Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
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Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: A strengthening area of high pressure is shifting off the U.S. East Coast today, and will help to transport deep warm air northward through the Ohio Valley, to our west. This warmth will gradually filter into New England on Thursday with a light wind and plenty of sunshine mixed with only a few clouds, boosting temperatures well into the 60s after a cool start in many communities. Even our seaside towns, kept cooler by sea breezes the last few days, will warm above 60 degrees, then will find temperatures dropping during the afternoon once the sea breeze circulation develops after midday. Expect a light southwest wind to usher in the deeper warmth to New England Thursday night under clear skies, and by Friday, though clouds will dot the sky throughout the day, temperatures will rise some 20 degrees or more above normal for this time of the year as many communities in Central and Southern New England climb into the lower 70s. Exceptions will be along south-facing shorelines where southwest winds at 15-25 mph with higher gusts will be blowing across cool ocean waters, holding these south-facing coastal communities to either side of 60 degrees. A line of thunderstorms over Ohio will weaken as it moves east Friday night, though a few showers and downpours will move through early Saturday morning. Breaks of sun are likely during the day Saturday amidst plenty of clouds, and another round of showers with a possible thunderstorm will swing through Saturday afternoon with the passage of a cold front. Behind this front, a breezy, cooler but still pleasant and bright day awaits for Sunday. The next wave of low pressure will bring thickening clouds Monday, with showers developing later in the day, followed by a cooler shot of air by midweek next week. Have a great Thursday. -Matt
General Weather Summary: A strengthening area of high pressure off the East Coast will help to tug deep warmth out of the Central United States and gradually filter it into New England on Thursday...with a more forceful surge of warm winds on Friday before a cool front brings our next chance of widespread showers on Saturday.
Since high pressure centers are also associated with sinking air, they tend to be responsible for fair weather, as well, and there will be no exception to that rule on Thursday. Light winds have been allowing for temperatures to cool in this dry airmass each night, but after a chilly start in many communities Thursday morning, tons of sunshine will quickly boost temperatures well above normal by Thursday afternoon. Much like the last couple of days, light winds will allow a sea breeze circulation to develop, but I don't expect this sea breeze to establish until after midday, giving most coastal towns enough time to rise above 60 degrees before temperatures fall at the coastlines during the afternoon as the breezes increase off the ocean waters...still running either side of 40 degrees. Inland, temperatures in the middle 60s will be widespread, and even towns along the Canadian border are likely to come close to if not exceed the 60 degree mark.
With very little precipitation recently, brush, grass and leaves on the field and forest floors that died last growing season remain quite dry. Lack of rain, low relative humidity, and active winds of the past few weeks have elevated the fire danger across New England, with conditions favorable for brush fires to develop, and fire crews have been battling minor brush fires across New England the past couple of weeks. Expect more of these fires to develop, and please keep in mind that the most common causes of fires like these are poorly managed burning and improperly disposed of smoking materials, like cigarettes! While fire is a concern for all areas, the waves that have put on quite a show at the coastline the past few days have calmed down for now, and though wave heights have come down signficantly since a few days ago, an astronomically high tide through the remainder of the week and into the weekend means a few areas may see some splashover from time to time during high tide cycles.
With the strengthening high pressure center over the Western Atlantic by Friday, and a strengthening low pressure system pulling from the Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes, the flow of air between these two weather systems will strengthen from the southwest, giving a boost to the northward surging warmth. Surface winds will blow from the southwest at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts possible, and the airmass heading our way has a history of producing daily high temperatures in the 60s and 70's, and as these temperatures move into New England on Friday, keep in mind those numbers are some 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year! Of course, there will be exceptions along south facing shorelines, where cold ocean waters only running barely above 40 degrees will temper the warmup for those coastal communities.
The storm to our west will draw northeast across the Great Lakes and into Canada by Friday night, bringing increasing and thickening clouds later Friday, well in advance of a line of thunderstorms that will be tearing across Ohio. While these thunderstorms will lose their punch as they migrate east overnight Friday night, they're likely to arrive as a band of showers, downpours and perhaps still a rumble of thunder late Friday night into early Saturday morning for New England, marching from west to east. A break in the action is expected for part of the day Saturday with mild air still in place for New England, then the approaching cold front will bring another round of scattered showers, downpours and thunder Saturday afternoon, with breezes shifting from southwest to northwest, and beginning the flow of a new airmass into New England. This new airmass will move in with colder air Saturday night - likely cold enough to change lingering mountain rain showers to snow showers in the northern mountains, where a couple of inches of fresh snow may fall in the higher terrain of the northern Greens and Whites. By Sunday, expect all of New England to reap the benefits of our new cool, dry airmass - that is, plenty of sunshine emerging with some puffy cumulus clouds in the North Country, and a "downsloping" wind sloping down from the mountains and thereby warming Central and Southern New England into the upper 50s to around 60 by Sunday afternoon with a refreshing breeze.
The next wave of low pressure to move toward New England will strengthen and slow as it approaches Western New York on Monday, throwing increasing clouds and a few showers into New England by Monday afternoon with a relatively cool southeast wind flow likely. This sluggish storm will pull into Southern Canada on Tuesday, dragging a cold front east across our region later Tuesday with additional showers and a shot of midweek chill.
Have a wonderful Thursday!
Matt
Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Thursday, March 30 at 2:45 PM
I think we covered things fairly well in both the short and extended period yesterday so while I'll encourage those of you who didn't catch yesterday's discussion to read it, I did still want to get some additional thoughts out today.
The first is regarding Friday's weather, which is still looking quite warm, of course, for all of NewEng. But there are a couple of things we can get right as meteorologists to add to the public perception of forecast quality. The first is surface winds, which...with a tightening pressure gradient should be southwest sustained 15-25 mph with gusts that may be up to 30 though shouldn't go much higher than that with good mixing but limited low level jet even at 850 mb where flow isn't more than 30 knots. The second is sky cover, which does not look to be as crystal clear as the last several days and though this doesn't show up in mid-level moisture plots, it becomes quite evident with widespread 80%+ RH progged across NewEng at 850 mb. This is the result of moderate low level moisture advection and will be sufficient for plenty of warm Cu to develop and I think the resultant sky cover is intervals of sun and clouds as some of these clouds may build to over 10K feet.
Saturday still looks like two rounds of precip, and as mentioned yesterday the first comes thanks to a lobe of vorticity riding east ahead of the main vorticity maximum. This is likely to initiate as a prefrontal line of convection that will move across Ohio Friday and then race well ahead of the front while losing upper level/dynamic support Fri Ngt and diminishing in intensity as it moves thru NewEng very early Sat AM with a line of showers, downpours, and perhaps a rumble of thunder given that we'll be in a warm/moist advecting pattern which does favor upglide and could provide synoptic scale lift to keep the line alive a bit more than it would be otherwise. A break will then follow for Sat when some sunshine is likely given a dry tongue of llvl air, then the cold front moves in later Sat with scattered showers/downpours and possible thunder in advance of it. Once vort max drives thru early Sat Ngt, cold advection can begin and still looks cold enuf for a couple of inches of upslope snow in the higher terrain of the Northern Mountains, which isn't many of you but some, and will be a wet pasty snow.
No changes to the thinking for Sunday. As for Monday/Tuesday, it's interesting to see the guidance agreeing on a slowing and strengthening storm from Western NY to SE Canada and this will bring warm advection clouds with a southeast flow on Monday, though there is question as to just how quickly that gets in here. At this point, morning sun seems like Mon in many areas, then clouds increasing and lowering thru the day with a few showers later in the day as warm and moist advection increases. When the front approaches Tue, should be a narrow warm conveyor belt before fropa, then the expected shot of chill advances south.
Otherwise, no further thoughts from yesterday. Have a wonderful day!
Matt
