Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net
Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis (New!): A strengthening storm moving north of New England on Friday will drag its associated strong cold front across New England, swinging a line of downpours and embedded thunder through New England mid-morning (west) through early-afternoon (east). Winds will blow at 20-40 mph with gusts over 65 mph Friday afternoon, and this will be enough wind for damage to tree limbs and power lines, and storm warnings are up for most coastal waters. Rain will change to afternoon snow across Northern New England, where a couple of inches will fall in the higher terrain while the remainder of New England dries out behind the downpours but continues to see damaging winds. Cold air comes screaming into New England on these winds, with a bitter Friday night giving way to a windy and frigid Saturday, though winds are likely to be below damaging criteria over the weekend. A reinforcing shot of cold air during the day on Saturday will carry snow squalls from the Canadian border to northern Massachusetts, producing reduced visibility and leaving slick spots on some roadways in its wake. Cold conditions continue through Sunday, and a weak disturbance may bring light snow late Monday after increasing clouds. Thickening clouds are in the forecast again for later Tuesday, with another chance of snow Tuesday night. Enjoy your weekend - see you back here on Monday! -Matt
General Weather Summary: Late update due to lots of weather coverage here at NECN - please tune in for the latest on this unfolding damaging wind event.
The counter-clockwise flow of air around a strengthening area of low pressure moving north of New England will drag a fierce cold front across New England from west to east on Friday. Early breaks of sunshine in Eastern New England will fade as a line of rapidly moving downpours with perhaps some embedded thunder charge east across New England from mid-morning (west) to early afternoon (east) along and ahead of this approaching cold front. Expect winds to be gusty ahead of the front from the southwest, then shift to the west behind the front, sustained (steady) at 20-40 mph with gusts over 65 mph at times, strong enough to down tree limbs, trees and power lines. Reported gusts this morning from Rochester and Syracuse have been 75 and 77 mph, respectively, and localized gusts greater than 70 mph certainly will be a possibility through New England on Friday. The strongest winds with the highest threat for damage come behind the lines of downpours (some areas are likely to see two rounds - monitor radar from my homepage to track these areas of rain) centered from early afternoon through suppertime. These howling winds will be carrying cold air back into New England - a chunk of deep arctic air that has been consistently producing temperatures of -30 to -40 degrees along and north of the Canadian border for the past several days. Though the air certainly will modify on its travel into New England, there is no question this will be a mighty cold airmass.
After a couple of inches of fresh snow Friday afternoon into Friday night across the mountains of Northern New England thanks to arctic cold air spilling in and squeezing moisture out of the atmosphere, winds will remain gusty into and through Saturday. Though the air will be dry enough for Saturday morning sunshine, and it will be plenty cold at the surface, the air aloft will be even more frigid, and this will make the atmosphere "unstable" - favorable for clouds and precipitation to develop. The result should be billowing clouds mixing with sunshine through the day, and as an upper level disturbance at the jet stream level dives into New England, it will push a reinforcing shot of arctic chill southward at the surface. This second cold front will spawn Saturday morning and afternoon snow squalls from north to south, respectively, reducing visibility and creating slick road conditions as they move through...with a few of these likely reaching as far south as the Massachusetts Turnpike Saturday afternoon. Winds will gust up to 50 mph Saturday afternoon, which is near but just below damaging criteria, and this wind combined with the brutally cold temperatures will bring wind chill values into the single digits in Southern New England and below zero across the north!
With the center of this cold high pressure cell still moving closer to us on Sunday, expect actual temperatures to be even colder! Winds will abate somewhat, however, (though still breezy) and this will help conditions to feel a *little* more bearable. Enough dry air will be in place - and no strong upper level disturbances are expected - that most areas can plan on a dry blend of sunshine and a few clouds.
The pattern for early next week is likely to turn a little more favorable for snow here in New England, as our cold airmass releases its grip a bit, allowing warmer and more moist air to move toward us, bringing a higher chance of snow. Additionally, as low level and surface winds come onshore, we will input Atlantic moisture to our arctic airmass, and this often is favorable to increase chances for snow. Finally, a storm center will be passing south of New England, and while the exact track of the low pressure center is still in question, there is a chance for at least the northern extent of this snow shield to reach into New England.
Next update Monday morning - see you then!
Technical Discussion: None today. See you Monday.
Matt
