Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
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Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: A large upper level storm centered northeast of New England will continue to spin cool air into the six-state region, and as the storm migrates overhead, plenty of clouds will fill in through the remainder of the week. Tuesday is likely to end up the pick of the workweek with sunshine giving way to building afternoon clouds but winds lighter than the past several days and temperatures rising into the 40s in Southern New England and 30s North. Clouds increase later Tuesday afternoon as the storm to our north shifts southward over us, and this will leave a mostly cloudy Tuesday night with mountain flurries. With the slow-moving upper level storm parked over New England through the week, expect more clouds than sun, cool conditions, and scattered flurries and snow showers regionwide all the way through the week! Indications are that high pressure will slide into Eastern Canada this weekend, which means a northeast wind is likely here in New England - this wind blowing off the cold ocean waters out of Canada is likely to bring continued mostly cloudy and cool weather into the weekend. Take heart...cloudy, grey and cool is typical late March and early April weather here in New England, and chances are good we'll see at least some sunshine on Wednesday, and breaks of sun at times the remainder of the week between our abundant cloud cover. -Matt
Weather Summary out later, as usual.
General Weather Summary: For a pattern that is producing intense and impressive storms across the nation, New England's weather will become exceptionally stagnant the latter half of this week. A large upper level storm circulation that has been swirling just north of New England will slowly migrate southward to a position directly over the six-state region over the course of this week. This will continue to make it very difficult for nature to respond to our man-made calendar call of Spring 2006, as our cooler-than-normal pattern remains locked in through the week, and - on average - through the beginning of April.
In the meantime, the influence of the persistent upper level storm to our north is keeping a broad area of surface low pressure spinning to our northeast, as well, and this will maintain an active wind from the northwest across New England, though less on Tuesday than the past several days. With the supply of deep cold air in Canada gradually shriveling, the increasingly strong mid to late-march sun angle will help to boost temperatures closer to, though still shy of, normal values. Nonetheless, this Canadian air, while perhaps not as cold as it's been, is still dry air, and dry air is highly dependent upon sunshine in order to warm - take away the sunshine, and you have a good bet at a very cool day. This won't be a problem on Tuesday, however, as dry air extends high enough into the atmosphere for mostly sunny skies to prevail early, then clouds will bubble up from north (late morning) to south (late afternoon). These clouds will be relatively low in altitude, and come as the result of cold air aloft that's moving southward into New England associated with our stubborn upper level storm. At the same time, higher altitude cirrus clouds are likely to move into the Southern third of New England late Tuesday on the northern fringe of a strong storm that's been dumping plenty of rain, snow and severe weather across most of the remainder of the Eastern United States. Thanks to the northwest flow of dry air associated with our upper level storm, the moisture-laden and energetic storm to our south will not be able to come any closer than throwing these high altitude clouds over Southern New England. It's important to note that with the continued relatively dry flow of air at the surface from the northwest, a high to very high fire danger threat continues across Central and Southern New Engalnd. Any red flag warnings or related statements regarding this danger, issued by the National Weather Service, can be found through my main webpage by clicking on the link for "current watches, warnings and advisories". Regardless of whether advisories are issued, caution should be used with any and all fires given this high danger, and even with things like cigarette butts.
With the upper level storm to our north slowly settling southward and on top of our region, plenty of clouds will blanket New England through Tuesday night with mountain flurries. Given the approach of this disturbance from the north, Southern New England communities are the most likely to find breaks in the cloud cover, and are likely to see some breaks of sunshine between the clouds for the first half of the day Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, however, clouds will bubble up across nearly all of New England. As the strong southern storm that misses us moves east over the Western Atlantic, a weak disturbance in the atmosphere will join our stubborn northern storm to the departing ocean system. This disturbance is known as an "inverted trough" in the world of meteorology, because it extends from southeast to northwest, and may help to focus heavier snow showers and squalls through the mountains of Maine and Downeast coastline late Wednesday and especially Wednesday night. With the cold upper level storm meandering over New England through the remainder of the week, Thursday and Friday will also bring lots of clouds and a few flurries or sprinkles. Remember the nature of dry air - no sunshine to warm the atmosphere, and we're left with a cool day. Cool temperatures should reign along with clouds through the end of the week. By Friday, the upper level storm will slowly begin to deteriorate, and while this may allow for some breaks of sunshine Friday afternoon, the weekend isn't looking much brighter - at least not at this early juncture.
By Saturday, high pressure - a fair weather center - nudges east out of Southern Canada and toward New England. The problem here is that a northeast flow of wind is forecasted at the surface, and it's possible a northeast wind would still carry clouds and cool air into New England on Saturday. This will become more clear over the next couple of days, when I can ascertain just how moist any air brought our way on a northeast wind would be, but I'm leaning toward yet another cool and cloudy day on Saturday. By Sunday, it's possible that a more northerly wind direction could take over, keeping things cool but not as moist.
In the longer range, I expect an average pattern of below-normal-temperatures to continue through the first half of April! Remember, though, that "normal" temperatures continue to rise as the days wear on, so even below normal temperatures will still bring gradual warming. Nonetheless, even as the pattern shifts from deep cold to more shallow cold air domes by the beginning of April, the weather pattern will bring repeated areas of high pressure to the Canadian Maritimes, which means New England will remain quite vulnerable to strong "backdoor cold fronts" for the first half of April, which are cold fronts that come in from the northeast, rather than the normal direction from the west or northwest. The result of these types of fronts is often low altitude grey clouds and a cool flow off of chilly ocean waters. While this appears as though it may be the way we begin April, the Western United States and Western Canada will build significant warmth during the same time period, and once the pattern breaks - perhaps by the third week of April - that would open the door to a significant and sudden warmup. Remember...temperatures into the 80's aren't unheard of for later in April, so while the immediate future looks cool, there is plenty of hope for a warmup later in the game.
Enjoy your Tuesday!
Technical Discussion: Please refer to yesterday's technical discussion, which appears at the bottom of the post below.
Matt
