Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
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Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: An upper level disturbance moving from north to south across New England on Tuesday will produce plenty of clouds, and though skies will appear threatening at times, I expect a mostly dry day except for some sprinkles in the mountainous and hilly terrain of New England. Winds will be brisk for yet another day, and combined with below normal temperatures this will mean a cool-feeling day for many. Tuesday night will bring some clearing that will lead into a pleasant blend of sun and clouds through most of Wednesday - though billowing afternoon clouds are likely to drop light rain showers on Eastern New England by late afternoon. Though new clouds will overspread New England amidst sunshine on Thursday - an indicator of warmer air moving in aloft - I expect a dry and pleasant day of warming temperatures. By Friday, a new disturbance aloft will move into New England later in the day, bringing a round of thunderstorms and showers that may last from late Friday through Friday night, though at this point I expect the system to be progressive enough to allow a return of sunshine for the holiday weekend, with temperatures climbing well above normal into the 80s! Enjoy your day. -Matt
Weather Summary out later today, as usual, which will include NOAA's 2006 Hurricane Forecast.
Quite a few updates to pass along to you today! First of all, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual hurricane forecast yesterday, and if you'd like to reference the forecast directly, which calls for 13 to 16 named storms, 8-10 of them hurricanes, and 4-6 becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater, you can follow the following link:
NOAA 2006 Hurricane Prediction
Meanwhile, the National Weather Service in Gray, ME, has investigated the damage in Hampton, NH (tornado pictured below), caused by Sunday evening's storms and determined that while several funnel clouds were observed, one in particular touched down as a tornado on I-95. Given the damage, and the fact that a truck was literally picked up off the ground before being overturned, the Fujita scale estimates this to be an F2 tornado, with estimated winds of 120-130 mph. To access the statement from the National Weather Service, download this text file:
Meanwhile, the small still image I shared with you yesterday from Karen Grygiel, who was in Hampton at the time of the tornado, was part of a movie. You can see the still image by clicking on it below, though it is small in size. A few seconds of the movie have been set up by Karen at the following link:
Karen Grygiel's Movie of Hampton, NH, Tornado
The weather pattern continues to be much more progressive than it was last week, and this means the jet stream winds aloft - the fast river of air aloft that steers our storm systems and acts as a thermostat for the atmosphere - will continue to keep disturbances moving quickly through New England, eventually lifting north of our region and allowing us to transition to the warmer side of the thermostat. In the meantime, a "trough," or dip, in the jet stream will remain parked over New England for the first half of the week. On the north side of this trough here in New England, we remain on the north side of the metaphorical thermostat, and that means plenty of cool air. In fact, a weak upper level disturbance coupled with the difference between solar-warmed ground and chilly air aloft as a result of this trough will allow for the development of billowing puffy cumulus clouds for most of us, and a few light rain showers will result across Northern New England with a possible afternoon sprinkle in the hilly terrain of Southern New England. After a quiet and cool Tuesday night, a similar pattern will remain in place for Wednesday, though the combination of lingering cold air aloft and increasingly mild temperatures here at ground level will raise the risk for a few afternoon rain showers through most of Eastern New England.
By Thursday, the entire jet stream pattern begins to reconfigure, as the trough in the Northeast relaxes, giving way to a building ridge from the south. As the ridge, or bump, in the jet stream rises up toward New England, we will transition from the cool side to the warm, summery side of the atmospheric thermostat. This will spell increasing temperatures Thursday and Friday, and right into the Memorial Day weekend! Still, a bundle of strong energy will be caught in those same jet stream winds, and will traverse New England likely sometime later Friday, bringing a round of thunderstorms for most of New England. The speed of this disturbance is still somewhat in question, which will determine our threat for showers on Saturday, but at this point I would expect showers and thunderstorms to last through Friday night but diminish for Saturday, allowing drier and downright warm summer air to stream into New England! By Sunday and Memorial Day, the warmth shoud keep coming, bringing temperatures into the 80s with a few spots touching 90 either on Sunday or Monday! The only possible glitch would be if the Friday disturbance slows down dramatically, but at this point I continue to see that as unlikely.
A warmer than normal pattern - at least, on average - will remain with New England through the beginning of June. Meanwhile, attention will soon turn to the tropics as Hurricane Season begins June 1, and warm waters are already in place in the Gulf of Mexico with sea level pressures in that region expected to fall during the first week of June, it's likely that lots of attention will be paid to flaring areas of thunderstorms and associated tropical waves from the Western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of June. I'll keep you posted on this as we draw closer to it!
Have a wonderful Tuesday.
Technical Discussion: None today, my friends!
Matt
