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AS DEEP SUMMER WARMTH RETURNS, ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE-LOADS IN WHAT MAY BE AN EARLY WEEKEND DUMPING OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS...

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary: 

Reminder:  We continue to run the Help Your Neighbor Flood Help webpage.  If you have a free or discounted service to offer flood victims, email web@necn.com with the offer and we will add it to the collection at the Flood Help site: http://necn.wordpress.com.

The deep summer warmth and humidity is returning to New England thousands of feet above our heads Wednesday morning, and will continue to make its push northeast through the day.  At the surface, the transition isn't quite so simple, however, as a cool and somewhat less humid airmass lingers in Eastern New England, and the clash of airmasses resulted in plenty of low altitude clouds and areas of dense fog Wednesday morning.  With winds gradually turning to blow from the south - but still out of the southeast along our coastlines - not only will warmer and more humid air be causing this collision of airmasses, but winds will still be blowing in off the cool ocean waters.  The result should be for stubborn clouds amidst breaks of sunshine on places like Cape Cod and the coast of Maine, and cool temperatures reaching only the 60s in both of these locales, though fog will continue to slowly lift.  Along the remainder of New England's coastlines, this slight ocean component will keep the sun hidden a bit longer than inland locales, but sun should certainly still emerge with temperatures in the 70s, and where ocean influence is less pervasive through the interior, we'll warm into the 80s.  In fact, enough warmth is in place across Northwestern New England that the Champlain Valley should exceed 90 degrees Wednesday afternoon!  In these warmer areas of Northwestern New England, however - from Vermont into Northwestern New Hampshire - the abundance of warmth and humidity will make the atmosphere ripe for showers and thunderstorms to develop with an upper level disturbance passing through Wednesday afternoon and evening.

That same upper level disturbance will set into motion a cold front at ground level, sagging the front southward out of Canada overnight Wednesday night to keep scattered showers and thunder going in Northern New England.  Elsewhere, a fairly quiet albeit mild and muggy night is expected with a few areas of fog possible in valleys of Central and Southern New England.

The southward sagging cold front will mark the leading edge to cooler air locked over Canada, and this new air will drain southward across the Canadian border on Thursday, though most of the remainder of New England will find deep summer warmth in place, with temperatures climbing well into the 80s and a few spots perhaps even exceeding 90 degrees!  With the aforementioned cool front draped across New England, however, it won't take much to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms, and a weak wave of low pressure developing along this front across New York State will be just the type of mechanism needed to focus those thunderstorms.  Some Thursday afternoon storms are likely to pack a punch with regard to heavy rains, frequent lightning and localized damaging wind gusts.  Overnight Thursday night this cold front will slow over Southern New England, keeping scattered showers in the forecast.

Bigger problems may be in the offing for Friday and Saturday, however, as signs are strong that this cold front will slow to a crawl as attempts to move south of New England Friday into Saturday.  The reason this is a potential problem is because a new wave of low pressure will be moving northeast out of the Tennessee Valley, packed with Gulf of Mexico moisture and loaded with the warm and humid summer air that's been entrenched over the Eastern U.S. the past several days.  We'll add to this a surface and low level flow out of the Bahamas, and that means a tremendous amount of available moisture.  Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold front will be slowing, but cool air will be moving into Northern New England behind it, and this setup of tropical air, deep moisture, and cool air all colliding is a recipe for heavy rainfall.  In fact, those of you who follow this blog know that this is a similar setup at the surface to what we saw leading into the major flooding of two weeks ago.  Having said that, the upper level pattern is quite different this time around - and quite more progressive.  Therefore, heavy bands of rain are not expected to linger nearly as long, less moisture will be available aloft, and we're not looking at a foot and a half of rain.  But even a shot of 3"-6", which is a possibility, would cause renewed flooding concerns, so I'm going to be watching this system very carefully.  If we can get the cold front to stall just a bit farther offshore, the heaviest rainfall would come down across the waters south of New England instead, so that would be a possible but at this point not very likely saving grace.

As for your weekend, I wouldn't get excited for any rapid clearing behind this rain-maker, but there is certainly some hope to salvage part of Sunday, in particular.  After periods of rain linger on Saturday, we should swing winds around from the northwest behind the departing storm and its counter-clockwise circulation, which would favor some drying on Sunday.  Still, with moisture wrapping around the back of the storm, at least some showers across New England - and especially Northern and Eastern areas - would be likely.

-Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Wednesday, May 31 at 1:05 PM

I'll skip a rehashing of yesterday's discussion to set the scene and just build upon it, so if you missed yesterday's feel free to look back through the archives/recent posts that can be accessed through the sidebar.

Break in the action today comes courtesy of NVA induced subsidence inversion aided by noctural inversion invoked by cool and dry low level airmass.  Nontheless, this inversion has mixed out thanks to strong diurnal effects through most locales, tho an onshore component to the surface wind has made the inversion slow to break at south-facing coastal locales and as a result the boundary layer moisture and low clouds have been slow to break up and burn off.  I expect this sluggishness to last into afternoon as the onshore component remains in place, with the strongest effects in SE CT and the coast of ME.  Elsewhere, atmosphere will continue to mix and after overnight and continuing warm advection aloft this means we're mixing deep summer warmth back into the boundary layer and temps will continue to respond.  Tropical air still in place Champlain Valley and Northern VT...heading for Upper Valley...and these locales will find warmest max temps, highest dewpoints, and this combo will breed sfc based CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg and LIs to -6.  This instability, combined with falling heights in advance of the next shortwave which will still be across Southern Ontario but will be the impetus for convective development in Vermont thru the Upper Valley of VT/NH this afternoon and eve.

Overnight as the sfc cold front sags south, showers and thunder are likely to sag south and expand E into Maine.  This will be aided by warm and moist advection continuing in the low levels and at the surface, which may allow for fog in valleys but wind should stay up enough to prevent fog in exposed locales.  Nonetheless, the onslaught of warmth and moisture overnight ahead of the vort lobe riding ahead of the main shortwave and a resultant prefrontal surface trough will be enough to maintain and in fact likely strengthen convective activity over NY and running into VT and Nrn NH before weakening while expanding E into ME.

Thu will be an active convective day across NewEng thanks to the combo of falling heights, cyclonic vorticity advection and plentiful tropical moisture.  After a thermal profile that would support widespread temps nearing 90 in its 00Z run, the 12Z NAM has backed off given increased convection and given the combo of falling heights and a nearby cold front that will feed thunderstorms.  The truth likely lay in the middle and that's the road I'll take.  As for the convection, I think CAPE will actually be higher than the 1000-1500 J/kg forecasted by guidance because cloud cover is likely to be less than progged at least until early afternoon, and even between convection heating should continue thru the afternoon.  This will raise the potential for damaging downburst winds but winds are relatively light under the low level trof which doesn't lend any support beyond the convective available potential energy, and with precipitable water values approaching 2" I actually would have to think that relatively slow moving storms featuring torrential rains capable of localized flash flooding and plentiful cloud to ground strikes would be the more widespread concern.

I have significant concerns for rainfall totals from Thu thru Sun across Central and Southern NewEng, and though there is still uncertainty that exists with regard to placement and intensity of heaviest bands of precip, I'm not encouraged by what I'm seeing - that is, conditions do appear favorable for several inches of rain in Central and especially Southern NewEng.  Flash flood guidance is 3-4" in 24 hours and given the available amount of moisture thanks to a tap from the Gulf of Mexico, a surface flow from the Bahamas, and a trof that begins positively tilted but goes neutral toward negative on Saturday, I think we have bands of rain that begin as thunderstorms Thu, then fluctuate in intensity but become focused heavy rain bands with multiple waves along the slowing frontal boundary Fri and Sat and with cool air that means business heading south from Canada behind the front we not only have great surface convergence but also some differential advection which is always great for persistent heavy rain bands.  3"-6" seems like a safe forecast right now though that may have to be upped when taking Thu storm production into account.  While this is far shy of the event two weeks ago, it's still a significant slug of rain that will raise flooding concerns.  We will delve deeper into this tomorrow, as data becomes more readily available, the atmospheric structure better progged, and I have more time to expand.

Matt


SPRING SWINGS OF COASTAL COOL AND SUMMER FLINGS!

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary: 

Reminder:  We continue to run the Help Your Neighbor Flood Help webpage.  If you have a free or discounted service to offer flood victims, email web@necn.com with the offer and we will add it to the collection at the Flood Help site: http://necn.wordpress.com.

1:40 PM Update:  Thunderstorms will be spreading into New England shortly and will have the potential to grow strong enough to support damaging wind gusts along with torrential rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning in Vermont, Western MA, and perhaps Western CT by evening.  Monitor for warnings using the link under Current Conditions & Advisories to the left of this discussion, and follow storms on radar using links to the right.

Previous Discussion:

The Tuesday morning surface analysis features a southeast drifting area of high pressure over Eastern Canada, muscling its way into warm and somewhat humid summer air that was in place over New England.  The result will be a dramatic change of air for some of New England Tuesday and Wednesday, before summer warmth battles back.

Marking the leading edge to cooler and less humid air is a wind shift, bringing northeast winds behind the shift and ushering in the new, cooler Canadian airmass.  This wind shift and airmass change is referred to as a "backdoor cold front" thanks to the direction it comes from - while most fronts move into New England from the west or northwest, these coming in from the northeast and east as the clockwise flow of air around a southward sagging area of high pressure launches the cooler air southward and turns winds in off the Atlantic Ocean, which also is chock full of cool waters this time of the year.  The result will be a twenty degree difference between Memorial Day and Tuesday's high temperatures in seaside communities, though just a few miles inland the ocean influence decreases markedly but noticeably less humid and refreshing air is in place, and farther inland through Western New England temperatures will once again push into the 80s with humid conditions still in place.  The combination of the lingering heat, humidity, and wind shift associated with the backdoor cool front will lead to the development of Tuesday afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the Western half of New England.  Any of these storms will have the potential for torrential rain, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and localized damaging wind bursts.  Elsewhere in New England, varying amounts of cloud clover will drop isolated showers from time to time, and a band of scattered showers may establish over Western Maine and Northern New Hampshire, but the intensity will be far less than what will be seen over Western areas.

By Tuesday night, winds aloft turn back out of the southwest as a slowly approaching storm center from the Great Lakes exerts its influence, pumping increasing warmth and humidity back into the Northeast.  Thanks to a persistent cooler surface flow, this warmth and moisture comes surging in aloft first, and that means continued areas of showers and thunderstorms through the overnight moving gradually east from the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont to Northern New Hampshire, then Western and Central Maine.  Farther south, expect areas of fog with just a few showers where they detach from the heavier activity across the North Country.

Though this warmth will be back in place thousands of feet above our heads on Wednesday, at the surface it will be a slower process to bring the deep summer warmth back in.  In the transition of airmasses, Northern New England will remain mostly cloudy and another round of showers and thunder is likely for some Northern areas Wednesday afternoon, while most of Central and Southern New England will remain dry until the next disturbance rides through Wednesday night with a round of showers and thunder.

A deeper southwest flow is expected to re-establish on Thursday, and this will pump the full-fledged summer warmth back into New England, with another round of late-day showers and thunder as the next in what will be a series of upper level disturbances rides out of the Great Lakes, rounds the top of a ridge of high pressure and sails through Southern Canada, then drops southward across New England.  This overall pattern changes by Friday, as the ridge of high pressure forcing each disturbance into Southern Canada before they enter New England begins to break down in advance of a strong upper level disturbance moving east through the Great Lakes.  This disturbance will tap the Gulf of Mexico for ample moisture as it pulls east, dragging a cold front that will help to focus some of this moisture in the form of heavy rain and thunderstorms.  This rain and thunder is likely to move into New England during the day Friday, and a wave of low pressure appears as though it may develop along the frontal boundary.  What this means for us is that we'll need to be on-guard for focused heavy rainfall in parts of New England, and that the cold front trying to clear this moisture out of New England will likely slow enough to leave rain lingering into Saturday morning before improving conditions move in.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Tuesday, May 30 at 1:40 PM

A befuddling weather pattern across NewEng today will continue to test the fabric of meteorologists for several days to come.  The distinctly New England combo of deep summer warmth and humidity, a backdoor cool front, northern stream energy and ocean influence have all come together to introduce dueling components with the challenges focused on which parameters to give the most credence to, and when.

While the forecast for eastern NewEng is far from what I'd expected when last we left off on Friday morning thanks to the backdoor front, deep summer warmth certainly is still present in NewEng and is found across Western NewEng where temps will continue climbing well into the 80s and theta-e values are tropical in nature west of the Green Mountains and in Western MA/CT.  This well of warmth and humidity will help to boost sfc based CAPE values to between 1500 & 3000 J/kg Tue afternoon with LIs to -3/-4.  Meanwhile, as is often the case in a situation like this, one of the greatest threats will exist where wind shift assoc with backdoor front intersects with instability powderkeg, as helicity values are jacked up along the wind shift with easterly surface component and this will support embedded supercells.  Not impossible to find a tornadic supercell in this regime, so those in Vermont should keep a close eye on this potential.  Not a high threat in most areas but esp Champlain Valley and Western third of VT need to remain on guard.

Warm and moist advection begins even at 850 mb overnight and this forces summer air back into the backdoor boundary, turning it around as a warm front.  As a shortwave embedded in the midlevel flow dives southeast over NewEng, the dynamic forcing will team with widespread isentropic lift and elevated instability, along with 850 mb speed convergence, to keep thunderstorms going and even create a weak and poorly organized MCS from the Northeast Kingdom of VT thru the Northern Whites and into the Mountains of ME overnight, which may spread farther south into parts of Central/Southern ME by dawn.  Elsewhere, showers that try to break away from the main convective areas should die a quick death as they encounter stability due to cool low level airmass and lesser advection aloft.

I expect a break in the action for most of Wed for most areas as slow moving vort max moves E off the coast leaving NVA in its wake, tho with cool shallow sfc dome less than eager to pull out, clouds are likely to linger from Nrn VT/NH early, then mostly cloudy conditions shift E to Nrn NH/Central ME during the afternoon.  Elsewhere, deeper warmth begins a gradual return as it modifies rather than forces out the cool dome.  By Wed Eve, next strung out vort max - actually a pre-frontal feature to the main shortwave digging from Canada thru the Great Lakes - will bring convection back into NW NewEng as it induces height falls ahead of it and will tug the pesky frontal boundary south across NewEng later Wed Ngt.

Strengthening southwest flow, however, will be quick to turn this boundary around on Thu as deep summer warmth continues its return to at least Central and Southern NewEng - with the North Country a tougher sell, especially along the Canadian border which may remain just north of this cold front (today) turned warm front (Wed) turned cold front (Wed Ngt) turned warm front (Thu).  But a transition like this would be incomplete if we couldn't transition this thing back to a cold front once more for posterity, and we'll do that Thu eve as it settles slowly southward, sparking convection along the way.  This boundary becomes important by Friday as the main shortwave digs into the Great Lakes and a second shortwave rounds the base of the trough pivoting thru the Ohio Valley.  The combination of these two vort maxes induces sfc wave development along the front and this does set up a problem for us later Fri as it's another confluence of many favorable QPF parameters.  This harkens back to the major flooding event of two weeks ago for a brief moment when one examines the surface flow, but upper level flow is quite different as you'll remember the upper flow with that event was southeast thru all levels with a monster ridge pinched off east of NewEng that brought 75 and sunny to Maine and 80s to Eastern Canada, while this time around the flow is much more progressive.  Nonetheless, the incoming shortwave will be working with Gulf moisture while the Western Atlantic anticyclone primes the atmosphere with a gradual feed of Tropical Atlantic moisture.  The good news is that the somewhat more progressive nature of the system will keep a rather even distribution of moisture as opposed to a stalling band of heavy rain like seen two weeks ago.  The down side is that the amount of available moisture is significant and this will crank out at least a few inches of rain and perhaps a band of greater than that across Central/Southern NewEng - areas that have dried out but still are certainly rain-weary.  I would encourage meteorologists to be somewhat gunshy on promising clearing at any hard and fast point in the weekend right now, as there's going to be wraparound precip with this thing later Sat and Sun even tho the main rain shield will have moved thru most of NewEng by Sat AM and thru ME by later Sat.

We'll look farther out both temporally and spatially (into the tropics) as the week progresses.

Matt

Continue reading "SPRING SWINGS OF COASTAL COOL AND SUMMER FLINGS!" »


WEEKEND WARMTH WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary: 

Reminder:  We continue to run the Help Your Neighbor Flood Help webpage.  If you have a free or discounted service to offer flood victims, email web@necn.com with the offer and we will add it to the collection at the Flood Help site: http://necn.wordpress.com.

We continue our jump into summer across New England as we cruise into the weekend, en route to an appropriately summer-like Memorial Day weekend to unofficially kick off our New England summer season!  The jet stream pattern - the fast river of air aloft in the atmosphere that steers our storm systems and acts as a thermostat for the atmosphere, separating cold to the north from warm air to the south - continues to shift from a pattern that featured a cool trough (dip) over the Northeast, to a warmer ridge (bump).  This will put New England squarely on the warm side of the thermostat for the holiday weekend.

The transition to a summer airmass is already underway across New England, as was evidenced by light early morning rain showers associated with a surge of warmth and moisture aloft, and evidenced by stubborn low altitude clouds and fog along the South Coast for the first several hours of Friday.  Elsewhere, the sun was able to warm the atmosphere quickly enough to avoid widespread cloud cover early Friday, though an increase in available moisture through the lower levels will allow for more clouds to bubble up region-wide Friday afternoon.  Still, sunshine this time of the year is effective (remember that we're less than a month from the summer solstice - the strongest sun angle of the year) and what we see of it will boost temperatures into the 80s for Northern, Central and interior Southern New England!  Within several miles of south-facing coastlines, however, temperatures will be held cooler due to the additional cloud cover and the cooling effect of the ocean waters.

Farther west, the disturbance we've been watching all week since it came ashore over Southern California on Monday continues to slowly track eastward across the Great Lakes and into New York State.  This system has a long history of producing severe weather, and continued to produce a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak requiring several tornado watches in the Ohio Valley on Thursday.  The focus today will be primarily through Upstate NY southward to the Mid-Atlantic, though by mid to late afternoon Friday, showers and thunderstorms will spread into Western New England and given how warm it will be, and the increasing moisture through the atmosphere, thunderstorms will have the potential to grow strong, dropping locally torrential rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning.  Localized bursts of damaging winds are also possible in some of the heavier thunderstorms in especially Western New England.

While the showers and storms will have spread into Western New England by late afternoon, Eastern areas are likely to stay mainly dry until Friday evening, when scattered thunderstorms advance eastward and periods of rain and thunder will fall for most of New England Friday night, with the heaviest amounts nearing an inch across parts of Northern New England, and perhaps a secondary maximum near the South Coast due to two separate and opposing frontal boundaries - one is the cold front we've been watching this week, settling south into New England from Canada, and the other is a surge of warmth and moisture from the south, responsible for the south coastal fog and low clouds earlier on Friday.

With the energetic disturbance moving across New England not likely to pass through completely until during the day on Saturday, lingering clouds that break for sunshine Saturday morning are likely to yield to new scattered showers and thunderstorms along the lingering surface cold front, which will be draped over Southern New England Saturday.  These showers and storms would be most likely from 11 AM onward - and most widespread during the afternoon - occurring from Hartford, CT, to Portsmouth, NH, points southeast.  Where the most showers roll through, temperatures will be held in the middle 70s while other areas rebound closer to 80.  Given a light wind flow, coastal locales may actually be able to warm into the 70s, as well, before feeble sea breeze circulations establish later in the day.

The summer warmth that's been building from the Southwestern U.S. through the nation's midsection and even northward into Central Canada will be on the move and destined to move into New England as the holiday weekend wears on.  By Sunday, this warm and increasingly dry air will yield a gorgeous blend of sun and clouds, and with the surface wind direction pointing out of the northeast and east - off the ocean - coastal communities will remain pleasantly cooler while interior locales climb to either side of 80 degrees, where a lesser but still evident ocean influence will be present.

By Memorial Day Monday, all signs point to a strengthening southwest wind, which is a warm wind direction for almost all of New England, except, of course, south-facing shorelines.  With enough dry air in place for nearly full sunshine, the combination of sunshine and warm air should have no problem boosting temperatures well into the 80s - even at the coastline - with some spots hitting and exceeding 90!  This deep summer warmth will last through midweek, and even after the passage of a cold front that's likely to bring a round of strong thunderstorms by Thursday, a warmer-than-normal pattern is likely to continue through the first half of June!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Friday, May 26 at 1:30 PM

I suppose to forecast strictly by the models we'd have to ammend the forecast for a dry evening in the Boston metrowest area as 12Z NAM has stripe of 0 precip along and just north of the Massachusetts Turnpike.  Tough to believe given bands of convection - some severe - propogating northeast toward NewEng and I will leave the going forecast alone for convection to advance northeast.  I expect an onshore flow so stable that fog and low clouds linger at the immediate South Coast to inhibit surface-based convective potential in most of CT/RI but interesting to note the CAPE gradient that sets up from NW CT to Central MA and BOS area this afternoon and eve.  Oftentimes I've seen strong thunderstorms develop on CAPE gradients like these, so would think from this gradient north and west into the increasingly unstable heated airmass we'll be looking at plenty of convection with localized damaging gusts remaining possible and most widespread threat being torrential downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Though intensity of convection should diminish after dark, periods of showers, downpours and thunder continue thru the overnight with max QPF being found along southward sagging cold front of the North Country and with continued warm/moist advection and assoc upglide in far Southern NewEng.  Perhaps a few lingering showers early Sat but I think a break in the action.

As for later Sat, frontal boundary still lingers over Southern NewEng and with moist and unstable airmass in place and vort max moving overhead, expect convection to re-energize Sat late AM into the afternoon esp from HFD to PSM points SE while drying moves in farther N and W.  That drying trend continues behind shortwave late Sat and Sat ngt with Sun, Mon and Tue all looking plenty dry mid and upper levels.  Sun still looks like an onshore flow which means coolest coast, of course, tho warm enuf airmass that while ocean will be mitigating effect farther inland, it won't seem like it to the general public as highs settle either side of 80.  The difference will become more evident when we swing to a land breeze and maximize the potential of our warm airmass Memorial Day and Tue.  One of these days very well may hold a NewEng avg high temp over 90, but that would require limited mid and upper level clouds along with a downsloping flow (even a weak one).  I think we can get downsloping but we also may have some degree of midlevel clouds with a northwest flow aloft - at least in the Northeastern half of NewEng.  This really is a moot point, however, as many areas will surpass 90 on both Mon and Tue regardless.

Continued warm string lasts into cold frontal passage on Thu which will have tropical tap and is likely to bring intense convection and heavy rainfall amounts tho perhaps heaviest to our West Thu with our fropa holding off until Fri.  This will be next week's fun.

Enjoy the holiday.  I'm back on Tuesday.

Matt


TRANSITION TO SUMMER AIR UNDERWAY...MEMORIAL DAY BRINGS SUMMER ON FULL-TILT

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary: 

Reminder:  We continue to run the Help Your Neighbor Flood Help webpage.  If you have a free or discounted service to offer flood victims, email web@necn.com with the offer and we will add it to the collection at the Flood Help site: http://necn.wordpress.com.

A change has begun in the weather pattern today, and our high and middle altitude clouds are an indicator of warmer air moving in aloft.  The trough, or dip, in the jet stream winds aloft that has left New England cool and at times unsettled over the past several days has begun to lift out, though quite begrudgingly.  Nonetheless, temperatures will climb nicely Thursday - an an indicator of what's to come!  A combination of sunshine through clouds and an increasing southwest wind will push temperatures well above normal for the date (by about 10 degrees) and a break between one stubborn storm finally departing to our east and another gradually moving out of the Upper Great Lakes will mean dry weather regionwide.

The disturbance waiting "upstream" over the Great Lakes - meaning it's located where the winds are blowing from and where our storms will come from - is intense, and will usher in new energy by later Friday through Friday night.  So Thursday truly is a transition day, and ahead of the approaching disturbance, the counter-clockwise flow of air around the system will help to usher warmer and more moist air into New England at all levels of the atmosphere.  As is often the case with increasing warmth and humidity, plenty of clouds will grace the skies of New England on Thursday, though I expect them to be thin enough to allow for plenty of dim and milky sunshine that - combined with a developing then strengthening south and southwest wind - will help to boost temperatures into the 70s.

Meanwhile, a cold front will be settling southward through Canada, and this approaching front means business with a well of cold air behind it.  The jet stream winds aloft will be critical in the role this front plays in our weather heading into the start of the holiday weekend - remember that this fast river of air aloft not only steers storms like the next one racing east out of the Great Lakes later this week, but also acts as a thermostat, separating cold air to the north from warm air to the south of the wind corridor.  I'm quite certain the jet stream will NOT buckle enough to allow that powerful cold front to carry a cool airmass into New England this weekend, but that doesn't mean it won't have an impact.  In fact, the frontal boundary will first settle through Southern Canada and into Northern Maine Thursday night with a round of showers and thunderstorms.  But Northern Maine won't be the only area seeing a few showers Thursday night, as a small piece of energy broken off of the main Great Lakes disturbance will be riding south of New England, marking the leading edge to another surge of warmth and moisture riding northeast up the coastline.  The result will be South Coast showers Thursday night with areas of dense fog, and perhaps an isolated shower for the remainder of Southern New England.  Friday will bring an interaction between the strong upper level disturbance moving east out of the Great Lakes and the cold front sagging southward across Northern New England and will result in thickening clouds through the day, lingering fog for at least a few hours on the South Coast, and scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon in Northern and Western New England, where locally torrential downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning are likely to be found in some of these storms.  Though Eastern New England will stay dry longest, by later Friday evening showers will move in, and periods of rain and downpours will fall through most of New England Friday night.

With the energetic disturbance not likely to pass through New England until Saturday morning, I'm expecting areas of rain, downpours and thunder to continue through Friday night, dropping a couple of inches of rain in parts of Northern and Central New England!  This rain is likely to linger into Saturday morning for especially eastern areas, but the withdrawal of the storm east off the coastline should allow winds to shift - blowing from the northwest as Saturday wears on, allowing drying of the lower levels that will bring emerging sunshine.  With such a mild airmass in place - the jet stream continues to rise northward after the passage of this system meaning the warm air just keeps coming - any sunshine would easily push temperatures well into the 70s across New England.  It stands to figure that there is some degree of variability to the Saturday forecast dependent on the speed of the storm and the rate at which it strengthens - a slower storm or slightly farther south track would delay the wind shift and therefore delay drying later Saturday, but right now I think we're on track for emerging Saturday sunshine.  The only exceptions to dramatic warming with any breaks of sun will be for coastal communities, where it's important to note that an onshore component to the wind is likely to bring cooler temperatures, and more stubborn clouds on Saturday.

Regardless, the summer warmth that's been building from the Southwestern U.S. through the nation's midsection and even northward into Central Canada will be on the move and destined to move into New England.  By Sunday, this warm and increasingly dry air will yield a gorgeous blend of sun and clouds, with the only lingering question being surface wind direction - which may once again turn onshore near the coastline to keep coastal areas cooler, but most of New England will warm to near 80 degrees!

By Memorial Day Monday, all signs point to a strengthening southwest wind, which is a warm wind direction for almost all of New England, except, of course, south-facing shorelines.  With enough dry air in place for nearly full sunshine, the combination of sunshine and warm air should have no problem boosting temperatures well into the 80s - even at the coastline - with some spots hitting 90!  This deep summer warmth will last through midweek, and even after the passage of a cold front that's likely to bring a round of strong thunderstorms, a warmer-than-normal pattern is likely to continue through the first half of June!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Thursday, May 25 at 11:20 AM

First Off:  Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts who use the Florida State University meteorological information regularly have likely noticed most of it has gone offline for the time being (one example: tropical data at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ ).  A message has replaced the data saying that the University has decided that no data pertaining in any way to a hurricane forecast may be posted on any University site.  This has to be one of the worst decisions ever made by an organization regarding dissemination of meteorological information.  I have to assume the decision was made by a non-meteorologist in charge of University policy, but this is going much too far in stripping the meteorological community of information that goes far beyond the scope of second guessing a hurricane forecast.  I've sent contact to Florida State and have heard back - the hope is that this will be resolved internally in the coming days.  If it's not, I will post here the contact information of who to reach with complaints.  I rarely believe things of this nature are worth fighting for, but this is a wealth of information that has in the past, and would in the future, save lives, including lives in New England.  I will keep you posted.

Remainder of forecast discussion is reposted with only slight editions because yesterday's was so late...have removed portions which no longer apply temporally.  -Matt

************************

Surface weather map in immediate vicinity will be devoid of any major players on Thu as NewEng will be sandwiched between Great Lakes low - the reflection of Pacific-origin shortwave moving east on the south side of the Westerlies - and the anticyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast.  The result will be a strengthening SW flow and this coupled with dimmed sunshine will mix the atmosphere well and add enuf insolation to boost temps above normal into the 70s most areas.  Not full sun effect given multiple cloud fragments that will ride overhead - perhaps not as any organized cloud mass, but with warm and moist advection at all levels of the atmosphere, this phenomenon will be difficult to avoid.

On Monday we looked at the strong cold front that would be pressing southward thru Canada this week, and remarked that the cold airmass behind it should stay out of NewEng thanks to rising heights.  The problematic feature for the end of the week and the weekend was the Pacific shortwave that was over Srn CA on Mon and continues to move E, transported by the southern perimeter of the westerlies.  Our thinking from Monday still looks to be on track with this - keeping convective threat in the forecast for Fri...tho now looking like a late Fri Eve or early Fri Ngt onset with the daytime action over NY State, and NewEng rains thru the overnight Fri.  One of the big factors discussed here Monday was the interaction between the Srn Canada front and the incoming vort, and that's still taking center-stage for this event - because while I may still foresee the cooler airmass staying put in Canada thanks to heights that won't fall enough to allow the new air to settle southward, there is good agreement on the surface convergent zone with this boundary dropping southward thru Nrn NewEng Thu Ngt into Fri, and this will help to focus the llvl moisture convergence in advance of the main vort.  The result should be Srn Canada convection along the front settling southward into extreme Nrn NewEng Thu Ngt, then convection blossoming in the increasingly warm and humid airmass ahead of the incoming vort across NY State.  This vort will clearly be dampening as it moves thru NewEng and maintains a positive tilt, and this will be reflected in the lower levels by an opening mid and low level circulation and a slightly weakening surface low pressure center.  Nonetheless, the air will be increasingly moist with precipitable water values over 1.50" thanks to earlier advection during the day on a 30 kt SW llvl jet, trough axis will be well defined at all levels, and pockets of CAPE nearing 1000 J/kg will be present along with helicity values of over 150 m2/s2 in parts of Southern NewEng, while mid-level front will be settling southward into Northern NewEng.  This will set up a continuing upglide heavy rain event across the Northern half of NewEng, with a more convective event for Southern NewEng, but heavy overnight rainfall over over 1" in many Northern areas with a couple of inches not out of the question in localized spots across the North depending on how this all plays out.

I'm staying relatively optimistic about Sat as morning lingering showers and clouds seem unavoidable but the progressive nature of this feature lends support to the NAM solution of a wind shift during the day Sat that would set up a downsloping NW sfc flow that would bring out sunshine Sat afternoon.  Remember that with such a warm airmass and high heights settling in (deepening warmth) any sunshine can go a long way and I do expect that to be the case later Sat.  In fact, the warming may be significant enuf for a slightly amplifying follow-up shortwave Sat afternoon to interact with lingering 850 thermal boundary and pocket of lingering cool air aloft for new convection to fire Sat afternoon.  Coastal onshore component likely to linger, tho, and this cuts back temps at the seashore.

Building heights and plenty of warm air continue to bode well for Sun thru Tue with increasing heat thru the period.  Strengthening and expanding anticylcone E of NewEng on Sun may be just enuf to leave a coastal component at the beaches while interior keeps light land breeze.  Beyond Sunday, I would caution one and all that statistical guidance is likely way too low on this for Mon-Wed in particular thanks to climatological anomaly coupled with what will be a good downslope component and very warm boundary layer air.  I still think touching 90 is a good bet for the best downsloped spots Mon-Tue!

The longer range and the tropics thoughts really go hand in hand for now, as they both focus on one of the same features, and that's a decent cold front that cuts thru NewEng on Thu of next week.  This puts a temporary break in the swelter, and is likely to bring significant convection given a good tap of Gulf and Atlantic moisture northward into NewEng prior to frontal passage.  Behind the front, warm air from Canada will be quick to wrap back east into NewEng - and truly while I say from Canada, the origin of this air comes from the desert Southwestern U.S.  Then again, why stop there, because to follow the origin of the dry air you'd find two contributors - one is Eastern Asia and the other is Australia.  On Monday I'd mentioned that we are likely looking at what will be an extended period (several weeks at least) of hot and dry weather for the Southwestern quarter of the U.S., and this includes the four corners region.  And how could it not be when we can trace dry source regions from the other side of the world in both the Northern and Southern hemisphere?  One does have to wonder if this will have growing implications later in the summer as this hot and dry pattern in that part of the nation continues to feed warm and dry air north and east with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing thru at least the first half of June even here in the northeast.  The result will be a warm start to meteorological summer with occasional taps from the tropics - as I'm expecting to see toward the end of next week - and if the ridge continues to pump across the SW quarter of the US (going to be tough to reverse that anytime soon given the season) then we will continue to favor broad troughing over the Northeast, though given the shear amount of available warmth, it may be an instance where troffing doesn't mean cool as much as it means unsettled and it means we'll keep an eye to the tropics.  Speaking of...

Tropics:  And speaking of the tropics, though we haven't officially opened the season yet, I mentioned earlier this week I wanted to add clarity to some thoughts I threw out to you regarding the Gulf for the first week of June.  By June 6-8, indications from Ensemble means continue to be for a tropical wave to migrate west thru the Western Caribbean and into the Eastern Gulf.  Here it would encounter the remnants of our cold front - slated to come thru the Northeast next Thu - and a stream of moisture screaming in from the Equator and across Central America.  The confluence of a dying cold front, an incoming easterly tropical wave, and abundant moisture feed from the equator spells a good recipe at this early point in the season for development over the Gulf, and I think we're going to have to continue watching this carefully for that time frame.

Matt


AS TROUGH RELAXES, WARMTH READY TO BUILD NORTHEAST - BUT IT'S NEVER QUITE THAT EASY IN NEW ENGLAND!

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary: 

Reminder:  We continue to run the Help Your Neighbor Flood Help webpage.  If you have a free or discounted service to offer flood victims, email web@necn.com with the offer and we will add it to the collection at the Flood Help site: http://necn.wordpress.com.

As for the weather, the trough, or dip, in the jet stream winds aloft that has left New England cool and at times unsettled over the past couple of days will gradually lift out over the coming days, though quite begrudgingly.  Eventually, this pattern change will give way to deep summer warmth for the Memorial Day holiday, and while the transition may have a few bumps along the way, the forecast continues to hold promise for most - whether you prefer 60s, 70s or near 90, this seven day stretch from Monday to Monday will have provided something for us all.

The Wednesday morning scenario places a persistent area of low pressure east of New England, with a pool of cold air aloft.  Cold air high in the sky contrasts greatly with warmer air near the ground in a setup like this, and the result will be building clouds through the day Wednesday, blotting out from time to time the warming sunshine.  In Eastern New England, these clouds are likely to grow tall enough and heavy enough to drop a few rain showers late Wednesday morning through mid to late afternoon.  These clouds will diminish quickly after sunset Wednesday evening as the cool pool of air aloft nudges east in response to the eastward retreating storm center.

Of course, this storm is moving east away from New England largely in response to yet another intense disturbance moving east, kicking the old out and ready to usher in new energy.  Before the next system arrives, however, New England will see a quiet transition day on Thursday.  Ahead of the approaching disturbance, the counter-clockwise flow of air around this system centered over the Great Lakes and of Pacific origin will help to usher warmer and more moist air into New England at all levels of the atmosphere.  As is often the case with increasing warmth and humidity, plenty of clouds will grace the skies of New England on Thursday, though I expect them to be thin enough to allow for plenty of dim and milky sunshine that - combined with a developing then strengthening south and southwest wind - will help to boost temperatures into the 70s.

Meanwhile, a cold front will be settling southward through Canada, and this approaching front means business with a well of cold air behind it.  The jet stream winds aloft will be critical in the role this front plays in our weather heading into the start of the holiday weekend - remember that this fast river of air aloft not only steers storms like the next one racing east out of the Great Lakes later this week, but also acts as a thermostat, separating cold air to the north from warm air to the south of the wind corridor.  I'm quite certain the jet stream will NOT buckle enough to allow that powerful cold front to carry a cool airmass into New England this weekend, but that doesn't mean it won't have an impact.  In fact, the frontal boundary will settle into Northern New England on Friday at the very same time the strong upper level disturbance moves into the Northeast from our west.  The result will be widespread development of thunderstorms and downpours through Southern Canada and extreme Northern New England Thursday night, then developing through most of the remainder of the Northeast during the day Friday and especially Friday afternoon.  Some of these thunderstorms are likely to bring torrential rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

With the energetic disturbance not likely to pass through New England until Saturday morning, I'm expecting areas of rain, downpours and thunder to continue through Friday night, dropping a couple of inches of rain in many parts of New England!  This rain is likely to linger into Saturday morning, but the rate of strengthening of this storm is likely to salvage the later half of the day.  What I mean by this is that the surface storm associated with the jet stream disturbance will actually be strengthening fairly quickly as it pulls off the Massachusetts coastline, and will be drawing air into its center.  This *should* allow winds to shift from the northwest as Saturday wears on, allowing drying of the lower levels that will bring emerging sunshine.  With such a mild airmass in place - the jet stream continues to rise northward after the passage of this system meaning the warm air just keeps coming - any sunshine would easily push temperatures well into the 70s across New England.  It stands to figure that there is some degree of variability to the Saturday forecast dependent on the speed of the storm and the rate at which it strengthens - a slower storm or slightly farther south track would delay the wind shift and therefore delay drying later Saturday, but right now I think we're on track for emerging Saturday sunshine.

Regardless, the summer warmth that's been building from the Southwestern U.S. through the nation's midsection and even northward into Central Canada will be on the move and destined to move into New England.  By Sunday, this warm and increasingly dry air will yield a gorgeous blend of sun and clouds, with the only lingering question being surface wind direction - which may turn onshore near the coastline to keep coastal areas cooler, but most of New England will warm to near 80 degrees!

By Memorial Day Monday, all signs point to a strengthening southwest wind, which is a warm wind direction for almost all of New England, except, of course, south-facing shorelines.  With enough dry air in place for nearly full sunshine, the combination of sunshine and warm air should have no problem boosting temperatures well into the 80s - even at the coastline - with some spots hitting 90!  This deep summer warmth will last through midweek, and even after the passage of a cold front that's likely to bring a round of strong thunderstorms, a warmer-than-normal pattern is likely to continue through the first half of June!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Wednesday, May 24 at 3:20 PM

Clouds and showers popping up this afternoon have been well progged by models in past several runs as upper level cool pool and increased sfc diurnally warmed airmass are at odds.  Both convective showers and clouds will diminish gradually after dusk.  Winds should go near calm overnight which will allow decent cooling for a time tho Ci clouds are likely to spread overhead at least in fragments late as warm advection begins aloft.

Surface weather map in immediate vicinity will be devoid of any major players on Thu as NewEng will be sandwiched between Great Lakes low - the reflection of Pacific-origin shortwave moving east on the south side of the Westerlies - and the anticyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast.  The result will be a strengthening SW flow and this coupled with dimmed sunshine will mix the atmosphere well and add enuf insolation to boost temps above normal into the 70s most areas.  Not full sun effect given multiple cloud fragments that will ride overhead - perhaps not as any organized cloud mass, but with warm and moist advection at all levels of the atmosphere, this phenomenon will be difficult to avoid.

On Monday we looked at the strong cold front that would be pressing southward thru Canada this week, and remarked that the cold airmass behind it should stay out of NewEng thanks to rising heights.  The problematic feature for the end of the week and the weekend was the Pacific shortwave that was over Srn CA on Mon and continues to move E, transported by the southern perimeter of the westerlies.  Our thinking from Monday still looks to be on track with this - keeping convective threat in the forecast for Fri...tho now looking like a late Fri Eve or early Fri Ngt onset with the daytime action over NY State, and NewEng rains thru the overnight Fri.  One of the big factors discussed here Monday was the interaction between the Srn Canada front and the incoming vort, and that's still taking center-stage for this event - because while I may still foresee the cooler airmass staying put in Canada thanks to heights that won't fall enough to allow the new air to settle southward, there is good agreement on the surface convergent zone with this boundary dropping southward thru Nrn NewEng Thu Ngt into Fri, and this will help to focus the llvl moisture convergence in advance of the main vort.  The result should be Srn Canada convection along the front settling southward into extreme Nrn NewEng Thu Ngt, then convection blossoming in the increasingly warm and humid airmass ahead of the incoming vort across NY State.  This vort will clearly be dampening as it moves thru NewEng and maintains a positive tilt, and this will be reflected in the lower levels by an opening mid and low level circulation and a slightly weakening surface low pressure center.  Nonetheless, the air will be increasingly moist with precipitable water values over 1.50" thanks to earlier advection during the day on a 30 kt SW llvl jet, trough axis will be well defined at all levels, and pockets of CAPE nearing 1000 J/kg will be present along with helicity values of over 150 m2/s2 in parts of Southern NewEng, while mid-level front will be settling southward into Northern NewEng.  This will set up a continuing upglide heavy rain event across the Northern half of NewEng, with a more convective event for Southern NewEng, but heavy overnight rainfall over over 1" in many areas with a couple of inches not out of the question across the North depending on how this all plays out.

I'm staying relatively optimistic about Sat as morning lingering showers and clouds seem unavoidable but the progressive nature of this feature lends support to the NAM solution of a wind shift during the day Sat that would set up a downsloping NW sfc flow that would bring out sunshine Sat afternoon.  Remember that with such a warm airmass and high heights settling in (deepening warmth) any sunshine can go a long way and I do expect that to be the case later Sat.  In fact, the warming may be significant enuf for a slightly amplifying follow-up shortwave Sat afternoon to interact with lingering 850 thermal boundary and pocket of lingering cool air aloft for new convection to fire Sat afternoon.

Building heights and plenty of warm air continue to bode well for Sun thru Tue with increasing heat thru the period.  Strengthening and expanding anticylcone E of NewEng on Sun may be just enuf to leave a coastal component at the beaches while interior keeps light land breeze.  Beyond Sunday, I would caution one and all that statistical guidance is likely way too low on this for Mon-Wed in particular thanks to climatological anomaly coupled with what will be a good downslope component and very warm boundary layer air.  I still think touching 90 is a good bet for the best downsloped spots Mon-Tue!

The longer range and the tropics thoughts really go hand in hand for now, as they both focus on one of the same features, and that's a decent cold front that cuts thru NewEng on Thu of next week.  This puts a temporary break in the swelter, and is likely to bring significant convection given a good tap of Gulf and Atlantic moisture northward into NewEng prior to frontal passage.  Behind the front, warm air from Canada will be quick to wrap back east into NewEng - and truly while I say from Canada, the origin of this air comes from the desert Southwestern U.S.  Then again, why stop there, because to follow the origin of the dry air you'd find two contributors - one is Eastern Asia and the other is Australia.  On Monday I'd mentioned that we are likely looking at what will be an extended period (several weeks at least) of hot and dry weather for the Southwestern quarter of the U.S., and this includes the four corners region.  And how could it not be when we can trace dry source regions from the other side of the world in both the Northern and Southern hemisphere?  One does have to wonder if this will have growing implications later in the summer as this hot and dry pattern in that part of the nation continues to feed warm and dry air north and east with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing thru at least the first half of June even here in the northeast.  The result will be a warm start to meteorological summer with occasional taps from the tropics - as I'm expecting to see toward the end of next week - and if the ridge continues to pump across the SW quarter of the US (going to be tough to reverse that anytime soon given the season) then we will continue to favor broad troughing over the Northeast, though given the shear amount of available warmth, it may be an instance where troffing doesn't mean cool as much as it means unsettled and it means we'll keep an eye to the tropics.  Speaking of...

Tropics:  And speaking of the tropics, though we haven't officially opened the season yet, I mentioned earlier this week I wanted to add clarity to some thoughts I threw out to you regarding the Gulf for the first week of June.  By June 6-8, indications from Ensemble means continue to be for a tropical wave to migrate west thru the Western Caribbean and into the Eastern Gulf.  Here it would encounter the remnants of our cold front - slated to come thru the Northeast next Thu - and a stream of moisture screaming in from the Equator and across Central America.  The confluence of a dying cold front, an incoming easterly tropical wave, and abundant moisture feed from the equator spells a good recipe at this early point in the season for development over the Gulf, and I think we're going to have to continue watching this carefully for that time frame.

Have a great Wednesday.

Matt


NOAA RELEASES 2006 HURRICANE FORECAST...NWS CONFIRMS F2 TORNADO IN HAMPTON, NH, THIS WEEKEND WITH VIDEO FEATURED IN THIS POST...MEANWHILE, HEAT READY TO BUILD NORTHEAST

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis:  An upper level disturbance moving from north to south across New England on Tuesday will produce plenty of clouds, and though skies will appear threatening at times, I expect a mostly dry day except for some sprinkles in the mountainous and hilly terrain of New England.  Winds will be brisk for yet another day, and combined with below normal temperatures this will mean a cool-feeling day for many.  Tuesday night will bring some clearing that will lead into a pleasant blend of sun and clouds through most of Wednesday - though billowing afternoon clouds are likely to drop light rain showers on Eastern New England by late afternoon.  Though new clouds will overspread New England amidst sunshine on Thursday - an indicator of warmer air moving in aloft - I expect a dry and pleasant day of warming temperatures.  By Friday, a new disturbance aloft will move into New England later in the day, bringing a round of thunderstorms and showers that may last from late Friday through Friday night, though at this point I expect the system to be progressive enough to allow a return of sunshine for the holiday weekend, with temperatures climbing well above normal into the 80s!  Enjoy your day.  -Matt

Weather Summary out later today, as usual, which will include NOAA's 2006 Hurricane Forecast.

General Weather Summary: 

Quite a few updates to pass along to you today!  First of all, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual hurricane forecast yesterday, and if you'd like to reference the forecast directly, which calls for 13 to 16 named storms, 8-10 of them hurricanes, and 4-6 becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater, you can follow the following link:

NOAA 2006 Hurricane Prediction

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service in Gray, ME, has investigated the damage in Hampton, NH (tornado pictured below), caused by Sunday evening's storms and determined that while several funnel clouds were observed, one in particular touched down as a tornado on I-95.  Given the damage, and the fact that a truck was literally picked up off the ground before being overturned, the Fujita scale estimates this to be an F2 tornado, with estimated winds of 120-130 mph.  To access the statement from the National Weather Service, download this text file:

Download HamptonTVS.txt

Meanwhile, the small still image I shared with you yesterday from Karen Grygiel, who was in Hampton at the time of the tornado, was part of a movie.  You can see the still image by clicking on it below, though it is small in size.  A few seconds of the movie have been set up by Karen at the following link:

Karen Grygiel's Movie of Hampton, NH, Tornado

The weather pattern continues to be much more progressive than it was last week, and this means the jet stream winds aloft - the fast river of air aloft that steers our storm systems and acts as a thermostat for the atmosphere - will continue to keep disturbances moving quickly through New England, eventually lifting north of our region and allowing us to transition to the warmer side of the thermostat.  In the meantime, a "trough," or dip, in the jet stream will remain parked over New England for the first half of the week.  On the north side of this trough here in New England, we remain on the north side of the metaphorical thermostat, and that means plenty of cool air.  In fact, a weak upper level disturbance coupled with the difference between solar-warmed ground and chilly air aloft as a result of this trough will allow for the development of billowing puffy cumulus clouds for most of us, and a few light rain showers will result across Northern New England with a possible afternoon sprinkle in the hilly terrain of Southern New England.  After a quiet and cool Tuesday night, a similar pattern will remain in place for Wednesday, though the combination of lingering cold air aloft and increasingly mild temperatures here at ground level will raise the risk for a few afternoon rain showers through most of Eastern New England.

By Thursday, the entire jet stream pattern begins to reconfigure, as the trough in the Northeast relaxes, giving way to a building ridge from the south.  As the ridge, or bump, in the jet stream rises up toward New England, we will transition from the cool side to the warm, summery side of the atmospheric thermostat.  This will spell increasing temperatures Thursday and Friday, and right into the Memorial Day weekend!  Still, a bundle of strong energy will be caught in those same jet stream winds, and will traverse New England likely sometime later Friday, bringing a round of thunderstorms for most of New England.  The speed of this disturbance is still somewhat in question, which will determine our threat for showers on Saturday, but at this point I would expect showers and thunderstorms to last through Friday night but diminish for Saturday, allowing drier and downright warm summer air to stream into New England!  By Sunday and Memorial Day, the warmth shoud keep coming, bringing temperatures into the 80s with a few spots touching 90 either on Sunday or Monday!  The only possible glitch would be if the Friday disturbance slows down dramatically, but at this point I continue to see that as unlikely.

A warmer than normal pattern - at least, on average - will remain with New England through the beginning of June.  Meanwhile, attention will soon turn to the tropics as Hurricane Season begins June 1, and warm waters are already in place in the Gulf of Mexico with sea level pressures in that region expected to fall during the first week of June, it's likely that lots of attention will be paid to flaring areas of thunderstorms and associated tropical waves from the Western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of June.  I'll keep you posted on this as we draw closer to it!

Have a wonderful Tuesday.

Technical Discussion:  None today, my friends!

Matt


BRISK START TO WORKWEEK TO BE FOLLOWED BY SUMMERY ENDING...WARMTH LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: 

Strong Sunday evening thunderstorms marked the leading edge to a new airmass that has taken control of most of New England Monday, with the final transitions underway in Maine evidenced by lingering rain showers Monday morning.  The trend will be for more and more of us to find sunshine Monday afternoon, but an active wind gusting over 30 mph at times will couple with the new cool airmass to create a brisk feeling day.  Expect stars to be muddled by plenty of clouds in Northern New England Monday night, though partly cloudy skies will prevail farther south with chilly temperatures for one and all.  The cool start Tuesday morning will rebound with the help of sunshine - strong to start the day in Central and Southern New England, but all of us will see increasing billowing clouds during the afternoon, with a few sprinkles possible in the North Country and through much of Maine.  The light rain showers in Maine will diminish Tuesday evening, though the impetus for these showers will back westward on Wednesday, allowing billowing afternoon clouds through sunshine to drop light showers on most of Eastern New England.  More pronounced warming will move in for the end of the week, and though a round of thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon, most of the Memorial Day weekend is looking quite summery at this point!  -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

Hampton, NH, apparent funnel as photographed by Karen Grygiel:  Mvi_3784

The same strong, energetic upper level disturbance that brought severe thunderstorms to some of New England Sunday afternoon and evening continues to move east, leaving lingering rains that will continue diminishing to showers in Eastern Maine through Monday afternoon.  As the storms moved rapidly east Sunday evening, traveling at over 45 mph, they brought an impressive display of cloud to ground lightning, locally fierce winds and localized large hail, as well.  A water spout - more likely a tornado touchdown over water - was reported in Narrangansett Bay off the coast of Portsmouth, RI, and a funnel cloud was reported by many of you to me last evening in Hampton, NH.  Damage was done by this storm, and the National Weather Service Office in Gray, ME, oversees the Hampton area and will be surveying the damage to determine if it was indeed a tornado touchdown, or straight-line winds.

Nonetheless, with the weather pattern much more progressive than it was last week, the jet stream winds aloft - the fast river of air aloft that steers our storm systems and acts as a thermostat for the atmosphere - will continue to usher the disturbance east of New England, allowing dry but cool air to filter in behind it.  Early morning reports from Northern Vermont were of snowflakes in and around Jay, and Route 108 through the "Smuggler's Notch Pass" was closed due to snow!  This chilly air will modify quite a bit as it "downslopes", or flows down the mountains of New England, and toward the coastal plain.  This downsloping wind tends to warm the air, and that, combined with sunshine, will help to boost temperatures into the lower 60s along the coastal plain, while elevated areas will remain cooler.  Across the far north, enough moisture will remain present in the lower levels of the atmosphere for plenty of clouds to redevelop Monday afternoon, and linger through Monday night while the remainder of New England maintains partly cloudy and cool conditions.

While the weather pattern is moving quickly, a "trough," or dip, in the jet stream will remain parked over New England for the first half of the week.  On the north side of this trough here in New England, we remain on the north side of the metaphorical thermostat, and that means plenty of cool air.  In fact, after morning sunshine on Tuesday, the difference between solar-warmed ground and chilly air aloft as a result of this trough will allow for the development of billowing puffy cumulus clouds for most of us, and a few light rain showers will result across Northern New England.  By Wednesday, a similar pattern will remain in place, though the combination of lingering cold air aloft and increasingly mild temperatures here at ground level will raise the risk for a few afternoon rain showers through most of Eastern New England.

By Thursday, the entire jet stream pattern begins to reconfigure, as the trough in the Northeast relaxes, giving way to a building ridge from the south.  As the ridge, or bump, in the jet stream rises up toward New England, we will transition from the cool side to the warm, summery side of the atmospheric thermostat.  This will spell increasing temperatures Thursday and Friday, and right into the Memorial Day weekend!  Still, a bundle of strong energy will be caught in those same jet stream winds, and will traverse New England likely sometime later Friday (though the exact timing is still a bit tentative), bringing a round of thunderstorms for most of New England before drier air settles in - along with summer warmth - for Saturday, Sunday and Monday!

Enjoy the week - see you back here tomorrow!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Monday, May 22 at 12:30 PM

As for past weather, General Wx Summary of last week gave a summary of flooding, and today's summarizes a few notes of Sun eve severe wx and Mon AM snow for Nrn mountains.  Also please note have received pic of Hampton, NH, funnel and have posted with General Wx Summary at time of this posting.  Good mixing to just above 900 mb today of cold boundary layer airmass and strong insolation angle will help temps to rebound but still will fall below normal all areas and cold overnight lows will help to drive daily avg temp even farther below the norm.  Elevated areas will remain substantially cooler thanks to steep lapse rate and this same steep lapse rate will continue to aid in hearty Cu development outside of downsloped areas, and with weakening wind toward eve, clouds likely to try to fill in thru those areas as well.

Deeper llvl moisture advects southward overnight Mon Ngt and this promotes Sc deck across Nrn NewEng while effects of downsloping help to maintain breaks in Southern areas.  With cold pool lingering aloft on Tue, boundary layer slightly warmer, and more low level moisture available thanks to moist advection from the N, plenty of Sc will pop for just about all of NewEng and where lapse rates are steepest - across North Country, ME, and also a secondary max of 850-500 mb lapse rates over the SCoast - some sprinkles or light rain showers are likely, and of course, orography will assist in precip production, tho QPF will be quite light owing to limited available moisture.

I'm expecting the same general pattern to persist on Wed and even tho lapse rates are decreasing as cold pool shifts northeast and modifies, still enuf cool air aloft to the tune of -20 to -25 C and this will couple with vort max pivoting slowly around main upper low which will aid in dynamic forcing Wed midday and PM, and this should easily overcome lessening lapse rates for showers in Maine, and perhaps into the remainder of Eastern NewEng if vort lobe and associated midlevel trof swing thru during time of max diurnal htg.

The longer range focuses on the longwave pattern, which begins with a bit of uncertainty Thu-Fri with the handling of strong Pacific vort pushing into Srn CA as of this writing.  The question with this vort is whether it remains embedded in the westerlies and moves swifty eastward, or if it becomes separated from the main steering flow and slows over the nation's midsection, thereby opening up additional southern gulf moisture to the disturbance.  This uncertainty has been expressed by wavering model solutions, even among the same models from run to run.  The consensus, however, fits the longwave pattern and the Ensemble means, which would suggest that this vort may indeed meander south of the main corridor of steering winds, but that the fast atmospheric flow squeezed between a building broad Central US ridge and a lingering Hudson Bay upper low should keep this thing from deviating too far outside the mean flow and while it may slow Wed-Thu time frame, it should remain progressive.  This does introduce some timing issues and therefore varying assessments of convective threat for Fri, esp given the vort when figured with the cold front settling southward through southern Canada so at this point I think it's wise to keep a threat of thunder in the forecast for Fri for all spots, tho if the shortwave comes thru early enuf that threat would be mitigated.

Regardless, heights continue to build into the weekend, peaking on Sunday but protecting NewEng from precip thru the period, the way I see it.  The front coming south out of Canada will slam the brakes on as it encounters the building ridge and while extreme Northern NewEng still may have to monitor the forecasted position of that front for Memorial Day, overall I'd say the majority of NewEng stays quite literally high and dry as air about 6-8 degrees C above normal comes streaming in at 850 mb.  This alone would produce sfc temps in the lower to middle 80s, then factor in a downsloping flow and the summertime heat is on with some spots pushing 90 on especially Sunday.  As for what could ruin this, certainly more abundant cloudcover would knock us down, and a farther southward frontal position would introduce tstms and cooler temps, but right now I really don't see those possibilities as being realized.

As we enter the beginning of June, uncertainty becomes much greater among the Ensemble members, but what is agreed upon is a trough retrogression over the Northeast and eventually into the Great Lakes, which would favor beating down the heat a bit, though temps should remain above normal thru the start of the month given the open boundary layer and low level flow to southern and western warmth, and this will be further fueled by heat that will be building over a period of several weeks of dry and hot conditions - and in fact perhaps a further escalating drought issue - for the southwestern US where conditions in the SW quarter of the nation may stay devoid of moisture for the next month!  Still, with the retrogression of the upper level trough, this would mean shortwaves accompanied by upper level diffluence would be allowed to drop southeast toward NewEng, and coupled with the diffluence, this would favor both warm and cold advective convection in the Northeast, so the start of June may be an active one with regard to thunderstorm development.

Tropics:  I think we have to examine things a bit more closely this week regarding what potential, if any, exists for the first week of June.  There have been repeated signals over the last several days among Ensemble members of a tropical wave marching west and finding some organization in the Western Caribbean or Eastern Gulf during the first week of June.  I hope to expand upon this with some more clarity either tomorrow or Wednesday in my next technical discussion.

Enjoy the rest of your day.

Matt


FRIDAY DOWNPOURS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...DECENT WEEKEND OVERALL...THREAT FOR INCREASING WINDS LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY RAISES CURIOSITY OF DOWNED TREE POTENTIAL

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: 

Important Links:

Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories

Current River Measurements and Forecasts from the River Forecast Center

As flood waters recede, New Englanders assess damage to their homes, some of which will be unliveable for quite awhile, if at all.  As a New Englander, I know this is the time we band together to help one another - it has been the New England way of life to assist one another in times of need...especially when inflicted by New England weather...for centuries, and so many of you generously have offered to help those in need during trying times.  Business owners or individuals offering free and discounted services, as indicated in the forecast above, please email web@necn.com while those of you looking for services can access the link found in the forecast to see all of the offers.

After a couple of days reprieve, a tropical connection has returned to New England to begin our Friday.  An upper level disturbance riding north over New England will remain progressive, however, which mean the very heavy downpours and thunder that result in morning street and small stream flooding in Southern New England will be on the move into Northern New England for Friday afternoon, leaving a few breaks of late day sunshine behind across Southern areas.  These Northern downpours will continue into Friday night, while Southern New England sees only a few lingering showers.  Saturday will bring billowing clouds mixed with sunshine, and the sky may in fact turn mostly cloudy by day's end.  Nonetheless, I wouldn't expect these clouds to build much higher than enough to cause a few afternoon sprinkles in Southern New England, though Northern, Central and Western New England will find scattered light rain showers during the afternoon.  By Sunday, another strong disturbance will move through New England, bringing rapidly thickening clouds with windswept showers and downpours developing, and an increasing wind ushering in cooler air and raising concern for a few downed trees, should those winds blow hard enough.  Breezes remain active on Monday with a shot of cooler and drier air, and this should produce another pleasant day on Tuesday, with warmth building into New England by the end of the week and heading into the start of the Memorial Day weekend.. -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

Notes on Flooding:  As flood-stricken areas continue to inspect damage done to homes and businesses from the greatest flooding since the Great Floods of 1936 in the Merrimack Valley and other parts of Southern NH and Southern ME, we as a community are reaching out to help.  It's important to keep the magnitude of this flood event in perspective - though for some businesses and individuals this will be a headache requiring drying out and cleaning up, for others it is the heartbreaking permanent loss of their home or business, and thousands of individuals, families and business owners will need continued support over the coming weeks - not just in these few days as the flooding recedes.

For those of you interested in what caused the event from a weather perspective, I encourage you to look back through the archived posts here, which laid out the factors setting this up, along with maps posted at the end of last week outlining why so much moisture would come streaming into New England.  Many have asked me how much snow would have fallen if this had come as snow, instead, and the first answer is the more boring but truthful answer:  It couldn't have.  This amount of tropical moisture simply isn't able to transport this far north through a cold dome of air.  The exceptions to these rules are found only in higher terrain along or near oceans, like the higher terrain of Northern California, where the mountains enhance precipitation rates.  Nonetheless, using an average water to snow ratio of 1:13, this would have yielded a storm total of between 78 and 208 inches of snow, dependent upon location - in other words, between 6.5 and 17 feet!

Now onto the weather:  Fast-moving but torrential downpours and thunderstorms will continue to race northward through Southern New England in what has thankfully become a progressive weather pattern, which means storms that do move through New England will keep moving - a thankful change in the pattern.  A new upper level storm barrelling into the Northeast has helped to focus this tap of tropical moisture once again into our six-state region, but unlike the last time around, this intense upper level energy will remain on the move  As the disturbance chugs northeast, caught in the jet stream winds aloft, it's carrying a cool front at the surface, which is helping to focus the showers, downpours and thunderstorms.  After depositing a solid inch of rain in many Southern New England communities, the rain shield will stall across Northern New England, where some of us in Central and Northern VT and Northern NH will pick up in excess of two inches of rainfall later Friday through Friday night.  The fast rate of rainfall associated with this round of rain will allow for some renewed urban, street and small stream flooding, so a few new road washouts are possible, especially in Northern New England by Friday night, but also will aggravate flooding in Southern New England in low-lying areas where water continues to pool, and for flooding along ponds and lakes. 

As the upper level storm continues moving east during the day Friday, it will drag in a swath of drier air behind it which will bring a transition from morning showers and lingering downpours to breaks of afternoon sunshine in Southern and Central New England, especially later in the day.  Residents of the North Country should expect continuing rainfall through most of the day and parts of Northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will see the rain last into Friday night.

By Saturday, most of New England will find a break in the action, though a "trough", or dip, in the jet stream winds will still favor the progression of disturbances into the Northeast.  Nonetheless, a pleasant blend of sunshine and puffy cumulus clouds is what I'm expecting for Saturday, with some of these clouds building high enough in the mountains and hills of Northern and Western New England for a few light rain showers, but a mainly dry day elsewhere.  By Sunday, a strong upper level disturbance will dive southeast out of Canada into the jet stream trough, and this will generate new clouds and showers with embedded downpours scattered around New England on Sunday.  This disturbance will carry a strong cold front at the surface, and the showers, downpours and possible thunder along and ahead of the front on Sunday will usher in cooler air during the afternoon on a strengthening wind.  We'll want to keep a close eye on this, because if the winds strengthen enough Sunday afternoon, saturated ground will make it easy for trees to uproot, and this wind forecast is one that I'll be watching carefully.

Behind the passing front, a shot of cool air will pour into New England and send temperatures below normal on Monday, though the cool air will also be dry enough for a blend of sun and clouds.  That cool shot of air will be replaced over the course of the week by increasing warmth which should lead us into a bit of a summer feel leading into the Memorial Day weekend.

Have a great day.

-Matt


RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE...DECENT WEEKEND IN STORE...WARMTH TO BUILD TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: 

Important Links:

Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories

Current River Measurements and Forecasts from the River Forecast Center

As flood waters recede, New Englanders assess damage to their homes, some of which will be unliveable for quite awhile, if at all.  As a New Englander, I know this is the time we band together to help one another - it has been the New England way of life to assist one another in times of need...especially when inflicted by New England weather...for centuries, and so many of you generously have offered to help those in need during trying times.  Business owners or individuals offering free and discounted services, as indicated in the forecast above, please email web@necn.com while those of you looking for services can access the link found in the forecast to see all of the offers.

Weather-wise, expect another blend of sunshine and billowing puffy clouds in Central and Southern New England on Thursday with areas of rain and embedded downpours continuing across the North Country.  Areas that see sunshine will rise into the lower and middle 70s Thursday afternoon!  A strong disturbance will move east out of the Ohio Valley this evening and bring a period of rain, downpours and embedded thunder to most of New England Thursday night into Friday morning, and localized stream and urban street flooding is possible by early Friday morning.  Lingering morning showers break to some sunshine in Southern New England Friday afternoon while rain continues in the North Country.  By Saturday and Sunday, a strong upper level storm spins slowly toward and over New England, bringing Saturday afternoon mountain showers to Northern and Western New England, and perhaps an afternoon sprinkle but otherwise a pleasant day elsewhere, before Sunday brings a few more clouds and a better chance of scattered light rain showers here and there during the afternoon.  All in all, though, an enjoyable weekend!  Cool air surges in to start next week before warmth builds back - and likely summer warmth - by the end of next week and for the Memorial Day weekend. -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

As flood-stricken areas prepare to inspect damage done to homes and businesses from the greatest flooding since the Great Floods of 1936 in the Merrimack Valley and other parts of Southern NH and Southern ME, we as a community are reaching out to help.  It's important to keep the magnitude of this flood event in perspective - though for some businesses and individuals this will be a headache requiring drying out and cleaning up, for others it is the heartbreaking permanent loss of their home or business, and thousands of individuals, families and business owners will need continued support over the coming weeks - not just in these few days as the flooding recedes.

For those of you interested in what caused the event from a weather perspective, I encourage you to look back through the archived posts here, which laid out the factors setting this up, along with maps posted at the end of last week outlining why so much moisture would come streaming into New England.  Many have asked me how much snow would have fallen if this had come as snow, instead, and the first answer is the more boring but truthful answer:  It couldn't have.  This amount of tropical moisture simply isn't able to transport this far north through a cold dome of air.  The exceptions to these rules are found only in higher terrain along or near oceans, like the higher terrain of Northern California, where the mountains enhance precipitation rates.  Nonetheless, using an average water to snow ratio of 1:13, this would have yielded a storm total of between 78 and 208 inches of snow, dependent upon location - in other words, between 6.5 and 17 feet!

Now onto our upcoming weather, which thankfully features a progressive pattern, which means storms that do move through New England will keep moving - a thankful change in the pattern.  The old upper level storm that had been parked over the Ohio Valley all week long, doing its part to keep a southerly flow of moisture pumping into New England, has now moved across the North Country and will continue to bring periods of rain and downpours as it interacts with a stationary frontal boundary draped near the Canadian border and across Central Maine.  Not only is that front helping to focus rainfall, it's also separating warm air in Southern New England from cooler air in the North, and the combination of this difference in airmasses along with sunshine for awhile in Southern New England will produce a large difference in temperatures from north to south.  Even where sun shines in Southern and Central New England, puffy, black-bellied cumulus clouds will billow later in the day and will spread sprinkles and light showers over some communities, especially north of the Massachusetts Turnpike Thursday afternoon.

Meanwhile, another strong but thankfully quick moving upper level storm can be seen on radar and satellite imagery racing east across New York and Pennsylvania.  This energy is racing east, caught in the jet stream winds aloft, and is carrying a cool front at the surface, which is helping to focus showers, downpours and thunderstorms.  This area of rain is expected to spread from west to east across New England late this evening through tonight, with embedded thunder.  Precipitation amounts will be between one and two inches in the Northern half of New England with locally higher amounts that may result in some streams overflowing their banks and localized streeet and urban flooding (Thursday night and Friday combined), and either side of half an inch in the Southern half.  Needless to say, this will not help the situation of watching dams closely along smaller rivers of Southern New Hampshire and Northeastern MA, but the larger rivers should continue to recede on Friday.

As the upper level storm continues moving east during the day Friday, it will drag in a swath of drier air behind it which will bring a transition from morning showers and lingering downpours to breaks of afternoon sunshine in Southern and Central New England, especially later in the day.  Residents of the North Country should expect continuing rainfall through most of the day and parts of Northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will see the rain last into Friday night.

By Saturday, most of New England will find a break in the action, though a "trough", or dip, in the jet stream winds will still favor the progression of disturbances into the Northeast.  Nonetheless, a pleasant blend of sunshine and puffy cumulus clouds is what I'm expecting for Saturday, with some of these clouds building high enough in the mountains and hills of Northern and Western New England for a few light rain showers, but a mainly dry day elsewhere.  By Sunday, a strong upper level disturbance will dive southeast out of Canada into the jet stream trough, and this will generate new clouds and showers scattered around New England on Sunday.  This disturbance will carry a strong cold front at the surface, and the showers, downpours and possible thunder along and ahead of the front on Sunday will usher in cooler air during the afternoon on a strengthening wind.  We'll want to keep a close eye on this, because if the winds strengthen enough Sunday afternoon, saturated ground will make it easy for trees to uproot, and this wind forecast is one that I'll be watching carefully.

Behind the passing front, a shot of cool air will pour into New England and send temperatures below normal on Monday, though the cool air will also be dry enough for a blend of sun and clouds.  That cool shot of air will be replaced over the course of the week by increasing warmth which should lead us into a bit of a summer feel leading into the Memorial Day weekend.

Have a great day.

-Matt


AS SUNSHINE RETURNS AMIDST SCATTERED SHOWERS, WE BAND TOGETHER AS ONE NEW ENGLAND COMMUNITY AND PRESENT A CHANCE TO HELP

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: 

Important Links:

Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories

Current River Measurements and Forecasts from the River Forecast Center

Reported Damage Thus Far

Flood_3 Flood_2 Flood_1

Areas of significant flooding will continue, though rivers will gradually recede.  See numerous flood graphics posted above, and utilize the links, as well.  Also tips below the weather summary, so look below.  As a New Englander, I know this is the time we band together to help one another - it has been the New England way of life to assist one another in times of need...especially when inflicted by New England weather...for centuries, and so many of you generously have offered to help those in need during trying times.  Business owners or individuals offering free and discounted services, as indicated in the forecast above, please email web@necn.com while those of you looking for services can access the link found in the forecast to see all of the offers.

As for the weather today, morning sunshine is a welcome sight for many New Englanders this morning and will boost temperatures to around 70 before being blotted from time to time behind building afternoon clouds that will deposit scattered showers from lunchtime onward to most of New England, with embedded downpours from the Quabbin reservior westward, and across Northern New England.  Partly cloudy skies and areas of fog will the rule overnight Wednesday night before sunshine returns Thursday morning, and boosts temperatures over 70 degrees in most spots.  A stronger disturbance will move through Thursday night with thunderstorms moving into Western New England Thursday evening and moving east as showers and a period of rain elsewhere, with either side of half an inch for many areas, though lesser amounts farther south.  On Friday, this storm will organize with a swath of heavier rains for Central and Northern Maine where an inch of rain may fall, though the remainder of New England should find only lingering showers here and there amidst a blend of sun and clouds.  The weekend begins mostly dry in Southern New England, with scattered showers developing in Northern, Central and Western New England, especially during the afternoon.  By Sunday, a better chance of showers exists for most of New England, again especially during the afternoon.

Some things to keep in mind for those affected by flooding:

Areas of significant flooding continue, and will continue for several days.

Know alternate routes for your travel, as many roads will remain closed for quite some time.

Rivers will be VERY SLOW to recede, and patience will be needed in times when patience is hard to find.  Follow the advice of local emergency officials and do not attempt to return home until you've been cleared to do so, as numerous hazards exist.

With rivers high through the week, continuing concerns revolve around compromised structures: buildings, bridges, dams, roads and stream edges.  Keep kids away from edges of streams and rivers!

When you finally can return home:

Be aware of electrical hazards, gas leaks, debris, and new critters.

Document all damages using photos or video, and keep receipts for disaster related expenses.  If possible, retain damaged items until they can be reviewed by an insurance adjuster.

Disinfect all surfaces that came into contact with flood water, some of which has been mixed with raw sewage, oils, chemicals, etc.  Do not eat any food that came into contact with flood waters.

If you do have flood insurance - and many of us do not - file your claim ASAP.  If you're interested in flood insurance, see www.floodsmart.gov

I encourage all interests to use the links provided on my page to continue monitoring the situation, and tune into NECN through the coming days for updates on this life and property threatening situation for some communities.