Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
Reminder: The podcast and written discussion are now being posted separately, for those of you who subscribe to either or both of the feeds to easily decipher between podcasts, issued relatively early in the morning, and the written discussion, which comes around late-morning most days.
After a spring snow that fell heavily in parts of Southeastern New England for a few hours on Monday night, dropping over one inch per hour snows for localized accumulations of nearly 4", temperatures warmed for awhile heading into Tuesday morning. This enabled the wet, sloppy snow to begin a quick meltdown in the lingering mild air ahead of a strong cold front pushing southward out of Canada. Though cold air will move back into New England Tuesday through midweek, much milder air continues to sit across the Central United States, resulting in a dramatic difference in temperature across the nation as is often the case in March.
Even here in New England, this battle of seasonal airmasses and increasingly strong sun angle on the Vernal Equinox is evident, with sunshine and lingering warmth boosting Cape Cod to near 50 for a time on Tuesday while residents in the opposite corner of New England - the Champlain Valley - have seen Tuesday snow showers and bitter northwest winds. These northwest winds will continue pushing cold air southward out of Canada and across the Northeast through Tuesday and Tuesday night, gusting up to 40 mph at times Tuesday afternoon and creating a blustery feel. Not only is the air cold, but also dry, and this means sunshine will contribute to a bright day, making for areas of glare on the roads where a fresh snow lines the roadsides for some, and melting snow creates glistening wet roads for many!
The center of Canadian high pressure will drift southeast Tuesday night, poised to move directly over New England on Wednesday. The nature of this fair weather cell ensures cold and dry air will linger in New England on Wednesday, meaning more sunshine, and since high pressure cells represent areas of sinking air and light wind, most of Wednesday will be rather calm. Of course, in the world of weather it's very hard to displace one airmass without any wind, and this means any return of milder air to New England will have to wait until after the high pressure system drifts by and its clockwise flow of air around its center allows for a returning southwest flow of air. Meanwhile, a new and very potent disturbance will make its way off the Pacific and into the West Coast of the U.S. This disturbance will pull cold air southward with it, carving out a trough in the jet stream winds aloft across the Western third of the nation, and thereby forcing the bubble of warmer air over the Central United States to break east and move toward the Northeast. By Wednesday night into Thursday, I expect rising overnight temperatures as the northern periphery of this bubble of warmth pushes into New Enlgand, prompting rain showers south and snow showers north during the overnight Wednesday night. These showers will mark a battle of airmasses as cold air will be hesitant to depart, and incoming warmth eager to move in. The result will likely be lots of clouds and areas of fog lingering with a few showers leftover Thursday morning. The biggest question for Thursday is whether we could break through the clouds to bring out sunshine, and the stakes are high because with such a mild airmass in place, just a little bit of sunshine would go a long way. At this point, it appears as though the combination of dry air aloft and a west-southwest wind near the ground will favor bringing sunshine out and poking holes in the clouds Thursday, thereby allowing temperatures to warm handily in Southern and perhaps Central New England with a gusty southwest wind. Fighting a warm-up will be the presence of snow in many areas from this weekend's storm and only gradual meltoff, but an active wind would help to "mix" the atmosphere, largely offsetting the effects of snowpack, though Northern New England is likely to stay cooler.
Meanwhile, the disturbance that pushed into the West Coast midweek will have broken into two pieces, with one chunk of significant energy diving south across the Southwestern United States - dipping so far south it separates from the storm-steering winds of the jet stream for a time - and the northern chunk of energy racing east across the Northern Tier of the nation, steered by those fast moving jet stream winds. In fact, the trend with this system has been to speed it up, bringing showers back into New England later Thursday and perhaps very early Friday, but swinging the front south of even Southern New England for most of Friday, allowing cooler and drier air to drain southward to end our workweek. Though this air would battle back against the spring warmth that will be in place Thursday and Thursday night, it won't be a sudden onslaught of cold, and instead we'd still be likely to find temperatures running slightly above normal Friday afternoon, provided there is indeed ample sunshine.
Behind the cold front, shallow cool air will settle south out of Canada for the start of next weekend, and likely stick around through Sunday, though a strong northern stream disturbance will have us on guard for showers, especially Saturday night and Sunday. Thereafter, the last week of March looks as though it will end on a mild note, as a broad ridge of high pressure crests over the Eastern half of the nation, bringing moderating temperatures that will land above normal to finish the month.
Have a great Tuesday!
Technical Discussion: None today.
Matt
