Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
Two storms are interacting on either side of New England on Monday - one to our north across Southern Quebec, and the other across the waters southeast of New England. These two storms are connected by a weak front, which marks a shift in wind and also has been helping to focus moisture into rainfall and snowfall for parts of New England. At last check, Sunday River ski resort reports 7.5" of NEW SNOW today on Jordan Bowl at 1800 feet in elevation, 2" that fell at the base in a burst of heavier rainfall that turned to snow in a process known as "dynamic cooling" - when rapidly rising air is cooled quickly. Similar reports of snow have been coming back from across the North in heavier bursts of precipitation. Check out the pics!
Dick Sharron's House in Glen, NH, reporting for www.northconwayweather.com:
Otherwise, a rainy pre-dawn Monday in many areas gave way to drying conditions and breaks of sunshine through the day in Southern New England as winds shifted to the west and northwest, ushering in cooler but drier air, further drying as it slopes down the hills and mountains of New England. The "occluded" front laid across New England between a Canadian storm and an ocean storm will continue to focus moisture as rainfall across the State of Maine through the day on Monday, with showers lingering in Northern New Hampshire and Vermont, though in most areas, temperatures will remain mild enough for all raindrops. In a few elevations above 1000 feet, morning rain ended as a brief burst of snow in the White Mountains, and this will be the case in the higher terrain of the Maine Mountains, where snow will mix in during heavier bursts of precipitation. All the while, the aforementioned front will be gradually pivoting northeast across Maine, shifting winds from the west and northwest behind it, gradually filtering colder air into New England from Canada. This cooler air, combined with an upper level storm providing spiraling bundles of energy aloft, will generate snow showers in the mountains of Northern New England Monday night, and while the wind direction in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere won't be perfect for significant accumulating snow, we should see at least a few inches in some of the higher terrain. Elsewhere in New England, expect lots of clouds through the day Monday thanks to plenty of lingering moisture in the lower few thousand feet of the atmosphere and cold air spilling in aloft, though breaks of sun will emerge between the clouds. Monday night will bring a partly cloudy and cool night with a persistent brisk northwest wind adding a bite to an already chilly airmass.
Expected Snowfall Accumulations - Please note, this is AVERAGE for lower elevations, and amounts will continue to be higher above 1500 feet:
Tuesday and Wednesday will be two rather similar days. That is, a chilly west and northwest flow of air will continue at the surface, locking cool Canadian air in place, while offsetting sunshine will be difficult to find in abundance given the stalled upper level storm over New England providing a cold pool of air aloft. The difference in temperature between this very cold air thousands of feet above our heads, and warmer air near the surface, will continue to generate many puffy cumulus clouds, some of which will drop a few showers of rain in Southern New England, and a few showers of snow and rain with heavier bursts of snow across the mountains of the North. In the localized, heavier bursts of snow beneath spokes of energy under the large storm aloft, quick accumulations of snow in a short period of time may make some mountain roads slippery Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
Expect a slow moderation of the airmass on Thursday with a bit more sunshine and a break between storms before yet another moderately intense storm approaches for Friday. It's possible that this end-of-week storm falls as a wintry mix for Northern New England with rain showers farther south, but the effects of the storm will be watched closely as it will leave cool air in its wake to begin the weekend. The problem (dependent upon perspective) here is that the weather pattern will be quite progressive, or fast moving, and that will mean the next disturbance won't be far behind this shot of cold air, which may leave enough cold air in place for a more widespread wintry mix with the next disturbance this weekend!
I'll keep you posted, for sure.
Technical Discussion: Technical problems with the server (out of my control) have kept me from updating today. My apologies to those of you checking back for it today!
Matt



