Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
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Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: Deep warmth is moving into New England for our Friday on an increasing southwest wind that will bring breezy but summer-like conditions to New England Friday afternoon. Plenty of sunshine will be on hand with dry air in place, though a few clouds are likely to billow by later in the afternoon with increasing moisture, all areas will remain dry. The air moving in has a history of producing daily high temperatures near 70, and with our very dry conditions, we should actually be able to record temperatures a bit warmer than that in New England, though south-facing coastal communities will hold in the lower 60s thanks to the southwest wind blowing in from the ocean waters that are running either side of 40 degrees. Expect clouds to increase and thicken Friday night as a line of showers and thunderstorms moves east from the Ohio Valley and weakens, but still brings pre-dawn and morning showers with embedded downpours to New England early Saturday. A break in the action is likely in most areas around midday Saturday with some glimpses of sunshine possible and temperatures responding to that sun, but an afternoon cold front will bring another round of showers, downpours and even some thunderstorms. A few of these storms may contain frequent lightning and locally damaging winds in Western New England late Saturday! Behind the cold front, a dry and refreshing airmass will lock in sunshine and a pleasant breeze for Sunday. The next storm approaches with increasing clouds and late-day rain showers on Monday, and periodic showers will linger into Tuesday ahead of a midweek shot of noticeably cooler air. Have a wonderful weekend. -Matt
General Weather Summary: A strengthening area of high pressure off the East Coast will help to provide a steady supply of warm winds on Friday before a cool front brings our next chance of widespread showers on Saturday.
Since high pressure centers are also associated with sinking air, they tend to be responsible for fair weather, as well, and that's been the case this week. As this fair weather center retreats east, and the advancing storm and cold front move in from the west, winds will be more active than they've been through most of the week, blowing from the southwest at 15-25 mph with some gusts as high as 25-30 mph. As temperatures rise but moisture content in the air only rises gradually, relative humidity values will be low today, and this combination of dry conditions and an active wind has prompted a Red Flag Warning for part of Friday from the National Weather Service for parts of Southern New England. You can check out the latest warnings and advisories to the left of this discussion in the links offered, but the bottom line is that, with very little rain over the past several weeks, brush, grass and leaves on the field and forest floors that died last growing season remain quite dry. Fire crews have been battling minor brush fires across New England the past couple of weeks and I expect more of these fires to develop. As citizens, we can keep in mind that the most common causes of fires like these are poorly managed burning and improperly disposed of smoking materials, like cigarettes.
Nonetheless, while fire danger remains high, New Englanders will undoubtedly be reveling in the warmth - the warmest conditions since last fall and some 20-30 degrees above normal for the date across the six-state region! Thanks to a very warm day on this date in 1998, however, which boosted temperatures into the 80s regionwide, no major cities are expected to break records today. But a warm day sets us up for a warm night, with low temperatures only in the 40s, and even hovering in the 50s in a few locales, like the immediate Boston Metro area, and in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, where winds stay active. Though most of the night will be dry, I expect showers to move in from the west in the predawn hours of Saturday.
This first round of Saturday showers will be the remnants of downpours and thunderstorms that will be rumbling across the Ohio Valley on Friday, and though they will lose their punch significantly as they move into New England, I'm still expecting a showery start to the day for a lot of early risers across New England. Though this band of showers initially began along a cold front that's heading our way, they will have outrun the cold front by the time they arrive in New England, and this means we'll likely see a break with mild air still in place before the actual front arrives. Along with this break in precipitation midday Saturday will come some breaks of sunshine and an active southwest wind, which will team up to nudge temperatures into the 60s for most folks. Though many areas may break holes in the low-altitude clouds lingering from morning showers, I expect another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon as the cold front moves through New England. Some of these thunderstorms - especially in Western New England - may bring briefly heavy downpours, frequent lightning and even some localized damage due to high wind gusts. Once these showers, downpours and thunderstorms roll through Saturday afternoon and early evening, expect lingering clouds to gradually break Saturday night, though as colder air moves in behind the front, the higher terrain of the Northern Green and White Mountains are likely to see some overnight snow showers Saturday night which may drop an inch or two of snow.
By Sunday, expect all of New England to reap the benefits of our new cool, dry airmass - that is, plenty of sunshine emerging with some puffy cumulus clouds in the North Country, and a "downsloping" wind sloping down from the mountains and thereby warming Central and Southern New England around 60 by Sunday afternoon with a refreshing breeze.
The next wave of low pressure to move toward New England will strengthen and slow as it approaches Western New York on Monday, throwing increasing clouds and a few showers into New England by Monday afternoon with a relatively cool southeast wind flow likely. This sluggish storm will pull into Southern Canada on Tuesday, dragging a cold front east across our region later Tuesday with additional showers and a shot of midweek chill.
Enjoy your weekend - I'll look forward to seeing you back here on Monday!
Technical Discussion: None today...see you Monday!
Matt
