MATTNOYES.NET - Weather Website & Blog

SPECIAL FEATURE: NOAA INSTALLS TSUNAMI BUOY SYSTEMS...PRESS RELEASE BELOW

After concerns following last year's tsunami, a tsunami monitoring system has been installed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.  The Press Release is below, including websites to monitor the buoys. THE NORMAL DAILY WEATHER DISCUSSIONS ARE POSTED BELOW!

NOAA LAUNCHES FIRST SET OF ATLANTIC BASIN TSUNAMI BUOY STATIONS

NOAA has finished installation of five Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami

(DART) buoy stations off the east and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean as part of the expansion of the U.S. tsunami warning system. The latest buoy station, off New Orleans, joins stations off Charleston, S.C.; Miami, and two off San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Completing a three-week deployment mission aboard the University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System ship SEWARD JOHNSON, the fifth station was deployed on Saturday.

"These buoys are a first line of defense in providing citizens of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf regions with a comprehensive tsunami warning system." said retired Navy Vice Adm.

Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "The DART stations are an advanced technology that will help to protect densely populated, highly attractive tourist destinations in these regions as well as protect their significant economic resources."

The DART system was designed and built by NOAA to provide real-time tsunami detection as the waves travel across the open ocean. The newly installed stations are a more robust DART II, equipped with advanced two-way satellite communications that allow forecasters to receive and retrieve critical data. NOAA expects the network to total 39 DART II buoy stations by 2008

(32 in the Pacific and seven in the Atlantic Basin).

NOAA received $17.2 million in supplemental funding in Fiscal Year 2005 and

$9.67 million in Fiscal Year 2006 to expand the U.S. tsunami warning system. Since receiving this funding, NOAA’s tsunami warning centers have expanded their services to provide tsunami watches and warnings to the entire U.S. Atlantic Coast, Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico, the U.S.

Virgin Islands and eastern Canada. These regions can now receive tsunami warnings and watches through NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards and the Emergency Alert System, just as they would be notified of tornadoes, flooding, or other hazards.

"The DART network is one component in a comprehensive system to detect and warn the public of a tsunami threat," said Lautenbacher.

"We have made important strides in enhancing our communication networks so East Coast residents and visitors can receive tsunami watches and warnings, upgrading our network of tide stations, working to staff our tsunami warning centers around the clock, producing forecast models for at-risk communities, transferring technology from research to operations, and providing public education."

In January 2006, Norfolk, Va., became the first major city on the East Coast to be recognized as TsunamiReady, a program in which NOAA’s National Weather Service works with communities to prepare evacuation plans, enhance communications and heighten awareness of tsunamis for both residents and visitors.

In the President’s Fiscal Year 2007 budget, the Administration is requesting approximately $21 million to complete its commitment to strengthen the nation’s tsunami warning program.

"Maintaining and upgrading the DART network and all components of the warning system is an ongoing effort. We are already investigating new technologies to build an all hazards warning capability as part of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems," stated Lautenbacher.

NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, 61 countries and the European Commission to develop a global network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

- 30 -

On the Web:

NOAA:

http://www.noaa.gov

NOAA’s National Weather Service:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov NOAA’s Tsunami Program: http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov DART Overview: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Dart/dart.shtml

TsunamiReady:

http://www.tsunamiready.noaa.gov/

Note: A map of existing DART locations is online at

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart.shtml. A map of the conceptual plan for DART expansion is available at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/images/dart-locations-2006.jpg

SPECIAL FEATURE: NOAA INSTALLS TSUNAMI BUOY SYSTEMS...PRESS RELEASE BELOW

After concerns following last year's tsunami, a tsunami monitoring system has been installed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.  The Press Release is below, including websites to monitor the buoys. THE NORMAL DAILY WEATHER DISCUSSIONS ARE POSTED BELOW!

NOAA LAUNCHES FIRST SET OF ATLANTIC BASIN TSUNAMI BUOY STATIONS

NOAA has finished installation of five Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami

(DART) buoy stations off the east and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean as part of the expansion of the U.S. tsunami warning system. The latest buoy station, off New Orleans, joins stations off Charleston, S.C.; Miami, and two off San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Completing a three-week deployment mission aboard the University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System ship SEWARD JOHNSON, the fifth station was deployed on Saturday.

"These buoys are a first line of defense in providing citizens of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf regions with a comprehensive tsunami warning system." said retired Navy Vice Adm.

Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "The DART stations are an advanced technology that will help to protect densely populated, highly attractive tourist destinations in these regions as well as protect their significant economic resources."

The DART system was designed and built by NOAA to provide real-time tsunami detection as the waves travel across the open ocean. The newly installed stations are a more robust DART II, equipped with advanced two-way satellite communications that allow forecasters to receive and retrieve critical data. NOAA expects the network to total 39 DART II buoy stations by 2008

(32 in the Pacific and seven in the Atlantic Basin).

NOAA received $17.2 million in supplemental funding in Fiscal Year 2005 and

$9.67 million in Fiscal Year 2006 to expand the U.S. tsunami warning system. Since receiving this funding, NOAA’s tsunami warning centers have expanded their services to provide tsunami watches and warnings to the entire U.S. Atlantic Coast, Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico, the U.S.

Virgin Islands and eastern Canada. These regions can now receive tsunami warnings and watches through NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards and the Emergency Alert System, just as they would be notified of tornadoes, flooding, or other hazards.

"The DART network is one component in a comprehensive system to detect and warn the public of a tsunami threat," said Lautenbacher.

"We have made important strides in enhancing our communication networks so East Coast residents and visitors can receive tsunami watches and warnings, upgrading our network of tide stations, working to staff our tsunami warning centers around the clock, producing forecast models for at-risk communities, transferring technology from research to operations, and providing public education."

In January 2006, Norfolk, Va., became the first major city on the East Coast to be recognized as TsunamiReady, a program in which NOAA’s National Weather Service works with communities to prepare evacuation plans, enhance communications and heighten awareness of tsunamis for both residents and visitors.

In the President’s Fiscal Year 2007 budget, the Administration is requesting approximately $21 million to complete its commitment to strengthen the nation’s tsunami warning program.

"Maintaining and upgrading the DART network and all components of the warning system is an ongoing effort. We are already investigating new technologies to build an all hazards warning capability as part of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems," stated Lautenbacher.

NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, 61 countries and the European Commission to develop a global network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

- 30 -

On the Web:

NOAA:

http://www.noaa.gov

NOAA’s National Weather Service:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov NOAA’s Tsunami Program: http://www.tsunami.noaa.gov DART Overview: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Dart/dart.shtml

TsunamiReady:

http://www.tsunamiready.noaa.gov/

Note: A map of existing DART locations is online at

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart.shtml. A map of the conceptual plan for DART expansion is available at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/images/dart-locations-2006.jpg

MARITIME STORM KEEPS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COOL...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WARMTH TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST NEXT FEW DAYS

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  The same stalled storm center east of Nova Scotia will have a profound impact on New England weather again Tuesday, bringing more clouds than sun for Eastern New England with north winds gusting up to 40 mph and gale warnings for most coastal waters.  Those of us in the Western half of New England - farther from the Maritime storm - will find more sunshine, somewhat lighter winds (gusting up to 30 mph) and warmer temperatures.  Expect clouds, fog and a few areas of drizzle to fill in through most of New England Tuesday night, yielding plenty of clouds in Eastern areas again Wednesday morning.  By noon Wednesday, I'm expecting most of New England to find a pleasant blend of sun and clouds with temperatures responding, though still held down a bit along coastal locales.  Thursday looks like a terrific spring day before winds shift to the east and northeast Thursday night into Friday, pushing noticeably cooler air back in off the ocean with increased cloud cover.  Cool air will stick around into the weekend, with rain likely Saturday evening and night, and showers and downpours periodically Sunday and Monday. -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

The same deep storm center that was spinning east of Nova Scotia on Monday remains stalled there for the timebeing, and that means the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm will continue pulling northerly winds, cool air and clouds into New England.  At the same time, a high pressure center to our Northwest, near James Bay, Canada, and with a clockwise flow of air around it, continues strengthening and further contributing to the propensity for a cool flow.

Most of Eastern New England experienced overnight and early morning rain showers, and while the near-surface atmosphere has dried enough for the showers to end and some sun to emerge, clouds will quickly fill back in as lingering moisture bubbles into a plentiful assortment of thick cumulus clouds - bubbling up through the morning and allowing only breaks of sunshine through the day in Eastern New England.  At the same time, winds will gust up to 40 mph through Maine and even into extreme Eastern Massachusetts - especially on Cape Cod - in areas that are closest to the large storm off the coastline.  These winds will continue churning the seas, and gale warnings remain in effect through Tuesday evening.  In the western half of New England - farther removed from the Maritime storm - drier and warmer air is taking hold, and this will mean plenty of sunshine with temperatures responding nicely to the sun.  Regardless, the loss of daytime heating and a moderate amount of low-altitude moisture will mean clouds will fill back in for most areas Tuesday night, with drizzle and fog developing in Eastern areas.

Lingeirng moisture will allow clouds to bubble up and blot out the sun from time to time through Eastern New England during the first half of the day Wednesday, though with the amount of moisture in the atmosphere gradually decreasing, it's likely that most areas will find a pleasant blend of sun and clouds Wednesday afternoon.  With warmer air still in place across Western and Central New England, temperatures will break well into the 60s and perhaps even near 70, while Eastern New England...though increasingly sunny...will remain a bit cooler.  A similar scenario of increased cloud cover is expected early Thursday morning, though all of New England should be drying out nicely with a spring blend of sun and clouds very quickly on Thursday, with most areas falling somewhere near or even over 70 degrees.

By Friday, Canadian high pressure will be on the move south and east - heading toward New England.  The clockwise flow of air around this fair weather center will turn winds onshore from the northeast and east, and while there may be a center of fair weather moving toward us, this wind shift along with a cool air drain often means increased cloud cover and a brisk day.  Given that the wind shift occurs Thursday night, I'm expecting this cooler scenario to play out on Friday as warm air is forced westward out of New England.  The cooler marine flow is likely to penetrate well inland and will last on Saturday, with increasing clouds late as a storm approaches from the west.

This next approaching storm is a slow mover - cutoff from the jet stream winds aloft that normally keep storms moving, as this corridor of jet stream winds will be lifting quickly north into Canada, leaving this storm behind.  What this means is two things - 1) the incoming storm will take a few days to arrive in New England, and 2) since it's so slow moving, that same storm probably won't be in a hurry to leave once it's on top of us.  The result is most likely to be increasing clouds Saturday afternoon with rain developing Saturday evening and night, then continued periodic showers and even some heavier downpours on both Sunday and Monday.

Have a fabulous Tuesday.

Technical Discussion:  None today.  Yesterday's is reposted below minus the part that applied to yesterday's weather in case you missed it.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Edited/Reposted from Monday, April 17 at 1:05 PM

....Abundant moisture in the low levels will keep plenty of Sc in place, and tho a few breaks are possible as weak inversion breaks around midday, temps will be held in check thru most of Central/Eastern NewEng's clouds.  Strong thermal ribbon evident in low level progs from E to W Tue and Wed, and this makes sense given cool and moist airmass wrapping around back of Scotian storm, while bubbling ridge to our west drives deep spring warmth toward NY State.  Likely result is for sunshine to burn thru and temps to respond in Western NewEng both afternoons.  Enuf dry air by Wed that even Eastern areas likely to break into decent blend of sun and clouds as diurnal effects and backing wind to NW downslope work their late-April magic.

More clouds may bubble overnight Wed Ngt along coastlines with loss of htg and vort lobes throwing cool air toward the coast, but once again this process should reverse Thu as sunshine does its work.  Still, temps will exhibit coastal/inland discrepancy as wind flow eases Thu afternoon with low east of NewEng pulling away and sea breeze circulation likely to set up.

Meanwhile, the jet stream winds will continue to lift well north - and quickly - over the next few days.  This is a typical spring transition and can mean big warmth, but with one upper level low stuck east of us, and another left behind by the jet stream over the nation's midsection, we not only have one low retarding warm advection, but another one yet to swing thru, and moving slowly thanks to the absence of strong jet stream winds.  The result will be a weather sandwich for NewEng on Fri but don't bank on a warmup with a 1024 high expanding rapidly SE from Hudson Bay.  This should pull a backdoor cold front into NewEng later Thu Ngt and set up northeast and east wind that will penetrate deep into the interior on Fri, holding most locales in the 50s for max temps.  This shallow cold dome is always tough for the guidance to pick up on, which is why some MOS members are shooting for middle 70's on Fri.  In reality, if there's any day this week for 70s it's going to be Thu away from the coastline where sea breeze will have no influence and 850s of +6 to +8 C will mix well under sunshine.  But by Fri I expect the cool reaches of the approaching and expanding anticyclone to be taking hold of NewEng.  At this point, Sat doesn't look substantially warmer - though likely a bit warmer as rain is likely to move E with next upper low and associated warm/moist advection slowly enuf to bring mostly dry day and while wind is still penetrating and onshore, it's SE rather than NE/E.  The reason I favor a slower solution to precip advancement at this point is combo of elongated E-W trof axis with 1025-1030 mb high over SE Canada and extending SE over NewEng which should provide enuf subsidence and dry air to offset isentropic lift trying to ride northward ahead of slowly approaching upper low.

It may take until later Sat/Sat Ngt for strong enuf warm/moist advection for precip to develop, tho likely still a band of at least showers associated with baroclinic zone setting up over NewEng on Sun.  As upper low center moves just S of NewEng ejecting east late Sun and on Mon, potential exists to wring out a moderate or even heavy QPF event.  I say this because there is still plenty of vorticity assoc with this upper low, and sandwiched between two anticyclones with the eastern one providing moist Atlantic inflow, one would think the potential to crank out rainfall is fairly high.  Coming in from the northwest is the next anticyclone, packed with some pretty cool air.  While an imaginative mind could try to get this cold wrapped into the system for some backside snow showers, it looks a bit too slow to do that right now, but there's something to be said for the meteorological imagination and it's worth keeping in the back of our minds.  Regardless, this should help to ensure that we keep cool air coming thru midweek next week, obliterating my plans from several weeks ago on a warm finish to April and delaying it to the beginning of May.

Enjoy your Tuesday.

Matt

NEAR-PERFECT MARATHON WEATHER...COOL COASTAL FLOW BEGINS THE WEEK

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:

Marathon Checkpoint Forecast (City, Temp, Dewpoint, Relative Humidity, and Wind):

Hopkinton:  52, 33, 48%, NNW at 10 mph

Ashland:  53, 33, 46%, N at 8 mph

Framingham:  54, 34, 46%, N at 11 mph

Natick:  54, 35, 48%, N at 11 mph

Wellesley:  54, 35, 48%, N at 8 mph

Newton:  55, 35, 46%, N at 10 mph

Brighton: 53, 36, 52%, NNE at 12 mph

Boston:  51, 37, 58%, NNE at 14 mph

With an area of high pressure building across Southern Canada and a storm center spinning over Nova Scotia, a cool north and northeast flow will take hold of New England.  Signs of increasing moisture with this northeast flow will be evidenced by building cloud cover blotting out the sun for Central and Southern New England through Patriots Day, with overcast skies through most of Maine, Northern NH and Northern VT.  By Monday night, northeast winds drive cooler and more moist air southward through most of New England, bringing a lowering cloud deck and even some drizzle and fog to Eastern areas.  Tuesday dawns with plenty of clouds and lingering drizzle and fog, though the cloud base should rise during the day and Western New England is likely to break into some sunshine.  With the storm stalled east of us over Nova Scotia, Eastern New England will remain relatively cool with plenty of clouds on Wednesday - though some sunshine is likely - while Central and Western New England will see plenty of sunshine and responding temperatures into the 60s.  By Thursday, expect a great spring day for one and all before another shot of northeast winds - and corresponding cool conditions with building clouds - moves in for Friday.

General Weather Summary: 

As a deep area of low pressure spins over Nova Scotia, stalling there for the start of our workweek, the counter-clockwise flow around the storm will help to direct winds from the northeast across New England.  At the same time, a high pressure center to our Northwest, near James Bay, Canada, and with a clockwise flow of air around it, will be strengthening and further contributing to the propensity for a cool and increasingly moist flow into New England from the northeast.

The initial indications of the increasing moisture in the atmosphere for Southern New England has been waves of increasing cloud cover, pinwheeling around the western side of the stalled storm center over the Canadian Maritimes, dropping showers across Northern, Central and Eastern Maine, but encountering a bit of a drying northerly flow as the moisture travels south, bringing periods of clouds thickest after noontime, with cloud bases around 2500-3000 feet.  The limited sunshine and northerly wind flow will, of course, limit just how warm New England can be on Monday, with most areas remaining below normal temperatures for today's date.

Overnight Monday night, the northerly flow begins to turn more from the northeast, and this introduces increasing moisture not only aloft, but also at ground level.  The result will be a lowering and thickening cloud deck likely to be accompanied by drizzle and fog overnight, especially near the coastline.  A few rain showers are possible toward dawn in Southern New England, as well.

While the near-surface atmosphere will dry enough on Tuesday for the showers to end, cloud bases to rise and for the fog to burn off, skies will likely remain overcast with moisture continuing to stream in aloft behind the stalled Scotian storm.  Trying to nose eastward out of the Ohio Valley, however, will be drier and warmer air, and it's likely that the Western periphery of New England will break into some sunshine Tuesday afternoon.

Though the amount of moisture in the atmosphere will gradually decrease on Wednesday, it's likely that eastern communities will still see clouds bubbling up, especially during the first half of the day, while Western and Central New England break into the 60s under increasing sunshine.  A similar scenario is expected Thursday morning, though by afternoon all of New England should be drying out nicely with a spring blend of sun and clouds.

At this point, it appears another "backdoor cold front" is en route for Friday - shifting winds around to the northeast and east once again, pushing deep warmth westward out of New England and bringing a cooler marine flow inland for most of our six-state region.

Cool air is likely to stick around with an onshore flow into next weekend, with showers especially likely Saturday night into Sunday.

Enjoy your Patriots Day!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Monday, April 17 at 1:05 PM

Increasing moisture progged in guidance playing out well and evidenced by widespread Sc popping thru Central/Southern NewEng while rain continues to fall periodically in Central/Northern/Eastern ME.  Multiple vorticity maximums will drop southward over NewEng over the next 84 hours as upper low currently E of Nova Scotia retrogrades then stalls E of NewEng.  The result will be a continued cool northerly flow deep into the atmosphere and temps at least in Eastern NewEng likely to verify below MOS guidance thru the period.

In the immediate term, rain in ME unlikely to penetrate very far south during the day with lingering westerly component, then eventually due N/NNE flow in lower levels of the atmosphere not conducive to moistening the column daylight Mon.  The result will be continuing bubbling Cu field with input of moisture a few thousand feet off ground level and this Cu field will help to halt temp rises.

Overnight Mon Ngt, northeast flow will succeed in bringing moisture in as loss of diurnal heating allows air to cool sufficiently.  Clouds should lower quickly from ME coast southward after sundown.  Some question lingers in my mind as to whether we see fog/drizzle setting up in Eastern NewEng given Tds in the middle 30s, but daytime temps with incoming airmass over Ern ME are running in the 40s and as this air cools and Tds rise to near 40, certainly some potential to realize this in cooler locales, tho most may only see low deck.  Backing this up is the fact that most locales don't go to a true northeast flow...more due north or just east of north in coastal locales...and this also would favor keeping the boundary layer slightly drier.  Given this marginal setup which continues on Tue, even weak diurnal effects thru clouds will allow for fog/low clouds to rise in base altitude Tue, tho abundant moisture in the low levels will keep plenty of Sc in place, and tho a few breaks are possible as weak inversion breaks around midday, temps will be held in check thru most of Central/Eastern NewEng's clouds.  Strong thermal ribbon evident in low level progs from E to W Tue and Wed, and this makes sense given cool and moist airmass wrapping around back of Scotian storm, while bubbling ridge to our west drives deep spring warmth toward NY State.  Likely result is for sunshine to burn thru and temps to respond in Western NewEng both afternoons.  Enuf dry air by Wed that even Eastern areas likely to break into decent blend of sun and clouds as diurnal effects and backing wind to NW downslope work their late-April magic.

More clouds may bubble overnight Wed Ngt along coastlines with loss of htg and vort lobes throwing cool air toward the coast, but once again this process should reverse Thu as sunshine does its work.  Still, temps will exhibit coastal/inland discrepancy as wind flow eases Thu afternoon with low east of NewEng pulling away and sea breeze circulation likely to set up.

Meanwhile, the jet stream winds will continue to lift well north - and quickly - over the next few days.  This is a typical spring transition and can mean big warmth, but with one upper level low stuck east of us, and another left behind by the jet stream over the nation's midsection, we not only have one low retarding warm advection, but another one yet to swing thru, and moving slowly thanks to the absence of strong jet stream winds.  The result will be a weather sandwich for NewEng on Fri but don't bank on a warmup with a 1024 high expanding rapidly SE from Hudson Bay.  This should pull a backdoor cold front into NewEng later Thu Ngt and set up northeast and east wind that will penetrate deep into the interior on Fri, holding most locales in the 50s for max temps.  This shallow cold dome is always tough for the guidance to pick up on, which is why some MOS members are shooting for middle 70's on Fri.  In reality, if there's any day this week for 70s it's going to be Thu away from the coastline where sea breeze will have no influence and 850s of +6 to +8 C will mix well under sunshine.  But by Fri I expect the cool reaches of the approaching and expanding anticyclone to be taking hold of NewEng.  At this point, Sat doesn't look substantially warmer - though likely a bit warmer as rain is likely to move E with next upper low and associated warm/moist advection slowly enuf to bring mostly dry day and while wind is still penetrating and onshore, it's SE rather than NE/E.  The reason I favor a slower solution to precip advancement at this point is combo of elongated E-W trof axis with 1025-1030 mb high over SE Canada and extending SE over NewEng which should provide enuf subsidence and dry air to offset isentropic lift trying to ride northward ahead of slowly approaching upper low.

It may take until later Sat/Sat Ngt for strong enuf warm/moist advection for precip to develop, tho likely still a band of at least showers associated with baroclinic zone setting up over NewEng on Sun.  As upper low center moves just S of NewEng ejecting east late Sun and on Mon, potential exists to wring out a moderate or even heavy QPF event.  I say this because there is still plenty of vorticity assoc with this upper low, and sandwiched between two anticyclones with the eastern one providing moist Atlantic inflow, one would think the potential to crank out rainfall is fairly high.  Coming in from the northwest is the next anticyclone, packed with some pretty cool air.  While an imaginative mind could try to get this cold wrapped into the system for some backside snow showers, it looks a bit too slow to do that right now, but there's something to be said for the meteorological imagination and it's worth keeping in the back of our minds.  Regardless, this should help to ensure that we keep cool air coming thru midweek next week, obliterating my plans from several weeks ago on a warm finish to April and delaying it to the beginning of May.

Have a wonderful Patriots Day.

Matt

HOPPING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMTH, EASING THROUGH EASTER ON A COOLER NOTE

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  With warm air lingering in New England on Friday, temperatures are likely to rise back into the 70s in Central and Southern New England communities by day's end.  Morning sunshine fading behind increasing clouds will eventually give way to rain showers, downpours, and perhaps a few thunderstorms in Western New England Friday afternoon, progressing steadily east as the sun sets, and bringing steady rains to Southern New England Friday night, wtih showers across Northern New England.  Expect showers to come to a close for most of Central and Southern New England Saturday morning, leaving a mainly dry day with enough warm air to still boost temperatures into the 70s, though much cooler where showes and downpours linger across the North Country and most of Maine.  An upper level disturbance will sit over Northern New England on Easter Sunday, bringing showers to Central and Northern Maine while the remainder of New England finds sunshine giving way to billowing clouds and a few sprinkles, with brisk conditions.  This upper level disturbance will settle south on Patriots Day, meaning we can expect breaks of sun amidst lots of clouds, continued cool and brisk conditions, and a few sprinkles or light rain showers around.  Improvement begins on Tuesday.  All the best to you and yours on this Good Friday, for the Easter holiday, and for the extended weekend (for some).  -Matt

Weather Summary coming later this morning, technical discussion later today.

General Weather Summary: 

The holiday weekend will feature a transition from mild and summer-like weather to something more akin to April in New England.

Friday dawned with sunshine and mild air still in place.  A light south wind will team with this sunshine to boost temperatures into the 70s for many areas before clouds thicken Friday afternoon in advance of the next system.  The weather scenario over the next few days is actually a fairly complicated one, with multiple energetic disturbances at the jet stream level and a couple of fronts at the surface.  Friday morning's surface analysis places one area of low pressure over Southern Michigan, with a flow of warm and moist air surging northward ahead of the storm center, driven north by the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm.  As this moisture and warmth reaches for New England, clouds will spill overhead, lowering and thickening until showers move east out of New York State and into Western New England Friday afternoon.  With the surge of warmth and moisture a few thousand feet off the ground, embedded downpours and thunder are possible.  Farther east, showers will likely take awhile to arrive as they battle dry air about 10-15,000 feet in altitude.  I would expect steadier rains to follow, making their way from Western New England around 5 PM, then encompassing most of New England by either side of 8 PM.  Overnight, rains will fall periodically with embedded downpours from time to time, and areas of fog as moisture increases near ground-level.  You can follow these showers and downpours tonight through the radar links to the right of this discussion.

Though cooler air will be in place just over the Canadian border on Saturday, it will be a slow process to drain this cool air southward until the many disturbances passing over New England converge into a larger storm over Maine, turning winds from the northwest and carrying cooler air southward Saturday night.  This means with showers giving way to emerging sunshine and warm air still in place, Saturday afternoon temperatures should climb into the 70's again for Central and Southern New England, though Maine will remain cool and showery with downpours falling from time to time across most of Northern New England.  Though it's not impossible Southern areas may squeeze out a late afternoon shower, for the most part the atmosphere gradually dries out Saturday night into Sunday.  Our Easter Sunday will be cool but mostly dry, with bubbling puffy cumulus clouds becoming black bottomed in some hilly and mountainous terrain where a few light rain showers will be especially likely (perhaps some heavier showers in Central and Northern Maine) - just a few sprinkles are likely elsewhere amidst clouds and breaks of sun with a cool breeze.

It still looks to me like the cool air will stick around for Marathon Monday - Patriots' Day - with high temperatures held in the lower 50s with a brisk northerly component to the wind.  At this point, northwest, north or northeast winds would all be possible, though the tendency toward the finish line would be for a northeast wind from the ocean.  Sky conditions would likely feature plenty of billowing puffy cumulus clouds blotting out the sun from time to time, with a few sprinkles or light rain showers a slight possibility, but more so during the afternoon. 

Improving weather looks to be in the cards for Tuesday, though still brisk as the same upper level disturbance over New England this weekend will be slow to lift out.

Enjoy your weekend, Happy Easter, and Happy Patriots Day!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Friday, April 14 at 11:35 AM

A complex weather scenario takes hold of NewEng thru the holiday weekend with high stakes forecasting.  The setup currently involves a tricky set of circumstances surface and aloft.  At the surface, a stationary front is draped across Central NewEng as of this writing and links back to a weak triple point low over Southern MI.  From this triple point a cold front trails westward just north of Chicago and to a low pressure center over SW Iowa, then snakes southwest, while a warm front is pushing northeast out of the Ohio Valley.

The overall progression of the next 48 hours will be to swing multiple vort maxes through NewEng south of the main upper level disturbance which will drop from a position near Hudson Bay to a location at the Canadian border with NewEng.  Until the energy converges into the upper low, it will be very difficult to bring cold air southward, which is why a forecast for warming is justified on Sat - likely as warm as Friday in many areas of Southern NewEng where sunshine will emerge.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves here - showers, rain and embedded downpours are moving east toward NewEng as of this writing.  Not much room between when the clouds thicken and when the rain begins, which is evidence of the moderate push of warmth and moisture aloft (evident in positive Theta-E advection) which continues thru Fri ngt as midlvl trof swings thru.  Total QPF will be relatively light - around .25" Western areas and lesser east.  Nonetheless, as showers continue to develop east, it's likely that raindrops will fall for a good part of the night, and some convective elements of heavier rain are likely to survive the trip given the isentropic lift, though this lift is not impressive enough to get too excited about.

With NVA moving in to start Saturday, one would see the trend to be for some sunshine in Central and Southern NewEng and that seems reasonable.  Vort max swinging thru is strong Sat afternoon and will keep downpours going across Northern New Eng.  Farther south, CAPE builds to over 1000 J/kg and LIs drop to -3 as insolation works on lingering warm atmosphere to boost sfc temps into the 70's.  The problem with any thoughts of convection here is that 700 mb RH is progged to be less than 10% over the area of instability which will provide a decent inversion and the atmosphere will likely be too capped.  Obviously if any cells do develop, they'll really have the potential to take off, so on-duty meteorologists will keep a close eye to the radar, and those of us who are out and about should at least keep an eye to the sky during the late afternoon.  Of more interest to me is the thermal structure of the atmosphere - with +16 C air at 925 mb, +10 at 850 mb, and a downsloping WSW flow forecasted to make it all the way to the coast, which supports temperatures exceeding 80 in Eastern MA Saturday afternoon.  This isn't a lock, however, as indications are that Eastern MA may begin the day with a southeast or even east wind as a new warm frontal wave develops ESE of NewEng and is ready to be absorbed northward up the frontal boundary into Maine during the day Sat.  While this wave will keep conditions rainy and cool in Maine most of the day, and add some extra moisture influx to dynamically forced downpours in Northern NewEng, there's fairly good agreement the east wind lets go of Eastern Southern NewEng by midday and the low level deck of clouds break up.  It makes sense that as soon as winds go to downsloping the clouds will break, so I have to believe that while Boston may not hit 80 because clouds linger just a bit too long and waste diurnal heating time early in the day, suburbs southwest of Boston like Norwood may be able to reach 81 or so.  We'll see...something fun to watch.

With the upper low not eager to go anywhere on Easter, instability will linger under the cold pool with plenty of showers, downpours, and enuf cold air for snow showers in the higher terrain of the Northern Green and Whites, esp in upslope favored areas.  Still a northwest wind at the surface and this downsloping will help to dry the boundary layer in Central and Southern NewEng for billowing Cu and some sprinkles or light showers, but likely a mainly dry day.

By Monday, cool air remains in place and concerns of a backdoor front linger.  Signs have been consistent of a northeast wind sneaking down the coast by Monday morning and 850 RH progs are saturated.  That being said, the northeast wind shift is a gradual one, not a sudden pronounced shift and this has me thinking that we're not going to be dealing with a true "backdoor front" but likely more a cool air drain which comes accompanied by increasing moisture in the lower levels and boundary layer.  This would favor the forecast you and I have been carrying together of more clouds than sun, cool and brisk conditions with maximum temps not likely to exceed the lower 50's (coastal locales may be cooler than that) and north wind gradually coming around to northeast.  Sprinkles and light showers would be a slight possibility in Eastern MA, but more likely under the cool moist dome of Maine.

Tuesday looks for improvement but not a quick warmup thanks to slow moving upper low.

I think that's enough for today.  Enjoy your holiday.

Matt

SUMMERTIME FEEL FOR THURSDAY...TRANSITION TO WEEKEND COOL TO BE GRADUAL, NOT SUDDEN

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Though clouds and showers begin our Thursday for some of New England, these clouds will give way to increasing sunshine late in the morning and that sunshine will team up with southwest winds gusting to 30 mph to bring temperatures into the lower and middle 70s in Central and Southern New England!  Farther north, expect somewhat more cloud cover, and this will help to hold temperatures in the 60s.  Later Thursday afternoon, the passage of a cold front may touch off a few showers and thunderstorms from west to east, and a few of these thunderstorms in Southern New England may contain a strong localized wind gust.  You'll be able to follow these storms throughout the day in the radar imagery to the right of this synopsis.  Behind the cold front, cool air drains in slowly to New England, rather than rushing in.  This slower bleed of cool air has allowed me to raise expected temperatures for Friday, and highs closing in on 70 are possible, especially in Southern New England.  Expect overnight showers from Thursday night to be done by Friday morning, leaving a dry start with some sunshine a possibility.  Clouds will increase through the day and rain will develop from west to east during the late afternoon and evening, lasting through Friday night as a steady and at times heavy rain.  By Saturday, most of Southern New England will be drying out with plenty of bubbling cumulus clouds, some breaks of sun, and perhaps a few light rain showers here and there (though not anywhere near a washout) while Northern New England will find some juicier showers and downpours scattered through the day.  Easter Sunday will be dry for most of New England excepting Central and Northern maine where showers will continue cropping up, and all of us will be noticeably cooler.  Cool and mainly dry weather should continue on Patriots Day as a rain-making storm barely misses to our south.  -Matt

Weather Summary coming later this morning.

General Weather Summary: 

Thursday morning's showers moving through New England were originally sparked by a cold front racing east into New York State, though these showers outran the cold front during the overnight.  What this means is that, as the showers depart, sunshine awaits for New England along with lingering mild air.  The result will be a period of summer-like warmth through most of Central and Southern New England Thursday midday into early afternoon.  Warm southwest breezes will continue gusting to 30 mph during this time and coupled with sunshine we'll see our temperatures responding  - rising into the lower and middle 70s for lots of towns, while Northern New England remains a bit cooler under more clouds and isolated showers.  The actual passage of the cold front late Thursday afternoon is likely to bring one more round of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in Southern New England, which may bring a gusty thunderstorm to one or two communities, though I expect them to be moving into Southeastern MA and dying rapidly by the time the Red Sox get underway at Fenway.

With the cold front through New England, a new cooler airmass will begin filtering into the six-state region.  Still nearby, however, warmer and more moist air will still be in place as an energetic disturbance at the jet stream level - thousands of feet in altitude - approaches New England, racing eastward from the Northern Tier of the US.  This disturbance will do two things with our weather here in New England - first, it will slow the spill of cold air enough so that most areas will still rebound to near 70 degrees Friday afternoon, and second, it will bring thickening clouds with rain developing from west to east late Friday afternoon and evenign after a dry start.  These showers will likely evolve into a steady rain through Friday night as a wave of low pressure ripples along the front, stalled in Southern New England.  The passage of this wave of low pressure will help to pull additional cool air southward into New England, while at the same time, new energy aloft will spin southward out of Eastern Canada and into New England.  The result of all of these factors will be persistent pockets of rain and downpours directly under the incoming new energetic disturbance on Saturday - over Northern New England, while Southern New England will find only a few light showers under more clouds than sun for Southern New England.

As the atmosphere gradually dries out Saturday night into Sunday, our Easter Sunday will be cool but mostly dry, with bubbling puffy cumulus clouds becoming black bottomed in some hilly and mountainous terrain where a few light rain showers will be especially likely - just a few sprinkles are likely elsewhere amidst clouds and breaks of sun with a cool breeze.

It still looks to me like the cool air will stick around for Marathon Monday - Patriots' Day - with high temperatures held in the lower 50s with a brisk northerly component to the wind.  At this point, northwest, north or northeast winds would all be possible, though the tendency toward the finish line would be for a northeast wind from the ocean.  Sky conditions would likely feature billowing puffy cumulus clouds blotting out the sun from time to time, with a few sprinkles or light rain showers a slight possibility, but more so during the afternoon.  It's important to let you know there WILL be a steady rain-producing storm moving toward the East Coast on Monday, though it continues to appear to me as though most of the steady rains will miss New England to the south.  Still, this bears watching and, as always, I'll continue to keep you in the loop.

Have a great Thursday.

Technical Discussion:  None today.  Back tomorrow.

Matt

ABNORMAL WARMTH TO GIVE WAY TO COOL EASTER WEEKEND

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  High altitude cirrus clouds riding east out of New York State will add a milky appearance to the skies of New England Wednesday afternoon, but this won't keep the combination of sunshine and an increasing southerly wind gusting to 30 mph from boosting temperatures near 70.  The increasing clouds will be well in advance of a strong energetic storm that will push into Southern Canada, but is sending its moisture sailing out ahead of it and enough moisture will move into New England for rain showers to develop from west to east after midnight Wednesday night, lingering in Eastern New England into Thursday morning.  By midday Thursday, sunshine will break out and temperatures will soar into the 70s before a cold front swings through with a few afternoon thunderstorms and a cooler airmass for the weekend.  Expect rain to redevelop the second half of Friday, heavy at times through Friday night.  By Saturday, scattered showers are likely to be found in Southern New England, while periods of rain and downpours linger across the North Country.  Easter Sunday is looking cool but mostly dry with just the chance of a sprinkle, and Marathon Monday is shaping up to be a cool day with highs in the lower 50's.  We'll be watching rain carefully, as this rain will begin to fall either side of marathon time!  -Matt

Weather Summary and Technical Discussion coming later this morning.

General Weather Summary: 

The Wednesday morning surface analysis places an area of high pressure east of New England, an and an area of low pressure - a storm center - over the Great Lakes with an attendant cold front draped southward across the nation's midsection.  The next few days will sweep this front through New England, followed by cool air and energetic disturbances that will make for unsettled weather heading into the Easter weekend.

In the meantime, our Wednesday weather is shaping up to be another winner across New England with dry air through most of the atmosphere.  Much like Tuesday's weather, I'd expect an upper level disturbance to move overhead with an area of clouds dimming the sun from time to time.  Unlike Tuesday, however, Wednesday's clouds will be higher in altitude, thinner in nature, and come later in the day, all helping to keep the sunshine's warmth boosting our temperatures.  Additional help in warming New England Wednesday afternoon will come from a strengthening south wind gusting up to 30 mph by the end of the day, ushered in as the clockwise flow of air from eastward departing high pressure interacts with counter-clockwise airflow around the storm advancing toward us from the west.  As clouds thicken, winds will remain active Wednesday night, and this will hold temperatures in the 40s to around 50.

Eventually, enough moisture will move into New England that showers will begin falling after midnight Wednesday night from west to east.  These showers will be accompanied by areas of fog, and both will linger into Thursday morning's commute.  Though originally sparked by the approaching cold front - which marks a change to cooler weather for the weekend - these showers will be racing east of the front, and after they depart Thursday morning, most of New England will see a period of time in warm air and drying conditions ahead of the incoming cold front.  Breezes will remain active during this midday and early afternoon time, sunshine will emerge, and temperatures will respond - bumping into the lower to middle 70s!  The actual passage of the cold front late Thursday into Thursday evening is likely to bring one more round of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in Southern New England.

With the cold front through New England, a new cooler airmass will begin pouring into our area.  Not far to our south, however, warmer and more moist air will still be in place as an energetic disturbance at the jet stream level - thousands of feet in altitude - approaches New England.  This disturbance actually is just moving into the Pacific Northwest coast as of this Wednesday morning, so will be racing eastward.  The result will be developing rain later Friday after a dry start, with rain showers continuing through Friday night as a wave of low pressure ripples along the front, stalled south of New England.  The passage of this wave of low pressure will help to pull additional cool air southward into New England, while at the same time, new energy aloft will spin southward out of Eastern Canada and into New England.  The result of all of these factors will be persistent pockets of rain and downpours directly under the incoming new energetic disturbance on Saturday - and at this point that appears to be over Northern New England, while Southern New England will be sandwiched between the storm departing to our south and east (the same one that brings late Friday rains) and the new energy to the north.  The result should be only scattered showers under more clouds than sun for Southern New England.

As the atmosphere gradually dries out Saturday night into Sunday, it's likely that our Easter Sunday will be cool but mostly dry, with bubbling puffy cumulus clouds becoming black bottomed in some hilly and mountainous terrain where a few light rain showers will be especially likely - just a few sprinkles are likely elsewhere amidst clouds and breaks of sun with a cool breeze.

It still looks to me like the cool air will stick around for Marathon Monday - Patriots' Day - with high temperatures held in the lower 50s with a brisk northerly component to the wind.  At this point, northwest, north or northeast winds would all be possible, though the tendency - especially toward the finish line - would be for a northeast wind.  Sky conditions would likely feature billowing puffy cumulus clouds blotting out the sun from time to time, with a few sprinkles or light rain showers a possibility, but more so during the afternoon.  It's important to let you know there WILL be a steady rain-producing storm moving toward the East Coast on Monday, and while right now it appears as though most of the steady rains will miss New England to the south, it bears watching and, as always, I'll continue to keep you in the loop.

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Wednesday, April 12 at 1:15 PM

Cirrus will ride overhead associated with isentropic lift 500 mb and above this afternoon but will lower and thicken overnight in advance of shortwave moving E across Great Lakes.  Good agreement among guidance on showers holding off until after midnight, and sticking around into the AM.  With strengthening pressure gradient kicking up southerly winds to gusts of 30 mph with mixing to 900 mb, warm and moist advection will continue in the boundary layer and sfc Tds in the lower 40s are moving from Long Island to the South Coast of New Eng and overspread most of Southern NewEng tonight, allowing fog to form esp as showers move in.

Not only does guidance still support the temps I've been carrying for Thu - lower to middle 70s in most of NewEng - but the real-time observations do, as well.  A quick look at the big picture for the Eastern US lays out the same scenario of a band of clouds and showers well removed from the cold front, then an area of clearing and warm temperatures, then the cold frontal boundary.  CAPE should climb Thu afternoon to over 1000 J/kg - modeled well as a small pocket of 1000+ on the NAM, but surface temps are slightly underdone on this guidance product and therefore these values likely to be found thru most of Southern NewEng while LIs drop to between -3 and -5.  850 and 700 mb flow is around 25-35 kts with 500 mb flow around 40 kts in these areas - marginal but sufficient for damaging gusts in stronger convective cells.  Trigger will be combo of surface cold front and weak to moderate vort max diving SE across NewEng, though admittedly best PVA is shifting offshore by that point, but still in cyclonic vorticity advection nonetheless.  What could serve to squash this activity is dry air at 700 mb, also evident today behind the prefrontal convective band, which will cap the atmosphere.  Putting all of this together, I would expect isolated convection to develop Thu mid thru late afternoon in Southern NewEng and any of these cells would have the potential for a localized damaging wind gust.

New cool and dry airmass presses S into Fri, but not all that far south, and this sets up baroclinic ribbon S of NewEng, which incoming vort max will use to enhance surface cyclone development.  I know the NAM went nuts on this system in the 00Z run and brought sustained 30-40 kt winds to Cape Cod late Fri with over 1" rain most Southern NewEng areas, but this truly seemed to be a convective feedback problem and the GFS seemed more reasonable.  Still, even getting a look at the 12Z runs I believe the NAM is suffering from feedback - though to a lesser extent than previously - and GFS still seems like the superior guidance product until the NAM gets on board.

While I do prefer the GFS solution through Friday evening, I do think it is under-estimating QPF across Northern NewEng for Sat, when vort sits over the North Country and interacts with weak moist inflow around developing surface low to our east.  The likely result is for plenty of showers/downpours thru Northern NewEng and depending on how this plays out, so degree of banding is possible in the North, as well.  Farther south, however, south of the vort max, I expect only bubbling Cu that may become congested enough for a few light showers in what will otherwise be a weak downsloping flow, which will aid in breaking these clouds for Central/Southern NewEng.

Good agreement on a relatively dry Easter, though with multiple vorts rotating around the upper low setting up over Northern ME I'd certainly expect more bubbling Cu that may spill over for a few showers north and sprinkles south.  I'm also a believer that the forecast you and I have been eyeing for Marathon Monday will hold, though admittedly the strong vort max diving southeast out of Canada is something to watch carefully.  At this point, it looks like confluent flow is strong enuf south of the upper low to force this vort just far enuf south to keep us out of the precip shield on Mon, setting up another cool and brisk day of building cold cumulus.  Chances are good that if this solution turns out, we end up with a northwest wind for most spots, but with a low level trof over Southern NewEng I won't get too fancy with potential of more northerly or even coastal (finish line) northeast wind.

Looking farther out, it's going to be very difficult to achieve the warmer than normal temps I was planning on for the end of April unless something signficant changes in the pattern, as the upper low that sets up this weekend becomes large and deep enough to bring persistent troffing to the Northeast, replaced by the next strong shortwave next week that keeps the troffing going.  Sure enough, there will be plenty of anomalous warmth in the Western and Central US, but with troffing holding on across the Northeast, this warmth is forced north into Central Canada.  Eventually, this will mean dry warmth for NewEng, but it may take until the final week of April.  Together, you and I will keep a close eye on this pattern in the coming days!

Have a great Wednesday.

Matt

MARVELOUS MIDWEEK WEATHER TO BE REPLACED BY COOLER, SHOWERY PATTERN

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  High pressure continues to dominate with sunshine blotted out only by passing high and middle altitude clouds Tuesday, but light winds will prevail and temperatures will rise into the 60s, touching 70 in some interior locales.  Along coastlines, a sea breeze sets up again today, keeping most immediate coastal communities near 60.  Another quiet night is in store Tuesday night though a south wind and passing clouds will keep most areas a bit warmer than the past couple of nights though with a slight increase in moisture we're likely to see fog developing in the valleys of Southern New England.  Wednesday will bring another day of sunshine though winds will increase well in advance of an approaching cold front, gusting up to 25-30 mph from the south later in the day under gradually increasing clouds.  Showers Wednesday night will give way to breaks of sunshine and very mild temperatures Thursday before a round of thunderstorms rolls through Thursday afternoon in conjunction with a passing cold front.  By Friday, expect cooler air with mostly cloudy skies and developing midday and afternoon showers, then more clouds than sun for Saturday with scattered showers in Southern New England and periodic rain north.  By Sunday, clouds and breaks of sun may produce a sprinkle with continued cooler temperatures.  -Matt

Weather Summary coming later this morning.

General Weather Summary: 

Our stretch of fantastic weather continues as high pressure drifts from the Mid-Atlantic coast to a position east of New England.  Under the axis of this fair weather center, winds will be light across New England and the only clouds found across the region are middle and high altitude clouds riding over our dome of dry air, associated with a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  With light prevailing wind, however, expect a cooling sea breeze once again Tuesday for seaside communities, keeping these locales closer to high temperatures of 60.  Fenway Park will fall into this category, where temperatures will near 60 at first pitch for the Home Opener, then drop into the 50's as the game progresses, making a sweatshirt or light jacket a good idea.

With a light south wind gradually bringing increasing atmospheric moisture to especially Southern New England overnight Tuesday night, valleys may see some fog by Wednesday morning.  Meanwhile, a storm is pulling out of the Rockies and into Canada, dragging its associated cold front east across the nation's midsection Tuesday into Wednesday.  As the cold front nears, winds will kick up across New England Wednesday afternoon - gusting from the south at 25-30 mph by late in the day - and eventually bringing increasing clouds with a period of rain showers to New England Wednesday night in advance of the cold front.

The actual front, however, is likely to be delayed in swinging through New England on Thursday, allowing temperatures to remain mild.  With the passage of the front Thursday afternoon, a round of showers and thunderstorms are likely, and behind this front a cooler and somewhat more unsettled airmass will move into New England.  The result will be a cooler day of clouds, some sun, and widespread afternoon showers on Friday, with cooler temperatures and periodic showers likely sticking around into at least the first part of the weekend.  At this point, I'd expect periods of rain in Northern New England on Saturday while Southern New England finds more clouds than sun and scattered showers, especially during the afternoon.  By Sunday, most areas would find a blend of plenty of clouds, some sunshine, and a cool day with a few sprinkles or light rain showers.  That being said, this is the second weekend in a row that there is some uncertainty with the weekend forecast, as a storm will be developing directly over us - a slightly more southern displacement would carry steady and occasionally heavy rains into Southern New England instead of just for those of us in the North, and a deviation either west or east of my current thinking would have an effect on the forecast, as well.  As of right now, though, the forecast I've laid out above is my best estimate and one I am reasonably confident with.

And how about the Boston Marathon?  Obviously it's still quite early, but the cooler airmass still looks to me as though it will be in place for Marathon Monday, holding temperatures below normal - probably not above the lower 50s - with a brisk northerly component to the wind.  At this point, northwest, north or northeast winds would all be possible, though the tendency - especially toward the finish line - would be for a northeast wind.  Sky conditions would likely feature billowing puffy cumulus clouds blotting out the sun from time to time, with a few sprinkles or light rain showers a possibility, but more so during the afternoon.  I'll keep you posted!

Have a great Tuesday!

Technical Discussion:  None today.  I'll have one out tomorrow (Wednesday).

Matt

MILD SPRING WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK!

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  After over an inch of rain in far Southern New England this weekend, and enough sleet to coat the grounds of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeastern MA, milder spring weather makes its return to New England for the workweek.  A large area of high pressure moving east from the Ohio Valley will anchor over the East Coast for the first half of the week, bringing a stretch of dry weather.  Dry air cools off quickly at night, so expect a few cool mornings to start the week, but another property of dry air is that it warms quickly with the help of sunshine, and with plenty of sun on tap, a string of mild afternoons will greet us Monday through Wednesday!  By Wednesday night, showers return to the forecast, and Thursday is likely to feature another round of showers and thunder during the afternoon, after a blend of sun and clouds warms temperatures to around 70!  Cooler and slightly more unsettled weather moves in by Friday, though, with more clouds than sun and slightly cooler temperatures, along with a few showers.  Enjoy the mild start to our week!  -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

For lovers of mild spring weather, patience of the past couple of weeks pays off this week.  A strengthening area of high pressure will crest over the Northeast as it shifts from a position over the Ohio Valley early Monday, to a position off the coast by midweek.  While this type of a setup won't bring a summer feel, it will bring plenty of sunshine and a relatively mild stretch of weather for most of New England.

Monday morning's sunshine comes courtesy of dry air extending deep into the atmosphere associated with the nearby high pressure center, and while an approaching upper level disturbance riding east out of the Great Lakes may bring a few very thin high-altitude cirrus clouds later Monday afternoon, most certainly the day will be remembered as a sunny one.  The combination of dry air, lots of sun, and a light west wind, will all help to push temperatures just over the 60 degree mark in most communities, though the light prevailing wind will allow for a sea breeze circulation to set up, keeping coastal towns a bit cooler.

After another dry, clear, calm and cool night across New England, our dry air will once again be ready to warm quickly on Tuesday.  With the center of high pressure gradually migrating from the Mid-Atlantic coast to a position east of New England, sea breezes are likely once again with light prevailing winds.  Opening day at Fenway Park should bring temperatures close to 60 by early afternoon, then a sea breeze is expected to kick in right around first-pitch, bringing temperatures down into the middle 50s by game's end, but sunshine will be plentiful.  Meanwhile, a storm taking shape across the Rockies early this week will sail into Canada, dragging its associated cold front east across the nation's midsection Tuesday into Wednesday, kicking winds up across New England Wednesday afternoon and eventually bringing increasing clouds with a period of rain showers to New England Wednesday night in advance of the cold front.

The actual front, however, is likely to be delayed in swinging through New England on Thursday, allowing temperatures to remain mild.  With the passage of the front Thursday afternoon, a round of showers and thunderstorms are likely, and behind this front a cooler and somewhat more unsettled airmass will move into New England.  The result will be a cooler day of clouds, some sun, and a few showers on Friday, with cooler temperatures and periodic showers likely sticking around into at least the first part of the weekend.

And how about the Boston Marathon?  Obviously it's still quite early, but the cooler airmass still looks to me as though it will be in place for Marathon Monday, holding temperatures below normal - probably not above the lower 50s - with a brisk northerly component to the wind.  At this point, northwest, north or northeast winds would all be possible, though the tendency - especially toward the finish line - would be for a northeast wind.  Sky conditions would likely feature billowing puffy cumulus clouds blotting out the sun from time to time, with a few sprinkles or light rain showers a possibility, but more so during the afternoon.  I'll keep you posted!

Enjoy your Monday!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Monday, April 10 at 1:00 PM

Quiet stretch of weather next 48 hours brings deep mixing in super-dry adiabatic lapse rate airmass which will allow for good adiabatic warming while diabatic effects also contribute to push dry airmass to above normal daytime maximums, tho chilly night mins will offset this in the daily mean temps.  Light synoptic wind flow allows sea breeze circulation to establish today.

Overnight Mon Ngt, clear skies and near calm winds with sfc ridge axis riding overhead between one anticyclonic center in Srn Quebec and the other over the Mid-Atlantic coast and this sets up favorable radiational cooling conditions.  Dewpoints likely to hang in the upper teens for deeper valleys across the North Country and low temps may meet these numbers while most areas land in the upper 20s and lower 30s as dewpoints rise slightly overnight to meet falling temps for areas of fog.

Similar day Tue as anticyclone organizes and strengthens while recentering northeast of its Tue AM position and winding up E of New Eng by day's end.  This isn't a flow to achieve the deep warmth we pondered in this discussion last week, but also isn't the backdoor setup that was a possibility given the 500 mb flow forecasted last week by some of the guidance.  Instead it's a light synoptic and pressure gradient wind that will once again allow for coastal sea breezes while overall atmospheric thermal structure warms gradually.

Just because pressure gradient force is weak in NewEng doesn't mean that's the case everywhere - expansive high pressure to be sharply marked by drop off in isobaric field and this will mean a strong PGF moving E ahead of approaching frontal boundary associated with strong upper and surface low located over Rockies as of this writing and that will be moving into Srn Canada.  Attendant front likely to have waves as it moves E across the nation and these waves will feed off available building warmth/moisture of SCentral US/Lower MS Valley and will help to deliver prefrontal band of showers and dying convection Wed Ngt.  Wind shift behind this trough but doesn't actually appear to be the cold front, which leaves NewEng in the warm air and with some downslope component Thu which will help us to warm up before incoming surface front backs boundary layer winds a bit, limiting downslope and allowing for afternoon convection.  There will, of course, be a significant dampening of available instability thanks to moderating effect of ocean even with a south wind, but thunder still looks likely esp for inland locales.

Trough digs in for the upcoming weekend and while there is still a good deal of spread among operational and ensemble members regarding how this situation all unfolds for the weekend, stakes look high for the Saturday forecast once again.  Those of you who read regularly and were reading last week know how high-stakes the Saturday forecast was for this past weekend - now it looks like we're jumping right back in!  The difficult part here is that we're dealing with a trough axis east of our longitude, but a strong shortwave diving into the Northeast on Sat that will beg for trough retrogression.  At this point, I do not think that retrogression will happen, but pressures lower on most guidance and the question is how quickly does this wave take off as it interacts with the upper low.  Meanwhile, there will be building warmth to our southwest, and this will feed into the appraoching northern stream shortwave with both warmth and moisture, though not as directly as this past Saturday's interaction.  Nonetheless, surface low track will be important and my early thinking is banded precip producing localized heavy precip for Northern/Central NewEng and more showery nature farther S, but given variability in track at several days out, all areas will run chance of rain for Sat.  Cool air likely to stick around thru Marathon Monday with a propensity certainly for a northerly wind and perhaps for a stubborn NE wind, but even so...by Monday I think we'll be drying out the boundary layer a bit even if we keep it cool.

Have a great Monday.

Matt

SUNGLASSES TO WORK, WINDSHIELD WIPERS HOME ON FRIDAY...TRICKY SATURDAY FORECAST WITH THREAT FOR RAIN...NICE SUNDAY IN STORE

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  Friday began with sunshine for many areas, but clouds will race into New England from the west and rain will overspread the region Friday afternoon.  These changes come as a wave of low pressure moves east through New England, bringing winds out of the south of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph at coasts and hilltops later Friday!  Embedded in this shield of rain will be evening downpours and perhaps even a thunderstorm in Western New England, then showers will linger through Friday night, and a quick shot of half an inch of rain is likely through Friday night, with amounts of greater than one inch of rain falling in heavier downpours across Northwestern New England.  Saturday's forecast is a very tricky one, as a cold front entering New England will play a pivotal role to the forecast.  If the front moves through quickly enough, showers will be held south of New England and most areas would stay dry.  My thinking as of this writing, however, is that the front will progress slowly, allowing rain to redevelop on Saturday from Hartford to Boston points southeast, with showers as far north as the Merrimack Valley, and a dry day with more clouds than sun farther north into Central and Northern New England.  You'll be able to monitor the radar scopes through the day and see how things are shaping up with the links to the right of this discussion, and through my homepage, www.mattnoyes.net.  Sunday looks fantastic for all of New England, and next week begins pleasant but with a cooling sea breeze through Wednesday.  Enjoy your weekend!  -Matt

Weather Summary and Technical Discussion still to come.

General Weather Summary: 

Enough dry air was in place across New England in conjunction with an area of high pressure southeast of Cape Cod early Friday morning for a sunny start in Southern New England and breaks of sun across parts of Northern New England, as well.  Clouds and rain continuing racing into New England from the southwest, however, and rain will continue to spread from west to east through Friday afternoon.  This advancing rain is associated with a piece of energy and moisture ejecting northeast from the Midwestern United States - a break-off from a stronger storm that brought another round of severe weather to the Midwest Thursday evening and night.

That Midwestern storm responsible for the violent weather Thursday night was originally a strong Pacific storm that brought thunderstorms earlier this week to the West Coast, and brought inches of rain and feet of snow to California.  These origins are always important when considering storms, because an origin often will speak to what type of airmass the storm carries with it, and in this case it's a moist Pacific airmass.  Additionally, the counterclockwise flow of air around this storm has tapped the Gulf of Mexico and pulled additional moisture and warmth northward.  The result is what you may expect from this combination of airmasses:  a moisture loaded system eager to produce plenty of rainfall.  So, as this first piece of the storm ejects over New England on Friday, some of the rain showers will converge into a steady rain for a time Friday afternoon in Southern New England, and embedded downpours with possible thunder will move into the Northwestern quarter of our six-state region by Friday evening.  Rain will taper to lingering showers Friday night and winds will shift to the northwest while dying down, but areas of dense fog will make travel tough in some communities through the wee hours of Saturday morning across Southern New England.

At the same time pieces of this Midwestern storm break off toward the East Coast, a strong upper level storm over Southern Canada will begin diving in our direction, as well.  When the energy from this upper level storm, and the surface cold front it's driving southward, meets the moisture and energy combo of the storm over the Heartland, inches upon inches of rain will crank out wherever the most interaction of the two systems occurs.  This sets up a high-stakes forecast for Saturday in New England, as the speed of the northern disturbance and cold front will hold the key as to whether the heavy rains crank out over Southern New England, or over the Coastal Waters and Long Island, south of New England.  At this point, it appears to me as though the cold front will be sluggish enough to allow for rain showers and even a period of steady rain to redevelop...especially from Boston to Hartford points south and east later Saturday morning, with showers possibly reaching as far north as the Merrimack Valley with dry conditions expected farther north and west under a blend of more clouds than sun with mountain flurries.  The farther south one travels in New England, the better the chance of seeing the heavier bands of rain that would linger through the afternoon, though rainfall amounts of a few inches should stay south of the region.  While I'm thinking these showers and periods of rain will redevelop through the Southern areas mentioned above, I'd also be the first to let you know that if this cold front diving south out of Canada comes through cleaner than I anticipate, Saturday would be a dry day for all of New England.  With this information, you can be sure to follow the radar imagery through the day with the links to the right of this discussion, and through my main homepage at www.mattnoyes.net.

Regardless, this cold front pushes farther south late Saturday and Saturday night, ushering in the drier air that will bring clearing skies on Sunday as high pressure builds in and forces the moisture southward.  A cool shot of air on Sunday will be offset by sunshine and winds sloping down off of the mountains and hills of Northern New England - which often has a warming effect on the airmass for Central and Southern New England.

If you're looking for a warm-up, keep your chin up and start looking forward to next week!  Deep warmth will steadily build into New England after a decent day on Monday, and you'll really feel the warmth coming in by midweek as a Bermuda High Pressure establishes and strengthens off the East Coast.  There are a few things we'll keep an eye on, however, as this area of high pressure may strengthen over New England before settling south of us, and this means we need to remain on guard for a penetrating sea breeze or even a somewhat deeper cooling northeast flow of air through the first half of the week.  By midweek onward, however, the result of high pressure building south and southeast of us will be a warming southwest wind, though our warmest temperatures through most of New England actually would likely wait until late week when our winds will turn from the west, rather than the southwest, sloping down off the hills of Western New England and favoring warming.  Don't be surprised to see temperatures into the 70s by that point!

Some of you are, naturally, wondering what kind of weather lay ahead for some big events, like Fenway's home opener for the Red Sox and the Boston Marathon.  Based on what I've laid out above, the home opener at Fenway looks terrific as we enter our mild stretch of weather.  The Boston Marathon, on the other hand, is a closer call - not necessarily because it's so far away (though that does add uncertainty to the forecast) but more because there's going to be a strong cold front moving through New England later Sunday or Sunday night, and that will be snapping our mild stretch.  The result would be showers and thunderstorms along the front, though at this point it does appear as though the front will clear New England by Monday, meaning colder air will have moved in, but drying conditions will probably be moving in, as well.  Keep in mind that we're talking about the exact timing of a cold front that's still 11 days away, however, so this is my best estimate at this point.  The result for Marathon Monday would be temperatures near normal (upper 50s) with sunshine and billowing clouds that may drop a few sprinkles or light showers, and an active northwest wind at 10-20 mph.  Given the length of time until the day of the marathon, however, keep in mind that this is simply an early projection...I'll keep you posted here if anything changes!

Have a wonderful weekend!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Friday, April 7 at 10:15 AM

A very difficult Saturday forecast for this meteorologist who continues to see indications of reasons to be wary for Southern New England's forecast even though it bucks the solution most operational model QPF would suggest.

Let's take it one step at a time.  Clouds lower and thicken across NewEng Fri with rain showers beginning midday west and racing east thru afternoon so that most of NewEng is raining for the PM commute.  Very active low level jet with over 75 kts at 850 mb screaming across NewEng helping to usher extremely strong warm and moist advection our way, and this is responsible for the widespread rains in addition to the cyclonic vorticity advection associated with the breakaway vort from last night's Midwestern thunderstorms.  The plot, of course, thickens as we've known it would when the northern stream Canadian upper low and its attendant surface cold front come into play.

Good agreement on hardly more than .50" QPF in the wettest New England towns today, tho I question these numbers and would think either side of .50" will be common, and amounts greater than 1" should be found in VT where isentropic lift is maximized and dynamic forcing teams up with increasing baroclinicity to really send upward vertical motion sailing.  Downpours and embedded thunder even possible at this intersection of favorable parameters later this evening, and that holds even though convective indices are low, since shallow cooler surface dome should be offset by elevated instability.

Break between vort maximums allows rain to taper to showers overnight and low level winds shift to northwest with passage of surface front and this commences low level cold and dry advection.  My concerns linger from this discussion posted Wed and reposted yesterday which is that this is not a clean sweep, as both the 700 and 500 mb fronts linger across Southern NewEng.  Height falls slow to a crawl and guidance is putting out plenty of 500 and 700 mb moisture along with strong 500 mb vertical velocity as of 00Z runs.  Additionally, Canadian Ensembles have come way north and way wetter with the QPF axis - putting it over Southern NewEng - and the operational Canadian has come farther north as well.  Given all the signals we've looked at, the amount of moisture and warmth trying to fight what is an equally impressive shot of cold, setting up strengthening baroclinicity, and a sluggish front aloft, I have to believe the rain will fill back in Sat AM from BOS to HFD points SE, with showers possibly sneaking as far north as the Merrimack Valley and dry farther north with ample 850 mb moisture for stratocumulus to outnumber breaks of sunshine, and mountain flurries in orographically favored areas given upslope northwest flow.  I'm aware that Southern NewEng will be seeing a resultant downslope flow, but what I'm concerned with is middle and upper level, not lower level, and all I need now is a continuation of the trend seen (FINALLY!) in the Canadian members overnight to continue...but obviously I'm willing to carry this forecast with or without model support because I believe in the dynamics aloft, and remember that rainfall amounts under the axis of heaviest QPF will be measured in inches, though even in my outlier solution, and even in extreme Southern NewEng under this solution, I wouldn't expect much more than an inch of rain to fall, but regardless of the amount, it's obviously a huge sensible weather difference from what guidance continues to paint.

All of this being said, responsible forecasting is necessary, and while I've been expressing this is my favored solution in my broadcasts, I've also had no problem being quite honest that the front may come through cleaner than I'm expecting which would result in a nicer day.  Regardless, it should be a slow process to clearing - what was previously a sharp front is now beginning to show some anafrontal precip over Southern Canada already and this should be watched - and Sunday will be the noticeably better of the weekend days.

Speaking of Sunday, not many changes to the forecast.  Into next week, the propensity for backdoor fronts we've been acknowledging together in these discussions for this time period over the past month or so will need to be watched very carefully.  Height rises try desperately to push into NewEng, but indications of a lingering upper low and weak troffing northeast of NewEng are showing up and this will help to dive shortwaves southward E of NewEng, setting up confluent flow nearby and possibly setting up a building high directly over or very near NewEng before shifting into its Bermuda High position.  This would introduce the possibility of a backdoor later Monday or early Tuesday, and I've actually gone with cooler max temps Tue than Mon as a result.  At this point, it remains to be seen how strong this push of cool northeast or east flow would be and how far inland it would penetrate, but given the fact that we've been watching this very time period together for so long, and that indications like this are coming back, we'll carry the torch for now.

Enjoy your weekend!

Matt