FRIDAY DOWNPOURS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...DECENT WEEKEND OVERALL...THREAT FOR INCREASING WINDS LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY RAISES CURIOSITY OF DOWNED TREE POTENTIAL
Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is email@example.com. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
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Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:
As flood waters recede, New Englanders assess damage to their homes, some of which will be unliveable for quite awhile, if at all. As a New Englander, I know this is the time we band together to help one another - it has been the New England way of life to assist one another in times of need...especially when inflicted by New England weather...for centuries, and so many of you generously have offered to help those in need during trying times. Business owners or individuals offering free and discounted services, as indicated in the forecast above, please email firstname.lastname@example.org while those of you looking for services can access the link found in the forecast to see all of the offers.
After a couple of days reprieve, a tropical connection has returned to New England to begin our Friday. An upper level disturbance riding north over New England will remain progressive, however, which mean the very heavy downpours and thunder that result in morning street and small stream flooding in Southern New England will be on the move into Northern New England for Friday afternoon, leaving a few breaks of late day sunshine behind across Southern areas. These Northern downpours will continue into Friday night, while Southern New England sees only a few lingering showers. Saturday will bring billowing clouds mixed with sunshine, and the sky may in fact turn mostly cloudy by day's end. Nonetheless, I wouldn't expect these clouds to build much higher than enough to cause a few afternoon sprinkles in Southern New England, though Northern, Central and Western New England will find scattered light rain showers during the afternoon. By Sunday, another strong disturbance will move through New England, bringing rapidly thickening clouds with windswept showers and downpours developing, and an increasing wind ushering in cooler air and raising concern for a few downed trees, should those winds blow hard enough. Breezes remain active on Monday with a shot of cooler and drier air, and this should produce another pleasant day on Tuesday, with warmth building into New England by the end of the week and heading into the start of the Memorial Day weekend.. -Matt
Notes on Flooding: As flood-stricken areas continue to inspect damage done to homes and businesses from the greatest flooding since the Great Floods of 1936 in the Merrimack Valley and other parts of Southern NH and Southern ME, we as a community are reaching out to help. It's important to keep the magnitude of this flood event in perspective - though for some businesses and individuals this will be a headache requiring drying out and cleaning up, for others it is the heartbreaking permanent loss of their home or business, and thousands of individuals, families and business owners will need continued support over the coming weeks - not just in these few days as the flooding recedes.
For those of you interested in what caused the event from a weather perspective, I encourage you to look back through the archived posts here, which laid out the factors setting this up, along with maps posted at the end of last week outlining why so much moisture would come streaming into New England. Many have asked me how much snow would have fallen if this had come as snow, instead, and the first answer is the more boring but truthful answer: It couldn't have. This amount of tropical moisture simply isn't able to transport this far north through a cold dome of air. The exceptions to these rules are found only in higher terrain along or near oceans, like the higher terrain of Northern California, where the mountains enhance precipitation rates. Nonetheless, using an average water to snow ratio of 1:13, this would have yielded a storm total of between 78 and 208 inches of snow, dependent upon location - in other words, between 6.5 and 17 feet!
Now onto the weather: Fast-moving but torrential downpours and thunderstorms will continue to race northward through Southern New England in what has thankfully become a progressive weather pattern, which means storms that do move through New England will keep moving - a thankful change in the pattern. A new upper level storm barrelling into the Northeast has helped to focus this tap of tropical moisture once again into our six-state region, but unlike the last time around, this intense upper level energy will remain on the move As the disturbance chugs northeast, caught in the jet stream winds aloft, it's carrying a cool front at the surface, which is helping to focus the showers, downpours and thunderstorms. After depositing a solid inch of rain in many Southern New England communities, the rain shield will stall across Northern New England, where some of us in Central and Northern VT and Northern NH will pick up in excess of two inches of rainfall later Friday through Friday night. The fast rate of rainfall associated with this round of rain will allow for some renewed urban, street and small stream flooding, so a few new road washouts are possible, especially in Northern New England by Friday night, but also will aggravate flooding in Southern New England in low-lying areas where water continues to pool, and for flooding along ponds and lakes.
As the upper level storm continues moving east during the day Friday, it will drag in a swath of drier air behind it which will bring a transition from morning showers and lingering downpours to breaks of afternoon sunshine in Southern and Central New England, especially later in the day. Residents of the North Country should expect continuing rainfall through most of the day and parts of Northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will see the rain last into Friday night.
By Saturday, most of New England will find a break in the action, though a "trough", or dip, in the jet stream winds will still favor the progression of disturbances into the Northeast. Nonetheless, a pleasant blend of sunshine and puffy cumulus clouds is what I'm expecting for Saturday, with some of these clouds building high enough in the mountains and hills of Northern and Western New England for a few light rain showers, but a mainly dry day elsewhere. By Sunday, a strong upper level disturbance will dive southeast out of Canada into the jet stream trough, and this will generate new clouds and showers with embedded downpours scattered around New England on Sunday. This disturbance will carry a strong cold front at the surface, and the showers, downpours and possible thunder along and ahead of the front on Sunday will usher in cooler air during the afternoon on a strengthening wind. We'll want to keep a close eye on this, because if the winds strengthen enough Sunday afternoon, saturated ground will make it easy for trees to uproot, and this wind forecast is one that I'll be watching carefully.
Behind the passing front, a shot of cool air will pour into New England and send temperatures below normal on Monday, though the cool air will also be dry enough for a blend of sun and clouds. That cool shot of air will be replaced over the course of the week by increasing warmth which should lead us into a bit of a summer feel leading into the Memorial Day weekend.
Have a great day.