Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
Two big changes this week - one in the weather, and one for yours truly. On a personal note, I'm moving into my first home, so in the process I will, of course, be moving things around and also be without internet access for a time, so this will be the final written discussion until normalcy returns after Monday, 4/30. Resultantly, I will break this discussion into sections so those who are referencing the discussion through the weekend can quickly reference the proper location and not have to take time to scroll through looking for the info you need. Keep in mind that I've intentionally designed this page to serve as a utility for you even when I'm not giving frequent updates - that is, all weekend you can monitor expected rain, showers and thunderstorms through the radar links at right. You can check for watches, warnings and advisories through the link at the left of this page, or you can utilize the Weather Bug utility by entering your zip code, and no software will be installed on your computer, yet the utility will alert you if any warnings crop up for your community. Of course, the other sections like satellite imagery and marine links can be extremely helpful, as well, depending upon your level of interest.
Overall Pattern: It's been a typical New England spring weather pattern the past week, and will continue to be into next week. In general, that means a regular battle between cool and dry Canadian air and mild, moist southern air, with each respective airmass winning various battles and sending New Englanders into a roller coaster of temperatures and weather conditions. Heading into the weekend, a sluggish upper level disturbance over the Great Lakes and its resultant surface low pressure center with a counter-clockwise flow will gradually bring a mild and moist southerly flow into New England. The initial surge of warmth and moisture will have a tap to the Gulf of Mexico, and the collision with the preceding cool, dry airmass will mean a blossoming area of rain in the transition later Thursday night and Friday. Behind these showers, milder air will remain in place through the weekend and into Monday until a cold front slices south across the region.
Thursday: Soak it up! After more rain farther north than what I'd expected on Wednesday, at least we're still salvaging a terrific Thursday. Sunshine will rule the roost, though for some weather enthusiast fun, check out the Northeast visible satellite link under the satellite imagery link on the left side of this page. You'll notice some high altitude clouds spreading over New England through the day, but of great interest are some of the other features over the Northeast, including a very stubborn and thick cloud deck over and east of the Appalachian Mountains, and an oddly shaped fog bank sitting over the waters about 80 miles south of Block Island. As a meteorologist, both of these features are interesting because the first question that runs through my head is: just how long and how stubborn will those clouds to our west sit over us after Friday's rain? Do we hold onto them through the weekend (they're pretty menacing on that satellite image) or do we indeed break into sun? And how about that fog? I'm expecting milder and more moist air to stream in across a cool ocean, so should I expect a fog bank like that to lift north and lodge over some of our New England waters? If so, where?
Thursday Night: As warmth and moisture to our south and west makes its move toward New England, clouds thicken and showers develop. In the pre-dawn hours of Friday, the rate at which warmth and moisture moves in aloft increases dramatically, especially just about 6,000 feet off the ground and higher. Often, when such a surge of moisture and warmth comes in so quickly, rains can blossom quickly over the given area, even yielding thunder amidst the downpours, and that's what I expect to find blossoming over Southern New England in the wee hours of Friday morning. At the surface, winds will turn to blow from the southeast.
Friday: Southeast winds continue as a weak wave of low pressure tries to develop along the surge of warmth and moisture, and if it takes on enough definition, we'll even turn to an east or northeast wind across Maine and Eastern New Hampshire on Friday. This will most certainly hold cool air across these locales of Northern New England, where temperatures may very well hold in the 40s for highs! All the while, that weak area of low pressure will help to focus rain along and ahead of it, and ahead of the push of warmth, meaning that once the steadiest and heaviest rain pushes through Southern New England Friday morning, rain will taper to showers as winds shift from the southeast to the south. A few breaks of sunshine are possible in Southern New England later in the day (as mentioned in the Thursday section, though, just how stubborn and exactly where will these clouds be? At this point, I would think breaks of sun would probably be quite limited as a result of their stubborn nature to our southwest on Thursday, and the dramatic change in airmass we'll be undergoing), though any breaks of sun would only increase the chance of afternoon thunder in Southern New England later in the day. Farther north, clouds will dominate across Central and Northern New England, and numerous showers with periods of rain will stick around most of the day in the North.
Friday Night: This may actually end up being a slightly uncomfortable sleeping night for some of us! Normally, dew point temperatures in the 50s would be considered "comfortable" during the summer months, but when its the first extended period of dewpoints (the measure of the amount of moisture in the air) that high, it actually can feel a bit sticky for the body. It won't be bad, but it may be just a touch uncomfy for some, with low temperatures in the 50s and areas of fog Friday night in Southern New England. Fog is likely to be found in Northern New England, too, where temperatures will hold in the 40s (where they were during the day on Friday) and a moist atmosphere will couple with a weak lingering wave of low pressure over the Gulf of Maine to keep showers lingering in Eastern NH and Maine.
Saturday and Sunday: Both days will be rather similar, as a weak cold front virtually dies over New England and a pocket of cool air moves overhead. At the surface, the dying front will not bring much difference in temperatures from the mild air that will be in place by this point (most areas into the 60s, some into the lower 70s farther south), but will leave a "converging" wind - air that comes together. Aloft, the pocket of cool air will introduce "instability," or a difference from warm air below to cold air above. Remembering that warm air is less dense and likes to rise, this is a situation that lends itself to an overturning of the atmosphere, and when the warm air is forced upward by converging air, the result is cloud development. Throughout interior New England, the warm and somewhat humid air in place will fuel this cloud development to produce showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon - by no means a solid area of rain, but numerous enough that many communities will see some raindrops Saturday and Sunday afternoon (more areal coverage of showers Saturday than Sunday) in the form of passing showers and thunder. Closer to the coast, a sea breeze will kick in during the day thanks to relatively light prevailing winds, and cooler ocean air will significantly limit the threat for showers and thunder during the daylight hours, though some showers may drift overhead during the evening and night.
Monday: A cold front will approach New England from the north, dropping south out of Quebec. This front should be slow enough, however, to allow for another mild day for many of us, and with an increasing southwest wind and plenty of sun ahead of the front, Monday is likely to be the warmest day of the bunch. Temperatures in Central and Southern New England would rise into the 70s, and Northern New England would likely rise into the 60s as clouds increase across the North Country through the day. Monday afternoon through Monday evening, the cold front would sweep from north to south, respectively, bringing a line of thunderstorms and showers. In some locales, these thunderstorms could pack a punch with frequent lightning and some locally strong, gusty winds.
Tuesday: The cold front moving across New England on Monday will stall on Tuesday, and though from several days out when I'm writing this, a big question is exactly where it will stall, it does appear as though it will be close enough to us to affect our weather on Tuesday. While the day will likely begin with sunshine for many, clouds will thicken from west to east during the day ahead of an upper level disturbance riding out of the Great Lakes, and rain will develop from west to east with this disturbance as the day wears on, likely falling heaviest in Southern New England from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.
In the extended pattern, a general pattern of a jet stream "trough" or dip will linger into the start of May, keeping us vulnerable to shots of cool air, and shots of energy that can bring occasional precipitation events of moderate intensity. Nonetheless, it doesn't appear as though any period of dramatically below normal temperatures is in the extended range forecast, even though some bouts of cool air may push us below normal for one or two days at a time.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Matt
