WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT TO FOLLOW MILD END OF WEEK
FLOODING RAINS, DAMAGING WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL POSSIBILITIES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND

MIDWEEK BREAK TO BE FOLLOWED BY INTENSE BUT SHORT-LIVED BAND OF RAIN AND WIND TO END MILD STREAK

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

FYI:  All Tsunami Watches and Warnings were discontinued this morning after a magnitude 8.1 (estimated) earthquake in the Kuril Islands of Russia - in the Northwestern Pacific - prompted concern from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.  If you would like a direct link to the infomation, click here.

No changes today to the overall weather pattern, which is still slated to bring an end to our two week stretch of above to much above normal temperatures in New England with a reconfiguration that will bring better news for ski areas.  Temperatures cold enough for making snow should return to New England this weekend, and a few mountains will see some natural snow showers, as well.

Widespread Wednesday morning clouds continue to slowly break up through the day, promising more widespread sunny breaks than were seen on Tuesday, when sun and milder temperatures were confined to the immediate coastline of Northern MA, and most of Southeast MA.  Though plenty of moisture remains in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere on Wednesday, the combination of drier air aloft and a weak mixing of the atmosphere will continue to erode clouds enough for widespread sunny breaks across New England, though enough moisture remains present in the North Country for many clouds to fill back in Wednesday afternoon, keeping temperatures a bit cooler as a result.

A vigorous storm is brewing over the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday, however, launching tropical moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeastern United States, where some severe weather is likely this afternoon.  This new moisture adds to an already Pacific-moist system that dumped heavy rain and snow to the Northwestern U.S. on Monday and brought overnight windswept snows to the Central Plains Tuesday night.  After plowing through the Southeast, this storm will curl northward, poised to deliver a shot of tropical moisture to New England once again.  The slow movement of this storm is likely to hold substantial rainfall to our west through most of the day Thursday.  It's important to keep in mind, however, that - like our previous surges of warmth and moisture - there will likely be several surges of new moisture.  The result will be scattered showers pushing into the South Coast of New England Wednesday evening, then spreading north in scattered form overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning, lifting from Southern New England to Northern New England, separate from the main slug of moisture associated with the incoming storm.

The heaviest rainfall to move through New England associated with the next system will move through overnight Thursday night into Friday morning, and the commute is likely to be very difficult Friday morning.  This band of heavy rain will be accompanied by strong winds aloft and is likely to bring at least some gusty winds to the surface, especially in thunderstorms that develop where wind gusts to over 50 mph may result.  With the band of rain, thunder and wind relatively quick-moving, however, gradual clearing is expected Friday afternoon as drier and cooler air pours into New England.  This will be the beginning of a new jet stream pattern that will feature a trough - or dip - in the jet stream winds over New England, returning the six-state region to a near or below normal temperature pattern after two weeks of above to much above normal temperatures.  Though this will not be a bona fide, long-lasting and well-defined cool pattern - lasting only until Wednesday of next week - it's enough so that ski areas should plan on making hay while the sun shines, so to speak, as snowmaking conditions should be good for this window of time.  In fact, while most of New England sees a brisk blend of clouds and sun on Saturday, northern mountains may be graced with snow showers from time to time.

After next Wednesday, an oscillating pattern is expected - that is, temperatures averaging near normal with warmups ahead of each disturbance and shots of cool air behind them.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion:  Updated Wednesday, November 15 at 2:25 PM

Short term fcst to carry pulsing showers fed by low level tropical inflow northward from SCoast of NewEng thru remainder of area overnight Wed Ngt.  Combo of mostly cloudy skies and active S wind at sfc and moreover a few thousand feet off the ground will inhibit cooling and overnight low temps will be remarkably mild, with 50s in many Srn NewEng cities - evidence provided by mid 50s Tds as of this writing.  Tho KBOS is unlikely to stay above 59 degrees overnight Wed Ngt, KCON record warm min temp is 51 from 1960 and a new warm min may be set tonight.  KCAR is within one degree of record high of 56 as of this writing.

Expect any light showers early Thu caused by combo of low level WAA and PVA with vort moving from S to N to wane as NVA sets in for most of the day and brings drier air to the midlvls, and breaks of sun shud result for a time.  Wind will strengthen along SCoast first, then across most of NewEng by later Thu as pressure gradient tightens between 1024-1026 mb high S of Nova Scotia and 988 mb low over OH.  Intense llvl jet at 850 mb will be to our W across PA/NY and this is where heaviest flooding rains will fall on Thu.

Trend continues to be slower with the upper low but this shud not be too surprising, as it is truly a continuation of the pattern we've already been dealing with.  Two weeks ago we saw a similar scenario with our upper low originally looking as though it would deliver a solid chunk of cold but then backing farther and farther west until finally it was evident it would be unable to pull deep cold this far east.  With an Ensemble longwave pattern forecast of pulling the upper low to James Bay by Friday evening and a new strong shortwave coming thru the NW US at the same time, while amplified ridge axis peaks over Ern Canada and Maritimes, it's simply not possible to pull the upper low far enough east to deliver a formidable shot of deep cold to NewEng.

But that doesn't mean we're not looking at cold enough conditions for snow making in the mountains once again, and that also doesn't mean the above to much above normal pattern rolls on, as shallow cold is still cold nonetheless, even if there is no monster high to drive it south, and this will make for chilly nights and cool days.  That said, there may be more than one devil in the details with regard to the weekend forecast, as the longwave pattern indicates there should be little comfort for NewEng forecasters.  Tho Sat features a break between systems as the upper low recoils a bit into SCentral Canada, this recoiling will yank shortwaves down from the active Pacific flow and they will round the base of the trof - the first rounding the trof base in the OH Valley Sat ngt and ejecting NE.  This shortwave will move over NewEng late Sat Ngt or more likely on Sun.  Those of you who read regularly know that I find the upper level RH field to be a very telling sign of what may follow in surface trends, largely because it is devoid of low level baroclinicity, which can certainly be a driving factor, but in this instance will largely be determined by the upper level flow.  Not only is the 12Z NAM picking up on this upper level RH extending northward toward NewEng, but it would make sense that if we're banking on the upper level flow being sluggish we should also bank on the low level baroclinic zone not shifting as far east as forecasted by the guidance currently.  This raises concern for precip Sat Ngt into Sun, esp early Sun with the passage of the vort max overhead.  This introduces an event of low forecastabillity thanks to the variation between expected longwave pattern and forecasted results at the surface by the guidance, but instinct says be cautious and introduce a chance of precip for at least early Sun and have adjusted fcst accordingly as of this writing.

But this isn't the end of the story, as the Pacific NW shortwave mentioned earlier in this disc will traverse the Nrn Plains and then drop into the base of the trof in the OH valley, like its predecessor, and will force the longwave trof to tilt neutrally Mon, likely prompting low pressure development at the Mid-Atl coast.  Mon Ngt into Tue, this surface low will be captured by the upper level support, and the low will attempt to stack vertically.  This introduces tremendous uncertainty with regard to where and when this interaction of vertical circulations takes place, and this uncertainty is reflected in Ensemble spread, as well, though it's worth noting that some GFS Ensemble members and ECMWF Ensemble members paint moderate precip onto Ern NewEng while Canadian Members miss and keep precip offshore.  Of course, my thoughts on precip forecasts with such an uncertain pattern at such a long forecast period is that they should be taken with a grain of salt, and the message we're getting from the longwave pattern is far more important.

As for Sergio...strengthening off the western coast of Mexico...indications are that his moisture will filter rather than surge over the next several days, as it's tugged both northward by the intense Pacific disturbances, and eastward as these systems strengthen in the OH and TN valleys, so rather than a rapid integration, a slow feed of fuel from the system is more likely.

While colder air will undoubtedly bleed into NewEng under the belly of the large upper low by James Bay, and a more significant chunk of surface cold may wrap south behind any disturbances Sat Ngt/Sun and then again later Mon/Tue, without a mechanism to hold this cold into NewEng, average temp regime is likely to return to near or somewhat above normal by middle of next week, though not by nearly as much as the past two weeks, still bringing cool enuf nights for snowmaking and returning us to an oscillating pattern of warmth ahead of shortwaves and brief shots of shallow cool behind them.

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Matt