Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
This summary is a bit late today...
Weatherwise, New England is sandwiched between two weather systems today - a Bermuda high to our southeast with a clockwise flow of air around it, and a low pressure center in the Great Lakes with counter-clockwise flow...ushering a strengthening southwest flow between them and pushing mild air into New England.
The axis of a surface high pressure system - a fair weather cell - moving south of New England crested over New England Monday night and was responsible for our cold Tuesday morning start, with freezing fog reported in Lebanon, NH. This chillly start has been offset by the southwest winds, ushering in warmer air that's been producing daily high temperatures in the 60s, 70s and 80s across the nation's midsection. This air will bring similar results to New England, placing us on the cusp of the deeper warmth and bringing many spots into the 60s Tuesday afternoon, even with filtered sunshine through increasing high-altitude clouds. These increasing clouds are traveling ahead of a disturbance aloft, riding along the Canadian border and carrying an associated surface storm and cold front with it. While a few showers have been trying hard to jump Lake Champlain out of New York - and will succeed later in the afternoon, bringing light rain showers to Northern Vermont and New Hampshire by day's end. Elsewhere, clouds will lower and thicken gradually Tuesday night with a few showers late at night, possibly lingering into early Wednesday morning with the passage of the cold front. Behind the front, drier air will move in and some sunshine will return during the day Wednesday, though cooler air will filter in as another cool stretch of weather settles in for several days. The result will be falling daily temperatures all the way to the end of the week.
The trick here is that this cold front is likely to slow and then stall late Wednesday across Southeastern and far Southern New England. This will not only result in healthy development of puffy cumulus clouds Wednesday afternoon, but will also help to focus moisture ahead of another disturbance that will be racing northeast out of Southern Pennsylvania late Wednesday, allowing rain showers to develop over New England late Wednesday night into Thursday. With such a slow moving front, chances are good it will be very hard to kick these showers and clouds out entirely until passage of the next disturbance, slated for Thursday night.
By Friday, a new disturbance aloft will bring a returning chance of showers to New England by evening, especially across Northwestern New England, but by this point colder and drier air will be spilling in, which means a band of lake-effect snow showers off Lake Ontario is likely, carrying into the Green Mountains, with a much slighter risk of precipitation elsewhere.
As for the longer range pattern, a shot of very chilly air will move in behind Friday night's showers, delivering a hearty shot of cold air through next weekend. By early next week, the jet stream pattern will undergo a major shift - in this case called a "retrogression" where the cool dip in the jet stream winds aloft moves westward. The result will be a warmer than normal pattern - at least on average - that may last through the first half of November. Rest for the weary? That very well may be the case.
Have a great Tuesday!
Technical Discussion: None today.
Matt
Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Monday, October 30 at 2:30 PM
Relatively quiet in the short term as winds subside this eve with decreasing PG - but only briefly as strong SW gradient has established over OH Valley. Air advecting thru the boundary layer toward NewEng has history of 60s and 70s and will be in place Tue, tho with shifting winds slackening under sfc ridge axis overnight, expect valleys to decouple with frost while most areas land in the 20s and 30s, esp given that Tds currently running in low to mid 20s. Cold start Tue to be moderated by aforementioned SW flow and help from insolation. Full insolation with 925 mb temps would support temps over 70 in Srn NewEng, but decent moisture connection already evident on satellite imagery today over the Central and South-Central US is well modeled and progged to move overhead on Tue, limiting insolation by at least filtering sun. Mixing will be a bit limited thanks to this cloud cover, and coupled with cold start, temps shud land in mid 60s most areas of Central/Srn NewEng...tho CT river valley may be able to hit 70. This will leave a mild eve for trick-or-treating as mild flow continues in advance of shortwave moving east across the Nrn Plains as of this writing, and that will be moving thru Srn Canada on Tue.
Xpct showers Tue ngt - after 00Z - that will amount to between .01 and .15" of QPF (perhaps a bit higher in upslope favored areas) as low level moisture feed will have trouble establishing into such a dry antecedent airmass. Air will be warm enough for rain all areas with plenty of warmth aloft. Colder installments thru the end of the week with next shortwave slated for later Fri with chc showers from NW to SE later in the day, ushering in next fortified shot of chill in a steadily declining temp regime into the weekend.
The longwave pattern will actually favor recoiling heights northward quickly behind the shortwave on Fri as Srn Canada upper low is absorbed into deepening very strong polar vortex near the pole. But left behind in fast westerly flow will be new energy ejecting from the Aleutian low, and this will help to maintain cool flow sfc and aloft into New Eng until these cold shortwaves pass later in the weekend. Thereafter, strong Pacific energy will be trying to close off briefly over the Midwest, and while it may not live long, it will lower heights enough for energy continuing to shoot east from the strengthening Aleutian low - feeding off southward seeping energy from the polar vortex - into this new developing trough. This feed of air from polar vortex to Aleutian low to Intermountain region will assist in longwave retrogression, with trough settling to our west, and putting NewEng in developing deep SW flow. This sets up a pattern that will favor both warmth, and rainfall into NewEng for the first half of November, with the warmth coming on by next Mon/Tue, and the moisture not too far behind - likely a decent rain event MidAtl to Northeast mid to late next week as energy continues to eject from base of new trof, carrying Pacific subtropical moisture and tapping Gulf moisture. Though this results in building northeast warmth thru the first two weeks of November, winter lovers should not lose hope here, as the retrogression will cease and the weather pattern become a bit more progressive by the latter half of the month, largely thanks to a super-ridge to develop across the Nrn Pacific, eventually dislodging both the energy and cold out of Alaska while NewEng warmth should serve as fuel for pumping heights to our east and building a rather impressive block over Greenland the latter half of the month.
So, in the short term we see cold persisting and in fact providing one of our cooler shots thus far for the upcoming weekend - likely to be accompanied by at least some upslope snows - before we see our pattern shift to warmth, then wet and warm...all perhaps en route to a different second half of November.
In the meantime, ski resorts should be able to take advantage of good snowmaking weather most nights except Tue Ngt of this week, through Mon Ngt of next week. Make the most of it if you want to get the early start on the season, as you'll need a base that can survive only occasional snowmaking capabilities Nov 7 thru 14.
Matt
