Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
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Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: Our Tuesday dawns with expanding cloud cover ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. There is very little moisture available in the atmosphere, however, so for most of New England this disturbance will simply result in a tendency for more clouds than sun through the day Tuesday, allowing for an occasional flurry. Across the mountains of the North Country, repetitive snow showers Tuesday afternoon into the first half of Tuesday night will deposit a couple of fresh fluffy inches of snow, continuing an amazing week of skiing in Northern New England. Elsewhere, expect gradually clearing skies Tuesday night as drier air moves in aloft. Wednesday dawns with sunshine, then clouds build during the late afternoon with a few flurries possible once again, especially in the hilly and mountainous terrain. By Thursday, a series of somewhat stronger upper level disturbances move toward and across New England, bringing plenty of clouds and a few light showers of rain and snow from time to time - again, enhanced in the mountains. Thursday night into Friday, it's possible that we'll see some enhancement to these snow showers as a bit more moisture becomes available, and some light accumulation may result for even parts of Central or Southern New England. Expect a dry start to the weekend, though a stronger storm may be able to tap Southern moisture for a more widespread snow on Sunday. Enjoy your Tuesday! -Matt
General Weather Summary: Reports from some of you seeing the beautiful show this morning of Jupiter in the southern sky - between 5 and 6 AM - just up and to the right of the moon. Though clouds have filled in since then, I do expect them to clear out overnight and this should make for another great show - the last of the truly brilliant displays - at this time again Wednesday morning.
The overall weather pattern this week continues to feature a steady train of moisture-loaded systems scooting east across the Southern Tier of the United States, and a steady train of energetic but moisture starved systems racing across the Northern Tier - including New England. If the supply of moisture and energy were to team up, a large storm would be the result - but it looks as though this merger of northern and southern stream systems will occur far enough east to avoid major storm development along the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days.
The result, therefore, will be periods of increased clouds and chances for light snow and flurries with these passing energy centers, all of which should amount to very little through most of New England, with possible exceptions in the mountainous terrain, where precipitation from incoming Canadian disturbances can often be enhanced.
One of these upper level disturbances is racing into New England on Tuesday, and has resulted in blossoming cloud cover for many areas. At times, these clouds will be thin enough for breaks of sunshine, largely owing to the dry nature of the air in place across New England, so that even disturbances of moderate strength like the one moving through today have trouble mustering up more than just blossoming clouds in the middle and high altitudes, producing no more than isolated flurries or light snow showers. The exceptions to this rule can be found in the mountains, where winds push up against the mountain faces, and this forces air upward. Referred to as "upslope flow", this rising air is a necessary component to cloud formation, and the result is for enhanced clouds and snow showers in the higher terrain of the Green and White Mountains, and of the mountains of Maine, where a couple of fresh fluffy inches are possible in the higher elevations from late Tuesday afternoon through midnight Tuesday night. Elsewhere, expect a day of more clouds than sun, overall, to give way to gradual overnight clearing.
Wednesday will dawn with sunshine for most areas, then another approaching upper level disturbance will bring increasing late day clouds, as the fast moving flow of energetic but moisture-starved weather systems continues from Canada. Each disturbance that passes through DOES eventually meet with more appreciable moisture, though this "phasing" of the northern energy and southern moisture continues to occur just far enough east of the coastline to spare us from any hearty storm development. By Thursday, the merger of northern energy and southern moisture will occur close enough to New England, that we'll be keeping a close eye on how the pattern unfolds, as it's possible this development will be close enough to enhance the period of snow just a bit for at least some of New England - especially the farther northeast one is. This possible enhancement will occur as one Northern Stream disturbance over the St. Lawrence River Valley (north of New England) forms a weak link with a strengthening disturbance dropping southeast of the New England coastline. The interaction between these two disturbances may evidence itself as a weak disturbance at the surface, known as a "trough," which represents a wind shift and a line of enhanced precipitation. In fact, with very cold air moving in about 18,000 feet high in the sky - to the tune of 40 degrees below zero - a condition known as "instability" will result. This instability is the difference between the frigid air aloft and *relatively* warm air at ground level, and the presence of instability favors cloud and precipitation development - remember that warm air rises, and this type of a setup allows warm air to rise high in the sky, like a head of steam, resulting in clouds and often precipitation, as well. The combination of this instability and the nearby trough may result in a "Norlun Instability Trough", which is a fancy term that refers to the atmospheric setup where instability and a trough can team together to provide enhanced snowfall in a thin line, which can drop accumulating snow in the extremely localized areas that are affected. These are tricky disturbances, however, and we'll wait to see how this plays out over the next 48-72 hours.
Regardless, by Friday I expect a stronger push of northern energy to send a cold front through New England, reinforcing cold air and bringing yet another chance for snow showers, and ushering in drier air to start our weekend. Signs are that moisture will return by Sunday, when a chance of snow returns to the forecast.
Enjoy your Tuesday!
Technical Discussion: No technical discussion today. Should have one out tomorrow (Wednesday). Have a great day!
Matt
