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Gradually a Bit Wamer and a Bit Less Windy...Plowable Snow for Many on Thursday...Cold Returns for Weekend Before Another Potential Storm Next Week

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Another day of chilly sunshine across most of New England as a storm system parked well to our northeast continues to spin in place while gradually weakening.  The result will be continued busy winds, though less intense than Monday, with gusts to 25-30 mph, teaming up with continued cold temperatures for a nippy feel.  Most areas will enjoy sunshine, though most of Maine will be in and out of clouds as we were yesterday, with these clouds spinning southward from the aforementioned storm in Eastern Canada.  A fast-moving but moisture starved disturbance will eject southward out of Canada Tuesday night, bringing variable cloud cover south, and mountain flurries north.  Another quiet day is in store for New England on Wednesday, as we'll be sandwiched between Tuesday night's departing disturbance, and a much stronger storm moving east across the Midwest.  This approaching storm comes from roots in the Pacific Ocean, and has dumped several inches of rain and several feet of snow on the West Coast over the last two days.  This moisture-laden and energetic storm will cross New England on Thursday, with snow developing Wednesday night after midnight, and continuing into Thursday.  At this point, a widespread plowable snow (3" or greater) appears likely in many areas by the time the storm winds down, with a band of higher amounts possible, especially through interior locales (see map below).  There is also the possibility of lesser amounts farther south in New England, where enough mild air may nose in to mix with or change to sleet and rain for a time.  By Friday, northerly breezes behind the departing storm will bring in one installment of cooler air, and another arctic surge appears en route for the weekend.  Have a great Fat Tuesday!  -Matt

Early Thoughts on Thursday Snow (check in for updates, though...still some time to go on this one):

Accums_neweng_1

Weather Summary coming later, as usual.

General Weather Summary:  With a stalled and gradually weakening storm loadged northeast of New England, winds will continue to be active from the west-northwest on Tuesday, and cold air will remain locked in place.  While the gradually weakening state of this storm will mean slightly less wind than Monday with gusts to 25 or 30 mph rather than 35 mph, and slightly warmer temperatures nearing 30 in a few communities, a chill will certainly still be felt for all who spend an extended period of time outdoors. Northwest winds extend upward, deep into the atmosphere above us, and this means that any disturbances to affect New England - for now - will be dropping south out of Canada.  A morning analysis shows one of these energetic disturbances "upstream" to our northwest, ready to dive over New England Tuesday night as it becomes caught in the fast flow from the northwest.  Because it's originating in Canada, this disturbance is moisture-starved, and will bring little more than passing clouds and mountain snow showers as it moves overhead Tuesday night.

With one disturbance moving away from us, and the next still hundreds of miles to our west, Wednesday will bring much lighter winds and a continued gradual moderation in temperatures.  Meanwhile, several inches of rain and several feet of snow have been falling the past two days along the Pacific Coast and mountains of the Western United States.  Heavy rains have fallen in Los Angeles with this storm, and residents of Phoenix, Arizona, will be turned skyward in search of the first raindrops in 132 days on Tuesday as a strong Pacific storm system barrels its way inland.  This moisture-laden system will eject a piece of energy eastward across the U.S., and the associated surface storm center will move through New England on Thursday. 

As with this past weekend's disturbance, the exact track of the storm will make a large difference regarding where the heaviest precipitation falls.  Regardless, as warmer and more moist air surges north in association with this approaching storm and collides with our cold airmass, snow is likely to develop for many areas after midnight Wednesday night.  Given the surge of warmth and moisture associated with this system of Pacific Ocean origins, it's likely to snow heavily at times in many areas late Wednesday night through Thursday morning.  Though some variation is still possible, the most likely scenario takes a strengthening storm center into Southeast New York State by Thursday morning, then shifts energy to a new storm center that will take shape immediately south of Cape Cod.  At the surface, this means winds will blow from the southeast in advance of the approaching storm, which will slowly bring warmer air in from the Atlantic Ocean.  Eventually, if enough warm air comes into play, a mix or change to sleet or rain would be possible in far Southern New England, though right now I wouldn't count on a widespread mix or changeover.  Unlike the last storm, fluffy snow will be confined mainly to Northern New England, while the remainder of us will see a heavier, wetter snowfall. - and this also will cut back on amounts.  I've posted a map of my initial thoughts in the Synopsis above, but keep in mind a few things:  1) Storm track still is subject to change, which would bodily shift the corridor of highest amounts, though I don't see a significant shift in track as likely at this point, and 2) The amount of warm air that moves in will be critical to snowfall amounts.  Areas of Southern NH, Southern VT, and Northern MA stand the best chance of seeing the combination of somewhat fluffier snow with plentiful moisture, and these are the areas most at risk for either side of a 6" snowfall, but there is still plenty of time to fine tune this.

After our Thursday snow, cold northerly winds take hold behind the departing and strengthening storm, and these winds will usher in cold and dry air - helpful in bringing the sun out for Friday, but also likely to hold daytime high temperatures in the upper 20's to around 30 for most areas.  By Saturday, a stronger northerly flow will set in behind a reinforcing cold front, and the result will likely be weather equally cold to the beginning of this week, in place just in time for the weekend.

Looking farther out in time, the weather pattern continues to indicate potential strong storm development in the early to middle part of next week, as a strong storm south of Alaska - over the Aleutian Islands - breaks down this weekend and ejects east and across the nation.  At the same time, the stalled storm to our northeast that's been keeping a northwest flow of wind relaxes, and this would allow the new energetic storm to move to the East Coast, where it would be likely to develop into a more potent system - chock full of wind and likely to spell at least a week-long temporary end to deep cold here in the Northeast, which would mean milder weather after the storm...from roughly March 8 to March 14.  Thereafter, early signs are that at least somewhat colder than normal weather may return for a time.

Have a great Tuesday!

Technical Discussion:  Probably not today with lots going on here at the station, but I'm reposting below what I posted late yesterday afternoon, in case you missed it due to the late post.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Reposted from Monday, February 27 at 3:20 PM

Warm advection clouds across ME/NH/parts of NE MA today are the result of warm air wrapped all the way around the north side of storm circulation to our northeast and another burst of these is possible later Tuesday as polar vortex throws warmer air southward aloft.  A strange reality, I know, but this is what happens when you get a wound up storm bombing northeast of NewEng during a strong Greenland block and developing strong negative NAO.

I'm going to broadbrush the short-term in favor of focusing on the medium range and longer range forecasts today...and the broad strokes paint an eastward moving shortwave moving over NewEng Mon Ngt and bringing snow showers with it - esp Nrn MA point N - with a dusting of accum possible given a couple of hundreths that output on esp SUNYSB MM5 and WRF.

Good mixing Tuesday will team with downslope flow and sunshine for at least most of the day away from warm advection clouds from the north to bring temps into the 20's most areas Central and South.  Wed features a westward retrogression of the polar vortex and this is an important shift as it dictates where the storm currently slamming the west coast with copious amounts of rain and snow will be steered.

In fact, using this pattern shift, we could determine that the NAM solution for the track of Thursday's shortwave - our first stopping point in the medium range - was initially likely much too far north as it took the shortwave over Central and Northern NewEng, but the new 12Z position is more in line with the remainder of the operational models and likely more on target.  There are a few things to keep in mind with this shortwave:  1) It is the composite of northern and southern stream energy, but really is a reincarnation of the storm over the West Coast Monday afternoon, which splits north and south and then comes together again over the Western Great Lakes, 2) When the new merged vorticity maximum moves through the northeast on Thu, remember its origin - it has come from moisture-laden beginnings bringing rain from SEA to LAX on Monday, and feet of snow to the CA mountains, 3) It is cresting a thermal ridge of tremendous warmth - some 20 to 25 C at 850 mb over the Central and Southern Plains, and this sets up a tremendous baroclinic zone with the cold air shoved south of the polar vortex, 4) The surface low will be strengthening as it moves in a path that...according to progged 500 mb and 700 mb flow...should take it immediately south of NewEng as it races E.

Once again this leaves us with a storm that we wonder whether it will be able to generate a closed circulation and add ocean moisture, but this time it's not nearly as important to do this as it was with the weekend system.  Remember that in this discussion you and I considered the importance of this ocean inflow for the past weekend storm, and we knew that where an easterly flow could establish, the higher snowfall and QPF would be, and that was likely to set up on the northern side of the circulation.  We needed that moisture this weekend to offset what was otherwise a bone-dry atmosphere.  Though the air is dry currently, by Thursday the situation will be quite different, as this storm comes of Pacific origin - carrying its own moisture.  For snow lovers, that's a good thing because indications right now are somewhat iffy on whether it could get its act together quickly enough to incorporate Atlantic moisture, largely owing to its very fast progression eastward.  Nonetheless, this system of moist origins will carry a southerly llvl jet east into NewEng late Wed Ngt into Thu, and this will again result in a band of snow, heavy at times, into Thu across most of Southern and Central NewEng, and likely spreading into Nrn NewEng as well, esp given lingering trough and SE sfc flow in place.  Remember that with this past weekend's event, there was a fairly well-defined southern cutoff to the plowable snowfall amounts - that is the nature of a system that is relying heavily upon a surge of warmth and moisture colliding with a cold airmass - south of the collision there will be a sharp drop in precip amounts.  This will be the case again with the upcoming storm, but indications are that most areas should end up under this enhanced baroclinicity.  So, once again a shot of plowable snows appears en route for NewEng late Wed Ngt into Thu.

Thereafter, with northwest flow the weather may quiet down for a few days, but this is likely to only be the calm before the storm that will break the back of the deep cold for a time, if not for the rest of winter.  Consistent indications for several days have been coming back for a few things to happen around March 6-7.  The first is that the polar vortex lets go of Eastern Canada and shifts north and northeast, diminishing the confluent flow that has kept disturbances moving so quickly across us.  The second is that...in response to this shift and a weakening of the Greenland Block, the NAO approaches neutral.  Historically, when we see the NAO shift from strongly negative to near-neutral or slightly positive, this can signal a large storm development near the Northeastern US.  Add to this the fact that a strong Pacific shortwave will be traversing the country - the leftover heart of the Aleutian low spinning south of Alaska today - into a less confluent flow over the Northeastern US but still confluent enough over Nova Scotia to hold cold high pressure to our NE, and we have a recipe for a strong storm.  Additionally, the operational models continue to key in on this time period for storm development, which can add further confidence to a forecast of a large storm in this time period.  Behind the storm, it does appear heights rise dramatically, which tells me two things: 1) The storm will likely be a strong one, as this is evidence of the amount of warmth and moisture available to it from the southern stream and the resultant baroclinicity, and 2) This strong storm will lead the northeast into a spring-like pattern for what is likely to be at least a week, taking us to around March 13-14.  Thereafter, while the deep cold will be exhausted, cold locked in Siberia that will have been cut off from migrating eastward (truly it's this bridge to Siberian cold that's been feeding our current cold streak) will be able to slide east into Western and Central Canada again, and renewed cold appears possible sometime after March 14, though not as deep and not for as long a period, it still will be watched carefully as baroclinicity would be a big factor at that point, owing to a significantly higher sun angle.

Needless to say, plenty watch for one and all.  That's all for today.

Matt


Quiet But Cold To Start the Week...

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Monday morning has brought a chill to all of New England, with many areas starting the day within 10 degrees of zero, and an active wind providing additional chill.  Though the cold arctic air is also dry air, and will bring sunshine to most areas to start the new work week, a few clouds sliding south out of Canada will blot out the sun from time to time on a line from the Mount Washington Valley of New Hampshire to Portland, ME, points northeast.  Otherwise, don't let the sunshine fool you!  With winds gusting to 35 mph and frigid temperatures in place, wind chill values will hover in the single digits north and teens south at even the warmest time of the day.  Monday night, a fast moving upper level disturbance slides through New England, providing widespread snow showers for a fresh dusting through particularly interior New England by early Tuesday morning.  This system scoots east quickly on Tuesday morning, however, keeping breezy and chilly, but bright weather in place.  Another weak disturbance may deliver a few more flurries Tuesday night, then once again sunshine returns for Wednesday.  A more potent storm center moving east from the Western U.S. will cross New England on Thursday, bringing widespread snow and perhaps a mix with rain in extreme southern New England.  Behind this storm, fresh winds will usher in another shot of chill for Friday...keeping the entirety of this week a cold a wintry feeling one for us all!  Have a wonderful Monday.  -Matt

General Weather Summary:  After receiving amounts of snow varying from a dusting to a foot of accumulation this weekend across New England, a quieter weather pattern takes hold for the start of our new workweek.  Incidentally, I receive lots of inquiries for snow amounts from folks after storms have passed, and for those of you who are interested, the National Weather Service issues all of their snow spotter reports, completely free of charge anytime snow amounts are greater than 2".  If you find their network dense enough, there's no need to pay for this data elsewhere:  http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/pns.shtml is the address.  I'll add this to my mattnoyes.net web page soon, too.  In the meantime, the weather may be quiet, but quiet won't equate to comfortable as cold arctic air has a firm grip on New England and will team up with an active wind to bring very chilly conditions through Tuesday.

While most of New England can enjoy sunshine between disturbances today, satellite imagery shows an area of clouds drooping southward through Maine and northeastern New Hampshire, and trying to slide farther south along the eastern New England coastline.  These clouds are actually the result of warmer air aloft - that's right, warmer air coming from the north - as storms to our east have become so tightly wound that the counter-clockwise flow of air around them has carried warmer and more moist air all the way around the north side of the storms and back around the back of them.  The clash of this warmer and more moist air with our dry, arctic air, is causing for the clouds.  In most areas under this shield of renegade clouds, sunshine will still be able to break through, and the rest of New England will enjoy blend of golden sunshine.  "Enjoy" may be a rather tame word to use, however, given that temperatures will hold in the teens across Northern New England and in the lower to middle twenties through Southern New England with winds from the west-northwest gusting to 35 mph, creating wind chill values ("feels like" temperatures) in the teens region-wide!

A fast moving, energetic disturbance located across the Central Great Lakes Monday morning will swing overhead through New England overnight Monday night.  This disturbance will bring with it scattered snow showers and flurries, and many residents of interior New England - especially north of the Massachusetts Turnpike - may awaken to a fresh and very light dusting of snow Tuesday morning, with a thicker coating of fluff possible in the higher terrain of Northern New England.  Breezes will remain active Monday night, keeping wind chill values below zero in many communities.

While Tuesday may dawn with lingering clouds and perhaps even a lingering flurry in some areas, sunshine will return along with another day of brisk west-northwest winds, gusting to 25-30 mph at times.  With arctic air slow to let go of New England, temperatures will only climb about 4 or 5 degrees higher than they did on Monday, even with the help of plenty of sunshine.  Expect a virtual repeat Tuesday night into Wednesday - that is, flurries Tuesday night with a fast moving upper level disturbance, followed by sunny but brisk conditions Wednesday, though winds are likely to subside a bit.

Meanwhile, rains and several feet of snow will be falling up and down the West Coast Monday - even raining in Los Angeles - as a strong Pacific storm system barrels its way inland.  This moisture-laden system will eject a piece of energy eastward across the U.S., and the associated surface storm center will move into New England on Thursday.  As with this past weekend's disturbance, the exact track of the storm will make a large difference regarding where the heaviest precipitation falls.  Regardless, as warmer and more moist air surges north in association with this approaching storm, snow is likely to develop for many areas on Thursday.  If enough warm air comes into play, a mix or change to rain would be possible in especially far Southern New England, though right now I wouldn't count on a widespread mix or changeover.

Cold air sticks around through the first 7-10 days of March, as the atmospheric pattern features something special in the world of meteorology...a "Greenland Block."  This is the term meteorologists use to describe a large and stationary area of high pressure that builds across Greenland - well to our east - and because high pressure is generally a fair-weather center, it blocks storms from moving quickly across the North Atlantic.  The result is to keep storms curling north when they move just east of the Canadian Maritimes, and with counter-clockwise flow of air around storms, this keeps an average northerly wind blowing into New England for quite some time.  The result of a pattern like this is for cold conditions to persist, with storms reaching their maximum intensity to our east, rather than over us, but that's not to say storms can't still affect New England - stronger disturbances can occasionally strengthen further as they move overhead and this can produce widespread snows.  A few chances of disturbed weather will remain while this "Greenland Block" holds.

Have a wonderful Monday!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Monday, February 27 at 3:20 PM

Warm advection clouds across ME/NH/parts of NE MA today are the result of warm air wrapped all the way around the north side of storm circulation to our northeast and another burst of these is possible later Tuesday as polar vortex throws warmer air southward aloft.  A strange reality, I know, but this is what happens when you get a wound up storm bombing northeast of NewEng during a strong Greenland block and developing strong negative NAO.

I'm going to broadbrush the short-term in favor of focusing on the medium range and longer range forecasts today...and the broad strokes paint an eastward moving shortwave moving over NewEng Mon Ngt and bringing snow showers with it - esp Nrn MA point N - with a dusting of accum possible given a couple of hundreths that output on esp SUNYSB MM5 and WRF.

Good mixing Tuesday will team with downslope flow and sunshine for at least most of the day away from warm advection clouds from the north to bring temps into the 20's most areas Central and South.  Wed features a westward retrogression of the polar vortex and this is an important shift as it dictates where the storm currently slamming the west coast with copious amounts of rain and snow will be steered.

In fact, using this pattern shift, we could determine that the NAM solution for the track of Thursday's shortwave - our first stopping point in the medium range - was initially likely much too far north as it took the shortwave over Central and Northern NewEng, but the new 12Z position is more in line with the remainder of the operational models and likely more on target.  There are a few things to keep in mind with this shortwave:  1) It is the composite of northern and southern stream energy, but really is a reincarnation of the storm over the West Coast Monday afternoon, which splits north and south and then comes together again over the Western Great Lakes, 2) When the new merged vorticity maximum moves through the northeast on Thu, remember its origin - it has come from moisture-laden beginnings bringing rain from SEA to LAX on Monday, and feet of snow to the CA mountains, 3) It is cresting a thermal ridge of tremendous warmth - some 20 to 25 C at 850 mb over the Central and Southern Plains, and this sets up a tremendous baroclinic zone with the cold air shoved south of the polar vortex, 4) The surface low will be strengthening as it moves in a path that...according to progged 500 mb and 700 mb flow...should take it immediately south of NewEng as it races E.

Once again this leaves us with a storm that we wonder whether it will be able to generate a closed circulation and add ocean moisture, but this time it's not nearly as important to do this as it was with the weekend system.  Remember that in this discussion you and I considered the importance of this ocean inflow for the past weekend storm, and we knew that where an easterly flow could establish, the higher snowfall and QPF would be, and that was likely to set up on the northern side of the circulation.  We needed that moisture this weekend to offset what was otherwise a bone-dry atmosphere.  Though the air is dry currently, by Thursday the situation will be quite different, as this storm comes of Pacific origin - carrying its own moisture.  For snow lovers, that's a good thing because indications right now are somewhat iffy on whether it could get its act together quickly enough to incorporate Atlantic moisture, largely owing to its very fast progression eastward.  Nonetheless, this system of moist origins will carry a southerly llvl jet east into NewEng late Wed Ngt into Thu, and this will again result in a band of snow, heavy at times, into Thu across most of Southern and Central NewEng, and likely spreading into Nrn NewEng as well, esp given lingering trough and SE sfc flow in place.  Remember that with this past weekend's event, there was a fairly well-defined southern cutoff to the plowable snowfall amounts - that is the nature of a system that is relying heavily upon a surge of warmth and moisture colliding with a cold airmass - south of the collision there will be a sharp drop in precip amounts.  This will be the case again with the upcoming storm, but indications are that most areas should end up under this enhanced baroclinicity.  So, once again a shot of plowable snows appears en route for NewEng late Wed Ngt into Thu.

Thereafter, with northwest flow the weather may quiet down for a few days, but this is likely to only be the calm before the storm that will break the back of the deep cold for a time, if not for the rest of winter.  Consistent indications for several days have been coming back for a few things to happen around March 6-7.  The first is that the polar vortex lets go of Eastern Canada and shifts north and northeast, diminishing the confluent flow that has kept disturbances moving so quickly across us.  The second is that...in response to this shift and a weakening of the Greenland Block, the NAO approaches neutral.  Historically, when we see the NAO shift from strongly negative to near-neutral or slightly positive, this can signal a large storm development near the Northeastern US.  Add to this the fact that a strong Pacific shortwave will be traversing the country - the leftover heart of the Aleutian low spinning south of Alaska today - into a less confluent flow over the Northeastern US but still confluent enough over Nova Scotia to hold cold high pressure to our NE, and we have a recipe for a strong storm.  Additionally, the operational models continue to key in on this time period for storm development, which can add further confidence to a forecast of a large storm in this time period.  Behind the storm, it does appear heights rise dramatically, which tells me two things: 1) The storm will likely be a strong one, as this is evidence of the amount of warmth and moisture available to it from the southern stream and the resultant baroclinicity, and 2) This strong storm will lead the northeast into a spring-like pattern for what is likely to be at least a week, taking us to around March 13-14.  Thereafter, while the deep cold will be exhausted, cold locked in Siberia that will have been cut off from migrating eastward (truly it's this bridge to Siberian cold that's been feeding our current cold streak) will be able to slide east into Western and Central Canada again, and renewed cold appears possible sometime after March 14, though not as deep and not for as long a period, it still will be watched carefully as baroclinicity would be a big factor at that point, owing to a significantly higher sun angle.

Needless to say, plenty watch for one and all.  That's all for today.

Matt


Storm Remains on Track...Plowable Snow En Route...Blustery and Cold Sunday Awaits

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: 

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Just a quick update to let you know I'm here and checking in...and I think the forecast will fall within about an inch of the numbers on the map posted below from yesterday (Friday) morning.  There are likely to be a few 6" amounts coming back, and up to 7 or 8 in the higher terrain of the 5+ area, but average amounts should still fall very close to what's been posted.  Enjoy the storm...nice to have it be big enough to see the snow, but small enough that I can enjoy it from home...a rare treat for a broadcast meteorologist!  Be sure to check out Joe Joyce with his coverage on NECN if you can!

Friday's Post:  Areas of black ice on roadways greet commuters of secondary roads and exit/entrance ramps to some highways Friday morning as scattered showers of rain and snow Thursday afternoon and night have left plenty of moisture in some spots.  Heavier snow squalls are moving east through Maine, where they will set up shop in Eastern Coastal Maine through Friday afternoon, delivering 3"-4" of snow in this area.  Elsewhere, mountain snow squalls will float through Northern and Western New England today while the remainder of New England finds a very gusty northwest wind bringing in enough dry air for plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered flurries.  Wind gusts may reach 55 mph Friday afternoon in some communities around New England and this means isolated damage to trees, tree limbs and power lines are possible - nothing like last Friday's damaging winds that gusted to 70-80 mph, but isolated damage is possible today nonetheless.  Expect winds to subside Friday night under mostly clear skies and a cold night.  A storm located over the Northern Plains Friday morning will move over New England later Saturday, blotting out any early morning sunshine behind increasing clouds, with light snow developing either side of 2 PM across New England and becoming heavier around 5 PM and lasting until around midnight with plowable snow for many (see accumulation maps below).  After snow ends late Saturday night, expect a drier, brighter, but cold and blustery day on Sunday as an arctic airmass pours into New England.  Cold air will remain in place on Monday, though another approaching storm will thicken the clouds and allow for snow to develop late and at night.  I'm expecting the cold and wintry feel to continue through next week!  -Matt

Accumulation Map for Saturday/Saturday Night Snow:

Accums_neweng

General Weather Summary:  After heavy snow and rain squalls for some communities later Thursday into predawn Friday, black ice found on secondary roadways, walkways, and exit/entrance ramps to some highways will melt away after making for a few Friday morning slick spots.  Exceptions will continue to be found in Eastern Maine where a weak area of low pressure will keep snow squalls falling through the day for 3"-4" of accumulation in Coastal Washington and Hancock Counties, and in the mountains of Northern and Western New England where scattered snow showers and squalls will continue to blow through.  Otherwise, expect a very gusty northwest wind to usher in cold and dry air for most of New England, bringing out plenty of sunshine amidst just a few isolated flurries, but also bringing wind gusts to 55 mph for some communities, which will be sufficient to cause isolated damage to trees, tree limbs and power lines.  It's important to note that while the wind will be capable of causing damage, blowing light objects around and pushing your car around a bit on the road, they will be nothing like the prolonged and intense damaging wind event of one week ago today.

Today's busy winds come as New England is sandwiched between a departing area of low pressure to our northwest and a bubble of high pressure building in from the west.  With a very fast flow in the atmosphere, this high pressure, fair weather center will build in quickly overnight Friday night and winds will subside with clearing skies for most areas as it does.  This combination of lighter wind and clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop into the single digits north and teens south Friday night.

Saturday likely dawns with some limited sunshine ahead of a fast-moving storm center traversing the nation and taking aim on New England.  Though the storm came ashore from the Pacific in the Pacific northwest on Thursday and was located over the Northern Plains Friday morning, it will be racing east and already spreading clouds into New England Saturday morning.  By mid-afternoon Saturday - likely sometime around 2-3 PM - light snow will begin falling in many parts of New England, becoming steadier and heavier by 5 PM.  This snow will not come down for very long thanks to the fast winds aloft pushing the storm through quickly, but will come down heavily at times Saturday evening and the first part of Saturday night, with widespread accumulations of 4"-5" by midnight Saturday night (see accumulation maps above), with local amounts to half a foot and lesser amounts to the north and south of the heaviest band of precipitation.  The snowfall accumulation forecast you see on my map is the result of two factors to be considered:  1) The shape of the snowfall pattern is defined by the rapid increase of warmth and moisture moving in from southwest to northeast in the south winds ahead of the counter-clockwise storm circulation, and 2) The amounts are based on somewhere around or just over 1/4" of melted precipitation in most areas in the heart of the precipitation band, but cold temperatures aloft will allow for a fluffy snow, so snow will pile up quickly and easily.

Again dictated by the fast jet stream winds aloft in the atmosphere, this storm will keep on truckin' and snow will end around midnight in most areas.  Winds will once again become quite active from the northwest and north behind this storm, and those winds will tap a well of cold Canadian arctic air that will come screaming in on Sunday, holding temperatures in the lower 20's through Southern New England and teens for Central and Northern areas.  With a biting wind, wind chill values will feel a good 8-12 degrees colder than the actual highs!  A few flurries and snow showers will still be possible in the mountains, though most of New England is likely to stay mainly dry.

Cold air sticks around into Monday and beyond, as the atmospheric pattern features something special in the world of meteorology...a developing "Greenland Block."  This is the term meteorologists use to describe a large and stationary area of high pressure that builds across Greenland - well to our east - and because high pressure is generally a fair-weather center, it blocks storms from moving quickly across the North Atlantic.  The result is to keep storms curling north when they move just east of the Canadian Maritimes, and with counter-clockwise flow of air around storms, this keeps an average northerly wind blowing into New England for quite some time.  The result of a pattern like this is for cold conditions to persist, with storms reaching their maximum intensity to our east, rather than over us, but that's not to say storms can't still affect New England - just like what's happening this weekend, stronger disturbances can occasionally strengthen further as they move overhead and this can produce widespread snows.  A similar situation may be in the cards for Monday night, then several chances of disturbed weather will remain while this "Greenland Block" holds.

Enjoy your weekend - I'll be back with you on Monday!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Friday, February 24 at 10:20 AM

Upslope snow squalls will continue in the Green Mountains in cold advection upslope flow today, and Champlain Valley is also reaping the benefits of a WNW flow until wind veers more to the NW later today.  Amounts in the higher terrain will near 10" in the Central and Northern Greens where the squalls stay put, a few inches of accumulation elsewhere up the spine of the Greens and away from the higher summits.  Squalls moving across the Maine Turnpike Fri AM are the result of a vorticity maximum and associated weak developing surface wave which, as of this writing, is moving SE across Penobscot Bay.  Once this circulation hits the waters of the Gulf of ME, agreement among the guidance is for stationary/slow moving band of snow squalls to set up over or near Coastal Washington and Hancock Counties and with QPF nearing .25" (perhaps a bit overdone, and the chance it will miss and set up over the ocean) I've gone with a few inches possible in immediate coastal locales in this area.  Elsewhere in NewEng, mixing to about 880 mb by the end of the day and this will tap an increasing cold llvl jet screaming around the base of the vort max moving N of NewEng and evident on morning satellite imagery.  This jet streak extends low enough to encounter our well mixed layer with about 50-55 kts of NW flow, and damaging wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible in some areas.  Nothing like the event of exactly one week ago today, but capable of isolated damage and disruption.

Subsidence between shortwaves and associated with splitting high pressure cell means clearing skies Fri Ngt with diminishing winds as surface ridge axis shifts over NewEng and this will set us up for decent radiational cooling with single digits in the north and teens south, and of course will ensure - as if we needed it - that temperatures region-wide will be plenty cold enough for snow with the next system on Saturday.

As for this system, it's been much talked about here for a few days, and perhaps the most remarkable part is the lack of change in the guidance from one cycle to the next.  Of course, that's to be expected in this pattern - a well-defined fast flow that features strongest cyclogenesis to our east.  A few storms earlier this year I remarked here how we were in the most difficult part of the pattern to accurately forecast - just ahead of the mean trof positon.  Now, being just behind it, we will find differences in the guidance usually only pertaining to timing, and that has been the case this time around, but I still think we're on target for the faster Saturday afternoon timing laid out yesterday, and at this point it looks like clouds race in Sat AM ahead of what is still very impressive speed convergence ahead of llvl jet punching north and northwest into NewEng during the day.  This teams up with intense cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of 30-35 unit vorticity maximum that dives SE across Central and Southern NewEng Sat afternoon and eve.  As mentioned yesterday, I truly believe it's the combination of this strong CVA, coupled with what's going on especially in the lower levels of the atmosphere that will drive the evolution of this storm.  Somewhat of a center jump appears to be in the cards for the surface low with this fast moving vort, but the shortwave is strong enough as it comes through that dynamic forcing will make this center jump a help rather than a hindrance when it comes to snow production, as it will enhance low level easterly flow ahead of the center of the vort max, and therefore enhance available moisture thanks to Atlantic inflow.  QPF is well agreed upon for the broad swath of over .25" among virtually all guidance, with center of the band closer to .40".  Temps aloft are actually a bit too cold for ideal ratios, so somewhere around 15:1 looks reasonable.  What's scary is that this keeps snowfall amounts right where you and I them two days ago in this discussion at about 4"-6" in a large swath of NewEng.  Given the limited area of .40" QPF amounts in only the heart of the band, I've opted to go 4-5" in my broadcasts for this area, with obvious orographic enhancement in the appropriate areas.  Also important to note that SE flow will mean a shadow effect for parts of West-Central NH, and for parts of the Northeast Kingdom of VT - I've tried to indicate that on the maps.  Even though I'm still expecting bursts of heavy snow in the heart of the isentropic lift Sat eve, especially during passage of the vort, there's absolutely no question that this is a fast moving system, and snow will not last longer than from about noon (west) and 2 PM (east) to around midnight most areas.  So, considering the short duration, these snowfall amounts become even more impressive.

After the storm departs around midnight Sat Ngt (perhaps eastern areas with snow lingering longer thanks to marine airmass contrasting with incoming arctic air, which has a tendency to wring moisture out as snowflakes), arctic airmass still expected to unload on NewEng with 850 temps dropping to -18 C Sunday and NNW wind direction - one of the coldest for NewEng.  Fighting the build of surface cold will be the fact that high pressure stays put to our east, so this cold truly has to build down from aloft, but there's enough of it to get 925 mb temps -12 to -13 C Sunday, and equally cold if not a tad colder Monday as the flow tries to turn SW but has to wait for weak shortwave ridge axis to pass, and once that SW flow does come in, clouds increase quickly.

This leads us into our next shortwave with potential, which is slated for Mon Ngt.  Again, timing on this may end up speeding up a bit, and NAM is already indicating that in its new 12Z run.  And while I'll acknowledge this shortwave has potential, I'm not willing to bite too hard on it yet, as steering flow is very much a NW flow with mean trof position shifting E of NewEng as polar vortex effective shifts to a position NE of ME.  This, in conjunction with the strong building Greenland block position and an NAO that will tank over the coming week and really for the first 7-10 days of March, will keep the storm breeding ground east of us, so it's going to take strong shortwaves, AND some flattening of the flow east of us - usually in response to shortwave ridging ahead of the disturbances - to get these systems to amplify.  So, for now, we'll keep an eye on the Monday/Monday night vorticity maximum and see how it evolves.  The one behind it may have more potential for midweek.  Regardless, a good meteorologist will stay on guard at all times in the aforementioned pattern, as it won't take much to organize something nearby, and it's also important to note that when the NAO finally does switch from strongly negative to neutral or even positive - which is somewhere around the 7th or 8th of March - research suggests major precipitation producing storms are often found with such NAO signal shifts, especially coming out of a pattern like the one we're in now.  Food for thought.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your snow forecasts!

Matt


Isolated Wind Damage Friday...Plowable Snow for Many on Saturday...Blustery and Cold Sunday in Store

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Areas of black ice on roadways greet commuters of secondary roads and exit/entrance ramps to some highways Friday morning as scattered showers of rain and snow Thursday afternoon and night have left plenty of moisture in some spots.  Heavier snow squalls are moving east through Maine, where they will set up shop in Eastern Coastal Maine through Friday afternoon, delivering 3"-4" of snow in this area.  Elsewhere, mountain snow squalls will float through Northern and Western New England today while the remainder of New England finds a very gusty northwest wind bringing in enough dry air for plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered flurries.  Wind gusts may reach 55 mph Friday afternoon in some communities around New England and this means isolated damage to trees, tree limbs and power lines are possible - nothing like last Friday's damaging winds that gusted to 70-80 mph, but isolated damage is possible today nonetheless.  Expect winds to subside Friday night under mostly clear skies and a cold night.  A storm located over the Northern Plains Friday morning will move over New England later Saturday, blotting out any early morning sunshine behind increasing clouds, with light snow developing either side of 2 PM across New England and becoming heavier around 5 PM and lasting until around midnight with plowable snow for many (see accumulation maps below).  After snow ends late Saturday night, expect a drier, brighter, but cold and blustery day on Sunday as an arctic airmass pours into New England.  Cold air will remain in place on Monday, though another approaching storm will thicken the clouds and allow for snow to develop late and at night.  I'm expecting the cold and wintry feel to continue through next week!  -Matt

Accumulation Map for Saturday/Saturday Night Snow:

Accums_neweng

General Weather Summary:  After heavy snow and rain squalls for some communities later Thursday into predawn Friday, black ice found on secondary roadways, walkways, and exit/entrance ramps to some highways will melt away after making for a few Friday morning slick spots.  Exceptions will continue to be found in Eastern Maine where a weak area of low pressure will keep snow squalls falling through the day for 3"-4" of accumulation in Coastal Washington and Hancock Counties, and in the mountains of Northern and Western New England where scattered snow showers and squalls will continue to blow through.  Otherwise, expect a very gusty northwest wind to usher in cold and dry air for most of New England, bringing out plenty of sunshine amidst just a few isolated flurries, but also bringing wind gusts to 55 mph for some communities, which will be sufficient to cause isolated damage to trees, tree limbs and power lines.  It's important to note that while the wind will be capable of causing damage, blowing light objects around and pushing your car around a bit on the road, they will be nothing like the prolonged and intense damaging wind event of one week ago today.

Today's busy winds come as New England is sandwiched between a departing area of low pressure to our northwest and a bubble of high pressure building in from the west.  With a very fast flow in the atmosphere, this high pressure, fair weather center will build in quickly overnight Friday night and winds will subside with clearing skies for most areas as it does.  This combination of lighter wind and clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop into the single digits north and teens south Friday night.

Saturday likely dawns with some limited sunshine ahead of a fast-moving storm center traversing the nation and taking aim on New England.  Though the storm came ashore from the Pacific in the Pacific northwest on Thursday and was located over the Northern Plains Friday morning, it will be racing east and already spreading clouds into New England Saturday morning.  By mid-afternoon Saturday - likely sometime around 2-3 PM - light snow will begin falling in many parts of New England, becoming steadier and heavier by 5 PM.  This snow will not come down for very long thanks to the fast winds aloft pushing the storm through quickly, but will come down heavily at times Saturday evening and the first part of Saturday night, with widespread accumulations of 4"-5" by midnight Saturday night (see accumulation maps above), with local amounts to half a foot and lesser amounts to the north and south of the heaviest band of precipitation.  The snowfall accumulation forecast you see on my map is the result of two factors to be considered:  1) The shape of the snowfall pattern is defined by the rapid increase of warmth and moisture moving in from southwest to northeast in the south winds ahead of the counter-clockwise storm circulation, and 2) The amounts are based on somewhere around or just over 1/4" of melted precipitation in most areas in the heart of the precipitation band, but cold temperatures aloft will allow for a fluffy snow, so snow will pile up quickly and easily.

Again dictated by the fast jet stream winds aloft in the atmosphere, this storm will keep on truckin' and snow will end around midnight in most areas.  Winds will once again become quite active from the northwest and north behind this storm, and those winds will tap a well of cold Canadian arctic air that will come screaming in on Sunday, holding temperatures in the lower 20's through Southern New England and teens for Central and Northern areas.  With a biting wind, wind chill values will feel a good 8-12 degrees colder than the actual highs!  A few flurries and snow showers will still be possible in the mountains, though most of New England is likely to stay mainly dry.

Cold air sticks around into Monday and beyond, as the atmospheric pattern features something special in the world of meteorology...a developing "Greenland Block."  This is the term meteorologists use to describe a large and stationary area of high pressure that builds across Greenland - well to our east - and because high pressure is generally a fair-weather center, it blocks storms from moving quickly across the North Atlantic.  The result is to keep storms curling north when they move just east of the Canadian Maritimes, and with counter-clockwise flow of air around storms, this keeps an average northerly wind blowing into New England for quite some time.  The result of a pattern like this is for cold conditions to persist, with storms reaching their maximum intensity to our east, rather than over us, but that's not to say storms can't still affect New England - just like what's happening this weekend, stronger disturbances can occasionally strengthen further as they move overhead and this can produce widespread snows.  A similar situation may be in the cards for Monday night, then several chances of disturbed weather will remain while this "Greenland Block" holds.

Enjoy your weekend - I'll be back with you on Monday!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Friday, February 24 at 10:20 AM

Upslope snow squalls will continue in the Green Mountains in cold advection upslope flow today, and Champlain Valley is also reaping the benefits of a WNW flow until wind veers more to the NW later today.  Amounts in the higher terrain will near 10" in the Central and Northern Greens where the squalls stay put, a few inches of accumulation elsewhere up the spine of the Greens and away from the higher summits.  Squalls moving across the Maine Turnpike Fri AM are the result of a vorticity maximum and associated weak developing surface wave which, as of this writing, is moving SE across Penobscot Bay.  Once this circulation hits the waters of the Gulf of ME, agreement among the guidance is for stationary/slow moving band of snow squalls to set up over or near Coastal Washington and Hancock Counties and with QPF nearing .25" (perhaps a bit overdone, and the chance it will miss and set up over the ocean) I've gone with a few inches possible in immediate coastal locales in this area.  Elsewhere in NewEng, mixing to about 880 mb by the end of the day and this will tap an increasing cold llvl jet screaming around the base of the vort max moving N of NewEng and evident on morning satellite imagery.  This jet streak extends low enough to encounter our well mixed layer with about 50-55 kts of NW flow, and damaging wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible in some areas.  Nothing like the event of exactly one week ago today, but capable of isolated damage and disruption.

Subsidence between shortwaves and associated with splitting high pressure cell means clearing skies Fri Ngt with diminishing winds as surface ridge axis shifts over NewEng and this will set us up for decent radiational cooling with single digits in the north and teens south, and of course will ensure - as if we needed it - that temperatures region-wide will be plenty cold enough for snow with the next system on Saturday.

As for this system, it's been much talked about here for a few days, and perhaps the most remarkable part is the lack of change in the guidance from one cycle to the next.  Of course, that's to be expected in this pattern - a well-defined fast flow that features strongest cyclogenesis to our east.  A few storms earlier this year I remarked here how we were in the most difficult part of the pattern to accurately forecast - just ahead of the mean trof positon.  Now, being just behind it, we will find differences in the guidance usually only pertaining to timing, and that has been the case this time around, but I still think we're on target for the faster Saturday afternoon timing laid out yesterday, and at this point it looks like clouds race in Sat AM ahead of what is still very impressive speed convergence ahead of llvl jet punching north and northwest into NewEng during the day.  This teams up with intense cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of 30-35 unit vorticity maximum that dives SE across Central and Southern NewEng Sat afternoon and eve.  As mentioned yesterday, I truly believe it's the combination of this strong CVA, coupled with what's going on especially in the lower levels of the atmosphere that will drive the evolution of this storm.  Somewhat of a center jump appears to be in the cards for the surface low with this fast moving vort, but the shortwave is strong enough as it comes through that dynamic forcing will make this center jump a help rather than a hindrance when it comes to snow production, as it will enhance low level easterly flow ahead of the center of the vort max, and therefore enhance available moisture thanks to Atlantic inflow.  QPF is well agreed upon for the broad swath of over .25" among virtually all guidance, with center of the band closer to .40".  Temps aloft are actually a bit too cold for ideal ratios, so somewhere around 15:1 looks reasonable.  What's scary is that this keeps snowfall amounts right where you and I them two days ago in this discussion at about 4"-6" in a large swath of NewEng.  Given the limited area of .40" QPF amounts in only the heart of the band, I've opted to go 4-5" in my broadcasts for this area, with obvious orographic enhancement in the appropriate areas.  Also important to note that SE flow will mean a shadow effect for parts of West-Central NH, and for parts of the Northeast Kingdom of VT - I've tried to indicate that on the maps.  Even though I'm still expecting bursts of heavy snow in the heart of the isentropic lift Sat eve, especially during passage of the vort, there's absolutely no question that this is a fast moving system, and snow will not last longer than from about noon (west) and 2 PM (east) to around midnight most areas.  So, considering the short duration, these snowfall amounts become even more impressive.

After the storm departs around midnight Sat Ngt (perhaps eastern areas with snow lingering longer thanks to marine airmass contrasting with incoming arctic air, which has a tendency to wring moisture out as snowflakes), arctic airmass still expected to unload on NewEng with 850 temps dropping to -18 C Sunday and NNW wind direction - one of the coldest for NewEng.  Fighting the build of surface cold will be the fact that high pressure stays put to our east, so this cold truly has to build down from aloft, but there's enough of it to get 925 mb temps -12 to -13 C Sunday, and equally cold if not a tad colder Monday as the flow tries to turn SW but has to wait for weak shortwave ridge axis to pass, and once that SW flow does come in, clouds increase quickly.

This leads us into our next shortwave with potential, which is slated for Mon Ngt.  Again, timing on this may end up speeding up a bit, and NAM is already indicating that in its new 12Z run.  And while I'll acknowledge this shortwave has potential, I'm not willing to bite too hard on it yet, as steering flow is very much a NW flow with mean trof position shifting E of NewEng as polar vortex effective shifts to a position NE of ME.  This, in conjunction with the strong building Greenland block position and an NAO that will tank over the coming week and really for the first 7-10 days of March, will keep the storm breeding ground east of us, so it's going to take strong shortwaves, AND some flattening of the flow east of us - usually in response to shortwave ridging ahead of the disturbances - to get these systems to amplify.  So, for now, we'll keep an eye on the Monday/Monday night vorticity maximum and see how it evolves.  The one behind it may have more potential for midweek.  Regardless, a good meteorologist will stay on guard at all times in the aforementioned pattern, as it won't take much to organize something nearby, and it's also important to note that when the NAO finally does switch from strongly negative to neutral or even positive - which is somewhere around the 7th or 8th of March - research suggests major precipitation producing storms are often found with such NAO signal shifts, especially coming out of a pattern like the one we're in now.  Food for thought.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck with your snow forecasts!

Matt


Emerging Snow Squalls to Pose Travel Hazards Thursday...Plowable Snow For Some Saturday Night

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  A strong upper level disturbance will cross New England today, and will push a weak disturbance, called a "trough", through at ground level.  This trough, in conjunction with the approaching disturbance, will continue to spark showers of snow and rain across New England today, under mostly cloudy skies.  With high temperatures approaching 40 degrees in Southern New England, and in the middle 30's north, some rain showers will certainly mix in, but the concern is that temperatures will fall just enough around the time of evening commute in Southern New England - and will be cold enough through the day across hilly terrain and VT, NH and ME - that roads may become slippery and covered with snow and ice in some communities.  A key to understanding today's forecast is the realization that *localized bands* of heavier precipitation will cause the problems - not all communities will be hit hard - but you can monitor where these areas of rain and snow are today via radar imagery on my main page, www.mattnoyes.net.  Overnight, snow and rain showers will end between 9 PM (most areas) and midnight (eastern ME), but with partial clearing and light winds, black ice will become a problem in many communities.  Another disturbance raises chances for snow squalls just in time for the morning commute on Friday, then a blustery day with scattered snow showers between breaks of sunshine.  Saturday dawns with limited sunshine, but clouds thicken and snow is likely by late Saturday afternoon, lasting through Saturday night.  This won't be a blockbuster storm, but a few inches and therefore a plowable snow does appear likely.  Behind this storm, bitter winds usher in very cold air for both Sunday and Monday, with a blend of sun and clouds interspersed with occasional flurries.  Take it easy!  -Matt

General Weather Summary:  The overall weather pattern has been consistent this week - keeping the northern (polar) and southern (subtropical) jet streams separate - thereby keeping the significant cold and energy separate from southern moisture.  These streams have been phasing to our east, across the Western Atlantic, and that's where larger storm centers have been taking shape.  Thursday, the merger of northern energy and southern moisture will occur closer to New England, at the same time a strong northern stream disturbance drops across the six-state region. 

This combination of factors will serve to produce plenty of clouds for all areas, with morning mountain snow squalls expanding in areal coverage to envelope most of New England by Thursday afternoon.  With a light wind but limited daytime heating through the clouds, temperatures will still be able to climb to around 40 degrees in Southern New England and this will be warm enough for a mix of rain and snow showers, or even just rain in some locales as precipitation blossoms later Thursday.  With cold air aloft, however, hilly terrain across Southern New England will likely find mainly snow showers, and as the afternoon progresses, this cold air will allow for a change to snow squalls for most valleys and the coastal plain, as well.  Road crews will need to be on standby across Southern New England today as a result, because while bursts of snow will be found in *localized* heavy bands, communities under these bands of snow late this afternoon and this evening will see a quick ice/snow coating on roadways as temperatures fall to near freezing.  Farther north in New England, most of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will be cold enough for mostly snow, and therefore a few inches of accumulation are possible in only a few hours in some of these heavier squalls Thursday afternoon and evening.  By 9 or 10 PM Thursday evening, after what will obviously be a difficult commute for some areas, snow squalls will diminish and skies will partially clear - though this will be delayed until around midnight in Central and Eastern Maine as the disturbance sparking these squalls moves east across New England.  For more on how this disturbance is coming together...an explanation of the "Norlun Trough" that will set up across New England today...please refer to yesterday's summary (found in the archives at left, and found below today's post).

Friday will dawn wtih widespread black ice after clearing skies allow temperatures to drop into the 20s through most of New England by Friday morning, and leftover moisture on New England roadways freezes.  On top of this black ice, it appears as though at least some communities will find a fresh coating of snow coming through Friday morning - right around the time of the morning drive - as yet another disturbance moves through and sparks a new round of snow showers and squalls for some communities of both Northern and Southern New England.  For a few unlucky souls, we certainly may see back-to-back aggravating commutes.  The passage of this Friday morning disturbance marks the leading edge to a new installment of cold air, and blustery conditions will prevail with emerging breaks of sunshine amidst leftover flurries for most of us, and lingering heavier squalls in the Northern Mountains.

This weekend, with multiple energetic disturbances still dropping in from the north, and moisture beginning to finally ride northward to meet the energy, we will be very close to phasing the streams over or near New England.  It continues to appear as though later Saturday, energy slides through quickly, passing through Saturday night and then ushering in cold air as the storm strengthens once passing to our east.  The end result should be as follows:  Saturday morning sunshine fades behind thickening clouds in advance of the approaching storm.  Snow will develop later Saturday afternoon as moisture and warmth aloft is ushered northward in the south winds ahead of this counter-clockwise circulation, and snow will become heavier Saturday night.  As the storm circulation moves over New England, a big part of the forecast hinges on how strong the storm center becomes.  If it strengthens quickly enough - and I think it will - an east wind will develop through the lower few thousand feet of the atmosphere and this will mean we tap moisture from the Atlantic Ocean.  My expectation is for relatively light snow late Saturday afternoon to find embedded bursts of heavier snow Saturday evening, then an overnight gasp of steady snow as this easterly wind develops at the very same time the storm gets ready to pull away.  This means a short-duration event that will be winding down Sunday morning, with a few inches that falls in most of at least Central and Southern New England (Northern New England likely to get into some of this, too) but areas that see this ocean influence may come closer to 4"-6" of snow.  It's still early to pinpoint whether those higher amounts fall - but likely somewhere between Northeast MA and the Central Coast of ME - certainly in eastern New England.

Behind this storm, cold and blustery conditions come pouring in on Sunday with scattered snow showers between sun and clouds, and a reinforcing shot of cold air with possible snow squalls swings through on Monday.  Don't be expecting the cold air to go very far!  Indications are we'll remain chilly through next week.

Have a wonderful Thursday.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Thursday, February 23 at 2:45 PM

Today's convective activity is firing nicely as of this writing and visibility to 1/2 mile in snow has already been reported under numerous locales in the northern band and also in HFD under the southern activity.  Details on today's event were laid out here yesterday and I won't bother to rehash - suffice to say the bridging of convection between northern energy/front and southern moist inflow has begun and will continue, bringing heavy squalls of rain and snow to Southern NewEng, and of snow to areas N of the MA State line and in the hills of Southern NewEng as well.  Of course, the challenges won't stop there - while surface wet bulb temps have risen above zero in most of Southern NewEng, still well below zero just off ground level and this will allow snow to make it to ground level.  Dynamic cooling is likely to bring some of this colder and drier air toward the surface and heavier convective bursts will feature changeover to snow even in the valleys and coastal plain during the afternoon.  Approaching sunset, the combo of this factor and waning diurnal heating will help road surfaces to cool enough for snow and ice to accumulate in some areas, which is the reason for concern on roadways of both northern and southern NewEng Thu afternoon and evening.  Snowwfall rates of 2" per hour will be found in the White Mountains, Mountains of Maine, and perhaps in the Berkshires.  Anywhere from Berkshires to hilly terrain of MA to MA/NH border points north will be susceptible to a few inches of snow in just a few hours in the more intense convective bands and bursts.

Overnight, skies will clear in area of subsidence and wedge of dry air between shortwaves as next vorticity maximum shoots east from current position over MI and across the Great Lakes into NewEng by morning.  In the interim, widespread black ice will result thanks to light winds, high ambient RH in the boundary layer, and widespread precip of various forms during the day leaving plenty of moisture on the roadways.  Next shortwave will be driving a cold front with it as it charges thru Fri AM, and the trof moving thru NewEng will also whip southward, providing multiple lines of convergence for what will likely be another round of snow squalls for Fri AM commute.  Once this shortwave whips thru, expect strong subsidence combined with downslope flow to bring the sun out most areas, tho upslope areas will capitalize on cold air aloft and associated instability to keep squalls going thru most of the day.

Two trends for Sat system: faster and farther N.  The farther north trend is the one that should be a bit concerning for snow lovers across Southern NewEng - I'd say we're still guaranteed to get the snow in here, but it's going to mean any easterly flow on the north side of the low level circulation is mostly going to be focused along the Maine coastline and into Northern New England.  But while this news may bring some frowns to Southern New England snow lovers, it brings smiles to the faces of Northerners, who are undoubtedly leaning forward into your monitors right now, waiting for more info!  Here's the deal:  As the northern stream shortwave races east on Saturday, the reason I'm so confident we'll see a shield of snow moving into New England from the south is owing to the intense speed convergence and isentropic lift associated with strong warm and moist advection at 850 mb ahead of the circulation.  With a faster eastward progression of the low, this convergence and warm/moist advection spreads into far SW NewEng as soon as Sat morning, then overspreads the remainder of NewEng during the day Sat, and snow is certain to develop with this southerly thrust of air.  The downside to this is that while it can snow exceptionally hard in situations like these, it will also even further shorten the duration of an already short-lived event.  The result is likely to be a burst of about 6 hours of steady and at times heavy snow for Southern NewEng on Saturday, then the areas to see extended snowfall will be found where easterly or southeasterly flow can set up on the north side of especially the 850 mb circulation.  In fact, given the baroclinicity, the low level jet max, and the available ocean moisture, I'm a big believer that this event will be strongly driven by what unfolds in the low levels, and this means a burst of warm advection snow to start for everyone, then lingering snow where easterly flow establishes.  Ratios will likely be somewhere around 16:1 as an early rough estimate, but I'll dig into this a bit more tomorrow.

Still looks like real cold stuff in store for Sun and reinforcing arctic front with wave possible Monday.  NAO stays negative and cold air looks to stay locked in with trough over Northeastern US and Greenland block developing.  While this keeps in the cold, it still leaves us on the fence for storms, favoring a continued storm maximization to our east, but close enough that we'll be watching each strong shortwave like a hawk.

Enjoy your day.

Matt


Tricky Weather Pattern Leads New England into the Weekend After Quiet "Hump Day" Wednesday

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Dry air brought clearing skies to most of New England Tuesday night, and Wednesday will continue mostly sunny for Southern New England.  An upper level disturbance will move east from the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon, building Northern New England clouds and spawning late afternoon and evening snow showers and heavier squalls in the mountains.  Light accumulations will result, but like Tuesday's snow showers, these may be intense enough to briefly ice roadways in the mountains as they move through.  Elsewhere, clouds won't increase until overnight Wednesday night, in advance of yet another energetic disturbance that will move through New England on Thursday.  Thursday's system is noteably stronger, and with most of New England spending the day under mostly cloudy skies, bursts of snow will spread from Northern VT Thursday morning, to most of NH by early afternoon, to most of Eastern New England from Eastern MA through Maine by late afternoon.  Localized heavy bands of snow will set up anywhere from the NH Seacoast points north and east (especially through Maine), and in these *localized* bands, a few inches of snow may fall in a short period of time.  Colder air begins to move in on Friday with a few more snow showers scattered amidst sun and clouds.  The forecast becomes tricky for the weekend, but right now Saturday is looking mostly dry with sunshine to start, then increasing clouds late and a chance of snow at night, giving way to a blustery and cold Sunday.  -Matt

General Weather Summary:  Wednesday begins with mostly sunny skies across just about all of New England as the six-state region lay between one departing energetic upper level distubance to our east, and another approaching from the west.  Sunshine will prevail across most of New England with just an increase in high-altitude cirrus clouds ahead of this fast-moving disturbance late Wednesday, and a relatively light breeze from the southwest, teaming with sunshine to boost temperatures either side of 40 degrees.  Much like yesterday, the mountains of Northern New England will find flurries and snow showers developing with the passage of this energy center, especially toward sundown and through the first half of the overnight.  Later Wednesday night, a new energy center will draw near to New England, and most areas will find an increase in clouds during the overnight.

The overall weather pattern has been consistent this week - keeping the northern (polar) and southern (subtropical) jet streams separate - thereby keeping the significant cold and energy separate from southern moisture.  These streams have been phasing to our east, across the Western Atlantic, and that's where larger storm centers have been taking shape.  By Thursday, the merger of northern energy and southern moisture will occur closer to New England, at the same time a strong northern stream disturbance drops across the six-state region.  The result is likely to be some enhancement to snow showers as they move across New England on Thursday, as the interaction between these two disturbances evidences itself as a weak disturbance at the surface, known as a "trough," which represents a wind shift and a line of enhanced precipitation.  In fact, with very cold air moving in about 18,000 feet high in the sky - to the tune of 40 degrees below zero - a condition known as "instability" will result.  This instability is the difference between the frigid air aloft and *relatively* warm air at ground level, and the presence of instability favors cloud and precipitation development - remember that warm air rises, and this type of a setup allows warm air to rise high in the sky, like a head of steam, resulting in clouds and often precipitation, as well.  The combination of this instability and the nearby trough will result in a developing "Norlun Instability Trough", which is a fancy term that refers to the atmospheric setup whereby instability and a trough team together to provide enhanced snowfall in thin, localized bands, which can drop quickly accumulating snow in the extremely localized areas that are affected.  It appears right now as though the heavier bursts of snow will begin as the approaching northern stream energy encounters the Green Mountains of Vermont - lighting up some of these heavier bursts across Northern Vermont Thursday morning.  As the disturbance moves east, and the Norlun Trough begins to take shape, these bursts of heavier snow will expand in areal coverage while moving southeast across Central and Northern NH by early afternoon, then expanding from Eastern Southern New England all the way through Maine by late afternoon and evening.  Embedded in this expanding area of snow showers will be the localized bands of heavier accumulating snow, and while we'll monitor radar imagery tomorrow to stay on top of these bands, the most likely areas for a few inches in only a few hours would be in the aforementioned areas north of the MA/NH border and especially in Maine. 

After scattered flurries and snow showers Thursday night, the Norlun trough may linger across New England on Friday morning before being pushed southward as a surge of cold air moves in from the north.  With the passage of this trough on Friday, marking the leading edge to a new installment of cold air, a few more snow showers or a heavier squall are possible betweeen intervals of sunshine and clouds.  With a sliver of cold and dry air in place on Saturday, expect a mainly dry day with sunshine to start, and increasing clouds to finish.

From this point on, the forecast remains quite tricky.  While Thursday and Friday's forecast is a bit tricky due to finely tuned forecasts on the regional scale, this weekend's forecast hinges upon an understanding of the large-scale weather pattern.  With multiple energetic disturbances still dropping in from the north, and moisture beginning to finally ride northward to meet the energy, we will be very close to phasing the streams over or near New England.  There are two ways this could go:  1) Energy slides through quickly, passing through Saturday night with a round of light to locally moderate accumulating snow and ushering in cold as a storm develops just to our east, or 2) Energy merges as it nears New England, then taps the southern moisture for a more substantial snowfall Sunday night, then allows cold air to stream in.  At this point, I'm favoring the former solution, bringing thickening clouds in later Saturday, dropping accumulating snow Saturday night, then rushing a surge of arctic air in for a Sunday that would begin with lingering snow in some areas very early, then give way to windy breaks of sunshine and a few afternoon flurries, but you know I'll keep you posted on how this shakes out.

Have a wonderful Hump Day!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Wednesday, February 22 at 1:30 PM

A very tricky forecast period lay ahead from Thursday through the weekend.  But let's take this one step at a time.

Multiple surface fronts evident on late morning national surface analysis with a stationary front parked north of NewEng and holding truly arctic air at bay, warm front progressing slowly ENE across NY State but losing warm frontal characteristics and ready to transition to trof that will be tricky for us, and stationary front over SE US focusing deeper southern stream moisture across Arklatex region and Lower TN River Valley.

One northern stream shortwave scooting east is producing good cloud signature across Ontario and Quebec and cumulus are building in increasingly favorable convective environment across Northern NewEng.  Though later to fire up than yesterday, snow showers and heavier snow squalls will once again locally reduce visibility to 1/4 mile toward sunset, and snow showers/squalls will continue through the first half of the overnight as dynamic forcing continues with passage of vorticity maximum.

Of course, this is probably the most straight-forward part of our forecast.  Shortwave located over Chicago at midday will race eastward and bring increasing clouds all areas overnight Wed Ngt.  The overall pattern certainly favors shortwaves of all shapes, sizes and trajectories firing over NewEng with confluent flow into a trof axis just barely to our west over Western NY/PA.  This is undoubtedly an uncomfortable synoptic position to be in, as it implies diffluence aloft is centered directly over NewEng, and this is certainly a pro to nearby storm development.  For the time-being, tho, major storm development is precluded by two factors - both a lack of phasing, and, moreover, a lack of a strong enough shortwave in the short-term to close a low off and get a closed circulation developed.

Nonetheless, a new shortwave over Minnesota Wed PM dives SE and moves immediately S of NewEng during the day on Thu.  This puts NewEng in a weak warm advection regime in the low levels with dynamic forcing thru the entire day.  At the same time the dying warm front moving into NewEng takes on the role of a trof, colder air moves in aloft with 500 mb temps of -36 to -38 C by day's end.  This combination of differential advection through the atmosphere will mean increasing instability thru the day, with the trof serving as a focus for the instability by providing enhanced surface and boundary layer convergence between bubble high east of NewEng, strengthening low SE of Nantucket by several hundred miles, and southwest flow around primary low over Southern Quebec.  With time, the low-level convergence is actually enhanced thanks to increasing easterly flow, and the result is a well-defined Norlun Instability Trough, slowly moving east.  That being said, I'm not sure this is purely by definition a Norlun Trough, as it is still in the process of transitioning from a decaying warm front to a trough, and there is a weak wave of surface low pressure developing along it.  Nonetheless, this entire combination of factors should begin by producing an area of snow showers and heavier squalls across Northern VT Thu AM ahead of this developing surface wave, then as this area of lift migrates east, it should also expand southward both in response to the shortwave south of NewEng, the assoc jet streak producing diffluence in the left front quadrant over Southern NewEng, and the southward expanding instability assoc with cooling aloft.  The result is to spread the snow showers and bursts of heavier snow in a fan shape E and SE from the initial point of convection in Nrn VT, expanding to include Ern MA, NH and most of ME by afternoon.  Pinpointing localized bands of heavy snow in situations like these - as regular readers know already - is a very difficult task, but it makes sense that with the trough shifting to Eastern NewEng later in the day, and a SE flow ahead of the trough, bands of heavier precip should be most easily found later in the afternoon through Eastern NewEng.  As for QPF, the NAM is over a tenth of an inch, and the GFS goes over .25" in the White Mountains, so they're having no problem keying in on precip production.  The problem here...and what we have to step carefully about, is the mesoscale nature and dependency of an event like this.  If the models are accurate, it's possible to really nail a forecast, but if they waver again - like they did by slowing the eastward progression of the trof between the 00Z and 12Z runs - then you're ruined.  The best path, in my humble opinion, is to acknowledge that accumulations of a few inches in a few hours are possible in heavier bands of snow, outline the areas that are vulnerable, and those that are *most likely* to contend with heavier bands (east side of the trof - Central/Ern NH, ME seacoast, Ern MA) then go from there.  Additional factor is surface temps, which after a dry start should be able to rebound into the upper 30's in Southern NewEng and this would cut back on accums and perhaps even throw a few raindrops into the mix.  Seems like best bet here is to go with a thick sloppy coating Eastern Southern NewEng, higher amounts in the colder air farther N where a few inches are possible in a short time Thu afternoon with convective development of snow squalls.  Indications are that this activity will not wane much the first part of Thu ngt as it shifts E into ME, so quick accumulations of a few inches are possible thru much of ME Thu Eve/Ngt.

Merging vorticity centers diving SE over far Srn NewEng on Fri will be the impetus for pushing trough into ME Thu Ngt with warm advection ahead of them in llvls, then will whip this trof southward Fri AM as strong cold NW flow sets in.  Additional flurries and squalls are possible with this southward whip of the low level convergent zone, then upper level cold core allows for convective elements of snow again later Fri afternoon.

Weekend fcst plenty difficult earlier this AM with 00Z runs split into very distinct camps of how to handle energy diving over NewEng - GFS was putting out a significant Sunday evening snowstorm as low cranked up almost overhead and had plenty of model support, while NAM had its own camp of diving flatter and faster vort S of NewEng Sat ngt.  My choice this early AM was to go with the flatter and faster solution given the pattern of late, and thankfully, GFS has come in line, so my hope is that this was the right way to go.  Bottom line is that with ridge expanding over and E of Greenland, but no amplified ridging upstream from NewEng, this favors positioning the mean trof position to our east - barely - and keeping shortwaves moving thru us fairly quickly.  With a track S of NewEng, though, the story isn't over there at all.  I still see a potential minor to moderate accumulating snow event even with this flatter solution for Sat Ngt!  NAM suggests easterly flow has already established at 850 mb ahead of this closed low level circulation according to model progs, by the time it moves over the Eastern Great Lakes.  I don't have to tell you, my technical readers, that an easterly flow means we have an entire ocean available for moisture.  500 mb jet streak is about 90 knots over OH Valley Sat Eve which puts NewEng in strongly diffluent left front quadrant, and just behind departing shortwave ridging to further enhance diffluent aloft.  Low level warm and moist advection will be strong, and while Northern NewEng still waits to see the exact track of the vort before we get too excited, I see little reason to doubt a snow event of widespread plowable snow for Southern NewEng.  Now, before we go too far off the deep end, GFS is much more open with this circulation, but this model is just now catching onto the progression of the wave, and the GGEM appears more in line with the ETA with a well defined circulation as the system moves east, so I think our chances for a Saturday night snow are looking decent right now.

To buy a faster solution means we also need to buy the faster influx of cold air, so Sunday I'd expect highs only in the teens north and lower 20's thanks largely to downsloping flow south.  Cold air should be reinforced by second arctic frontal passage - perhaps with surface wave if you buy the GGEM - on Monday.

That's all for today - I think I've sufficiently peaked all of our interests in Saturday night...now we wait to see if nature cooperates.

Matt


Quiet Pattern Continues through Midweek...Periodic Light Snow in the Mountains

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Our Tuesday dawns with expanding cloud cover ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance.  There is very little moisture available in the atmosphere, however, so for most of New England this disturbance will simply result in a tendency for more clouds than sun through the day Tuesday, allowing for an occasional flurry.  Across the mountains of the North Country, repetitive snow showers Tuesday afternoon into the first half of Tuesday night will deposit a couple of fresh fluffy inches of snow, continuing an amazing week of skiing in Northern New England.  Elsewhere, expect gradually clearing skies Tuesday night as drier air moves in aloft.  Wednesday dawns with sunshine, then clouds build during the late afternoon with a few flurries possible once again, especially in the hilly and mountainous terrain.  By Thursday, a series of somewhat stronger upper level disturbances move toward and across New England, bringing plenty of clouds and a few light showers of rain and snow from time to time - again, enhanced in the mountains.  Thursday night into Friday, it's possible that we'll see some enhancement to these snow showers as a bit more moisture becomes available, and some light accumulation may result for even parts of Central or Southern New England.  Expect a dry start to the weekend, though a stronger storm may be able to tap Southern moisture for a more widespread snow on Sunday.  Enjoy your Tuesday! -Matt

General Weather Summary:  Reports from some of you seeing the beautiful show this morning of Jupiter in the southern sky - between 5 and 6 AM - just up and to the right of the moon.  Though clouds have filled in since then, I do expect them to clear out overnight and this should make for another great show - the last of the truly brilliant displays - at this time again Wednesday morning.

The overall weather pattern this week continues to feature a steady train of moisture-loaded systems scooting east across the Southern Tier of the United States, and a steady train of energetic but moisture starved systems racing across the Northern Tier - including New England.  If the supply of moisture and energy were to team up, a large storm would be the result - but it looks as though this merger of northern and southern stream systems will occur far enough east to avoid major storm development along the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days.

The result, therefore, will be periods of increased clouds and chances for light snow and flurries with these passing energy centers, all of which should amount to very little through most of New England, with possible exceptions in the mountainous terrain, where precipitation from incoming Canadian disturbances can often be enhanced.

One of these upper level disturbances is racing into New England on Tuesday, and has resulted in blossoming cloud cover for many areas.  At times, these clouds will be thin enough for breaks of sunshine, largely owing to the dry nature of the air in place across New England, so that even disturbances of moderate strength like the one moving through today have trouble mustering up more than just blossoming clouds in the middle and high altitudes, producing no more than isolated flurries or light snow showers.  The exceptions to this rule can be found in the mountains, where winds push up against the mountain faces, and this forces air upward.  Referred to as "upslope flow", this rising air is a necessary component to cloud formation, and the result is for enhanced clouds and snow showers in the higher terrain of the Green and White Mountains, and of the mountains of Maine, where a couple of fresh fluffy inches are possible in the higher elevations from late Tuesday afternoon through midnight Tuesday night.  Elsewhere, expect a day of more clouds than sun, overall, to give way to gradual overnight clearing.

Wednesday will dawn with sunshine for most areas, then another approaching upper level disturbance will bring increasing late day clouds, as the fast moving flow of energetic but moisture-starved weather systems continues from Canada.  Each disturbance that passes through DOES eventually meet with more appreciable moisture, though this "phasing" of the northern energy and southern moisture continues to occur just far enough east of the coastline to spare us from any hearty storm development.  By Thursday, the merger of northern energy and southern moisture will occur close enough to New England, that we'll be keeping a close eye on how the pattern unfolds, as it's possible this development will be close enough to enhance the period of snow just a bit for at least some of New England - especially the farther northeast one is.  This possible enhancement will occur as one Northern Stream disturbance over the St. Lawrence River Valley (north of New England) forms a weak link with a strengthening disturbance dropping southeast of the New England coastline.  The interaction between these two disturbances may evidence itself as a weak disturbance at the surface, known as a "trough," which represents a wind shift and a line of enhanced precipitation.  In fact, with very cold air moving in about 18,000 feet high in the sky - to the tune of 40 degrees below zero - a condition known as "instability" will result.  This instability is the difference between the frigid air aloft and *relatively* warm air at ground level, and the presence of instability favors cloud and precipitation development - remember that warm air rises, and this type of a setup allows warm air to rise high in the sky, like a head of steam, resulting in clouds and often precipitation, as well.  The combination of this instability and the nearby trough may result in a "Norlun Instability Trough", which is a fancy term that refers to the atmospheric setup where instability and a trough can team together to provide enhanced snowfall in a thin line, which can drop accumulating snow in the extremely localized areas that are affected.  These are tricky disturbances, however, and we'll wait to see how this plays out over the next 48-72 hours.

Regardless, by Friday I expect a stronger push of northern energy to send a cold front through New England, reinforcing cold air and bringing yet another chance for snow showers, and ushering in drier air to start our weekend.  Signs are that moisture will return by Sunday, when a chance of snow returns to the forecast.

Enjoy your Tuesday!

Technical Discussion:  No technical discussion today.  Should have one out tomorrow (Wednesday).  Have a great day!

Matt


Quiet and Cool Winter Weather to Start the Week

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  After a blustery but bright weekend across New England, winds will subside on Presidents' Day with abundant sunshine giving way to a few late-day high-altitude clouds, and a wonderful day for many folks to enjoy a well-deserved day off.  The trend over the next several days will be for energetic disturbances to move over New England aloft - at the jet stream level - but for deep atmospheric moisture to stay south of us.  If the energy and the moisture were to join, a larger storm would be in the making, so we'll continue to watch this pattern carefully, but for now it looks most likely that each disturbance will slide through with periods of increased clouds and a chance of spurts of flurries or light snow, but no blockbusters appear to be in the cards given the inability to team energy AND moisture together.  So, at this point the rest of the week breaks down this way:  Tuesday starts with sunshine, then clouds thicken with an approaching disturbance and some flurries or light snow are possible with little or no accumulation.  Wednesday will be a similar blend of sun and clouds, with another chance of flurries or light snow late and at night.  With another energetic disturbance and the return of somewhat milder air Thursday, there may be a bit more in the way of clouds, especially early when a few flurries or some light snow is possible.  A cold front pushes through later Thursday and leaves cooler Friday temperatures wtih billowing afternoon clouds and a few snow showers.  Have a great Monday!

General Weather Summary:  Quick Update:  I just finished with the noon show and realized something I've been mentioning on-air in my NECN broadcasts and neglected to mention in this discussion:  If you're up early enough, check out the south sky around 5:30 in the morning Tuesday.  This morning's display was brilliant - looking south about one hour before sunrise, Jupiter was bright and clear just up and to the right of the moon...it should be visible again around 5:30 AM Tuesday and - provided clouds don't interfere - Wednesday, as well.

Previous Weather Discussion:  A quiet Presidents' Day lay in store for New England, as the damaging winds of the past weekend have quieted and arctic air begins to release its grasp.  The overall weather pattern this week features a steady train of moisture-loaded systems scooting east across the Southern Tier of the United States, and a steady train of energetic but moisture starved systems racing across the Northern Tier - including New England.  If the supply of moisture and energy were to team up, a large storm would be the result - but it looks as though this merger of northern and southern stream systems will occur far enough east to avoid major storm development along the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days.

The result, therefore, will be periods of increased clouds and chances for light snow and flurries with these passing energy centers, all of which should amount to very little through most of New England, with possible exceptions in the mountainous terrain, where precipitation from incoming Canadian disturbances can often be enhanced.

After a mostly sunny start to Presidents' Day for most of New England with clouds and flurries lingering in the mountains of the North Country, most of New England will enjoy sunshine through our Monday, and this sun will help to boost temperatures to around 30 in many locales.  Late Monday, high-altitude clouds will increase in association with one of these active northern stream energy centers, though without much moisture, these clouds will do little more than mix with the sunshine to end the day, and these will maintain scattered cloud cover overnight Monday night.  Still, most areas will drop into the single digits and teens with light winds.

Tuesday will be a similar setup for New England, with an energetic disturbance dropping overhead later in the day.  The subtle difference on Tuesday will be that the moist southern stream will inch ever-so-slightly closer, and this may provide just enough moisture on its northern periphery to provide a period of flurries or very light snow later Tuesday into Tuesday evening.  Little or no accumulation would result, except for the mountains which may see a fluffy inch or two.

It's likely that this similar pattern will continue for the next few days - allowing southern moisture and northern energy to get only close enough to enhance one another a bit, before phasing just far enough east of the coastline to spare us from any hearty storm development.  The result will be increased cloud cover and periodic flurries or very light snow again later Wednesday and Wednesday night.  By Thursday, the merger of northern energy and southern moisture will occur close enough to New England, that we'll be keeping a close eye on how the pattern unfolds, as it's possible this development will be close enough to enhance the period of snow just a bit for at least some of New England - especially the farther northeast one is.  Regardless, by Friday I expect a stronger push of northern energy to send a cold front through New England, reinforcing cold air and bringing yet another chance for snow showers, before a threat for merging energy and moisture brings an possible storm threat next weekend.

Enjoy the tranquil start to the week!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Monday, February 20 at 1:15 PM

Quiet pattern prevails in the short term with regard to sensible weather, tho the pattern is quite active aloft.  Separation of northern and southern streams prevents phasing and therefore mitigates a storm threat that last week I expected would be looming my the middle of this week.  Instead, northern and southern stream flow remain separate just long enough to keep secondary low pressure development far enough to our southeast to keep most of NewEng out of organized precip, at least in the short term, tho there is plenty to remain on-guard for by the middle and end of this week.

First, shortwave riding overhead later today brings increasing high altitude clouds but otherwise dry low level air squashes out lingering mountain flurries in the North.  Expect dry conditions overnight with overcast deck of cirrus in Northern NewEng, otherwise scattered cirrus and cold temps that are kept just above the dewpoint in most areas thanks to a light wind, though sheltered valleys are likely to decouple and areas of freezing fog are possible in the deepest valleys.

The shortwave squeeze is on for Tuesday with one vorticity maximum strung out in confluent flow passing immediately south of NewEng, and the other a strong and more consolidated vort max dropping southeast through Ontario and into NewEng Tue afternoon.  While the southern stream vort is devoid of much moisture, there may be just enough moisture input to enhance the approaching northern stream vort and crank out flurries and perhaps even periods of light snow Tue afternoon/evening producing little or no accumulation in most of Central/Southern NewEng (it will take a lot of factors coming together just to produce this light snow/flurry activity) but likely to deposit a couple of fluffy inches from the Northern Berkshires through the Greens and Whites and into the mountains of Maine Tue Ngt.

A similar pattern continues through Wednesday when another southern stream wave misses south while the northern stream partner rides overhead, wringing out another couple of fluffy inches for the mountains Wednesday eve and night, while the rest of NewEng sees another period of increased clouds and periods of light snow or flurries.  There are some indications of weak troffing setting up over Central and Southern NewEng, and it's possible that the snow would gain enough life for some measurable QPF depositing a dusting of Wednesday night snow - but at this point that's all that looks reasonable.

Thursday and Thursday night we pay closer attention to this weather pattern as a much stronger vort max drops across NewEng and amplifies shortwave troffing just off our coastline.  The result will be for a deepening area of low pressure east of NewEng, but troffing will extend NW across the St. Lawrence River Valley.  The result at the surface is for a surface trough reflection - a well defined and extensive Norlun trough that sets up under a cold pool of air at 500 mb approaching temps of -40 C!  The GFS is doing a remarkable job of picking up on precip associated with this trough Thu Ngt into Fri, and while the 84 hr NAM runs out to Thu eve, it's clearly picking up on the precip potential with the strong northern stream vort.  So, this certainly gives most of NewEng something to watch very carefully, and means you won't hear my hum-drumming the forecast beyond Wednesday, as I'd rather not be caught surprised if this trough lights up.  There is good low level convergence with this feature and a jet streak wrapping into the SW side of the developing mid and upper level circulation, which places the streak over Wrn NY/PA/Nrn NJ, increasing diffluence over NewEng.  So, more plentiful bursts of snow are in my forecast for late Thu into Fri, and at least some accumulation is possible.

I have to be quite honest that I do not trust this pattern at all.  The flow to our west is flat and fast, and this means lots of shortwaves embedded in the flow, streaking in from the north, streaking in off the Pacific and through the Pacific NW, and then an active subtropical jet streaking shortwaves in from the south, laden with moisture.  These shortwaves all are coming from low observation density areas, and meteorologists need to step cautiously having this understanding.  It appears as though Thursday into Friday will be the first of this careful stepping, and this weekend will represent the next.

Have a great Presidents' Day.

Matt


Damaging Wind Event Unfolding for New England Friday...Bitter Wintry Weekend In Store

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis (New!):  A strengthening storm moving north of New England on Friday will drag its associated strong cold front across New England, swinging a line of downpours and embedded thunder through New England mid-morning (west) through early-afternoon (east).  Winds will blow at 20-40 mph with gusts over 65 mph Friday afternoon, and this will be enough wind for damage to tree limbs and power lines, and storm warnings are up for most coastal waters.  Rain will change to afternoon snow across Northern New England, where a couple of inches will fall in the higher terrain while the remainder of New England dries out behind the downpours but continues to see damaging winds.  Cold air comes screaming into New England on these winds, with a bitter Friday night giving way to a windy and frigid Saturday, though winds are likely to be below damaging criteria over the weekend.  A reinforcing shot of cold air during the day on Saturday will carry snow squalls from the Canadian border to northern Massachusetts, producing reduced visibility and leaving slick spots on some roadways in its wake.  Cold conditions continue through Sunday, and a weak disturbance may bring light snow late Monday after increasing clouds.  Thickening clouds are in the forecast again for later Tuesday, with another chance of snow Tuesday night.  Enjoy your weekend - see you back here on Monday! -Matt

General Weather Summary:  Late update due to lots of weather coverage here at NECN - please tune in for the latest on this unfolding damaging wind event.

The counter-clockwise flow of air around a strengthening area of low pressure moving north of New England will drag a fierce cold front across New England from west to east on Friday.  Early breaks of sunshine in Eastern New England will fade as a line of rapidly moving downpours with perhaps some embedded thunder charge east across New England from mid-morning (west) to early afternoon (east) along and ahead of this approaching cold front.  Expect winds to be gusty ahead of the front from the southwest, then shift to the west behind the front, sustained (steady) at 20-40 mph with gusts over 65 mph at times, strong enough to down tree limbs, trees and power lines.  Reported gusts this morning from Rochester and Syracuse have been 75 and 77 mph, respectively, and localized gusts greater than 70 mph certainly will be a possibility through New England on Friday.  The strongest winds with the highest threat for damage come behind the lines of downpours (some areas are likely to see two rounds - monitor radar from my homepage to track these areas of rain) centered from early afternoon through suppertime.  These howling winds will be carrying cold air back into New England - a chunk of deep arctic air that has been consistently producing temperatures of -30 to -40 degrees along and north of the Canadian border for the past several days.  Though the air certainly will modify on its travel into New England, there is no question this will be a mighty cold airmass.

After a couple of inches of fresh snow Friday afternoon into Friday night across the mountains of Northern New England thanks to arctic cold air spilling in and squeezing moisture out of the atmosphere, winds will remain gusty into and through Saturday.  Though the air will be dry enough for Saturday morning sunshine, and it will be plenty cold at the surface, the air aloft will be even more frigid, and this will make the atmosphere "unstable" - favorable for clouds and precipitation to develop.  The result should be billowing clouds mixing with sunshine through the day, and as an upper level disturbance at the jet stream level dives into New England, it will push a reinforcing shot of arctic chill southward at the surface.  This second cold front will spawn Saturday morning and afternoon snow squalls from north to south, respectively, reducing visibility and creating slick road conditions as they move through...with a few of these likely reaching as far south as the Massachusetts Turnpike Saturday afternoon.  Winds will gust up to 50 mph Saturday afternoon, which is near but just below damaging criteria, and this wind combined with the brutally cold temperatures will bring wind chill values into the single digits in Southern New England and below zero across the north!

With the center of this cold high pressure cell still moving closer to us on Sunday, expect actual temperatures to be even colder!  Winds will abate somewhat, however, (though still breezy) and this will help conditions to feel a *little* more bearable.  Enough dry air will be in place - and no strong upper level disturbances are expected - that most areas can plan on a dry blend of sunshine and a few clouds.

The pattern for early next week is likely to turn a little more favorable for snow here in New England, as our cold airmass releases its grip a bit, allowing warmer and more moist air to move toward us, bringing a higher chance of snow.  Additionally, as low level and surface winds come onshore, we will input Atlantic moisture to our arctic airmass, and this often is favorable to increase chances for snow.  Finally, a storm center will be passing south of New England, and while the exact track of the low pressure center is still in question, there is a chance for at least the northern extent of this snow shield to reach into New England.

Next update Monday morning - see you then!

Technical Discussion:  None today.  See you Monday.

Matt


Bitter Blast to Bring Damaging Winds...Gives the Cold Shoulder for the Weekend

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For latest radar imagery, to check for watches and warnings, and for links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis (New!):  Areas of morning fog on Cape Cod and through Connecticut are evidence of increased moisture in the atmosphere, and while patchy black ice begins the day through most of New England, the icy spots will be a bit more widespread in these areas.  The ice, fog and low-altitude clouds in these areas will all melt away quickly as Thursday brings another gorgeous and mostly sunny day.  A weak cool front settled south across New England last night, and this will keep temperatures cooler than yesterday in most of northeastern New England, and even along the Southern New England coasts where a light seabreeze will develop.  Farther inland, temperatures will rise well into the 50's, and a few lucky areas will make a run at 60 degrees.  An approaching storm throws 3"-6" of snow across Northern Maine Thursday night while the remainder of New England stays mainly dry with winds kicking up after midnight.  Expect this storm's associated strong cold front to march across New England on Friday, swinging a line of downpours and embedded thunder through New England Friday mid-morning through early-afternoon.  Winds will blow at 20-40 mph with gusts over 65 mph Friday afternoon, and this will be enough wind for damage to tree limbs and power lines.  Rain will change to afternoon snow across Northern New England, where a couple of inches will fall in the higher terrain.  Cold air comes screaming into New England on these winds, with a bitter Friday night giving way to a windy and frigid Saturday, though winds are likely to be below damaging criteria over the weekend.  Cold conditions continue through Sunday, and our next chance of snow comes late Monday and especially on Tuesday. -Matt

General Weather Summary:  Any areas of black ice, fog and low altitude clouds across extreme Southern New England - and patchy black ice elsewhere, where melted snow refroze during the overnight - will melt away quickly today, leaving plenty of sunshine and just a few clouds for most areas.  The morning surface weather analysis places an area of cold high pressure to our north, east of James Bay Canada, a center of warm high pressure to our south off the Carolina coastline, and a strong but temporarily stalled out stationary front sandwiched between these two airmasses, from Cleveland to Boston.  This front represents the dividing line between the two sharply contrasting airmasses we've been watching together in these discussions over the past few days, and the temperature boundary that will become so important in our forecast the next 48 hours.

This front settled slowly southward overnight Wednesday night, and the weak drain of cool air behind it will allow for light onshore winds to develop through most of coastal New England today - and with ocean water temperatures running around 40 degrees, this will be a cooling effect to counteract the mild air that's in place.  Farther inland, however, away from the effects of the ocean waters, temperatures will once again climb well into the 50's with a light wind and plenty of sunshine to go around.  Those of us in Northern VT and NH will find thickening afternoon clouds as an area of rain and snow showers expands east out of Upstate New York, and will likely bring a few rain and snow showers to the mountains of far northern New England Thursday afternoon.

Expect mostly cloudy skies in many areas Thursday night as a storm center positioned over Oklahoma early Thursday morning ripples east along the stalled out frontal boundary, strengthening as it feeds off of the clashing airmasses to either side of its path.  As moisture rides out well ahead of the circulation center, rain showers will continue periodically along and near the Canadian border, and snow will fall in Northern Aroostook County, ME, where 3"-6" will fall by Friday morning.

The counter-clockwise flow of air around this strengthening area of low pressure will draw more warm and relatively moist air northward into New England on Friday, forcing the same front that had been stalled across our area Thursday to push northward as a warm front in response to increasing southerly winds.  No sooner does this front push through Northern Maine, changing Thursday night snows to Friday mid-morning rain showers, than the approaching storm center moves north of New England, dragging the opposite end of the fierce front southeast as a cold front.  Although some breaks of sunshine are possible in Eastern New England early in the morning, skies will become mostly cloudy for all spots and a line of rapidly moving downpours with perhaps some emedded thunder will charge east across New England from mid-morning to early afternoon along and ahead of this approaching cold front.  Expect winds to be gusty ahead of the front from the southwest, then shift to the west behind the front, sustained (steady) at 20-40 mph with gusts over 65 mph at times, strong enough to down tree limbs, trees and power lines.  These winds howl as they carry cold air back into New England - you and I have been watching just how cold these -30 to -40 degree temperatures have been north of the border in these discussions, and though the air certainly will modify on its travel into New England, there is no question this will be a mighty cold airmass.

After a couple of inches of fresh snow Friday afternoon into Friday night across the mountains of Northern New England thanks to arctic cold air spilling in and squeezing moisture out of the atmosphere, winds will remain gusty into and through Saturday.  Though the air will be dry enough for Saturday morning sunshine, and it will be plenty cold at the surface, the air aloft will be even more frigid, and this will make the atmosphere "unstable" - favorable for clouds and precipitation to develop.  The result should be an increase in clouds through the day, and as an upper level disturbance at the jet stream level dives into New England, it will push a reinforcing shot of arctic chill southward at the surface.  This second cold front will spawn Saturday afternoon snow squalls in Northern New England, and a few snow showers may sneak into Southern New England closer to Saturday evening.  Winds will gust over 35 mph Saturday afternoon, and this wind combined with the brutally cold temperatures will bring wind chill values into the single digits in Southern New England and below zero across the north!

With the center of this cold high pressure cell still moving closer to us on Sunday, expect actual temperatures to be even colder!  Winds will abate somewhat, however, (though still breezy) and this will help conditions to feel a *little* more bearable.  Enough dry air will be in place - and no strong upper level disturbances are expected - that most areas can plan on a dry blend of sunshine and a few clouds.

The pattern for early next week is likely to turn more favorable for snow here in New England, as our cold airmass releases its grip a bit, allowing warmer and more moist air to move toward us, bringing a higher chance of snow.  Additionally, as low level and surface winds come onshore, we will input Atlantic moisture to our arctic airmass, and this often is favorable to increase chances for snow.  Finally, a storm center will be passing south of New England, and while the exact track of the low pressure center is still in question, there is a chance for at least the northern extent of this snow shield to reach into New England.

Item of note:  Wednesday's high of 54 in Burlington, VT, was a record for the date.

Enjoy your Thursday!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Thursday, February 15 at 3:15 PM

Amazing cold air drainage display in Champlain Valley today created busted temps for yours truly but a wonderful spectacle of nature.  It's funny that I can talk up how much we need to respect this awesome dome of dense cold air but then still overlook this, but it truly is evidence of just how massive this cold air is.  Expect cold air to remain entrenched across the valleys of the far north (near the Canadian border, like BTV) to result in freezing rain showers to start the night before stronger gradient takes over and sweeps warmer air back in.  Snow continues to fall over Northern ME where 3"-6" fall in NorthernAroostook County - probably on the higher side of that range by Fri AM.

Not much change to the Friday forecast - vort max swings thru midday so band of convective downpours will swing thru mid-morning to early afternoon from W to E.  Mixing to 925 mb prefrontal with winds at 925 mb cranking to 70 kts, then mixing to 850 mb postfrontal with llvl jet around 65 kts, so damaging wind threat exists both ahead of and behind front, though to pinpoint times I'd say warm sector winds either side of 15Z and strongest period of cold advection around 21-00Z will be the times of greatest concern for damage.  Ptype change in Northern New Eng Fri afternoon with 1-3" of fresh snow most mountains, and amounts exceeding 5" Northern Greens higher terrain.  Rainfall amounts won't be significant, and enough drying due to wind speed/dry air advection occurs that we avoid flash freezing most areas as precip evaporates first.

Damaging wind threat subsides after 00Z, but wind continues to crank thru Sat with another arctic front dropping south Saturday midday.  SUNYSB MM5 indicates squalls survive all the way into Northern MA with lake effect band input off Lake Ontario and I don't see why we shouldn't trust that, as sfc convergence and instability under cold pool could counteract downsloping flow at least to Route 2 corridor, though Boston area is less likely to find squalls making it in.

The models are warming the boundary layer on Sunday but I can't believe that given 850 temps still bottoming out, ridge axis still to our W and that means northwest flow continues.  Those who read regularly know my respect for this cold air and therefore know why I've been at least 10 degrees under MOS.  MOS guidance still hasn't caught up, but that's fine - teens both weekend days for most areas will cut it.  Could top 20 south of the MA Turnpike but that'd be about it.  Blustery wind esp Saturday keeps chills single digits and below zero north...bit better on Sun as gradient relaxes.

Next week's pattern features multiple storm threats.  Of course, together in this discussion you and I have been watching a Tuesday storm threat.  Ensembles have shifted flatter with this wave today, and operational models are also a bit flatter.  But...that doesn't mean we should forget about it.  Synoptically, high pressure shifts off the Eastern Seaboard and easterly to southeasterly flow sets up with arctic air still in place.  This should hasten a northward ride of moisture up the coast later Monday as a shortwave rides south of NewEng, and I've introduced chance snow later Monday resultantly.  Next shortwave is the one we've been watching and is much stronger than its predecessor.  Though flow is progressive, there is clearly a surface trough bridging low over Southern Canada and frontal wave to our south, and I don't think we've heard the last of this shortwave.  Given fast flow, models are having a bit of a difficult time wrapping around this thing, and while I've seen circumstances where you get strong signals for weeks leading up to an event and it all falls apart in the last few days, I'm not sold on that being the case here.  The northern and southern stream shortwaves are located off the Pacific NW coast and east of Hawaii, respectively.  These are both in data sparse areas and if the models were going to drop the ball it would be between now and Saturday morning, so I still think this is a storm threat that needs to be watched carefully, and while I will certainly acknowledge that none of us can get too overly excited about a solution that now is being indicated by literally none of the guidance, I also will be maintaining snow in the forecast for Tuesday for the time being, and I'm not going to give up on this until after Saturday 12Z model runs come back.

That's all for today...a short one but I wanted to get my thoughts out to you.

Have a great day.

Matt