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FANTASTIC WEATHER EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

A quick discussion in this unusually quiet weather pattern.

Winds have shifted to blow from the west, rather than the northwest, allowing cold air to retreat just slightly.  This west wind will be the prevailing wind direction on Friday in advance of another approaching cold front from Southern Canada, and temperatures will warm with the combination of this new wind direction, relinquishing cold, and another dose of significant sunshine.  Adding to most of New England's potential for warming will be a "downsloping" wind - a wind that slopes down the hills and mountains, compressed as it descends (owing to higher atmospheric pressure at lower altitudes) and undergoing both warming and drying as a result of that compression.  The combination of slightly milder air, sunshine, and this downsloping flow will push some Southern New England locales over 60 degrees for the final day of the work week.  Meanwhile, a cold front will be settling southward out of Quebec, representing yet another installment of cool and dry air from the sprawling Canadian high pressure cell.  With such dry air already in place, the only areas that may see a shower with the passage of this front Friday afternoon would be north-facing mountainslopes of the North Country where air will be forced upward a bit more vigorously as the incoming wind shift encounters high terrain, but most of us will find only a period of clouds later Friday marking the passage of the front.

Behind the front, cool and dry air will take residence through the weekend, bringing beautiful spring weather through most of the weekend.  By later Sunday, the dry air will break down gradually, but steadilly, resulting in thickening clouds and the likelihood for showers to develop later in the day.  Rain will move across New England Sunday night into early Monday with one low pressure center passing to our north, and another to our south.  There will be at least a pocket of mild air following this disturbance for a 24-48 hour window, but it will only come after the disturbance moves through, and is available only for a limited time before another shot of cool air comes in.  What I'm getting at here is that Monday's high temperatures may range greatly, from 30s in Maine to 50s or maybe even 60s in Connecticut, depending upon how quickly this disturbance exits and the milder air moves in, with many areas likely to land in the 40s and 50s even after lingering rain ends early Monday, as clouds and an onshore flow may linger for awhile.  By Tuesday, milder air will attempt to ride through New England, but this comes during a closing window as a new cold front steadily moves east, destined to bring a shot of cool air back for midweek.

Technical Discussion:  None today.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Monday, March 26 at 1:15 PM

Clouds and precip come courtesy of isentropic lift coupled with leading vort max ahead of primary vort moving across Great Lakes. First vort max brought multiple CG lightning strikes even tho light rain for a time, then the boundary layer moistened.  We're in a similar situation tho without the lightning for Nrn NewEng as I write, which makes sense given decreased llvl speed convergence and decreasing theta-e gradient.  Still, as air becomes more saturated, elevated instability increases and Wrn NewEng may see thunder before the day is out.  Farther south, slug of warm and moist advection has been less focused thus far but still will be sufficient to generate sct shra and then dynamic lift assoc with and ahead of main vort max this eve and tonight will be enuf to generate widespread shra, downpours and isolated tsra perhaps from Wrn MA to CT.  Wind shift early Tue truly is a trof rather than a cold front at its leading edge, tho I suppose technically it's still a cold front, just with the temp gradient lagging far behind.  The airmass change is lax in coming south because it must wait for the eastward movement of the high over Hudson Bay, which happens but not until later.  This actually means the passage of the wind shift favors more warming than otherwise in Srn NewEng as winds turn from the northwest and downsloping kicks in, warming many locales of Srn NewEng into the 70s as this downsloping helps to break up deck enuf for sun.  I know RH progs are very high, but that's similar to what we're seeing upstream in OH Valley today and tho clouds are numerous, sunshine is effective and temps have been soaring.  We're likely to see the same result in Srn NewEng on Tue afternoon after morning fog and low clouds that will be stubborn, with deck hanging until late morning when wind shift kicks in a bit.  Still, we're looking at a wind shift line/front that doesn't completely clear Srn NewEng, and a few extremely weak mesoscale waves of low pressure will develop along it.  This slight lowering of pressure, along with the warming interior, is likely to favor a sea breeze for almost all Southern NewEng coastal locales, whereas BOS may not get over 56 or so degrees before the sea breeze initiates, while LWM hits 70.  A bit trickier on the SCoast of CT where GON may go to 62 or so and then fall back, but stronger NW gradient flow in HVN argues for mid 70s!  Weak vort max Tue afternoon/eve may spark a thunderstorm in CT with sfc based LIs approaching 0.

Wed thru Fri brings installment of fresh, clean, dry and cool Canadian air.  High amplitude pattern flow suggests quick warming on Sat, and perhaps several degrees above normal, before rain event to end the weekend and cooler air to begin April.

Matt

PODCAST: FANTASTIC WEATHER EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the main homepage, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

Or, you can open ITunes.  Under "Advanced," select "Subscribe to Podcast." For the URL, copy and paste this: http://www.mattnoyes.net/matt_noyes_weather_blog/rss.xml

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3

DRY AIR, GUSTY WINDS TEAM UP TO PRODUCE HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOME

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

The coolest and windiest day of the bunch will be in New England on Thursday, as we remain under the influence of a huge high pressure cell that extends though nearly all of the Canadian Province of Quebec, southward to the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline.  A slight rebound of mild air is expected on Friday, then a reinforcing surge of cool and dry air will be in place for most of the upcoming weekend.

This dry Canadian air is quite protective for the Northeastern United States, as the clockwise flow of air around the sprawling area of high pressure in Eastern Canada  is keeping deep spring warmth, moisture, and Pacific energy at bay.  To our west, across the nation's midsection, the intersection of cool, warm and moist air all created an amazing spectacle of severe thunderstorms along and ahead of a sluggish cold front, spawning 65 reports of tornadoes stretched from Texas to Nebraska on Wednesday, sadly resulting in two fatalities in Oklahoma.  For the next few days, flooding rains and bouts of severe weather will continue to plague the Central United States, a snowstorm will move through the Eastern Rockies of Wyoming, while New England remains fair and dry, thanks to continued northwesterly flow deep through the atmosphere.

Our large and protective fair weather center, like all high pressure cells in the Northern Hemisphere, has air flowing clockwise around its center, and this means a northerly and northwesterly wind across New England in advance of it.  Further increasing wind speed is the squeeze between this high pressure center, and a strong low pressure center (storm) located in extreme Eastern Canada - a difference in atmospheric pressure means a consistent motion of air, and this setup will contribute to gusts of up to 45 mph Thursday afternoon.  Winds of this force are capable of downing a few small tree limbs and branches, perhaps resulting in an isolated power outage, but are more likely to blow around small objects like trash cans and other loose items that you'll want to secure if you don't feel like hunting them down in the neighbor's yard!  The cool nature of our Canadian airmass will team with these winds to produce widespread wind chill values in the 40s - a brisk day for one and all - though the strong late March sun angle will make for a delightful day if you're reading this from a windowed office or you'll be out driving, sheltered from the wind.  Wind combined with the dry nature of this air - relative humidity values of below 20 percent in some spots - will have an extremely strong drying effect across New England.  One of these effects is felt on the body - have you noticed your skin drying out and a few more static electric shocks lately?  Though we don't often think about a cool spring day as an important day to be hydrated, the air on a day like today is drier than it is during the summer months, and though the body may not be sweating profusely, this airmass will take the water right out of us - keep the liquids coming!  In addition to the body, the combination of dry air, sunshine and fast winds are also taking any water right out of vegetation on the ground, allowing dead vegetation from last growing season to become dry and brittle.  Active winds provide a good exchange of air from the ground to a few thousand feet in the sky, and in combination with dry ground cover, this can serve as good fuel for fires, and fire danger is high for the second day in a row Thursday for non-snowcovered locales of Southern New England and Eastern New England, from Eastern Maine through Eastern Massachusetts to the South Coast of Connecticut.

A dry airmass warms quickly with the help of sunshine, but also cools quickly when sunshine is removed.  We saw this phenomenon Wednesday night, and will see it again Thursday night to a lesser  extent as winds shift to blow from the west, rather than the northwest, allowing cold air to retreat just slightly.  This west wind will be the prevailing wind direction on Friday in advance of another approaching cold front from Southern Canada, and temperatures will warm with the combination of this new wind direction, relinquishing cold, and another dose of significant sunshine.  Adding to most of New England's potential for warming will be a "downsloping" wind - a wind that slopes down the hills and mountains, compressed as it descends (owing to higher atmospheric pressure at lower altitudes) and undergoing both warming and drying as a result of that compression.  The combination of slightly milder air, sunshine, and this downsloping flow will push some Southern New England locales over 60 degrees for the final day of the work week.  Meanwhile, a cold front will be settling southward out of Quebec, representing yet another installment of cool and dry air from the sprawling Canadian high pressure cell.  With such dry air already in place, the only areas that may see a shower with the passage of this front Friday afternoon would be north-facing mountainslopes of the North Country where air will be forced upward a bit more vigorously as the incoming wind shift encounters high terrain, but most of us will find only a period of clouds later Friday marking the passage of the front.

Behind the front, cool and dry air will take residence through the weekend, bringing beautiful spring weather through most of the weekend.  By later Sunday, the dry air will break down gradually, but steadilly, resulting in thickening clouds and the likelihood for showers to develop later in the day.  Rain will move across New England Sunday night into early Monday with one low pressure center passing to our north, and another to our south.  There will be at least a pocket of mild air following this disturbance for a 24-48 hour window, but it will only come after the disturbance moves through, and is available only for a limited time before another shot of cool air comes in.  What I'm getting at here is that Monday's high temperatures may range greatly, from 30s in Maine to 50s or maybe even 60s in Connecticut, depending upon how quickly this disturbance exits and the milder air moves in, with many areas likely to land in the 40s and 50s even after lingering rain ends early Monday, as clouds and an onshore flow may linger for awhile.  By Tuesday, milder air will attempt to ride through New England, but this comes during a closing window as a new cold front steadily moves east, destined to bring a shot of cool air back for midweek.

Technical Discussion:  None today.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Monday, March 26 at 1:15 PM

Clouds and precip come courtesy of isentropic lift coupled with leading vort max ahead of primary vort moving across Great Lakes. First vort max brought multiple CG lightning strikes even tho light rain for a time, then the boundary layer moistened.  We're in a similar situation tho without the lightning for Nrn NewEng as I write, which makes sense given decreased llvl speed convergence and decreasing theta-e gradient.  Still, as air becomes more saturated, elevated instability increases and Wrn NewEng may see thunder before the day is out.  Farther south, slug of warm and moist advection has been less focused thus far but still will be sufficient to generate sct shra and then dynamic lift assoc with and ahead of main vort max this eve and tonight will be enuf to generate widespread shra, downpours and isolated tsra perhaps from Wrn MA to CT.  Wind shift early Tue truly is a trof rather than a cold front at its leading edge, tho I suppose technically it's still a cold front, just with the temp gradient lagging far behind.  The airmass change is lax in coming south because it must wait for the eastward movement of the high over Hudson Bay, which happens but not until later.  This actually means the passage of the wind shift favors more warming than otherwise in Srn NewEng as winds turn from the northwest and downsloping kicks in, warming many locales of Srn NewEng into the 70s as this downsloping helps to break up deck enuf for sun.  I know RH progs are very high, but that's similar to what we're seeing upstream in OH Valley today and tho clouds are numerous, sunshine is effective and temps have been soaring.  We're likely to see the same result in Srn NewEng on Tue afternoon after morning fog and low clouds that will be stubborn, with deck hanging until late morning when wind shift kicks in a bit.  Still, we're looking at a wind shift line/front that doesn't completely clear Srn NewEng, and a few extremely weak mesoscale waves of low pressure will develop along it.  This slight lowering of pressure, along with the warming interior, is likely to favor a sea breeze for almost all Southern NewEng coastal locales, whereas BOS may not get over 56 or so degrees before the sea breeze initiates, while LWM hits 70.  A bit trickier on the SCoast of CT where GON may go to 62 or so and then fall back, but stronger NW gradient flow in HVN argues for mid 70s!  Weak vort max Tue afternoon/eve may spark a thunderstorm in CT with sfc based LIs approaching 0.

Wed thru Fri brings installment of fresh, clean, dry and cool Canadian air.  High amplitude pattern flow suggests quick warming on Sat, and perhaps several degrees above normal, before rain event to end the weekend and cooler air to begin April.

Matt

PODCAST: DRY AIR, GUSTY WINDS TEAM UP TO PRODUCE HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOME

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the main homepage, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

Or, you can open ITunes.  Under "Advanced," select "Subscribe to Podcast." For the URL, copy and paste this: http://www.mattnoyes.net/matt_noyes_weather_blog/rss.xml

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3

STRETCH OF SUN TO EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND!

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

After a record-breaking warmth of 74 degrees in Bridgeport, Connecticut, on Tuesday, Wednesday winds have ushered cooler air back into New England.  Though temperature variation will be a part of the forecast in the coming days, the one near-constant between now and the weekend will be sunshine, and lots of it, with dry air firmly in place.

Temperatures actually fell for a time Wednesday morning as winds kicked up from the northwest, increasing pre-dawn in Northern New England, and over the course of the morning farther south.  This increase in wind comes as a sprawling area of high pressure - fair weather - located over Hudson Bay, Canada begins to move east.  This expansive fair weather center, like all high pressure cells in the Northern Hemisphere, has air flowing clockwise around its center, and this means a northerly and northwesterly wind across New England in advance of it.  Further increasing wind speed is the squeeze between this high pressure center, and a strong low pressure center (storm) located in extreme Eastern Canada - a difference in atmospheric pressure means a consistent motion of air, and this setup will contribute to gusts of up to 40 mph Wednesday afternoon.  These winds, blowing out of Eastern Canada, are responsible for carrying cooler and drier air southward.  The cool nature of the air brought the early morning drop in temperature, while the dry nature of the air has two effects: evaporating clouds that were in Southern New England early, and drying the landscape to allow dead vegetation from last growing season to become dry and brittle.  Combined with active winds and good exchange of air from the ground to a few thousand feet in the sky, this dry ground cover can serve as good fuel for fires, and fire danger is high on Wednesday afternoon for non-snowcovered locales of Southern New England.  Of course, the other obvious effect of dry air is to allow for plenty of sunshine, and that sun will battle back against the arrival of cool air to keep temperatures near normal for daily highs.

A dry airmass warms quickly with the help of sunshine, but also cools quickly when sunshine is removed.  So, after sunset expect temperatures to drop fairly quickly Wednesday Night, falling into the teens and 20s north, and 20s to lower 30s south, and with a continued wind at 10-20 mph, wind chill values will run squarely in the teens north and 20s south - a true winter chill!  This cool start will yield a cool day on Thursday, with temperatures holding just under 50 for many areas - barely above in Southern New England.  The atmospheric squeeze play will still be on, meaning winds will remain active and will gust even stronger than Wednesday, reaching 40-45 mph in some areas!

As the sprawling and strong high pressure cell in Central Canada migrates east later in the week, New England will remain under the influence of dry air, so that even as temperatures moderate briefly on Friday, sunshine remains amidst just a few clouds associated with the passage of a weak cool front Friday afternoon and evening.  Behind this front, a reinforcing shot of cool air will fall into place for Saturday, while a significant slug of warmth and moisture builds over the Ohio Valley, and a series of energetic disturbances continue to ride from the Pacific to the Great Lakes, resutling in the potential for Midwestern flooding and severe weather, but deflected from moving into the Northeast until dry and cool Canadian air can relinquish its control.  By Sunday, the dry air will break down gradually, but steadilly, resulting in thickening clouds and the likelihood for showers to develop later in the day.  Rain will move across New England Sunday night into early Monday with one low pressure center passing to our north, and another to our south.  Though mild air may follow this disturbance for 24-48 hours, a shot of cool air will move into New England by midweek next week.

Technical Discussion:  None today.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Monday, March 26 at 1:15 PM

Clouds and precip come courtesy of isentropic lift coupled with leading vort max ahead of primary vort moving across Great Lakes. First vort max brought multiple CG lightning strikes even tho light rain for a time, then the boundary layer moistened.  We're in a similar situation tho without the lightning for Nrn NewEng as I write, which makes sense given decreased llvl speed convergence and decreasing theta-e gradient.  Still, as air becomes more saturated, elevated instability increases and Wrn NewEng may see thunder before the day is out.  Farther south, slug of warm and moist advection has been less focused thus far but still will be sufficient to generate sct shra and then dynamic lift assoc with and ahead of main vort max this eve and tonight will be enuf to generate widespread shra, downpours and isolated tsra perhaps from Wrn MA to CT.  Wind shift early Tue truly is a trof rather than a cold front at its leading edge, tho I suppose technically it's still a cold front, just with the temp gradient lagging far behind.  The airmass change is lax in coming south because it must wait for the eastward movement of the high over Hudson Bay, which happens but not until later.  This actually means the passage of the wind shift favors more warming than otherwise in Srn NewEng as winds turn from the northwest and downsloping kicks in, warming many locales of Srn NewEng into the 70s as this downsloping helps to break up deck enuf for sun.  I know RH progs are very high, but that's similar to what we're seeing upstream in OH Valley today and tho clouds are numerous, sunshine is effective and temps have been soaring.  We're likely to see the same result in Srn NewEng on Tue afternoon after morning fog and low clouds that will be stubborn, with deck hanging until late morning when wind shift kicks in a bit.  Still, we're looking at a wind shift line/front that doesn't completely clear Srn NewEng, and a few extremely weak mesoscale waves of low pressure will develop along it.  This slight lowering of pressure, along with the warming interior, is likely to favor a sea breeze for almost all Southern NewEng coastal locales, whereas BOS may not get over 56 or so degrees before the sea breeze initiates, while LWM hits 70.  A bit trickier on the SCoast of CT where GON may go to 62 or so and then fall back, but stronger NW gradient flow in HVN argues for mid 70s!  Weak vort max Tue afternoon/eve may spark a thunderstorm in CT with sfc based LIs approaching 0.

Wed thru Fri brings installment of fresh, clean, dry and cool Canadian air.  High amplitude pattern flow suggests quick warming on Sat, and perhaps several degrees above normal, before rain event to end the weekend and cooler air to begin April.

Matt

PODCAST: STRETCH OF SUN TO EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND!

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the main homepage, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

Or, you can open ITunes.  Under "Advanced," select "Subscribe to Podcast." For the URL, copy and paste this: http://www.mattnoyes.net/matt_noyes_weather_blog/rss.xml

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3

DEEP SPRING WARMTH SOUTH, COOLER AIR NORTH - COOL AIR WINS OVER TIME FOR A BEAUTIFUL END TO THE WEEK

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

The passage of a dying cold front has marked the leading edge to cooler weather - but we won't feel the immediate results in most New England communities on Tuesday.  In fact, the temperature drop behind this front is lagging far behind, awaiting a push of north winds out of Canada to move southward, and leaving mild air with a northwest wind behind - a rare circumstance!  The northwest wind also means that our mild airmass will progress no farther north than it already was early Tuesday morning - across Central and Southern New England - leaving more clouds than sun and a cooler day in the north, with a blend of sun and clouds and much milder temperatures Central and South.  Eventually, cooler and drier air will envelope all of New England.

Tuesday's winds out of the northwest will provide a "downsloping" wind that slopes down off the mountainfaces and hillsides for a lot of lower elevation communities of New England.  With mild air in place, very little cool air streaming in, and a steady downsloping wind that will push air into lower elevations, thereby allowing it to warm and dry upon descent, sunshine will break through the deck of low altitude clouds for most of Central and Southern New England from late morning onward.  The combination of warming strong late-March sunshine with downsloping winds will push some Southern New England locales into the 70s Tuesday afternoon while Central New England rises into the 60s. Farther north, sunshine will come in the form of breaks between clouds as Northern New England straddles the boundary of warm and cool air, awaiting the arrival of new Canadian cold, and the limited sun will hold temperatures in the 50s.  Though there will be little to focus showers or thunderstorms at the surface by Tuesday afternoon, there will be a warm airmass in place at the same time a moderate strength upper level energy center rides over Southern New England, and this may trigger a few Tuesday afternoon showers and thunderstorms in Southern New England.

The next big feature on the weather map will be a southward sagging cold front across Quebec, heading south toward New England.  This front will represent the leading edge to a hearty shot of cool air in place across Central Canada, associated with a large and strong high pressure cell that will be expanding over Hudson Bay, Canada, and moving gradually southeast.  As the high pressure cell grows, its reach of clockwise airflow - and therefore northerly winds on the east side of the cell - will increase, driving the next installment of cold air into New England from north to south overnight Tuesday night, bringing gradual and marked clearing for one and all.  Though this air will have a better hold of New England on Wednesday, it will truly be a slow bleed southward, and therefore temperatures probably won't reach their coolest period until Thursday.  This will leave a gorgeous day of sunshine for midweek thanks to the steady supply of dry air from Canada and a northerly wind, with temperatures certainly cooler than Tuesday but still running above normal for the date, which would be close to 50 degrees as a New England average.  After a cool night Wednesday night, expect the coolest day of the week's end to come Thursday, as Canadian air will be squarely in place across the six-state region with winds picking up in speed from the northwest as a strong storm cranks up in extreme Eastern Canada while the nearby high pressure cell weakens, though still remains strong enough to exert its influence, especially when resulting in a big pressure difference from the Eastern Canada storm.

The expansive high pressure cell will lock dry and cool but pleasant conditions into New England through Friday, when a few high altitude clouds will increase late.  All the while, the jet stream pattern aloft for the end of the week will feature one major upper level storm over Eastern Canada - associated with the aforementioned surface storm that will help to keep cool, dry air in and our winds cranking later in the week - and another slug of significant energy moving east out of the Eastern Pacific and across the Rocky Mountains into the Central United States.  This type of a pattern, with two very strong disturbances over a relatively short distance (Rockies to Eastern Canada isn't far in the scope of the global atmospheric scale), is referred to as an "amplified pattern" because the dip in the jet stream with each disturbance is quite pronounced, creating large undulations in the jet stream winds that steer our storm systems and act as a thermostat for the atmosphere, leaving deep troughs of unsettled and cool weather very nearby to cresting ridges of warmer and fair weather.  With such an amplified pattern by the end of the week, this will mean a rapid transition to a milder regime by Saturday, likely followed by at least some showers if not a more meaningful rain for the end of the weekend. This amplified pattern, however, will likely lead to its own demise, as cool air dragged down from Canada by each strong disturbance will beat down the ridging warmth, resulting in the development of a more stable, flatter pattern for the United States next week, though a pattern that's likely to bring cooler air to the northern tier of the country, and especially to the Northeast for part of the first week of April.

Looking forward to the warmth tomorrow afternoon - see you back here tomorrow!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Monday, March 26 at 1:15 PM

Clouds and precip come courtesy of isentropic lift coupled with leading vort max ahead of primary vort moving across Great Lakes. First vort max brought multiple CG lightning strikes even tho light rain for a time, then the boundary layer moistened.  We're in a similar situation tho without the lightning for Nrn NewEng as I write, which makes sense given decreased llvl speed convergence and decreasing theta-e gradient.  Still, as air becomes more saturated, elevated instability increases and Wrn NewEng may see thunder before the day is out.  Farther south, slug of warm and moist advection has been less focused thus far but still will be sufficient to generate sct shra and then dynamic lift assoc with and ahead of main vort max this eve and tonight will be enuf to generate widespread shra, downpours and isolated tsra perhaps from Wrn MA to CT.  Wind shift early Tue truly is a trof rather than a cold front at its leading edge, tho I suppose technically it's still a cold front, just with the temp gradient lagging far behind.  The airmass change is lax in coming south because it must wait for the eastward movement of the high over Hudson Bay, which happens but not until later.  This actually means the passage of the wind shift favors more warming than otherwise in Srn NewEng as winds turn from the northwest and downsloping kicks in, warming many locales of Srn NewEng into the 70s as this downsloping helps to break up deck enuf for sun.  I know RH progs are very high, but that's similar to what we're seeing upstream in OH Valley today and tho clouds are numerous, sunshine is effective and temps have been soaring.  We're likely to see the same result in Srn NewEng on Tue afternoon after morning fog and low clouds that will be stubborn, with deck hanging until late morning when wind shift kicks in a bit.  Still, we're looking at a wind shift line/front that doesn't completely clear Srn NewEng, and a few extremely weak mesoscale waves of low pressure will develop along it.  This slight lowering of pressure, along with the warming interior, is likely to favor a sea breeze for almost all Southern NewEng coastal locales, whereas BOS may not get over 56 or so degrees before the sea breeze initiates, while LWM hits 70.  A bit trickier on the SCoast of CT where GON may go to 62 or so and then fall back, but stronger NW gradient flow in HVN argues for mid 70s!  Weak vort max Tue afternoon/eve may spark a thunderstorm in CT with sfc based LIs approaching 0.

Wed thru Fri brings installment of fresh, clean, dry and cool Canadian air.  High amplitude pattern flow suggests quick warming on Sat, and perhaps several degrees above normal, before rain event to end the weekend and cooler air to begin April.

Matt

PODCAST: DEEP SPRING WARMTH SOUTH, COOLER AIR NORTH - COOL AIR WINS OVER TIME FOR A BEAUTIFUL END TO THE WEEK

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the main homepage, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

Or, you can open ITunes.  Under "Advanced," select "Subscribe to Podcast." For the URL, copy and paste this: http://www.mattnoyes.net/matt_noyes_weather_blog/rss.xml

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO USHER IN DEEPER SPRING WARMTH...MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS PLEASANT

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

Clouds overspreading New England Monday are indicators of change in the atmosphere - a new airmass spreading northeast from the Ohio Valley, where early morning temperatures began the workweek in the 60s!  Though I'm not expecting a start quite that warm here in New England this week, I do think a sliver of this mild air will move into Central and Southern New England on Tuesday, before cooler but very pleasant air sweeps south for the middle and end of the week.

Any black ice early Monday morning melted quickly as temperatures rose with the combined help of sunshine through increasing high altitude clouds and an increasing southwest wind.  This wind will remain active through Monday as New England is sandwiched between a surface high pressure cell drifting east off the Atlantic Seaboard, and a series of weak low pressure systems rippling along an eastward moving cold front through the Great Lakes.  Because winds blow in a clockwise direction around a high pressure center, and counter-clockwise around low pressure, this forces an increasing southwest wind across New England, and in north-south oriented valleys like the Champlain Valley of northwest Vermont, this wind will be redirected from the south and may gust as high as 40 mph.

Meanwhile, an energetic disturbance is moving across the Upper Penninsula of Michigan, with a weaker bundle of energy preceding it across New York State Monday morning.  It's the leading, weaker disturbance that will move across New England on Monday with showers coming across the New York State border around lunchtime and spreading east through most of the rest of New England except Central and Eastern Maine between 2 and 5 PM, and this will mean that communities experiencing rain will find a slowed evening commute.  You can, of course, follow the showers on radar through the links at right.  It's been interesting to follow the radar imagery through Monday, as the "bark" has been worse than the "bite" with these showers, showing up as strong "reflectivities" that would imply heavy downpours or thunderstorms.  During Monday morning, this radar signature was deceptive, as only light rain was being reported beneath the echoes, yet numerous cloud to ground lightning strikes were present with some of the heavier storm cells.  This phenomenon results when lots of moisture and warmth is moving into a region, and because warm, moist air is less dense, this air rises quickly, creating deep clouds chock full of water droplets and ice crystals.  In the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere, however, dry enough air is present that the raindrops falling from these vigorous cloud formations mostly evaporate before reaching the ground, leaving behind light rain at the surface, but still experiencing the frequent lightning strikes associated with the more vigorous storm occurring thousands of feet above the ground.  This will be a similar case across much of New England for a brief time when the rain commences, thanks to our own supply of dry air at the surface, though as more moisture piles into the system, rain will become heavier and these bursts will begin to reach the surface as heavy downpours, at times.  Though conditions will not be quite as favorable for thunderstorms in New England as they were in New York State, isolated thunder is still possible for Western Massachusetts and Connecticut Monday afternoon through the first half of Monday night.  As warm and moist air erodes the lingering surface cool and dry airmass, fog will develop and a combination of low clouds and fog is expected to linger into Tuesday morning, even after the showers have dwindled pre-dawn.

Through the day Tuesday, a weak wind shift will drop south across New England.  Though this wind shift will have a history as a weakening cold front, there will be very few cold frontal characteristics left with it when it moves through, instead simply representing a wind shift that will bring winds out of the northwest - a "downsloping" wind that slopes down off the mountainfaces and hillsides for a lot of lower elevation communities of New England.  With mild air in place, very little cool air streaming in, and a steady downsloping wind that will push air into lower elevations, thereby allowing it to warm and dry upon descent, sunshine will break through the deck of low altitude clouds for most of Central and Southern New England from late morning onward.  The combination of warming strong late-March sunshine with downsloping winds will push Southern New England locales into the 70s Tuesday afternoon while Central New England rises into the 60s.  Farther north, sunshine will come in the form of breaks between clouds as Northern New England straddles the boundary of warm and cool air, awaiting the arrival of new Canadian cold, and the limited sun will hold temperatures in the 50s.  Though there will be little to focus showers or thunderstorms at the surface by Tuesday afternoon, there will be a warm airmass in place at the same time a moderate strength upper level energy center rides over Southern New England, and this may trigger a few Tuesday afternoon showers and thunderstorms in Southern New England.

The next big feature on the weather map will be a southward sagging cold front across Quebec, heading south toward New England.  This front will represent the leading edge to a hearty shot of cool air in place across Central Canada, associated with a large and strong high pressure cell that will be expanding over Hudson Bay, Canada, and moving gradually southeast.  As the high pressure cell grows, its reach of clockwise airflow - and therefore northerly winds on the east side of the cell - will increase, driving the next installment of cold air into New England from north to south overnight Tuesday night.  Though this air will have a better hold of New England on Wednesday, it will truly be a slow bleed southward, and therefore temperatures probably won't reach their coolest period until Thursday.  This will leave a gorgeous day of sunshine for midweek thanks to the steady supply of dry air from Canada and a northerly wind, with temperatures certainly cooler than Tuesday but still running above normal for the date, which would be close to 50 degrees as a New England average.  After a cool night Wednesday night, expect the coolest day of the week's end to come Thursday, as Canadian air will be squarely in place across the six-state region with winds picking up in speed from the northwest as a strong storm cranks up in extreme Eastern Canada while the nearby high pressure cell weakens, though still remains strong enough to exert its influence, especially when resulting in a big pressure difference from the Eastern Canada storm.

The expansive high pressure cell will lock dry and cool but pleasant conditions into New England through Friday, when a few high altitude clouds will increase late.  All the while, the jet stream pattern aloft for the end of the week will feature one major upper level storm over Eastern Canada - associated with the aforementioned surface storm that will help to keep cool, dry air in and our winds cranking later in the week - and another slug of significant energy moving east out of the Eastern Pacific and across the Rocky Mountains into the Central United States.  This type of a pattern, with two very strong disturbances over a relatively short distance (Rockies to Eastern Canada isn't far in the scope of the global atmospheric scale), is referred to as an "amplified pattern" because the dip in the jet stream with each disturbance is quite pronounced, creating large undulations in the jet stream winds that steer our storm systems and act as a thermostat for the atmosphere, leaving deep troughs of unsettled and cool weather very nearby to cresting ridges of warmer and fair weather.  With such an amplified pattern by the end of the week, this will mean a rapid transition to a milder regime by Saturday, likely followed by at least some showers if not a more meaningful rain for the end of the weekend.  This amplified pattern, however, will likely lead to its own demise, as cool air dragged down from Canada by each strong disturbance will beat down the ridging warmth, resulting in the development of a more stable, flatter pattern for the United States next week, though a pattern that's likely to bring cooler air to the northern tier of the country, and especially to the Northeast for part of the first week of April.

Looking forward to the warmth tomorrow afternoon - see you back here tomorrow!

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Monday, March 26 at 1:15 PM

Clouds and precip come courtesy of isentropic lift coupled with leading vort max ahead of primary vort moving across Great Lakes.  First vort max brought multiple CG lightning strikes even tho light rain for a time, then the boundary layer moistened.  We're in a similar situation tho without the lightning for Nrn NewEng as I write, which makes sense given decreased llvl speed convergence and decreasing theta-e gradient.  Still, as air becomes more saturated, elevated instability increases and Wrn NewEng may see thunder before the day is out.  Farther south, slug of warm and moist advection has been less focused thus far but still will be sufficient to generate sct shra and then dynamic lift assoc with and ahead of main vort max this eve and tonight will be enuf to generate widespread shra, downpours and isolated tsra perhaps from Wrn MA to CT.  Wind shift early Tue truly is a trof rather than a cold front at its leading edge, tho I suppose technically it's still a cold front, just with the temp gradient lagging far behind.  The airmass change is lax in coming south because it must wait for the eastward movement of the high over Hudson Bay, which happens but not until later.  This actually means the passage of the wind shift favors more warming than otherwise in Srn NewEng as winds turn from the northwest and downsloping kicks in, warming many locales of Srn NewEng into the 70s as this downsloping helps to break up deck enuf for sun.  I know RH progs are very high, but that's similar to what we're seeing upstream in OH Valley today and tho clouds are numerous, sunshine is effective and temps have been soaring.  We're likely to see the same result in Srn NewEng on Tue afternoon after morning fog and low clouds that will be stubborn, with deck hanging until late morning when wind shift kicks in a bit.  Still, we're looking at a wind shift line/front that doesn't completely clear Srn NewEng, and a few extremely weak mesoscale waves of low pressure will develop along it.  This slight lowering of pressure, along with the warming interior, is likely to favor a sea breeze for almost all Southern NewEng coastal locales, whereas BOS may not get over 56 or so degrees before the sea breeze initiates, while LWM hits 70.  A bit trickier on the SCoast of CT where GON may go to 62 or so and then fall back, but stronger NW gradient flow in HVN argues for mid 70s!  Weak vort max Tue afternoon/eve may spark a thunderstorm in CT with sfc based LIs approaching 0.

Wed thru Fri brings installment of fresh, clean, dry and cool Canadian air.  High amplitude pattern flow suggests quick warming on Sat, and perhaps several degrees above normal, before rain event to end the weekend and cooler air to begin April.

Matt

 

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