at the end of the general weather summary when/if a technical discussion is coming. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net
Matt's Weather Summary: Rainfall has been breaking up in many areas Tuesday morning as of this writing, but will fill back in for most of us through the day. The center of low pressure will continue moving from south of New England, across Cape Cod, and into the Central Maine coastline through Tuesday. Here's what I'm expecting with this storm:
Mild air has surged northward ahead of the storm center to the east of a stationary front that's serving as a pathway for this storm, and Cape Cod will remain near 60 until the storm moves past and winds swing around to the west. In addition, the Cape will see winds gusting to over 45 mph with passage of the storm through late afternoon, when temperatures will fall back into the 40's quickly with the wind shift. These winds won't be enough to cause damage, but will blow light objects around the yard. Most of the remainder of New England will deal with periodic rain - some of it heavy - through the morning and mid-afternoon with breezy and raw conditions. You can follow the rain, as everyday, on my main webpage at www.mattnoyes.net. In Vermont and even the higher terrain of Western MA, enough cold air will move in Tuesday afternoon for rain to change to snow, and this cold air will move into the White Mountains by Tuesday evening. Once it begins to snow, it will snow hard, especially in the Green Mountains where snowfall rates may exceed one inch per hour! So, while the snow tapers tonight, I'm still expecting over half a foot in the higher terrain of Northern Vermont, with 3-5 inches and locally higher amounts for the remainder of the Green Mountains along Route 100, and into the Northern White Mountains through Northern Grafton, Northern Carroll and Coos county. The cold air will move into the Mountains of Maine Tuesday evening, where a few inches of snow are likely to fall. Finally, the remainder of Maine will see heavy rain through most of Tuesday, along with winds at the Central and Eastern Maine shoreline that will gust over 65 mph, and in fact, a few locales will probably see winds gusting to hurricane force - at or above 74 mph. Certainly these winds will be sufficient to cause damage to trees, powerlines, and roof shingles of homes along the immediate coastline.
Snow will gradually taper in the mountains Tuesday night while the remainder of New England sees gradual clearing and chilly, breezy conditions. This chilly air sticks around for Wednesday, when most of New England will find plenty of high-altitude cirrus clouds riding overhead, but the day will be dry with filtered sunshine and temperatures stuck in the 30's across the board. This cold airmass will allow temperatures to fall well below freezing Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, a significant swirling center of energy will be dropping southward out of Canada and across the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours. This energy is actually the heart of cold air - which has been swirling near the North Pole for the past few weeks - and will bodily move across New England for the end of the week. While bone-chilling cold air is found with this swirling "vortex", the counterclockwise flow of air around it will usher warm air northward Wednesday night and Thursday morning, and as this warmer and more moist air crashes into our cold airmass, clouds and precipitation will be the result. With temperatures in most spots well below freezing Thursday morning, this will mean snow for most of New England Thanksgiving morning. Disturbances like these often come devoid of much moisture, but as the low level winds turn onshore, more moisture will be drawn in off the Atlantic. The result should be a couple of inches of snow Thursday morning in most of New England, with lesser amounts possible along the immediate coastline, where ocean waters still near 50 will bring warmer air to the seashore. At some point in the development of this storm center, a heavier band of snow is likely to develop. While pinpointing this heavier band is tricky and depends heavily on where the intense upper level moisture and feed of low-level Atlantic moisture meet, at this point it appears to me that most of the State of Maine, and the White Mountains of New Hampshire would be most likely to receive heavier snowfall amounts, and it's quite possible amounts under this band - wherever it should set up - will exceed half a foot.
Regardless, Thursday night brings the cold air associated with this strong disturbance, and temperatures across Northern New England will dip to near zero in some locales, while most of New England bottoms out in the teens! This sets us up for a cold day on Friday with sunshine between plenty of clouds that will pop up underneath the slowing center of energy overhead. A few snow showers and heftier snow squalls will be possible in the mountains of New England.
At this point, it looks like dry weather should persist through the rest of the weekend as an area of high pressure moves over New England. Our next potential storm system approaches for the beginning of next week - likely on Tuesday - with rain and snow overspreading New England.
Indications to me are that this below to much below normal temperature regime...and higher than normal threats for coastal storms...will continue through the first half of December!
Enjoy your Tuesday. I'll post Wednesday and then will likely have limited internet access through the holiday weekend, so after tomorrow, I will likely not post again until Monday.
Matt
Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Tuesday, November 22 at 1:00 PM
Afternoon burst of precip to be just as heavy and in some spots heavier than overnight rains as diffluence on northern periphery of low wraps across NewEng. This is conjunction with the jet streak mentioned in yesterday's technical discussion that keeps the rain going longer than guidance had progged. Intense thunderstorm activity under the upper low in NJ is finally weakening as it shifts NE and upper low interacts with well defined broad surface circulation on radar imagery, and with this interaction, surface center continues to deepen.
I won't go off on all the storm details since I think we're pretty close with the forecast I laid out here yesterday for this creature. Most areas: Breezy and raw but rain falls heavily enough for street flooding/ponding of water and may see some small streams rise out of their banks. Cape Cod: Gusts to 45 mph still possible with passage of low, and I've now been mentioning possible localized damaging gusts as thunderstorm activity has been plentiful at times with the upper low and if we see thunder, air over Outer Cape and Islands well mixed and warm, so surface inversion that protected Groton, CT, from what would have been a damaging bow segment this morning will not be in place and all thunderstorms that move over these warmer areas need to be monitored carefully. Mountains: Cold air has been slow to progress SE but that's not a real surprise, and signs are it's on the move now as NW winds kick in and temps/dewpoints are dropping across Northern NY. Once we go to snow, it's whiteout conditions in the Green Mountains late afternoon into evening as deformation band shifts east and sets up over this area to combine with upslope flow. 1" per hour snows or perhaps even more intense in some areas with ample moisture, tightening baroclinic zone in the lower levels, falling heights providing for deep instability, and diffluence aloft. 5-8" overall northern Greens, but these amounts will be exceeded in higher terrain. 3-5" Central Greens into White Mountains, where snow changeover in NH Mountains doesn't occur until later this eve. A few inches in Mountains of Maine. Speaking of Maine: Still looks to be a significant wind event with scattered to widespread coastal damage from Penobscot Bay eastward where cranked up 970ish mb low slams into coast. Coastal communities already in the 50's with warm air in place and coastal front established - this coastal front focuses heavy rains and the warm air allows the forecasted 65+ mph gusts to mix down to ground level, and still think a hurricane force gust is possible Penobscot Bay points east. This is enough for damage to trees and lines, as well as shingle damage to houses on the coast - especially on coastal cliffs.
Not much change to my thinking for a quiet Wednesday. Thursday's thoughts were laid out extensively yesterday and please reference the archives at left if you'd like a refresher, but my thinking is similar to yesterday. I'm willing to quantify as a widespread 2-4" snowfall with a band of heavier snow still looking most likely from Maine through the White Mountains (perhaps into NE Kingdom of VT) later in the day on Thanksgiving where over 6" of snow will fall. If ratios are high enough, we'll approach a foot somewhere under this band, but let's give it time before going all out. Models are still overdoing how far inland the boundary layer warmth penetrates from the ocean and it will be only immediate coastal communities that see much effect from this with regard to liquid precip - most of us plenty cold enough for a snow event.
Whatever falls sticks around with temps running around or even slightly below freezing for NewEng average high temps thru Sat - a bit warmer on Sun. Still looking for next coastal storm around Tue.
Have a great Tuesday.
Matt
