TWO TROPICALLY-INFUSED STORMS TO AFFECT NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK
MIDWEEK BREAK TO BE FOLLOWED BY INTENSE BUT SHORT-LIVED BAND OF RAIN AND WIND TO END MILD STREAK

WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT TO FOLLOW MILD END OF WEEK

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is [email protected].  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

After a two week stretch of above to much above normal temperatures in New England, changes are in the offing as the weather pattern reconfigures heading into the upcoming weekend, meaning better news for ski areas who - at this point - would be thrilled just to get temperatures cold enough for making snow.  That air will return to New England this weekend.

In the meantime, a the same slow-moving, tropically-infused storm that's been spinning parallel to the Eastern Seaboard since the weekend will make its move northward and cross New England on Tuesday.  While this low pressure center has been spinning bands of rain into New England on the north side of its circulation, the south side of the storm has consistently been producing a swath of sunshine and very mild temperatures.  After the passage of morning showers and downpours - even a few thunderstorms in the deeper tropical air on Cape Cod - this pocket of drier air will follow the storm center on Tuesday as it moves northward across Eastern Massachusetts, and thanks to the tropical origin of the air embedded in this storm, temperatures will respond very quickly to sunshine, boosting into the 60s and even perhaps near 70 in parts of Eastern Massachusetts.  The trick to this scenario, however, is that a little sun goes a long way and whoever doesn't see sun, simply doesn't see the quick temperature rebound.  With cooler and somewhat drier air in place across most of New England, this will mean most of New England remains cloudy and cool, with what will likely be a sharp western line to the sunny breaks, likely set up somewhere near Interstate 495 in Eastern MA.  The overall trend certainly will be for showers to end in Southern New England by midday Tuesday, however, with bands of rain breaking up to scattered showers in Northern New England, though bands of heavy and locally flooding rains will continue in Maine through most of the day.  In these heavier rain bands, localized flooding of streets and small streams will be possible, and though winds will be gusty at the coastline, I'd be surprised to see anything damaging.

Even in areas of Eastern Southern New England where clouds may break up for a time, a moist near-surface airmass will allow clouds to redevelop Tuesday night, along with a few areas of fog, while showers taper across Maine.  With a break in the action to begin Wednesday, most early clouds will give way to emerging sunshine in Southern New England, though Northern Mountains are likely to see more clouds than sun through most of the day.  As we approach afternoon on Wednesday, however, another upper level disturbance will move from southwest to northeast across New England - much weaker than its predecessors and devoid of moisture in comparison, but still strong enough to crank out a few showers across New England Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

When we examine the bigger picture today - outside of the Northeast - a series of strong jet stream disturbances are evident from the Rocky Mountains to the Upper Midwest.  These disturbances are quite energetic, and as they converge to develop a strengthening surface storm, moisture will once again be tapped from the Gulf of Mexico, adding to an already Pacific-moist system that dumped heavy rain and snow to the Northwestern U.S. on Monday.  The result will be severe thunderstorms across the Southeastern United States Wednesday afternoon before this storm curls northward, poised to deliver a shot of tropical moisture to New England once again.  The trend with this storm has been to slow it upon approach, and this is likely to hold substantial rainfall to our west through most of the day Thursday.  It's important to keep in mind that - like our previous surges of warmth and moisture - there will likely be several surges of new moisture.  The result will be showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, lifting from Southern New England to Northern New England, separate from the main slug of moisture associated with the incoming storm.

The heaviest rainfall to move through New England associated with the next system will move through overnight Thursday night into Friday morning, and the commute is likely to be very difficult Friday morning.  This band of heavy rain will be accompanied by strong winds aloft and is likely to bring at least some gusty winds to the surface, especially in thunderstorms that develop, but will be relatively quick-moving, leaving drier and cooler air pouring into New England later Friday.  This will be the beginning of a new jet stream pattern that will feature a trough - or dip - in the jet stream winds over New England, returning the six-state region to a near or below normal temperature pattern after two weeks of above to much above normal temperatures.  Though this will not be a bona fide, long-lasting and well-defined cool pattern - lasting only until Wednesday of next week - it's enough so that ski areas should plan on making hay while the sun shines, so to speak, as snowmaking conditions should be good for this window of time.  In fact, while most of New England sees a brisk blend of clouds and sun on Saturday, northern mountains may be graced with snow showers from time to time.

After next Wednesday, an oscillating pattern is expected - that is, temperatures averaging near normal with warmups ahead of each disturbance and shots of cool air behind them.

Matt