Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
A progressive storm will march across Southern New England at the surface on Tuesday, though the upper level energy driving this storm development will swing from Upstate New York to the Northern border of New England through the day. With the deep feed of tropical moisture already east of New England, little significant precipitation will fall aside from drizzle in Southern and Central New England, though the upper level disturbance will spawn new areas of rain and snow in Northern New England later Tuesday.
Rain fell heavily at times Christmas night across Southern New England, briefly mixing with snow for some areas at the onset, while Northern New England remained just barely on the cool side of a marginally cold airmass to support snowfall. This meant a heavy, wet snow across the North, with a few inches in most higher terrain locales but a very sloppy slush for many areas. Dick Sharron, one of our weather observers in Glen, NH, reported 2" of snow, but nearly half an inch of liquid equivalent in that snow - that's sloppy stuff! With temperatures hovering near or just above freezing for most of the North Country Tuesday afternoon, the approaching upper level disturbance that will serve as the second half of this storm will bring a mix of rain and snow, heavy at times, but the continued wet and sloppy nature of the snow will mean less accumulation than one would normally anticipate - probably only a few additional inches in the higher terrain. Additionally, the marginal temperatures will mean most road treatments work well today, though heavier bursts of snow may cover up roadways from time to time with a greasy slush.
Farther south, through the remainder of New England, temperatures will be heavily dependent upon where one is in relation to a wave of low pressure rippling across Southeastern New England - to the south of the track, places like Cape Cod and the South Coast have seen very mild air resulting in very thick fog. North of the storm path, a cool northeast flow will maintain areas of drizzle, some fog, and cool temperatures. Drizzle and a few light showers are all that's expected, however, thanks to very dry air moving overhead several thousand feet in elevation. This dry air will make most of the clouds over Southern and Central New England too shallow to produce widespread significant precipitation.
By Tuesday night, colder winds will blow from the northwest, and this will result in "upslope flow", where air flows up the Western slopes of the Green and White Mountains, forcing the air upward, resulting in clouds and precipitation, which is why I'd expect snow to linger along these mountain slopes through Tuesday night, with some additional accumulation as the sun sets and temperatures cool, allowing a few inches to accumulate in higher terrain of Northern New England Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Elsewhere, a few flurries are possible with the onset of colder air, though for the most part a drying trend will begin Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday and Thursday - two chilly and breezy days with a blend of sun and clouds ahead of the center of another cool Canadian high pressure center.
By late in the week, this cool fair weather cell will merge with another, larger bubble of high pressure moving over the Mid-Atlantic coastline, and this will mean a possible slight moderation in temperatures for Friday, though a cool northwest wind flow is still likely to persist. By next weekend, another energetic upper level disturbance will be ejecting east after churning across the Rockies and Plains, resulting in another swath of moisture pluming out of the Gulf of Mexico and thereby bringing another likelihood of rain - perhaps mountain snow if cool air can hold on long enough and especially in the mountains of the North - though not until after what is likely to be a dry day Saturday as a slow-moving ridge of high pressure begrudgingly lets go of the Northeast.
Technical Discussion: None today.
Matt
