AS SUNSHINE RETURNS AMIDST SCATTERED SHOWERS, WE BAND TOGETHER AS ONE NEW ENGLAND COMMUNITY AND PRESENT A CHANCE TO HELP
FRIDAY DOWNPOURS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...DECENT WEEKEND OVERALL...THREAT FOR INCREASING WINDS LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY RAISES CURIOSITY OF DOWNED TREE POTENTIAL

RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE...DECENT WEEKEND IN STORE...WARMTH TO BUILD TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis and a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

For links to sites in the world of weather, feel free to click over to my website: www.mattnoyes.net 

Matt's Quick Weather Synopsis: 

Important Links:

Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories

Current River Measurements and Forecasts from the River Forecast Center

As flood waters recede, New Englanders assess damage to their homes, some of which will be unliveable for quite awhile, if at all.  As a New Englander, I know this is the time we band together to help one another - it has been the New England way of life to assist one another in times of need...especially when inflicted by New England weather...for centuries, and so many of you generously have offered to help those in need during trying times.  Business owners or individuals offering free and discounted services, as indicated in the forecast above, please email web@necn.com while those of you looking for services can access the link found in the forecast to see all of the offers.

Weather-wise, expect another blend of sunshine and billowing puffy clouds in Central and Southern New England on Thursday with areas of rain and embedded downpours continuing across the North Country.  Areas that see sunshine will rise into the lower and middle 70s Thursday afternoon!  A strong disturbance will move east out of the Ohio Valley this evening and bring a period of rain, downpours and embedded thunder to most of New England Thursday night into Friday morning, and localized stream and urban street flooding is possible by early Friday morning.  Lingering morning showers break to some sunshine in Southern New England Friday afternoon while rain continues in the North Country.  By Saturday and Sunday, a strong upper level storm spins slowly toward and over New England, bringing Saturday afternoon mountain showers to Northern and Western New England, and perhaps an afternoon sprinkle but otherwise a pleasant day elsewhere, before Sunday brings a few more clouds and a better chance of scattered light rain showers here and there during the afternoon.  All in all, though, an enjoyable weekend!  Cool air surges in to start next week before warmth builds back - and likely summer warmth - by the end of next week and for the Memorial Day weekend. -Matt

General Weather Summary: 

As flood-stricken areas prepare to inspect damage done to homes and businesses from the greatest flooding since the Great Floods of 1936 in the Merrimack Valley and other parts of Southern NH and Southern ME, we as a community are reaching out to help.  It's important to keep the magnitude of this flood event in perspective - though for some businesses and individuals this will be a headache requiring drying out and cleaning up, for others it is the heartbreaking permanent loss of their home or business, and thousands of individuals, families and business owners will need continued support over the coming weeks - not just in these few days as the flooding recedes.

For those of you interested in what caused the event from a weather perspective, I encourage you to look back through the archived posts here, which laid out the factors setting this up, along with maps posted at the end of last week outlining why so much moisture would come streaming into New England.  Many have asked me how much snow would have fallen if this had come as snow, instead, and the first answer is the more boring but truthful answer:  It couldn't have.  This amount of tropical moisture simply isn't able to transport this far north through a cold dome of air.  The exceptions to these rules are found only in higher terrain along or near oceans, like the higher terrain of Northern California, where the mountains enhance precipitation rates.  Nonetheless, using an average water to snow ratio of 1:13, this would have yielded a storm total of between 78 and 208 inches of snow, dependent upon location - in other words, between 6.5 and 17 feet!

Now onto our upcoming weather, which thankfully features a progressive pattern, which means storms that do move through New England will keep moving - a thankful change in the pattern.  The old upper level storm that had been parked over the Ohio Valley all week long, doing its part to keep a southerly flow of moisture pumping into New England, has now moved across the North Country and will continue to bring periods of rain and downpours as it interacts with a stationary frontal boundary draped near the Canadian border and across Central Maine.  Not only is that front helping to focus rainfall, it's also separating warm air in Southern New England from cooler air in the North, and the combination of this difference in airmasses along with sunshine for awhile in Southern New England will produce a large difference in temperatures from north to south.  Even where sun shines in Southern and Central New England, puffy, black-bellied cumulus clouds will billow later in the day and will spread sprinkles and light showers over some communities, especially north of the Massachusetts Turnpike Thursday afternoon.

Meanwhile, another strong but thankfully quick moving upper level storm can be seen on radar and satellite imagery racing east across New York and Pennsylvania.  This energy is racing east, caught in the jet stream winds aloft, and is carrying a cool front at the surface, which is helping to focus showers, downpours and thunderstorms.  This area of rain is expected to spread from west to east across New England late this evening through tonight, with embedded thunder.  Precipitation amounts will be between one and two inches in the Northern half of New England with locally higher amounts that may result in some streams overflowing their banks and localized streeet and urban flooding (Thursday night and Friday combined), and either side of half an inch in the Southern half.  Needless to say, this will not help the situation of watching dams closely along smaller rivers of Southern New Hampshire and Northeastern MA, but the larger rivers should continue to recede on Friday.

As the upper level storm continues moving east during the day Friday, it will drag in a swath of drier air behind it which will bring a transition from morning showers and lingering downpours to breaks of afternoon sunshine in Southern and Central New England, especially later in the day.  Residents of the North Country should expect continuing rainfall through most of the day and parts of Northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will see the rain last into Friday night.

By Saturday, most of New England will find a break in the action, though a "trough", or dip, in the jet stream winds will still favor the progression of disturbances into the Northeast.  Nonetheless, a pleasant blend of sunshine and puffy cumulus clouds is what I'm expecting for Saturday, with some of these clouds building high enough in the mountains and hills of Northern and Western New England for a few light rain showers, but a mainly dry day elsewhere.  By Sunday, a strong upper level disturbance will dive southeast out of Canada into the jet stream trough, and this will generate new clouds and showers scattered around New England on Sunday.  This disturbance will carry a strong cold front at the surface, and the showers, downpours and possible thunder along and ahead of the front on Sunday will usher in cooler air during the afternoon on a strengthening wind.  We'll want to keep a close eye on this, because if the winds strengthen enough Sunday afternoon, saturated ground will make it easy for trees to uproot, and this wind forecast is one that I'll be watching carefully.

Behind the passing front, a shot of cool air will pour into New England and send temperatures below normal on Monday, though the cool air will also be dry enough for a blend of sun and clouds.  That cool shot of air will be replaced over the course of the week by increasing warmth which should lead us into a bit of a summer feel leading into the Memorial Day weekend.

Have a great day.

-Matt