Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
With the all-important holiday weekend upon us, we're all hoping for a nice stretch of weather! While the current active weather pattern will keep us from having a four-day stretch of dry and pleasant weather, there will be some very enjoyable periods over the course of the extended holiday.
Tropical rains blossomed over Southeastern New England in the wee hours of Friday morning, moving across the Gulf of Maine and into the Mid-Coast of Maine as a band of heavy downpours and frequent lightning. While the lightning has diminished, a wave of low pressure driving this rainfall will bring rain for the first half of the day over Central and Eastern Maine. For now, the eastward progression of this tropical feed of moisture marks the end of its stay here in New England, as drier air is surging eastward and not only will continue to bring sunshine out for many areas but also will make for a noticeably less humid afternoon than we've experienced the past several days. While most areas of Southern New England will remain dry Friday afternoon, a few isolated showers will crop up in the hilly terrain from the Worcester Hills points west, and scattered showers and storms are expected across most of the Northern half of New England. These showers come thanks to lingering moisture - though it feels less humid than the past several days, there is still plenty of moisture available for showers and thunderstorms to blossom as an upper level disturbance marches across Northern New England Friday afternoon. These showers will slowly wane Friday night across the North Country, as these areas join Southern New England under partly cloudy skies. Given the new, cooler, less humid airmass, partly cloudy skies and a slackening wind, Friday night will be one of the coolest and most comfortable nights we've had in several nights.
With plenty of dry air aloft on Saturday, and the closest disturbance of any consequence moving north of the Canadian border, plenty of sunshine is expected and a surface wind blowing from the west-southwest will mean air traveling down the slopes of the hilly terrain of Western New England, and this combination with sunshine is the perfect setup to warm most of Central and Eastern New England considerably. While the weather will be quiet here at the ground on Saturday, the pattern thousands of feet above our heads will be somewhat more active, as the jet stream winds - the fast river of air aloft that steers our storm systems and acts as a thermostat for the atmosphere, separating warm air to the south from cooler air to the north - flow directly over New England. With an energetic disturbance across the Great Lakes on Saturday and those steering jet stream winds pointed right into New England, expect a few increasing clouds later Saturday through Saturday night. The timing of the passage of this disturbance is set for Sunday, and while a steady rain is likely to begin the day in Northern and Western New England, I'm hopeful that the rest of us will have a period of only a few hours of showers to disrupt our day, though a round of showers and thunder would also be possible in the afternoon. This disturbance would bring lots of clouds, producing scattered showers and thunder across New England.
Remember that the jet stream winds not only steer our disturbances but also provide that thermostatic role, and this weekend there will be a large difference in temperature and airmass setting up as deep summer warmth and tropical moisture blossoms over the Southeastern quarter of the United States, and drier air remains in place in Southern Canada. With New England on the dividing line of these airmasses, and the jet stream continuing to deliver energetic disturbances overhead, it won't take much to bring showers and thunderstorms into New England for the third and fourth, but those storms would focus along the boundary to the deep tropical air to our south. On Monday, my thinking from this early juncture is that the storms would stay south of New England, and we'll enjoy a wonderful day. But the flow aloft becomes oriented out of the Gulf of Mexico for the fourth and this does increase our chances of rain...likely in the form of numerous thunderstorms...but remember that if the all-important frontal boundary stays just a touch farther south, we'll see a better day - keep those fingers crossed!
Matt
