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BRIGHT BUT BRISK WEEKEND...OCEAN STORM SET TO MOVE WEST, AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Cool and dry Canadian air will continue building into New England through the weekend, associated with an area of high pressure settling south across Ontario and Quebec.  The result will be a stretch of mostly sunny but brisk days with daily high temperatures slightly below normal Friday through Sunday.  With relatively light winds, clear skies and dry air in place each night, temperatures will drop into the twenties across Northern, Central and Western New England and near freezing for most of Southern New England.  While we reap the benefits of the cool fair weather center, storms will be brewing both to our east - over the Canadian Maritimes - and to our west, over the Central Plains and Midwest.  Eventually, it's the ocean storm that will have the most influence on our weather, backing just far enough westward to bring windswept rain to New England on Monday, periods of rain and showers on Tuesday, lingering showers on Wednesday, and a cool and moist northeast flow of wind all the while.  -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

With an expansive area of cool Canadian high pressure sinking southeast out of Southern Ontario and Quebec, New England will enjoy a string of bright but brisk days just in time for the weekend.

Friday dawned with a blend of sun and clouds across Southern New England, and while a few puffy cumulus clouds may crop up from time to time through the day, the balance of Friday will feature plenty of sunshine as dry air continues to spill in both at the surface and aloft.  With an active wind from the north, and then shifting toward the northeast during the afternoon, cool air will continue to take hold of New England, holding temperatures slightly below normal for the date, and also bringing an onshore sea breeze influenced wind flow to eastern coastal communities, which will further limit temperature rises there.  While dry air warms easily with sunshine, it also can cool quickly at night given the right conditions for radiational cooling, and those conditions of clear skies and light winds will prevail across New England Friday night, allowing low temperatures to dip into the twenties across Northern, Central and Western New England, and either side of the freezing mark elsewhere.  Once again, don't forget to bring in those tender plants decorating the front step if they're not hardy enough to survive the cold!

Our tranquil weather will continue through the weekend as the center of high pressure gradually drifts over extreme Northern New England, locking in dry air for tons of sunshine Saturday and most of Sunday, but also locking in a northeasterly wind flow to keep us brisk.  While those of you who watch the weather carefully know that often a northeast wind can mean a cool and moist flow, I have no concerns of that nature thanks to the bone-dry nature of the air that will be in place.

With the weather so quiet here on the ground, it's tough to believe that it could be so active and so complex thousands of feet above our heads.  The reason for this activity is that the Northeast will remain under a "trough" in the jet stream winds aloft for the next several days.  Remember something I define often in these discussions, that the jet stream winds are the fast corridor of winds aloft - about 30,000-40,000 feet in the sky, that steer our storm systems and act as a thermostat for the atmosphere, separating cold air to the north from warm air to the south.  A "trough" in the jet stream means a dip in the winds, drooping southward and carrying cold air on the north side of the wind corridor.  So, with these jet stream winds taking a dip over the Northeast, this puts New England on the cool side of the thermostat for the next several days, and it also steers a series of upper level disturbances over New England, as they merge in the base of this jet stream trough, eventually developing a stronger storm east of New England by late this weekend.

Over the course of the weekend, the conglomeration of multiple upper level disturbances dropping into the Northeastern United States trough will encourage the development of a storm center east of New England, over the Canadian Maritimes.  There's plenty of moisture and energy available for this storm - most of it evident on satellite imagery off the coast of North Carolina and east of Bermuda - and these factors will combine to develop a potent storm over the Northwest Atlantic.  While the bulk of this potent storm will stay east of New England, we always need to be cognizant of the potential for bands of moisture to be thrown back westward from storm circulations like this, resulting in bands of clouds and sometimes showers, as well.  At this point, my take on this is that we're likely to see some increase in cloud cover later in the day Sunday, but we should stay dry during the daylight hours, though that won't be the end of the story with this ocean storm.

In fact, by Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, we'll be watching TWO storm systems - one will be the slow moving ocean storm to our east, and the other will be an equally slow-moving but moisture loaded system moving east across the Tennessee Valley, that will have produced widespread severe outbreaks across the nation's midsection all the way from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains to the Gulf Coast and Mississippi River Valley over the weekend.  These two storms will be separated by a narrow sliver of high pressure - an elongated fair-weather cell that will protect most of the Eastern Seaboard.  That being said, here in New England we won't be protected by this sliver of fair weather, thanks to the strengthening ocean storm to our east.  I'm expecting this storm to absorb several pieces of atmospheric energy as they drop into the jet stream trough, feeding the developing storm and tugging it ever so slowly but surely westward.  After spreading increasing clouds over New England later Sunday, rain bands on the western periphery of the storm circulation are likely to spread over New England Sunday night, with a windswept rain, heavy at times, on Monday a strong possibility as warmth and moisture wraps all the way around the top of the storm and into New England.

With lowering surface pressure to our southeast and east, this will increase winds across New England, and with a steady onshore northeast flow of wind beginning as of this writing on Friday, and continuing through the weekend before gaining intensity Monday into Tuesday in association with the developing storm, this raises the stakes for a significant player in the marine community.  Some folks have inquired about the chances of this storm comparing to the major Nor'Easter of last May, and at this point I don't see that as being the case for a number of reasons, largely the fact that this storm will reach peak intensity well east of New England, and will not be intensifying as it makes its closest pass to us.  Naturally, if I see anything that looks differently from this in my next update Monday morning, you'll know about it.  But even though this storm will not pack anywhere near the ferocity of the one imprinted on so many coastal New Englanders' memories from one year ago, there is still the potential for a decent blow, here.  Take, for instance, the fact that onshore northeast wind flow begins today (Friday) and will continue through the weekend, only strengthening as the storm develops to our east.  This develops a northeast and easterly fetch of several hundred miles over the open ocean, with a center of low pressure coming closer to New England all the while, and this will favor large swell that will probably last the first half of next week and may put a cut into money-making marine operations like fishing given swell that may exceed 10 feet early in the week.  Add to that an astronomically high tide cycle and we're looking at a situation that also bears watching for coastal flooding and beach erosion, dependent upon how close the surface center of low pressure passes.  Certainly, I see the potential there for winds to gust up to 50 mph at immediate coastal locations if everything comes together in a favorable setup for storm development. 

Once we're under the influence of this ocean storm, even as it begins to pull away later Tuesday and Wednesday, we're still likely to find plenty of clouds, cool conditions and periods of showers lingering as northeast surface flow continues.  Adding to this threat is the possibility that the energy associated from the storm in the nation's Heartland will eject east and result in new storm development near New England later Tuesday or Tuesday night, and though there's tremendous uncertainty with that given that it depends on how TWO storms evolve over the coming days, that could reinvigorate rains for a time during that period.

Have a great weekend - enjoy the bright and brisk conditions!

Technical Discussion:  Yesterday's is posted below (minus the parts that were directed toward yesterday's weather) in case you missed it...otherwise I tried to be as descriptive as possible in the General Weather Summary above.  Enjoy your weekend!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Reposted from Thursday, April 27 at 1:05 PM

.........

Lingering pockets of moisture in the lower levels on Fri evident as of this writing as Sc deck west of St. Lawrence River Valley in Southern Canada will allow clusters of clouds to pass through NewEng Fri from AM to PM.  These clouds may have some small effect on insolation but even so we should mix to about 850 mb, which doesn't help us to warm any as the air at that level is below 0 C and even with compressional heating of the parcel it will still have an overall cooling effect on the airmass, keeping most lower elevation temps in the lower to middle 50s, cooler on hilltops where there's less atmosphere to mix.

Saturday looks delightful with deep dry air and NewEng sandwiched between a strengthening and soon-to-be retrograding Maritime storm, and a moisture-loaded soaker with widespread severe weather outbreak from the Southern Plains to the Gulf Coast to the Upper Midwest from Fri Ngt thru Sun AM!

In the extended period it's becoming more and more clear that the GGEM was onto something important over the last few days by deepening and retrograding the Maritime storm.  It was of concern and respect for this springtime phenomenon of a strom developing in a climatologically favorable cyclogenesis region during April and May that I've maintained increasing clouds for later Sunday.  With additional guidance coming around to this solution of an amplified omega blocking pattern and a retrograding maritime storm, rain goes into the forecast for the start of the week, and it appears as though as the ridging to our west pinches off, energy from the potent Central US storm feeds into the ocean storm piece by piece, aiding in retrogression and aiding in keeping warm advection wrapping around the storm and throwing precip into NewEng, along with what will likely be a cool northeast or east flow that will keep NewEng cool and cloudy thru Wed.

There are understandable concerns in the marine community regarding this storm, given memories of the May nor'easter from last year, and I would expect those of you in the marine community to remain interested in how things develop as the memory of one year ago is renewed.  At this point, I don't see something as severe as that anomaly, though the winds likely will crank especially on Monday night through Tuesday.  The reason I say that is because we'll see the surface reflection of a retrograding upper low on Monday which will tighten the pressure gradient from the northeast and kick the winds up later Monday, but by Tuesday the remaining energy associated with the Central US storm will kick east as an upper low and pass south of NewEng on Tuesday, and though this storm will have already matured at the surface over the weekend, it will likely form a reinvigorated surface low as it approaches the mean trough position off the NewEng coastline.  I think the bigger concern is for large swell on NewEng waters for the first half of last week that may limit offshore money-making potential given that we'll be dealing with a strengthening onshore flow with a fetch that will extend all the way from the Grand Banks to NewEng and set up later Sunday all the way thru midweek in a time of high tide cycles.  So, while this storm doesn't appear to be as violent as the one of one year ago, keep in mind that it still may have some marine impacts to be contended with.

FYI...I'll probably try to address this in the General Wx Summary tomorrow and repost the techie discussion unless there are some noteworthy thoughts or unless I'm well ahead of schedule.

Have a great afternoon.

Matt

COOL CANADIAN AIR TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  With a cold front draped over New England and sagging southward across Southern New England today, we'll find the focus for some puffy cumulus clouds to develop Thursday afternoon, and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike a few of these clouds may grow just barely tall enough for a few sprinkles or very light showers of rain.  The bulk of the day, however, and the bulk of the region, will stay dry under a blend of sun and clouds and hihg temperatures slightly above normal for the day.  This cool front marks the leading edge to a reinforcing shot of cool and dry air that will settle into New England Thursday night, bringing temperatures into the twenties and thirties.  This cool start Friday will yield a cool finish, as well, even though sunshine will be plentiful, and with a large area of high pressure - fair weather - building over New England from Canada for the weekend, expect continued bright but brisk conditions.  Clouds are likely to increase later Sunday as a developing ocean storm over the Canadian Maritimes backs westward toward New England, and this storm will most likely bring a period of cloudy, cool and showery weather for the first half of next week.  -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

Morning surface analysis indicates a cold front is draped across Central New England Thursday morning, and this boundary is the leading edge to a reinforcing push of cold and dry air settling southward into New England from Canada.  While this cold front sparked plenty of rain and snow showers across Northern New England on Wednesday evening, the dry nature of the air is likely to only allow for puffy cumulus clouds to build high enough for a few sprinkles or light rain showers south of the Massachusetts Turnpike later Thursday afternoon.

The stubborn cold front will finally clear New England by Thursday evening as a new area of cool Canadian high pressure settles south and east toward New England.  This air is cold enough in nature to bring us the coldest night of these chilly overnight periods thus far, with widespread lows in the twenties across Northern, Central and Western New England, as well as deeper valleys in Southern New England.  Most cities in New England recorded fairly cold temperatures in the middle 1940 (1945 and 1947) on April 28, so it's unlikely that lots of spots will record record low temperatures Friday morning, though a few spots may set record cold.  Regardless, it's another night of bringing in delicate flowers or plants you may have decorating the front steps!

With a clockwise flow of air around centers of high pressure, this will yield a northerly wind on Friday, and at the eastern coastlines, a bit of an ocean component is likely, as well.  The northerly wind flow, combined with a shallow layer of high enough moisture for some puffy cumulus cloud development through the day Friday, will ensure that New England remains cool, though the surface high pressure cell of fair weather will keep most areas dry. 

Though an area of high pressure - a fair weather cell - will build in at the surface, the atmospheric situation aloft is somewhat more complex.  Over the last couple of days in this discussion, together you and I have been discussing a trough (a dip) in the jet stream winds over New England.  Remember that the jet stream winds race high in the sky and are responsible for steering storm systems and acting as a thermostat, separating cold air to the north from warmer air to the south.  With these jet stream winds taking a dip over the Northeast, this puts New England on the cool side of the thermostat for the next several days, and it also steers a series of upper level disturbances over New England, as they merge in the base of this jet stream trough over the next several days, eventually developing a stronger storm east of New England by late this weekend.  In the meantime, however, each upper level energy center racing through aloft provides the impetus for showers, if only the effects of this energy could overpower the dry air that will be in place.  While this looks unlikely, it's at least worth noting that if any of these disturbances are stronger than currently forecasted, a sprinkle could develop either Friday or Saturday afternoon.  Barring stronger upper level disturbances, however, I continue to expect dry, mostly sunny and brisk conditions to persist into the weekend.

By Sunday, the conglomeration of multiple upper level disturbances dropping into the Northeastern United States trough will encourage the development of a storm center east of New England, over the Canadian Maritimes.  While the bulk of this potent storm will stay east of New England, we always need to be cognizant of the potential for bands of moisture to be thrown back westward from storm circulations like this, resulting in bands of clouds and sometimes showers, as well.  At this point, my take on this is that we're likely to see some increase in cloud cover during the day Sunday - especially later in the day - but we're also likely to stay dry.

By Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, we'll actually have our eye on two storm systems - one will be the slow moving storm to our east, and the other will be an equally slow-moving but moisture loaded system moving east across the Tennessee Valley.  There are a couple of possibilities as to how this plays out, but no matter how you cut it, chances are good for showers each of the first three days next week.  One possibility is for the storm to our east to gradually east away from New England, allowing the next slow moving heavy-rain maker to trudge east toward New England, but this scenario is seeming a bit less likely.  The most likely scenario, at least from guidance I have thus far, is for the storm east of New England to gradually move westward toward New England, throwing bands of rain showers into New England around the Western periphery of the storm on Monday.  By Tuesday and Wednesday, it appears as though pieces of energy will break off of the new potent storm to our west, feeding into the ocean storm and allowing bands of showers to continue backing in off of the ocean through midweek.  This would bring a prolonged period of cool, cloudy and at times showery conditions for a few days.

While there are still details to work out with the evolution of the storm for the beginning of next week, we'll focus on our stretch of bright but brisk weather, timed well for the weekend.

Have a wonderful Thursday.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Thursday, April 27 at 1:05 PM

Cold front evident this morning in wind shift, pressure analysis and weak surface Theta-E gradient with wave of low pressure rippling along front thru Hudson Valley as of this writing and set to move over Southern NewEng Thu afternoon.  The passage of the cold front and low pressure wave, coupled with about 100-200 J/kg of CAPE and little if any convective inhibition will aid in healthy Cu development along and south of the MA Turnpike where a sprinkle or light rain shower is possible around time of max heating Thu afternoon.  Elsewhere, dry airmass in place and negative theta-e advection continues from the north with wind shift behind the front.  With this airmass in place overnight and winds diminishing, conditions favorable for cooling and widespread 20s are likely in a large portion of NewEng, lower 30s many remaining Southern locations which is near dewpoint so areas of fog and frost are likely.

Lingering pockets of moisture in the lower levels on Fri evident as of this writing as Sc deck west of St. Lawrence River Valley in Southern Canada will allow clusters of clouds to pass through NewEng Fri from AM to PM.  These clouds may have some small effect on insolation but even so we should mix to about 850 mb, which doesn't help us to warm any as the air at that level is below 0 C and even with compressional heating of the parcel it will still have an overall cooling effect on the airmass, keeping most lower elevation temps in the lower to middle 50s, cooler on hilltops where there's less atmosphere to mix.

Saturday looks delightful with deep dry air and NewEng sandwiched between a strengthening and soon-to-be retrograding Maritime storm, and a moisture-loaded soaker with widespread severe weather outbreak from the Southern Plains to the Gulf Coast to the Upper Midwest from Fri Ngt thru Sun AM!

In the extended period it's becoming more and more clear that the GGEM was onto something important over the last few days by deepening and retrograding the Maritime storm.  It was of concern and respect for this springtime phenomenon of a strom developing in a climatologically favorable cyclogenesis region during April and May that I've maintained increasing clouds for later Sunday.  With additional guidance coming around to this solution of an amplified omega blocking pattern and a retrograding maritime storm, rain goes into the forecast for the start of the week, and it appears as though as the ridging to our west pinches off, energy from the potent Central US storm feeds into the ocean storm piece by piece, aiding in retrogression and aiding in keeping warm advection wrapping around the storm and throwing precip into NewEng, along with what will likely be a cool northeast or east flow that will keep NewEng cool and cloudy thru Wed.

There are understandable concerns in the marine community regarding this storm, given memories of the May nor'easter from last year, and I would expect those of you in the marine community to remain interested in how things develop as the memory of one year ago is renewed.  At this point, I don't see something as severe as that anomaly, though the winds likely will crank especially on Monday night through Tuesday.  The reason I say that is because we'll see the surface reflection of a retrograding upper low on Monday which will tighten the pressure gradient from the northeast and kick the winds up later Monday, but by Tuesday the remaining energy associated with the Central US storm will kick east as an upper low and pass south of NewEng on Tuesday, and though this storm will have already matured at the surface over the weekend, it will likely form a reinvigorated surface low as it approaches the mean trough position off the NewEng coastline.  I think the bigger concern is for large swell on NewEng waters for the first half of last week that may limit offshore money-making potential given that we'll be dealing with a strengthening onshore flow with a fetch that will extend all the way from the Grand Banks to NewEng and set up later Sunday all the way thru midweek in a time of high tide cycles.  So, while this storm doesn't appear to be as violent as the one of one year ago, keep in mind that it still may have some marine impacts to be contended with.

FYI...I'll probably try to address this in the General Wx Summary tomorrow and repost the techie discussion unless there are some noteworthy thoughts or unless I'm well ahead of schedule.

Have a great afternoon.

Matt

A SERIES OF CHILLY MORNINGS LAY AHEAD AS COOL CANADIAN AIR ENVELOPS NEW ENGLAND

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  A cold start Wednesday morning for New England is indicative of the cool and dry Canadian airmass that has spread into New England.  Though dry air cools quickly at night, it also warms quickly with the help of sunshine, and plenty of sun will boost temperatures quickly today.  A new disturbance will drop south out of Canada and bring increasing afternoon clouds to the North Country with late-day and evening sprinkles and overnight showers of rain and snow (snowflakes primarily confined to the higher terrain).  Farther south, Central and Southern New England will remain dry through the day and night, though after a brisk southwest wind helps to boost temperatures during the afternoon, these temperatuers will fall once again to either side of freezing as winds diminish Wednesday night, and we should get used to chilly nights that will pose a danger to tender plants, as this airmass remains in New England into the upcoming weekend.  Though more sunshine is expected on Thursday, a weak cold front slowing over Southern New England may bring a sprinkle or light rain shower to far Southeastern New England Thursday afternoon.  By Friday, winds may take a bit of a northeast component, and this would reinforce cool air heading into the weekend.  Later Sunday, I'll carefully watch a storm to our east, though right now I don't see more than increasing late day clouds.  Next chance of widespread measureable rain may come either Monday night or Tuesday.  -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

Tuesday afternoon's sprinkles and showers moving through New England marked the leading edge of a new airmass that took hold overnight with plummeting temperatures.  After morning low temperatures in the twenties and thirties, Wednesday sunshine continues to boost those numbers to near 60 in many areas by day's end.  The dry and cool air that's moved into New England will stay with us for the next several days as deeper warmth and moisture will remain locked to our south, and this is likely to bring a decent weekend to many.

In the meantime, though one disturbance ushered in this cooler air, another strong upper level energy center is racing southeast across Southern Canada and heading for New England.  As is customary with approaching storm centers, the counter-clockwise flow of air around this disturbance will force winds out of the southwest, and as those winds gust up to 30 mph at times, warmer air will be slowly filtering back into New England, aided by the abundant sunshine.  The result will be to bring daily high temperatures near or even slightly above normal, though the cold morning lows will ensure that the overall average temperature for the day falls below normal.  While Central and Southern New England should find unabated sunshine as the result of the deep dry air in place, Northern New England will see an increase in clouds ahead of the approaching disturbance during the afternoon, and a few sprinkles are likely near the Canadian border late Wednesday.  Overnight Wednesday night, as this disturbance moves across Northern New England, its attendant cold front will sag southward across New England, bringing scattered showers of rain and snow to the North Country, with snowflakes primarily confined to the higher terrain.  In Central and Southern New England, the air will likely be too dry to allow anything more than scattered clouds, though temperaures may still fall into the thirties - cold enough to bring in the tender flowers or plants you may have decorating the front steps!

With plenty of dry air in place, Thursday will dawn with sunshine in most areas - save, perhaps, for lingering clouds in the Northern Mountains - and once again, this sunshine will be needed to assist in rebounding from a chilly start.  The subtle feature I'm watching for Thursday, however, is the same cold front slated to bring the rain and snow showers to the North Country the night prior.  This front will be slow-moving as it sluggishly trods southward across Southern New England on Thursday, and even though we'll have plenty of dry air in place, it's entirely possible that the wind shift associated with this front will help to cause "convergence" - or air coming together in one spot - and this often can result in building low-level clouds that have the potential of producing precipitation.  Given the dry nature of the air, I doubt anything of much substance would result, but a sprinkle or light shower would be a possibility in the Southeastern quarter of Massachusetts ahead of and along this frontal boundary Thursday afternoon, while the remainder of New England would stay dry.

The stubborn cold front will finally clear New England by Thursday evening as a new area of cool Canadian high pressure settles south and east toward New England.  With a clockwise flow of air around centers of high pressure, this is likely to yield at least somewhat of a northeast component to the surface wind Friday afternoon, which will ensure that New England remains cool through the day.  Once again, this cool air will also be dry air, and that will ensure plenty of sunshine for Friday.  Nonetheless, while an area of high pressure - a fair weather cell - will build in at the surface, the atmospheric situation aloft is somewhat more complex.  Over the last couple of days in this discussion, together you and I have been discussing a trough (a dip) in the jet stream winds over New England.  Remember that the jet stream winds race high in the sky and are responsible for steering storm systems and acting as a thermostat, separating cold air to the north from warmer air to the south.  With these jet stream winds taking a dip over the Northeast, this puts New England on the cool side of the thermostat for the next several days, and it also steers a series of upper level disturbances over New England, as they merge in the base of this jet stream trough over the next several days, eventually developing a stronger storm east of New England by late this weekend.  In the meantime, however, each upper level energy center racing through aloft provides the impetus for showers, if only the effects of this energy could overpower the dry air that will be in place.  While this looks unlikely, it's at least worth noting that if any of these disturbances are stronger than currently forecasted, a sprinkle could develop either Friday or Saturday afternoon.  Barring stronger upper level disturbances, however, I continue to expect dry, mostly sunny and brisk conditions to persist into the weekend.

By Sunday, the conglomeration of multiple upper level disturbances dropping into the Northeastern United States trough will encourage the development of a storm center east of New England, over the Canadian Maritimes.  While the bulk of this storm is certain to stay east of New England, we always need to be cognizant of the potential for bands of moisture to be thrown back westward from storm circulations like this, resulting in bands of clouds and sometimes showers, as well.  At this point, my take on this is that we're likely to see some increase in cloud cover during the day Sunday - especially later in the day - but we're also likely to stay dry.

By Monday and Tuesday, we'll actually have our eye on two storm systems - one will be the slow moving storm to our east, and the other will be an equally slow-moving but moisture loaded system moving east across the Tennessee Valley.  The storm to our east, though slow to kick out, will gradually move east away from New England for the beginning of next week.  This will allow the next system to move to the East Coast, likely spreading rain back into New England Monday night or Tuesday.

Have a great Hump Day...

Technical Discussion:  None today...quiet enough that yesterday and Monday's thoughts should hold us for now!

Matt

BRIEF WARMTH FOR SOME TODAY...COOLER PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR REMAINDER OF WEEK

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Sunshine will continue breaking through clouds for most of Central and Southern New England Tuesday morning into early afternoon, combining with an active warming wind gusting to 30 mph to boost temperatures either side of 70 degrees!  An approaching cold front will help to keep clouds in place across Northern New England, however, holding temperatures down and ushering in rain showers by late morning to around midday.  For the remainder of New England, expect clouds to increase through the day after our warming sunshine, and windswept showers with a few thundershowers will ride from northwest to southeast from mid-afternoon in Central NH and Southern VT to late afternoon or early evening at the South Coast.  Behind this cold front, active breezes bring cool air in Tuesday night with temperatures dropping below freezing in most of Northern and Western New England, yielding a breezy and cooler day Wednesday under sunshine.  Another shot of cool air will sag southward into New England Wednesda afternoon with a few showers in Northern New England, and these scattered showers will spread south through the remainder of New England overnight Wednesday night.  By Thursday, this front may linger close enough to produce a late-day sprinkle in extreme Southern New England, but most communities will find a brisk blend of sun and clouds.  A developing northeast wind on Friday means a cool day, and that sets us up for a cool but pleasant and sunny weekend.  -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

The prevailing "trough," or dip, in the jet stream winds aloft that we looked at together in this discussion yesterday will pulse over the next 48 hours - that is, easing briefly only to be tugged deeper across the Northeastern United States with each passing energetic disturbance aloft.  Remember that the jet stream is the fast corridor of winds at high altitude that steer storm systems and act as a thermostat for the atmosphere, separating cold air to the north from warmer air to the south.  With this trough dragging deeper across the Northeast over the course of the next several days, and with New England under this trough, we will remain on the cool side of the thermostat after a brief warmup in some areas today.

Tuesday morning dawned with a split of clouds and sunshine, with cloud cover thickest across Northern and Western New England.  A west-southwest prevailing wind will aid in keeping dry conditions and at least some sun in most of Central and Southern New England into Tuesday afternoon, while also warming those areas, as winds slope down off of the hilly terrain of Western New England, and off of the Worcester Hills, producing an increasingly warm airmass the farther east one travels.  The teamwork of sunshine, filtered through clouds as the day progresses, with the warming wind, will boost temperatures to either side of 70 in some of Central and Southern New England by Tuesday afternoon.  At the same time, a cold front has continued its trek across New York and into New England today, and the ahead of the front we've already seen showers spreading over parts of Northwestern New England.  Expect the remainder of far Northern and Western New England to find these showers developing from late morning to early afternoon, then sweeping southeast across the remainder of New England between mid-afternoon and early evening from Southern NH/Central CT, to the Southeastern coastline, respectively.  Remember that you can follow the showers and storms with the radar imagery to the right of this discussion, which update each time you refresh this page, and can be clicked on to enlarge or loop.  With winds screaming at 90 mph about 15-20,000 feet up in the sky, if any thunderstorms grew tall enough into the sky, they would be capable of bringing locally damaging wind gusts to a few New England communities, though at this point it doesn't appear to me as though the storms will grow strong enough.  Instead, I'd expect to find any heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms bringing gusts of up to 45 mph, while area outside of these heavier showers are likely to see 30 mph gusts through the day, regardless.

Behind this cold front, cooler air is quite evident as it spills south and east across the Great Lakes.  Tuesday morning temperatures began in the twenties for towns around Lake Superior and northern Minnesota!  With an active wind from the northwest Tuesday evening and night, this colder airmass will have no trouble invading New England, and our own overnight low temperatures should be quite similar to those "upstream" in the weather pattern - that is, thirties for many, but below freezing and likely into the twenties for our valleys of Northern and Western New England.

While the incoming air is chilly and of Canadian origin, its moisture content is also relatively low, so sunshine should prevail through most of Wednesday.  That being said, an upper level energy center will race toward New England from the west later in the afternoon, and will have a weak low pressure center reflected at the surface.  Ahead of this wave of low pressure, winds will "back" somewhat, blowing from the west-southwest and fighting the effects of cool Canadian air, working with sunshine to nudge temperatures near 60 in Southern New England, while holding in the lower to middle 50s in elevated terrain.  This incoming wave of low pressure is also likely to bring increasing clouds to the North Country Wednesday afternoon, with a few showers at the Canadian border late in the day along another cold front - a reinforcing shot of cool Canadian air forced southward behind this disturbance, and as the front moves south across the remainder of New England Wednesday night, I'm maintaining the threat for scattered showers of rain, with some snow showers likely in the higher terrain of Northern New England.

It's possible that this reinforcing cold front will linger near enough to the south coast of New England on Thursday to bring a sprinkle or light rain shower to extreme Southern and Southeastern New England Thursday afternoon, though most of New England is expected to see a brisk blend of sun and clouds.  By Friday, plenty of dry air will be in place in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere.  Even so, surface winds will turn to blow from the northeast, which can often be a cool and moist direction, as we just saw this weekend and on Monday across most of New England.  I wouldn't worry too much about that type of a scenario for Friday at this point, however, as it appears the dry nature of the Canadian air will be overpowering for any shallow moisture that would try to sneak into New England.  Nonetheless, this cool flow will ensure that all of New England remains under a brisk blend of sun and clouds to end the workweek.

The warmer wind shift I was eyeing for Saturday may be delayed a bit, but sunshine will still prevail through the weekend as temperatures moderate somewhat, climbing well into the 50s on Saturday, and if we can swing the winds around from the southwest, we'd finally be able to get some widespread 60s back on Sunday.  Yet another strong storm will be developing to our west over the upcoming weekend...and it will be a slow-mover that will eventually bring the potential for another shot of heavy rain to some of New England...but it still looks like it would move slowly enough to hold raindrops off until the beginning of next workweek.

Have a great Tuesday!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Tuesday, April 25 at 11:20 AM

Fairly straight-forward forecast in the short term with cold front moving southeast.  Mid-level cloud cluster over Western parts of Southern NewEng drifted E this morning and slowed temp rise, but plenty of insolation should do its job to warm most of Central/Southern NewEng.  Cold front analyzed as of this writing across Central NY with associated frontal and post-frontal precip.  Held temps down in most of VT and also across North Country where clouds will linger, as with Central/Northern ME thanks to weak warm advection quickly replaced by cold advection even in the low-levels, and heights that are falling already.

The final verdict in my mind on convection this afternoon is to go with gusts to 45 mph within showers and thunderstorms.  The bottom line on this is that all of the factors we looked at yesterday are still present for a dynamically potent situation, but low-level and surface instability is really lacking, largely thanks to an absence of boundary layer moisture.  Still, dynamics should be able to generate some convective elements that will be able to transport at least some of the wind field aloft to ground level.  As it is, mixing to about 900 mb favors carrying wind gusts of 30 mph to the surface thru the day, but enhanced wind gusts seem likely in these convective elements.  It also doesn't help that some of the precip - in fact at this point a decent amount of it - is anafrontal, which doesn't often favor high-topped activity.

Overnight, I'd expect active northwest winds to continue dry and cold advection into NewEng leading to clearing skies and temps that will resemble upstream morning lows in the 20s and 30s across the Upper Great Lakes.  Probably a good idea to advise folks to bring in their tender decorative plants they may have out on the front steps given many areas of esp Central, Northern and Western NewEng will cool below freezing.

Still looking at a dry Wed, tho NAM is increasing the wind field ahead of next shortwave, and given the vorticity associated with it, I can believe this trend.  With an increased WSW wind progged, that means we have to bump temps up, as synoptic reasoning figures there will be some level of warm advection ahead of the incoming shortwave.  Still looks like rain showers associated with cold front Wed eve into night for Northern NewEng as front sags south, but with 850 temps falling to between -2 and -5 C, low-level moisture being carried south into the Northern Greens, Whites and mountains of ME, and some assistance from orography, it makes sense that we'll see snow showers in the higher elevations later Wed ngt.

This front appears to get stuck over Southern NewEng on Thu largely due to the fact that yet another, stronger shortwave is dropping into the longwave trof from James Bay, and induces enuf warm advection ahead of it not to turn the front around, but at least to stall it out and prevent deep intrusion of cold and dry air into Southern NewEng on Thu.  Once again this meant I bumped temps up a bit, but it also means we have to acknowledge the chance of sprinkles or rain showers later Thu in Southern NewEng near this surface boundary with the passage of the vort max.  Finally, behind this vort the heart of the cool and dry air migrates over NewEng on Fri.

Progression of surface ridge axis has trended slower in all guidance and this means we hold off on warming for the first half of the weekend, but it also means we stay the course on keeping NewEng dry this weekend.

Have a great day.

Matt

LINGERING MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES LEAVE A DAMP MONDAY...WARMING WINDS TUESDAY...DRIER, BRIGHTER AND BRISK WEATHER TO FOLLOW

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  A developing area of low pressure east of Cape Cod will move into the Gulf of Maine on Monday, keeping a cool and moist flow into most of New England with overcast skies.  With multiple energetic disturbances riding overhead, numerous showers and embedded downpours will crop up through the day across New England, as well, while areas of drizzle and fog gradually lift.  Overnight Monday night, expect renewed areas of fog, though gradually the atmosphere will dry out after midnight.  This should set the stage for emerging sunshine on Tuesday, and with mild air still in place, most of Southern New England will warm into the middle and even upper 60s while Northern New England lands either side of 60.  A cold front will move through New England Tuesday afternoon and evening, and will sweep through from northwest to southeast with showers and thunderstorms - a few of which may bring locally damaging wind gusts.  By Wednesday, new, crisp air will be in place with an active breeze.  This new air will hold temperatures in the middle 50s, even under sunshine, and though a few showers are possible overnight Wednesday night with a passing upper level disturbance, dry, sunny and brisk daytime conditions should continue through the end of the workweek, with a slight warming moderation in temperatures by Saturday.  -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

A general "trough" prevails in the atmosphere over the Northeastern United States - that is, a dip in the jet stream winds.  Remember that the jet stream is the fast corridor of winds at high altitude that steer storm systems and act as a thermostat for the atmosphere, separating cold air to the north from warmer air to the south.  With New England under this trough, we remain on the cool side of the thermostat, and though a brief warmup is in store for Tuesday, the balance of the week will feature a persistent trough - and therefore cool pattern - across the Northeastern United States.

In the meantime, what a weekend for parts of New England.  While eastern areas saw anywhere from no rain in Eastern and Northern Maine, to just over an inch in some of Boston's Metro West communities, over half a foot of rain fell in parts of Western and Central Connecticut, resulting in flooding of streets, streams and rivers, and resulting in the closing of bridges.  You can always check for active warnings and advisories by using the link to the left of this discussion.  The weather story continues to unfold today, though much quieter, with clouds, drizzle and areas of fog beginning the workweek as a moist flow continues around an area of low pressure winding north from a position east of Cape Cod, into the Gulf of Maine.  At the same time this surface low pressure center strengthens while pulling north, multiple energetic upper level disturbances will be moving over New England, ready to converge into a stronger upper level storm that will move east into the Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday.  In the meantime, these upper level energy centers will couple with lots of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere to produce multiple showers, downpours and even a few thunderstorms across New England on Monday.  The best way to convey the forecast is through the wording "periods of rain and downpours" because, as you'll be able to see for yourself through radar imagery to the right of this discussion, showers will come in clusters, and will crop up in many locales, falling heaviest Monday afternoon and evening.  With drizzle and fog slowly lifting, but clouds staying put through the day, most communities will have a difficult time exceeding 50 degrees for maximum temperatures Monday afternoon, though the southern third of New England will likely nudge into the lower and middle 50s, while the Western slopes of the Green Mountains will benefit from a southeast wind sloping down off of the mountains, and the result will be enough drying for a few breaks of sun from time to time and temperatures rising into the middle 50s.

With a northerly and northeast flow present through the remainder of New England, there should be enough lingering moisture Monday night for areas of fog and coastal drizzle to redevelop, though winds shifting out of the west will promote drying, especially after midnight.  By Tuesday morning, a west-southwest wind will prevail, and this is not only an effective way to dry Central and Southern New England, but also to warm it, as winds slope down off of the hilly terrain of Western New England, and off of the Worcester Hills, producing an increasingly warm airmass the farther east one travels.  The result should be emerging Tuesday morning sunshine, which will team up with this warming wind to boost temperatures into the middle and perhaps even upper 60s in Central and Southern New England by Tuesday afternoon.  At the same time, a cold front will be charging east out of the Great Lakes and across New York State, heading for New England.  This front will bring showers into Northwestern New England early to middle afternoon on Tuesday, sweeping southeast across the remainder of New England between mid-afternoon west and early to middle evening east, with showers and thunderstorms.  With winds screaming at over 90 mph about 20,000 feet up in the sky, any thunderstorms that develop may bring locally damaging winds to a few New England communities, especially through interior Southern New England.

This cold front will mark the leading edge to a new batch of air that will sweep into New England with an active breeze and much cooler temperatures.  The moisture content of this new air is relatively low, however, so sunshine should prevail on Wednesday even though the cool nature of the Canadian airmass will hold high temperatures only in the middle 50s...cooler in hilly terrain.  Though our air will be dry, and this will aid in keeping the sun out through the end of the week, a strong upper level disturbance sliding through New England Wednesday night is likely to bring a few overnight showers before quickly departing to our east and allowing our dry weather to resume.

Sunshine and brisk conditions will prevail on both Thursday and Friday as the trough in the jet stream winds remains carved over New England, though by Saturday I expect winds to begin a shift from a more southwest direction - a warmer wind direction - and this shift combined with the help of sunshine would boost temperatures into the 60s for a pleasant start to the weekend, at least by the way I'm seeing things right now.  Though yet another strong storm will be developing to our west over the upcoming weekend...and it will be a slow-mover that will eventually bring the potential for another shot of heavy rain to some of New England...it looks right now like it would move slowly enough to give us another pleasant spring day on Sunday, holding raindrops off until the beginning of next workweek.

Enjoy your Monday!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Monday, April 24 at 10:40 AM

Fog and drizzle slow to burn off this morning as you'd expect given moist flow that continues at the surface with northeast winds strengthening on Western periphery of strengthening low east of New England.  Given diurnal effects even thru stratus deck I'd expect fog and drizzle to continue lifting tho with multiple vort maxes showers and downpours will continue to crop up across NewEng today.  That being said, most organized areas of precip will occur where synoptic warm advection occurs, which are along the Maine coast and in Southeastern MA.  Vort axis pivoting thru CT and Western MA will produce surface trof that will also help to focus showers and with cold pool aloft shifting east-southeast with developing upper low and weak diurnal effects, enuf convective instability is likely for embedded thunder Mon afternoon, as was seen from Western NJ to Western CT Monday mid-morning.

Overnight Wed Ngt as the progressive and deepening upper low shifts east, it catches up to synoptic warm advection and should produce a transient band of moderate to heavy rainfall in Eastern and briefly in Northern ME.  Elsewhere, the deepening surface reflection off the Maine coast will help to pull winds to a westerly direction and this downsloping and drier flow will aid in breaking up what fog and drizzle will have redeveloped due to nocturnal cooling, and will break these areas of surface moisture up after midnight.

The drying flow continues into Tue and this will aid in breaking out the sunshine for many areas as this boundary layer drying comes concurrently with 20-40% RH in the midlevels.  Insolation will couple with milder air advected ahead of approaching shortwave and attendant surface cold front to boost temperatures well into the 60s most areas.  With dewpoints only running in the 40s and perhaps lower 50s, surface based CAPE will be limited.  Additionally, cold pool with first upper low will have shifted east and midlevel temps will just be starting to cool again Tue afternoon with approaching shortwaves and associated height falls, so instability will be somewhat limited and both surface and 4-layer LIs are fcstd to remain strongly positive.  Still, surface and low level directional convergence is tremendous with extremely well pronounced wind shift and of concern is the wind field aloft - increasing to nearly 90 knots at 500 mb Tuesday afternoon with strong upper level diffluence moving overhead associated with jet streak.  All of these factors combined convince me to keep isolated thunder in the forecast, and for now will mention potential for isolated damaging wind gust - most likely for interior Southern NewEng away from any ocean influences.  Again, it's the overwhelming combo of dynamics, strong wind flow, and large dewpoint depression values that encourages this forecast for now.  If instability still appears null tomorrow and any of the above mentioned factors weaken, will certainly be open to reconsidering.

The approaching front is producing anafrontal precip and this trend will continue through Ontario with snow showers.  Most anafrontal characteristics should be lost as the front moves thru NewEng, however, given that the jet streak rotates east of NewEng around the base of the longwave trof.  The air that spills in for Wed will be much cooler, of course, as has been well progged for quite some time.  But the air will also be dry enough to likely bring a super-dry adiabatic lapse rate and active breezes will promote mixing.  These winds will also be downsloping, which will further aid in warming, so mid to upper 50s south seems reasonable with significantly cooler temps in elevated terrain where highs are unlikely to climb much above 50.

Shortwave Wed Ngt looks strong enuf for showers and while the flow is fast and timing may change if guidance is not handling the speed correctly, right now looks like an overnight shower passage with reinforcing cool shot for Thu - which will be the coolest of the bunch with 850 mb temps some 6-8 C below normal and once again downsloping and super-dry adiabatic lapse rate the two mitigating factors.  Surface ridge axis may be slow to shift E on Fri, so be cautious on trying to warm temps up to quickly, but by Sat there appears to be good agreement on ridge axis moving E and SW flow moderating the airmass for a terrific spring day.  Next upper low will cutoff from the jet stream winds once again - much like this past weekend's storm - as the jet lifts north into Canada.  This brings the potential for another heavy rain event early next week...both Mon and Tue...which goes with what we looked at together last week in these discussions regarding a broadly diffluent flow favoring heavy precip events but also able to transport both warmth and moisture northward.  Regardless, at this point I would bank on the slower solution - you and I did this last week and it worked out well, and given a similar setup I would favor doing the same thing again this time around, which should deliver a nice weekend.

Have a great start to your week, and thanks as always for clicking over!

Matt

NEW AIR TAKES HOLD OF NEW ENGLAND...SATURDAY REMAINS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Clouds that have developed across parts of interior New England will melt away quickly Friday morning, allowing plenty of sunshine for all of New England.  While that sunshine will resemble yesterday's weather, the feel outside will be quite different for one and all, as new air has moved into New England on northeast and east winds, blowing in cool and crisp air from Canada and off of the cold ocean waters.  The result will be widespread high temperatures some 15-20 degrees cooler than Thursday was, especiallly for interior New England!  The air is as dry as it is cool, and fire danger remains high across New England - especially NH and ME.  Expect a chilly night under mostly clear skies Friday night with deeper valleys seeing some fog, and cool, dry conditions will prevail on Saturday for most of New England as well.  A storm approaching from the southwest will bring showers to Southwestern CT later Saturday afternoon while the rest of New England waits until after dark for showers to move in.  Expect rain, heavy at times, for a good part of Sunday with cool conditions, then gradually warming temperatures but lingering showers amidst Southern New England breaks of sunshine on Monday.  By Tuesday, the weather pattern becomes a bit faster-moving, and this will bring another chance of showers with the next weather system.  -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

With the atmospheric pattern finally beginning to move again, New England weather regains its changeable nature as we head into the weekend.  Of course, with the strong jet stream winds aloft lifting into Canada, these winds that steer our storm systems won't be available to keep storms moving quickly, so instead we'll end up turning our attention to a slow-moving energy center moving east out of the Great Lakes this weekend, interacting with significant Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture for an intense rainstorm in the Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, and eventually into the Northeast.

In the meantime, new air has moved into New England and we'll all feel it on Friday, and through the weekend.  This new air is Canadian in origin, which means it's cool and dry.  The clockwise flow of air around the center of high pressure - the center of this dome of Canadian air - will mean a northeast and east wind will continue to blow through New England, and in addition to the cool and dry air moving in, these winds will be blowing across cold ocean waters that are only just barely above 40 degrees!  The result will be a very brisk day along all east and northeast facing coastlines, where we'll struggle to get out of the upper 40s, while interior locales, farther away from the ocean influence, will rebound into the 50s, while Western New England from Hartford, CT, to the Champlain Valley of Vermont, should rise into the 60s.  Still, this is some 15-20 degrees cooler for most communities than yesterday, so it's important that we not be fooled into expecting another day of summertime warmth by the sunny appearance!  One weather factor that does remain constant, unfortunately, is very dry air, especially away from ocean influences which especially includes most of New Hampshire and interior Maine.  Through most of New England, elevated fire danger continues Friday and into Saturday, as well.  After multiple brush fires over the past several days, let's all remember that one of the most common causes of Northeastern US brush and wild fires are poorly extinguished smoking materials, followed by poorly managed burning, which fire officials say was responsible for a fire that burned up to 100 automobiles at a junkyard in Middleborough, MA, on Thursday.

As mentioned above, weekend attention will turn to a storm that made headlines at the beginning of the week as it brought blizzard conditions to the Northern Plains.  Though it's packed full of energy, this storm has been cut off from the fast jet stream winds aloft that normally steer storms and keep them moving, as the jet stream winds aloft have retreated quickly into Canada, leaving this storm behind to drift only slowly east, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and arriving into New England Saturday evening/night into Sunday.

This sluggish storm will be dragging increasingly warm and humid air northward ahead of it in the counter-clockwise flow of air around the center of low pressure.  After a cool start of filtered sunshine through high altitude clouds Saturday morning, the clash of incoming warmth and moisture with the cool and dry air already in place over New England will mean increasing clouds through the day Saturday with heavy rains from Pennsylvania to New Jersey, and only a slow progression of this rain shield into New England as it battles our cool and dry Canadian dome.  A few showers are likely to arrive in Southwestern CT and extreme Western MA Saturday afternoon, though for most of New England the rains will hold off until after sunset Saturday night, making Saturday by far the pick of the weekend days.

A big reason we can't bank on a decent day Sunday is because we have to remember that a storm slow to move in also is likely to be a storm slow to move out, and with so much energy heading directly for New England, and the clash of two airmasses occurring directly overhead, there are a few likely results.  The first likely result is for bands of rain to fall heavily at times as long as the storm is nearby - which would stretch from Saturday night through Monday!  This doesn't mean it's going to rain the entire time...but it does mean various parts of New England will have to deal with rain showers and downpours coming and going through that period.  The heaviest rain is likely to move through Connecticut the latter half of Saturday night into Sunday Morning, and through the remainder of New England during the day Sunday into Sunday night.  Though rainfall amounts are likely to be much heavier in Southern New England than in Northern New England - ranging from one to two inches south (with some higher amounts, especially in CT) to an inch in Central New England, to about a quarter inch along the Canadian border, with rain barely reaching Northern Maine by Sunday night.  The other likely result of a storm moving along such a dramatic clash of airmasses is for a large difference in temperatures between the north side of the storm and the south side.  If this area of low pressure moves directly across New England, parts of extreme Southern New England would be able to warm into the 60s on Sunday with breaks of sun between the downpours.  It still appears, however, that the storm center will pass just south of New England, keeping just about everyone on the cool side of the storm with temperatures in the 40s, and enough mild air squeaking onto the South Coast to boost temperatures into the 50s there.  By Monday, another wave of low pressure will move across New England...though this time perhaps the track would be over Southern New England, which would keep cool periods of rain in the north, but allow those aforementioned breaks of sun and somewhat milder temperatures to move into Southern New England amidst some showers.

Though I can't rule out another round of showers with a quick moving storm center as our atmospheric pattern finally starts to move a bit quicker on Tuesday, I think the trend for the midweek should be a for a dry and somewhat cool shot of air that will gradually modify (warm) near or above normal by the week's end.  In the longer term, the supply of cool air will run out and it looks like a more prolonged warming trend will be ready to move into New England for the first week of May.

Have a fantastic weekend!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Friday, April 21 at 12:15 PM

Not many changes for the upcoming weekend scenario so for the most part will refer you to yesterday's technical discussion in the next few days but I do have a few additional thoughts before we dive into the longer range.  First, the timing looks to be close to yesterday's thoughts, though it's looking more and more like a wet afternoon for all of the SW half of CT and now also for Western MA and Southern VT as strong warm and moist advection takes hold from 18Z onward with a well defined speed and directional convergence zone ahead of the corridor of approaching 850 llvl jet cranking at 50-60 kts over SE NY later Sat.  This llvl jet axis will shift east, enhanced by the squeeze between lingering ridging over the Canadian Maritimes and the Western Atlantic, and the incoming trof from the Great Lakes.  Surface low still progged to pass S of NewEng and if one looks only at the synoptic setup with a 1022 high over Eastern Canada and a surface wave cranking south of NewEng, this is favorable for a strong east if not even a northeast surface wind later Sat Night and surface Theta-e progs confirm some cool advection across the Gulf of ME into Southern NewEng.  This sets up a differential advection favorable for heavy precip event, and with tropical airmass feeding into the equation, 12Z NAM responds accordingly by cranking out several inches of precip, esp in Western NewEng.  Canadian Ensembles are on-board with this and I expect the 12Z GFS to be onboard with at least what will end up being a 2"+ rainfall western half of NewEng - centered on CT/Wrn MA - and a 1"-2" rainfall farther E, with amounts dimishing northeast with nothing in Northern ME, closest to surface anticyclone.  Heaviest pd of rain is Sat Ngt extreme Western areas but Sun for the remainder of NewEng.  Lo and behold, Monday coastal system now showing up on the NAM which is close to Canadian guidance.  Regular readers know this was the original thinking on the system but have been compromising temps given insistence of GFS and ECMWF on getting northern edge of warm sector into Srn NewEng.  Still early to bite too hard but a well-established easterly flow will not promote any warming, nor will the heavy banded precip that would result on the north side of the upper low and its surface reflection.  From the beginning of the week the Ensemble members were indicating this low has the potential to become a powerful creature and we will need to continue watching it, especially given that its source region is over the Mid-Atl, where it will be tapped into Gulf of Mex moisture.  Second shot of heavy QPF still looks like a good bet with this wave, though track will determine where it is.  Not impossible for thunder southeastern NewEng later Mon and heavy rain north if this low tracks directly over Ern MA.  Bottom line is we're looking at inches of rain to fall this weekend through Monday across most of NewEng.  Ground is dry and needs this rainfall, but may fall heavily enough for flash flooding latter half of Sat Ngt in Western MA and Western CT and this potential will need to be monitored this weekend.

In the longer range, there are sure signs of spring for the beginning of May, and also signs that after another wave on a front passes thru with showers on Tue, a dry flow will take hold, though perhaps not exceptionally warm.  Canada is one conflicted country, speaking strictly of weather this week.  Our cool air is spilling out of Eastern Canada while currently strong positive height anomalies over and west of Hudson Bay are producing 850 temp anomalies of +12 to +16C!!  This is tremendous warmth but at this point it remains locked our west as troffing continues.  Even after Tuesday's wave, it appears a strong surface anticyclone settles south out of Central Canada, bringing a shot of Canadian chill to the tune of 4 C below normal at 850 mb, tho I don't think we'll verify that cold as downsloping flow and boundary layer airmass modification are likely to battle back.  The end result may be a stretch of a few days that are pleasant days of near normal temperatures with enough dry air to lock in quiet weather thru the end of next week.

It also appears as though this surge of cool air is the last gasp of Canadian chill for now, and what this means is that we're left with a weak trough but little low level cold to pour into it.  This transition occurs as energy from a storm plowing into the west coast at the middle of next week traverses the lower 48 and passes off the East Coast south of NewEng by next weekend, bringing with it intense severe weather outbreaks from the Lower MS River Valley to the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic US next Saturday and Sunday while providing perhaps a bit of moisture input aloft for northern stream shortwaves that will be sliding thru NewEng - the best defined perhaps on Sat with Northern NewEng showers and possible thunder.  Thereafter, thickness diffluence spreads from the MS Valley to the northeast and Mid-Atlantic which favors a week with multiple threats for showers and thunderstorms, and with the diffluent flow aloft and slow moving energy over the SE US, along with a slowly westward retrograding trough axis to a position west of NewEng, we will have to be on-guard for heavy rain events, though outside of these events temps should run above normal with little cold air available in Canada.

Have a great weekend and stay dry!

Matt

SPECIAL FEATURE: LYRID METEOR SHOWER TO LIGHT THE SKY FRIDAY NIGHT

The following is a press release from Sky and Telescope regarding the upcoming meteor shower display.  While some high altitude clouds are expected for parts of Southern New England, mostly clear skies should allow us to enjoy the Lyrid meteor shower.  Read on...usual daily Weather Discussions are in the post below this one.

-Matt

April 18, 2006 -- Cambridge, MA -- The annual Lyrid meteor shower should reach its peak activity late Friday night and early Saturday morning, April 21-22, 2006. The Moon, a thick waning crescent, doesn't rise till about an hour before morning twilight begins, so it will hardly interfere with the shower at all this year. Still, the Lyrids are generally weak. Even at their maximum only 10 to 20 "shooting stars" per hour may appear.

But there have been some remarkable exceptions. In 1982 the rate unexpectedly reached 90 for a single hour, and 180 to 300 for a few minutes. A brief outburst of 100 meteors per hour was also seen in 1922.

And on April 20, 1803, the residents of Richmond, Virginia, upon being rousted out of bed by a fire bell, were startled to see great numbers of meteors in all parts of the sky.

The time to watch will be late Friday night, April 21st, until the first light of dawn on Saturday morning the 22nd. You'll need no equipment but your eyes. Find a spot with an open view of the sky and no bright lights nearby. Bring a reclining lawn chair, bundle up warmly, and bring a sleeping bag; clear nights can get very cold, even in springtime.

"Arrange the chair so that any bright lights are behind you out of sight, lie back, and watch the stars," says SKY & TELESCOPE senior editor Alan MacRobert. "Be patient."

If you trace each meteor's direction of flight backward far enough across the sky, you'll find that the imaginary line you're drawing crosses a spot between the bright summer star Vega and the keystone pattern of the constellation Hercules. This spot is the shower's radiant, the perspective point from which all the Lyrids would appear to come if you could see them approaching from the far distance. The radiant is low in the east-northeast by 11 p.m., higher up in the east by 2 a.m., and overhead by the first light of dawn. But you don't have to look there. Just watch whatever part of your sky offers the darkest view.

Generally, there will be more meteors than usual visible for a few nights on either side of the peak of a meteor shower.

The Lyrid meteoroids (particles) are tiny, sand-grain- to pea-size bits of icy debris shed from Comet Thatcher, discovered in 1861. Over the centuries these bits have spread all along the comet's orbit to form a sparse, moving "river of rubble" hundreds of millions of miles long. Earth's own annual orbit around the Sun carries us through this stream of particles every mid-April.

The particles are traveling 30 miles per second with respect to Earth at the place in space where we encounter them. So when one of them strikes Earth's upper atmosphere (about 50 to 80 miles up), air friction vaporizes it in a quick, white-hot streak.

More information on meteor showers and how to watch them is available online at SkyandTelescope.com in Observing > Celestial Objects > Meteors.

SPECIAL FEATURE: LYRID METEOR SHOWER TO LIGHT THE SKY FRIDAY NIGHT

The following is a press release from Sky and Telescope regarding the upcoming meteor shower display.  While some high altitude clouds are expected for parts of Southern New England, mostly clear skies should allow us to enjoy the Lyrid meteor shower.  Read on...usual daily Weather Discussions are in the post below this one.

-Matt

April 18, 2006 -- Cambridge, MA -- The annual Lyrid meteor shower should reach its peak activity late Friday night and early Saturday morning, April 21-22, 2006. The Moon, a thick waning crescent, doesn't rise till about an hour before morning twilight begins, so it will hardly interfere with the shower at all this year. Still, the Lyrids are generally weak. Even at their maximum only 10 to 20 "shooting stars" per hour may appear.

But there have been some remarkable exceptions. In 1982 the rate unexpectedly reached 90 for a single hour, and 180 to 300 for a few minutes. A brief outburst of 100 meteors per hour was also seen in 1922.

And on April 20, 1803, the residents of Richmond, Virginia, upon being rousted out of bed by a fire bell, were startled to see great numbers of meteors in all parts of the sky.

The time to watch will be late Friday night, April 21st, until the first light of dawn on Saturday morning the 22nd. You'll need no equipment but your eyes. Find a spot with an open view of the sky and no bright lights nearby. Bring a reclining lawn chair, bundle up warmly, and bring a sleeping bag; clear nights can get very cold, even in springtime.

"Arrange the chair so that any bright lights are behind you out of sight, lie back, and watch the stars," says SKY & TELESCOPE senior editor Alan MacRobert. "Be patient."

If you trace each meteor's direction of flight backward far enough across the sky, you'll find that the imaginary line you're drawing crosses a spot between the bright summer star Vega and the keystone pattern of the constellation Hercules. This spot is the shower's radiant, the perspective point from which all the Lyrids would appear to come if you could see them approaching from the far distance. The radiant is low in the east-northeast by 11 p.m., higher up in the east by 2 a.m., and overhead by the first light of dawn. But you don't have to look there. Just watch whatever part of your sky offers the darkest view.

Generally, there will be more meteors than usual visible for a few nights on either side of the peak of a meteor shower.

The Lyrid meteoroids (particles) are tiny, sand-grain- to pea-size bits of icy debris shed from Comet Thatcher, discovered in 1861. Over the centuries these bits have spread all along the comet's orbit to form a sparse, moving "river of rubble" hundreds of millions of miles long. Earth's own annual orbit around the Sun carries us through this stream of particles every mid-April.

The particles are traveling 30 miles per second with respect to Earth at the place in space where we encounter them. So when one of them strikes Earth's upper atmosphere (about 50 to 80 miles up), air friction vaporizes it in a quick, white-hot streak.

More information on meteor showers and how to watch them is available online at SkyandTelescope.com in Observing > Celestial Objects > Meteors.

SOME WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COMMUNITIES TO NEAR 80 WHILE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT SNEAKS NEW AIR IN FROM CANADA

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Sunshine prevails across New England for our Thursday, with winds dying down compared to recent days and temperatures warming back into the 70s for many areas.  Sea breezes will be better defined than on Wednesday, and this will keep coastal communities cooler.  By later in the afternoon, a cold front dropping south through Northern Maine will snake southwest along the Maine coastline, swinging winds around to the northeast and east, and bringing cooler air in to New England from northeast to southwest.  By evening, this cooler air will reach the Eastern coastline of Southern New England, and overnight Thursday night this cooler airmass, complete with an area of increased clouds, will spread across all of New England.  The cloudy and cool start to Friday will yield sunshine from mid-morning onward, but the new cool airmass will hold temperatures some 20 degrees cooler than Thursday for interior New England!  This cool but relatively dry air will lock in a dry and cool Saturday with early sun fading behind increasing clouds.  Rains will arrive in Southwestern New England Saturday evening and will spread northeast Saturday night.  This sets most of New England up for a wet and raw Sunday with an active east wind around a storm center moving just south of our area.  Monday is likely to feature more clouds than sun overall, though any sun we see would help temperatures to rebound a bit, and showers are likely to crop up through most of New England. -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

after days of strong wind and variable cloud cover, the stubborn and large storm that's been sitting east of Nova Scotia is weakening and moving slowly east, away from New England.  Sunshine will be abundant as New England is bathed in dry air, with the only exceptions found in Eastern Maine where a few clouds will continue to bubble up through Thursday afternoon with the combination of lingering moisture behind the Scotian storm, and ahead of a cold front settling southwest through Maine Thursday afternoon.  Sunshine, warm temperatures and dry air with low relative humidity will keep the threat for fire danger high, and we've seen several brush fires over the past few days across most of New England.  These brush fires haven't required any evacuations yet, though they've come within a quarter mile of houses and have required several towns pooling fire fighting resources to battle the blazes.  What we can do as citizens is remember that one of the most common causes of Northeastern US brush and wild fires are poorly extinguished smoking materials, followed by poorly managed burning.

While the large majority of New England will climb to between 10 and 20 degrees above normal high temperatures Thursday afternoon, the weather is primed for change for two reasons - one is a fair weather center (high pressure) and the other a storm (low pressure).  The storm in question has been moving begrudgingly east across Minnesota, and is the same storm that brough blizzard conditions earlier this week to the Northern Plains.  Though it's packed full of energy, this storm has been cut off from the fast jet stream winds aloft that normally steer storms and keep them moving, as the jet stream winds aloft have retreated quickly into Canada, leaving this storm behind to drift only slowly east.  That becomes important here in New England because as our current storm east of Nova Scotia finally departs, this next disturbance will slowly but surely march eastward, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and arriving into New England Saturday evening/night into Sunday.

Long before that pokey storm arrives, however, we'll already have seen marked weather changes moving into New England later Thursday afternoon through Thursday Night from a completely different - and indeed, opposite - weather system.  A large area of high pressure, or fair weather, continues to strengthen and build southeast through Canada from Hudson Bay southeast into Quebec.  The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure center will pull a wind from the northeast toward New England, pumping cooler air in our direction out of Canada as a result.  We'll watch the wind shift associated with the leading edge of this cooler airmass moving southwest across New England late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.  The leading edge to a cooler airmass with a wind shift is the definition of a cold front, and since this front is coming in from the east, rather than the west, it's referred to as a "backdoor cold front" in the world of meteorology.  Call it what you will, but the result will be cooling temperatures at the east-facing shorelines and through Maine as soon as later Thursday afternoon, and through the remainder of New England Thursday night.

This new airmass will penetrate far inland, all the way through New England, and will set us up for a cool Friday.  With an easterly component meaning winds are blowing across cold ocean waters, this will further keep temperatures from rising and will also add ocean moisture to the lower levels of the atmosphere, allowing plenty of clouds to pop up Thursday night and Friday morning, though rainfall is unlikely given the dry nature of the Canadian air moving in, and in fact, increasing sunshine is likely Friday afternoon.  It's at this point that we'll begin paying closer attention to the sluggish storm moving east toward New England, which will be dragging increasingly warm and humid air northward ahead of it in the counter-clockwise flow of air.  After a sunny and cool start Saturday, the clash of incoming warmth and moisture with the cool and dry air already in place over New England will mean increasing clouds through the day Saturday with heavy rains from Pennsylvania to New Jersey, and only a slow progression of this rain shield into New England as it battles our cool and dry Canadian dome.  A few showers are likely to arrive in Southwestern CT Saturday late afternoon into Saturday evening, though for most of New England the rains will hold off until overnight Saturday night, making Saturday by far the pick of the weekend days.

A big reason we can't bank on a decent day Sunday is because we have to remember that a storm slow to move in also is likely to be a storm slow to move out, and with so much energy heading directly for New England, and the clash of two airmasses occurring directly overhead, there are a few likely results.  The first likely result is for bands of rain to fall heavily at times as long as the storm is nearby - which would stretch from Saturday night through Monday!  This doesn't mean it's going to rain the entire time...but it does mean various parts of New England will have to deal with rain showers and downpours coming and going through that period.  The heaviest rain is likely to move through Connecticut the latter half of Saturday night into Sunday Morning, and through the remainder of New England during the day Sunday.  Though rainfall amounts are likely to be much heavier in Southern New England than in Northern New England - ranging from either side of an inch south (with some higher amounts, especially in CT) to .25"-.50" north.  The other likely result of a storm moving along such a dramatic clash of airmasses is for a large difference in temperatures between the north side of the storm and the south side.  If this area of low pressure moves directly across New England, parts of extreme Southern New England would be able to warm into the 60s on Sunday with breaks of sun between the downpours.  Latest guidance, however, suggests the storm center will pass just south of New England, keeping just about everyone on the cool side of the storm with temperatures in the 40s, and enough mild air squeaking onto the South Coast to boost temperatures into the 50s there.  By Monday, another wave of low pressure will move across New England...though this time perhaps the track would be over Southern New England, which would keep cool periods of rain in the north, but allow those aforementioned breaks of sun and somewhat milder temperatures to move into Southern New England amidst some showers.

Though I can't rule out a lingering shower on Tuesday, I think the trend for the midweek should be a for a dry and somewhat cool shot of air that will gradually modify (warm) near or above normal by the week's end.  In the longer term, the supply of cool air will run out and it looks like a more prolonged warming trend will be ready to move into New England for the first week of May.

Have a wonderful Thursday.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Thursday, April 20 at 1:08 PM

Deep mixing to nearly 800 mb today with very dry air and a super-dry-adiabatic lapse rate will bring temps well above MOS and operational guidance for all interior locales.  Coastal locales will depend heavily upon sea breeze component, which strengthens during the day as backdoor cool front dropping thru Maine loses its identity for a time as it jumps west upon reaching the cold ocean waters.  The result will be an apparent increase in the sea breeze, though in reality it's a merger of the sea breeze and cold front, and this boundary - after stalling just inland from the coastline early in the afternoon - will penetrate farther inland toward evening and complete the trek into New York State overnight without diurnal effects to impede its progress.  The result of this backdoor front/enhanced sea breeze will be morning or midday highs in much of Maine and along Eastern coastal Southern New England.  Meanwhile, super dry adiabatic lapse rate inland with no ocean component favors widespread 70s with Pioneer and Lower Connecticut River Valleys into the upper 70s and just a couple of degrees shy of the 80 mark.

Even with all of this warmth, however, I still have little doubt over the substance associated with the incoming cool airmass.  Morning temperatures were in the 20s and 30s in Quebec and even with full sun have been slow to rise.  Add to that a deep and well-established boundary layer flow off of the cool ocean waters...and an input of ocean moisture to an airmass with dewpoints in the middle 20s (slight moisture addition aids in evaporative cooling) and pressure rises already evident of 2-3 mb/3 hrs. in Northern Maine...not to mention 925 mb temps that would only mix to about 56-58 F in Friday's airmass, and I think widespread middle 50s with temps holding perhaps only in the upper 40s to around 50 at the coast will be close to reality.  Low level moisture will increase with the shallow cold advection overnight Thu Ngt - earlier in Central and Eastern ME - and produce clouds that will stick around for the start of Fri.  Mixing and overall dry ambient airmass with the Canadian high pressure cell will allow for these clouds to erode during Friday.

Attention thereafter turns to the approaching upper level buzzsaw across the Northern Plains.  While this storm hasn't been making nearly as many headlines as it did a few days ago, it still represents tons of energy and a cold pool aloft that will find new life as the blossoming Pacific and soon Gulf Moisture evident in the Arklatex thunderstorms become entrained into the system.  As mentioned in the technical discussion earlier this week, with the jet stream winds retreating quickly into Canada this storm will take its sweet time moving east, and that means we'll have to deal with it for an extended time.  While the GFS brings rain in a bit quicker than the other guidance, I favor the slower solution given the prolonged breakdown of the recent omega block.  This means I favor bringing rain into Southwestern NewEng later Sat afternoon or even Sat eve after a day that begins with sun then brings increasing clouds as moisture streams overhead in what should be a fairly susbstantial cirrus deck given airmass clash.  At the surface, cool and low dewpoint air combined with onshore flow will mean that even what sun we see early won't be able to boost temps significantly, and I would think most areas should hang in the 50s for max temps again with perhaps a few 60s coming back in places like Pioneer Valley.  Given dry nature of airmass and high pressure not far to our northeast, I favor only slowly progressing rain shield northeast across NewEng Sat Ngt with heaviest period of rain coming as surface low pressure passes from W to E south of NewEng on Sun.  That subtle change in forecasted track of course has a significant effect on temps for Sun, with the northern side of the circulation destined to hold in the upper 40s on average thanks to very low dewpoints prior to storm's arrival, and an onshore flow.  While I think it's important to acknowledge the potential for a significant rain event of several inches from OH thru PA and into the Mid-Atlantic - focused on NJ - the question is whether we will see similar precip amounts in NewEng.  Not quite a cut and dry forecast (pun intended!) because we're dealing with a summertime tropical airmass to our southwest progressing northeast and the surface wave of low pressure will develop along the surface warm front...which will lag behind the warm air aloft.  The end result is for strengthening southeast inflow from the Atlantic into NewEng on Sunday, which should guarantee precip for most areas, excepting perhaps eastern ME closest to the weakening anticyclone and still under what is a sharp and well-defined low level ridge.  With the nature of this precip being driven by warm advection into a ridge, we should final rather narrow corridor of heavy precip as indicated by the NAM, but with moist onshore flow at the surface I would expect the overall precip area to readily expand eastward on Sunday.

By Mon, wave of low pressure shud cross Srn NewEng which will allow nose of warm sector to penetrate north a bit and with breaks of sun, 60s wouldn't be impossible.  That said, there are lingering indications that the storm track goes south of NewEng (ex: GGEM) and this would mean another cool rain event, so while it appears as tho this is the fate more of Northern NewEng than Southern, this potential needs to be acknowledged, especially given that this has been the trend of the past few days to keep the storm center south.

Tomorrow, we'll take a closer look at the upcoming long range pattern.

Matt

WARMTH BATTLES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...COOL AIR TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  The storm east of New England is gradually releasing its grip on the area, and this means that morning clouds and sprinkles in Eastern New England should give way to increasing sunshine and warming temperatures for one and all from west to east Wednesday afternoon.  Winds will still be quite busy, however, with gusts from the north of up to 40 mph in Eastern New England.  The sunny end to our Wednesday will be followed by a partly cloudy Wednesday night with a touch of fog in deeper valleys of especially Northern and Western New England.  Thursday will be a sunny one for just about all spots, though clouds will build through Central and Eastern Maine late in the day and carry farther west by evening as a wind shift brings northeast and east winds into New England.  By late Thursday afternoon, this developing onshore flow will bring temperatures in the 60s and 70s falling at the east-facing coastlines but warmth will hold on inland.  Thursday night the cool northeast flow will penetrate inland, and this will set New England up for a dry but cool Friday with variable cloud cover, followed by a cool Saturday that also will be mostly dry until rain advances across New England from southwest to northeast Saturday late afternoon to evening.  With a slow-moving storm over the Northeast, periodic showers and occasional downpours will remain in the forecast for both Sunday and Monday.  Have a great Wednesday! -Matt

Weather Summary coming later this morning, as usual.

General Weather Summary: 

Slowly but surely, the intense storm east of Nova Scotia will relax its grip on New England, though the effects continue to make themselves evident Wednesday morning.  Pulses of moisture and energy pinwheeling around the western periphery of that storm have been thrown back over Eastern New England from time to time, bringing plenty of morning clouds and even a few sprinkles and showers, with the heaviest showers found in Eastern Maine.  Through the day, these clouds and some associated sprinkles will move over Cape Cod, where a north wind off the cold ocean waters will hold temperatures in the lower 50s, while the rest of Eastern New England will find these clouds blotting out the sun from time to time through early afternoon, then gradual improvement with temperatures responding to the sunshine.  Another effect still evident of the powerful storm well to our east will be a strong north wind gusting up to 40 mph in Eastern New England at times through Wednesday afternoon.  This will keep the threat for fire danger high, after multiple brush fires Tuesday through New Hampshire and parts of Central Massachusetts.

With drier air moving into New England Wednesday night, expect partly cloudy conditions, with a touch of fog likely to develop in sheltered valleys of especially Northern and Western New England where winds will be lightest and temperatures will fall into the 30s.  This cool but dry start to our Thursday will yield plenty of sunshine, and temperatures will respond accordingly all across New England.  The weather will be primed for change, however, for two reasons - one is a fair weather center (high pressure) and the other a storm (low pressure).  The storm in question will be moving east and can be found as of this writing over the Northern Plains, where blizzard conditions were observed yesterday in Montana and the same winter storm swept into North Dakota.  Though packed full of energy, this storm has been cut off from the fast jet stream winds aloft that normally steer storms and keep them moving, as the jet stream winds will be retreating quickly into Canada, leaving this storm behind.  That becomes important here in New England because as our current storm east of Nova Scotia finally departs, this next disturbance will slowly but surely march eastward, arriving by Saturday afternoon and evening.

Long before it arrives, however, we'll already be noticing marked weather changes from a completely different - and indeed, opposite - weather system.  A large area of high pressure, or fair weather, will be strengthening and building southeast through Canada from Hudson Bay southeast into Quebec.  The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure center will pull a wind from the northeast toward New England, pumping cooler air in our direction out of Canada as a result.  While most of Thursday will bring sunshine and warm temperatures for New England, we'll watch the wind shift associated with the leading edge of this cooler airmass moving southwest across New England late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.  The leading edge to a cooler airmass with a wind shift is the definition of a cold front, and since this front is coming in from the east, rather than the west, it's referred to as a "backdoor cold front" in the world of meteorology.  Call it what you will, but the result will be cooling temperatures at the east-facing shorelines and through Maine as soon as later Thursday afternoon, and through the remainder of New England Thursday night.

This new airmass will penetrate far inland, all the way through New England, and will set us up for a cool Friday.  With an easterly component meaning winds are blowing across cold ocean waters, this will further keep temperatures from rising and will also add ocean moisture to the lower levels of the atmosphere, allowing plenty of clouds to pop up Thursday night and Friday, though significant rainfall is unlikely given the dry nature of the Canadian air moving in.  It's at this point that we'll begin paying closer attention to the sluggish storm moving east toward New England, which will be dragging increasingly warm and humid air northward ahead of it in the counter-clockwise flow of air.  After a sunny and cool start Saturday, the clash of incoming warmth and moisture with the cool and dry air already in place over New England will mean increasing clouds through the day Saturday with rain spreading northeast across New England from Connecticut Saturday mid to late afternoon, to Southern Maine by Saturday evening.

Remember that a storm slow to move in also is likely to be a storm slow to move out, and with so much energy heading directly for New England, and the clash of two airmasses occurring directly overhead, there are a few likely results.  The first likely result is for bands of rain to fall heavily at times as long as the storm is nearby - which would stretch from Saturday night through Monday!  This doesn't mean it's going to rain the entire time...in fact, timing of the rain after Saturday night may become somewhat difficult...but it does mean various parts of New England will have to deal with rain showers and downpours coming and going through that period.  The other likely result is for a large difference in temperatures across New England as the two conflicting airmasses converge over New England - remaining cool across Northern and Central New England, while parts of Southern New England...especially Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southern Massachusetts...may warm into the 60s on Sunday, especially if any breaks of sun can emerge.  A coastal storm with windswept rain is likely to be the result of these conflicting airmasses and all of this energy on Monday, though exact track remains uncertain, so you'll want to check back for updates on this.

Technical Discussion:  I'll try to get one out by early afternoon, but with an appointment after the midday show, if none here by 1 PM, none coming today and will get out a nice one Thursday.

Enjoy your Hump Day!

Matt