Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! You'll find a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. If no technical discussion is available when you check in during the morning, check back later as it often comes after the Weather Summary - I try to indicate at the end of the general weather summary when/if a technical discussion is coming. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll occasionally issue special updates when the weather warrants. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net
Matt's Weather Summary: Quite a test from nature today across New England. The strong upper level storm system we've been watching together for the past few days is moving into New England and brought morning squalls to many areas. Now, drier air has moved into New England and has brought the sunshine out for many communities, though there are some important exceptions to the rule. Along the Berkshires and the spine of the Green Mountains, westerly winds pushing up against the mountainfaces are resulting in bands of snow that will accumulate for these mountain communities. You can follow these bands of snow by watching the radar, linked from my main webpage. The other exception is along the coast of Maine, where the much advertised "Norlun Trough" (see yesterday's discussion for a more detailed explanation of the Norlun Trough) has developed between Casco and Penobscot Bays, centered over coastal Knox and Lincoln Counties. This trough has mostly developed offshore, and that's where a large area of heavy snow will fall, but the northern edge of this heavier snow will continue backing into these coastal locales. Due to the localized nature of these bands, it's strongly encouraged that Coastal Maine residents also monitor radar imagery. Elsewhere in New England, the upper level pattern is a cold and wintry looking one, while the surface pattern will remain rather mild and allow temperatures to rise into the middle and upper 30's. When we see a mismatched atmosphere like this, the result is always that air has to move - either horizontally (wind) or vertically (clouds and precipitation). In this case, a large amount of the atmosphere's energy will likely go into creating scattered snow showers and heavier snow squalls Wednesday afternoon - with a presentation very similar to summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms. With most areas above freezing, this will help to mitigate icing potential on roadways, but in heavier squalls, brief icing will remain possible.
With a persistent flow of northwest winds Wednesday night - and a steady stream of disturbances caught in the jet stream winds aloft, diving from Canada and settling into the slow and energetic disturbance that will be prodding east of New England while bringing continued snow showers and squalls to the mountains - cold air situated in Central Canada will finally be tapped, and begin to charge southeast. By Thursday morning, expect the cold air to be moving into place here at ground level, as it catches up with the precursor wintry cold pattern aloft. Thursday will begin with lots of clouds and continuing snow showers in the mountains, though most of New England will break out sunshine during the day. By far, the biggest weather feature for Thursday will be the active northwest wind, which will be sustained up to 30 mph at times and is likely to gust to 35 or 40 mph, especially on hilltops and along the coastal plain.
The workweek rounds out on Friday with a blend of sun and clouds for the daylight hours as New England finds ourselves sandwiched between the large and energetic storm departing slowly to our east, and a new bundle of energy the jet stream winds will be driving in our direction from the Central Plains. This new disturbance will spread clouds and precipitation over New England Friday evening and night, as a slug of warmth and moisture riding northward in the counterclockwise airflow around this approaching disturbance clashes with the cool air that will already be in place in New England, resulting in a few Friday night snow and rain showers, primarily in the mountains and across the North Country.
The upcoming weekend is likely to begin rather benign on Saturday, though a cold front will be sinking southward out of Canada and into Northern New England. This cold front will be important for a few reasons - 1) It will bring lots of clouds to New England on Saturday morning, then slide those clouds southward through the rest of New England later in the day, 2) It may come accompanied by additional Saturday morning rain and snow showers across Northern New England, 3) It will mark the leading edge to cooler air settling into our area. Though it's still somewhat uncertain just how far south this cold front settles by Sunday, it appears to me that it is likely to push completely through New England Saturday night. Meanwhile, a strong bundle of energy associated with a storm currently bringing rains to the Southwestern U.S. will be moving east across the nation. Ahead of this disturbance, caught in the counter-clockwise flow of air, will be a flow of warm air moving north toward New England on southerly winds. The most likely scenario is for this incoming warm air to collide with the cold air that will have just settled over our region, and the result will be increasing and thickening clouds on Sunday. By Sunday evening, it appears right now that snow will develop across New England from southwest to northeast. With plenty of warmth and moisture streaming into New England determining the progression of a rain/snow line is difficult this far out. Regardless, the pattern at this point seems to feature a mostly snow event for the mountains of Northern New England, and likely a snow to rain event for interior Southern New England. But remember, it's early and we'll see how this evolves.
Happy Hump Day!
Technical Discussion: Far behind today, so will have to pass, but tomorrow looks more promising...
Matt
