Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
The migration of arctic air has been intriguing to watch over the past couple of weeks, and will have an impact on our weather for weeks to come. For the first half of the winter, New England was exposed to cold air only in quick bursts - northwest wind carrying cold southward from Quebec and Ontario. But this cold air was well-established in Canada and now, after a period of a few weeks of repetitive cold, the source of cold air has settled south into Northern New England, where deep cold will remain present for the next couple of weeks, and will ensure that plenty of cold air is available for the remainder of New England, as well, which would serve important when more moisture becomes involved in our weather pattern.
For the timebeing, yet another storm is cranking up just southeast of New England on Monday, and yet another storm has dealt a "close but no cigar" shave to New Englanders. The satellite presentation of this storm is very impressive as it cranks up over open waters, but it is progressive and will continue to scream northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. Left behind has been a very weak trough - showing some characteristics of the "Norlun Trough" I discussed in length last week - draped over Cape Cod. In short, this is a weak disturbance that represents a shift in wind direction, and can serve to focus moisture into very localized squalls. This has been the case over Cape Cod Monday morning, with some ocean enhancement as cold air streams across relatively warm ocean waters, bringing bursts of 1" per hour snows Monday morning to the Outer Cape, and resulting in a few fluffy inches from Hyannis to Provincetown! As the developing ocean storm steams away and winds increase from the northwest, this weak Norlun Trough also will shift east, leaving increasing sunshine for even the Outer Cape by late Monday. Elsewhere, sunshine has already been on the increase and will help to counteract the cold northwest winds that will keep temperatures below Sunday's noticeably milder readings. With wind gusts to over 25 mph factored in, wind chill values will run close to 20 south, and close to 10 above zero north.
On the water, I want to take a moment to acknowledge that it was an apparently tragic weekend off the coast of Southern New England, when the New Bedford based fishing vessel "Lady of Grace" capsized in Nantucket Sound. The boat was found at the bottom of a 36 foot deep area of the Sound, and tragically what is believed to have been the only life raft was still attached to the boat. Whether this was a result of freezing spray or not will be determined by an ongoing investigation, but certainly this helps to outline the dangers of freezing spray for our dedicated New England fishermen and women who brave the conditions daily. For those who are landlubbers and not aware of this phenomenon, freezing spray occurs when wave action causes ocean water to spray skyward, splashing onto boats and - due to very cold air - freezing on contact. We also saw sea smoke this weekend - fog that develops above the warm ocean in bitter arctic air, and this, too, provides droplets of water that will freeze on surfaces. The result can be caked ice on structures such as boats, and can serve to weigh a vessel down, making it top-heavy. Today on the waters of New England, light freezing spray is still a possibility, but nothing near what was experienced in the windy arctic blast that began the weekend. My thoughts are with the family and friends of the Lady of Grace crew, and I want the marine community to know that my support is always with you.
Part of what's been churning our seas so vigorously, and so relentlessly, has been the very same weather pattern that's been frustrating New England snow lovers. That is, we've transitioned to a pattern that continues to deliver air that's just cold enough, and much more importantly, just dry enough to keep deep moisture to our south. This has meant one storm after the next passing south of New Englnad, with the counterclockwise flow of wind around each storm center hurling ocean swell coastward, while prevailing offshore winds closer to New England add chop. This has meant several ocean storms - and very few coastal storms - over the past few weeks.
In the immediate future, there's no evidence this will change, though the next few weeks will bring a gradual shift toward a pattern favoring higher frequency of storms. For now, the chilly and dry blast of air on Monday will continue the trend of emerging sunshine, eventually even reaching the freshly snow-blanketed Outer Cape. With temperatures in the 20s south and teens north, and winds sustained from the northwest at 15-25 mph, wind chill values will drop to around 20 south and around 10 north. Expect a relatively quiet night Monday night as New England sits between weather systems.
Tuesday will dawn quiet and cold, though a slow-moving and weak storm crawling east out of the Great Lakes will eventually spread increasing clouds over New England later Tuesday. In the mountains of Northern and Western New England, a few flurries are likely from time to time Tuesday afternoon, with scattered snow showers a better bet across New England Tuesday night. Even still, there will continue to be a separation between energy and moisture - with energy diving in from the west and north, and deep moisture locked south of New England. There are signs the two will interact just in time to bring enhanced snow showers to the South Coast late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, though given the recent pattern, there's reason to doubt how much that really will amount to. Nonetheless, communities hit with overnight snow showers will find enough snow coating to make roads slick in a few spots.
By Wednesday, any early snow showers will give way to another break in the action and another brief shot of cool air that will last into Thursday, though not nearly as cold as this past weekend's arctic blast that kept temperatures in the teens. Our next chance of snow would come Thursday night into Friday with yet another disturbance racing across New England, and at this point it's still somewhat uncertain as to just how quickly this disturbance would develop, and once again it looks like most of the action would remain south of New England.
Of more potential is the following disturbance, slated for later Friday into Saturday. There are a few strong signatures with this setup - including a strong available energetic disturbance and indications of a new strong surge of cold behind the storm, indicating a strengthening circulation - but we've seen a few favorable setups for storms at four and five days out already this year that have failed to materialize to more than light and in a few cases locally moderate snowfalls, so I have to admit that from five days out I'm hesitant to jump all over this potential, but will continue to watch it.
What I can tell you is that the second and third weeks of February will bring a shift in the pattern that will result in shrinking the overall coverage of deep cold over the Lower 48, but will also help to nudge the axis of coldest air west just a bit, over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, which would allow moisture to stream northward over the Eastern Seaboard. In essence, this should theoretically allow for the storms that have been blasting off just off the coastline the past few weeks to begin taking off near or over the coastline as we round the corner into February. This is something worth watching.
For what it's worth, I was skiing this weekend in New Hampshire and the conditions were fantastic, and reports from ALL New England states are just as stellar. Anyone considering not skiing because of fear of conditions is worried for no reason - the man-made conditions are amazing and worth the trip. No, I'm not being paid by the ski areas to say it - just a long-time New England skier who loves to share the news!
Have a great start to your week.
Matt
Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Monday, January 29 at 1:30 PM
Cape Cod squalls began as Eastern MA snow showers along trof - showing some weak evidence of Norlun characteristics earlier today with instabililty above trof, though losing those characteristics now - and primary mechanism now appears to be ocean enhancement. Most accumulation is done with this band after some localized rates around Chatham approaching 1"/hr early Mon AM. Drier air evidenced across remainder of NewEng is coupling with downsloping flow for decent sun.
Though I don't expect all clouds to dissipate Monday night with one vort max pivoting across the Canadian border and another sliding east-northeast out of Upstate NY. Ci deck likely to come in ahead of latter vort from midnight onward, though at the sfc winds will slacken. NMM coming on board in its 12Z run with the outlier 00Z WRF solution of blossoming precip field last-minute over far Srn NewEng Tue eve and overnight Tue ngt. It truly is a remarkable and challenging pattern we remain in, as frequent vort maxes need only moisture to thrive, but have by and large been devoid of that moisture, as is the case with today's impressive looking storm that sails southeast of NewEng and into the Canadian Maritimes. This certainly can leave one feeling gunshy, which is probably a very good idea in the medium range period, though in the short range the details become a bit easier to distinguish. This was the case with the Sun Ngt/Mon disturbance - appearing to have decent potential on Fri AM, but quickly becoming apparent it would be of little sensible consequence by Sat's guidance products. In this case - for Tue ngt's disturbance - the setup is one that actually is favorable for "surprise" snow in Southern NewEng, though I suppose that's a bit of a misnomer for me to use considering we're examining the potential together here. Nonetheless, we have a southern stream disturbance that, by itself, would sail south of NewEng once again. The delicate twist here is a very weak northern stream disturbance riding parallel and coming E out of NY State by Tue eve that will provide dynamic lift over Southern NewEng, and looks as though it will induce just enough sfc cyclogenesis to develop good boundary layer positive theta-e advection Tue eve into Tue ngt. Farther aloft there is less indication of this cyclone, but with an ocean sitting to our south and east, all we really need to do is get some sort of a south or east component around even a weak center to pull in enuf moisture to interact with the expanding dynamic lift. These were the reasons I kept a chance of snow in for Tue Ngt in the AM forecast today, tho it's interesting to see that the NMM/GFS/GGEM/RGEM/WRF are all now on-board with measurable precip for the time period. This is truly, yet again, another very delicate scenario as just a bit less development jeopardizes the moisture influx in the boundary layer, but for now it's certainly trending in a more moist - and therefore whiter - direction. Total accums would likely not be significant, but in a snow-starved winter, even a few inches can go a long way.
Later down the line, another vort slides thru Thu Ngt, and then another Fri Ngt, it would appear, and either of these hold potential, with the latter of more interest. Perhaps we will delve into this tomorrow or Wednesday. For today, I'm out of time.
Matt
