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March 2007
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May 2007

SUNNY AND MILD STRETCH SETTLES IN

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

A large dome of high pressure - fair weather - will settle south out of Ontario and across the Ohio Valley this weekend.  With a clockwise flow of air around high pressure cells in the Northern Hemisphere, this will bring a northerly wind direction through the first half of the weekend and though one would normally expect to find cool air with a north wind, we've exhausted most of the cold air from Canada!  Our major storm spun a northeast wind into New England for so long that it took a good slug of Canadian chill with it, and the result is to stream dry, but not necessarily cool air into New England to start the weekend.

Of course, dry air can warm quickly when sunshine is present, and cool quickly when it's not.  Clouds can have this effect, but so can regular diurnal variations, with temperatures dropping on clear, dry nights, especially with light wind.  That was the case after clouds dissipated late Thursday night, leaving a cool Friday morning.  Plenty of sunshine boosted temperatures quickly Friday morning, and that trend continues through a terrific afternoon.  Coolest spots will be found along New England coastlines, where sea breezes will develop in an otherwise rather light wind flow, and a steady northeast wind is expected into Eastern and Southeastern Massachusetts, meaning cool ocean-modified air will keep a hold on these areas, mitigating the effects of strong sunshine and holding temperatures in the 50s, penetrating inland from the South Shore all the way to Foxborough.  Interior areas outside of this line of northeast wind, however, will warm handily into the 60s, with a few spots away from ocean influence and lingering cool air coming up to 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday the center of high pressure will migrate south out of Canada and across the Ohio Valley, eventually heading for the Mid-Atlantic coastline.  Given the clockwise flow around this fair weather cell, this will encourage winds to shift from the north to the west and even southwest for some over the course of the weekend, ensuring mild air continues to build across all six states, tempered only by sea breezes that will develop each afternoon as a result of a light overall wind flow.  By Monday, a chunk of warmth breaking off from Southwest U.S. heat as of this writing will have survived a trip across the Northern Tier of the United States, and will move over New England, encouraging temperatures to rise near 80 degrees!  With a strengthening wave of low pressure to our west, and the eastward migrating fair weather cell to our south, winds will increase from the west-southwest and though south facing coastal locales will remain cool, as will communities within about 30 miles of these southern coasts (including the coast of Maine), east facing coastal locales may very well enjoy the same warmth as interior counterparts with the prevailing offshore flow.

By Tuesday, a chance of showers returns to the forecast by late-day after increasing clouds ahead of an approaching cold front.  Behind this late-day frontal passage, a brief shot of cool air is likely, perhaps even below normal on Wednesday, when the front will probably stall near or just south of the South Coast of New England, allowing the next disturbance and associated wave of low pressure to  bring a renewed chance of rain to New England.  Admittedly, there will be a dome of cold Canadian air renewed in Ontario and Quebec during this timeframe, and the hope of seeing an extended period of warmer than normal temperatures may be dealt a major interruption Wednesday and Thursday.  In fact, with air several thousand feet above the ground expected to run some 4-6 degrees Celsius below normal, it'll be interesting to see exactly how the moisture and cold air end up interacting.  Though it would be a delicate interaction, if all came together just right, snow could be the result for some of especially Northern New England.  Given the amount of time between this writing and the middle of next week, and the very close and meaningful battle between cold and moisture occurring over New England, it's a bit early to fall on one side or the other of this fence, and best to continue watching carefully.

Nonetheless, milder air would return behind this disturbance later in the week, but may be met by another energetic system next weekend.  This would figure, because I'm planning on moving next weekend, so rain would fit fantastically, wouldn't it?!  Seriously, though, this next disturbance will be one of southern origin, meaning there would be much less chance of any wintry mix, but an enhanced chance of heavy rain focused on next Saturday if the storm comes together.  I'll keep an eye on it!

Technical Discussion:  None today.  Enjoy the weekend.

Matt


FRIDAY PODCAST: SUNNY AND MILD STRETCH SETTLES IN

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the main homepage, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

Or, you can open ITunes.  Under "Advanced," select "Subscribe to Podcast." For the URL, copy and paste this: http://www.mattnoyes.net/matt_noyes_weather_blog/rss.xml

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3


SUNSHINE RETURNS! NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

All Watches/Warnings/Advisories:

You can access active warnings for your area two ways through this site.  1) Use the "WeatherBug" utility on the top left of the page by entering your zip code.  This utility WILL NOT download any software to your computer and is entirely web-based.  If you do not know your zip code, I've included a link to a zip code lookup utility below the feature.  2) Use the link I've provided on the left of this page under the "Active Advisories and Current Conditions" section.  Both of these tools are ALWAYS here on my page, despite the weather.

Useful links:

Latest river observations and forecasts can be found from the Northeast River Forecast Center by clicking here.  Do notice the tab at the top of their map, to be sure you're looking at either forecasted or observed conditions.

Mariners, please utilize the links always located here on my page to the left, under the "Marine Interests" section.

Thursday's Discussion:

Slowly but surely, New England is finally breaking free of the grip of our prolonged and powerful storm.  Though the storm center has been steadily moving away from New England and southeast of Nova Scotia, spokes of moisture and energy have continued to rotate around it.  In time, however, a major pattern change will take hold of our region.

One of these spokes of disturbed weather moved through New England Thursday morning with another round of clouds and showers, but marked the leading edge to drier air being carried south from Quebec on a persistent northeast wind.  It's rare to see dry air coming into New England on a northeast wind, but this pocket of drying was available in Eastern Canada and our northeast wind direction was persistent enough to drain it souhtward, serving as a cloud eraser for a break of gorgeous sunshine in all areas for several hours either side of midday Thursday.  The next spoke of energy and moisture will pivot south down the Maine coastline through Central and especially Eastern New England later Thursday afternoon, clouding the skies over once again.  Enough dry air will be present in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere, however, to limit drizzle and showers with this next round of clouds - perhaps just a few sprinkles will make it to the ground in Eastern Massachusetts.  Otherwise, expect these clouds to begin the night Thursday night in eastern areas, but give way to the drier air surrounding them as the spoke of energy continues to twirl southward and back over the ocean.

Winds have been dying down, as well, and this has aided in settling the seas a bit.  Though waves will still be either side of 10 feet through Thursday, they are below levels that would cause significant problems with regard to coastal flooding above anything more than minor flooding during the Thursday afternoon and overnight high tides.  With the significant precipitation over, rivers will also continue receding. 

Clouds are likely to linger in Eastern Southern New England through Thursday night, but will give way to drier air and therefore clearing skies once again on Friday.  This time, it appears as though the beginning of a pattern change will be underway, with milder and continued relatively dry air spreading across New England, allowing temperatures to climb well into the 50s to near 60 under increasing sun on Friday, and even into the lower 70s with plenty of sun Saturday, though likely cooler across most of Maine where it's much more difficult to bring warmth in, especially thanks to the combination of cool air that will be sluggish to depart and a cool Gulf of Maine to our south, and cooler along all coastlines with a sea breeze.  By Sunday, sea breezes will linger at the coasts and may penetrate as many as 20 miles inland, but indications are that warmth continues through the interior.

A strengthening storm will move across the Great Lakes while high pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic on Monday, and this will usher in a strong west-southwest wind flow, carrying a chunk of warmth east across New England, and boosting temperatures near 80 for many!  And so it begins!  The start of a weather pattern change that will relax the big storms churning near and east of New England, allowing the northwest wind flow to relax and warmer than normal temperatures to spread in, on average, THROUGH THE END OF APRIL!

Finally, a light at the end of the tunnel for New Englanders.

Technical Discussion: None today.
Matt


THURSDAY PODCAST: SUNSHINE RETURNS! NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the main homepage, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

Or, you can open ITunes.  Under "Advanced," select "Subscribe to Podcast." For the URL, copy and paste this: http://www.mattnoyes.net/matt_noyes_weather_blog/rss.xml

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3


THE WORST OF THE STORM HAS PASSED FOR MANY, THOUGH AREAS OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AND LARGER RIVERS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECEDE. BUT WHAT A WEEKEND ON THE WAY!

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

All Watches/Warnings/Advisories:

You can access active warnings for your area two ways through this site.  1) Use the "WeatherBug" utility on the top left of the page by entering your zip code.  This utility WILL NOT download any software to your computer and is entirely web-based.  If you do not know your zip code, I've included a link to a zip code lookup utility below the feature.  2) Use the link I've provided on the left of this page under the "Active Advisories and Current Conditions" section.  Both of these tools are ALWAYS here on my page, despite the weather.

Useful links:

Latest river observations and forecasts can be found from the Northeast River Forecast Center by clicking here.  Do notice the tab at the top of their map, to be sure you're looking at either forecasted or observed conditions.

Mariners, please utilize the links always located here on my page to the left, under the "Marine Interests" section.

Tuesday's Discussion:

Back to a bit more normalcy in the post today as the urgency of the situation wanes somewhat, at least from a forecasting perspective.  With rainfall rates greatly diminished, runoff has reached its peak and responding rivers have crested across New England with the exception of the lower Connecticut River near Middletown Connecticut and through Middlesex County, CT.  Coastal locales have taken a beating, and though flooding will continue during high tide cycles, affecting some areas more significantly than any other time this week, MOST coastal locales will find less intense flooding.

We'll start this discussion with a brief look at what was a powerhouse Patriots Day storm.  The combination of Pacific moisture and energy, Canadian energy, cool Canadian air that was in place in New England, and deep tropical Gulf of Mexico moisture along with moist Atlantic air produced a storm that was not only loaded with moisture, but also plenty of energy to wind up tightly.  The result was a storm that bottomed out around 28.54" on the barometer, moving over Long Island where it stalled for a time on Patriots Day and launched a band of heavy rains to the tune of 3"-6" northward, accompanied by a corridor of wind that gusted to hurricane force from Cape Cod and the Islands northward all the way to the coast of Maine.  The rains, as we know, resulted in plenty of inland freshwater flooding, while the wind downed plenty of trees and powerlines and churned seas to 28 feet at the Gulf of Maine buoy.  Of course, timed with a spring tide approaching the new moon cycle, this was the perfect recipe for coastal flooding and pounding surf resulting in substantial beach erosion that, sadly, has compromised structures from seawalls to seaside homes from Maine through Massachusetts.  In Rutland, Vermont, a blast of wind brought down numerous trees and power lines when what I believe to be a "lee wave" moved through the Green Mountains.  Such a wave of wind forms when relatively cool air is forced up the mountains, then comes rushing down, forming a persistent wave of wind that can be quite intense.  Power to some New Englanders will not be restored until late this week or even this weekend!

The storm center moved southeast and off of Long Island while weakening later Monday, but the upper level energy driving the storm's development lingered over New England and the result was yet another, though much weaker, storm center that developed over the waters east of New England and brought round #2 of waves, wind and rain on Tuesday.  That new storm is now gradually departing to the east, as well, merging with the original storm and keeping a broad counter-clockwise flow of air around its center, spiraling bands of rain and wind through Eastern New England on Wednesday.  Though most Central and Eastern areas will find periods of rain and drizzle through our Hump Day, Western and far Northern New England has been just far enough removed from the moist northeast flow of air to break into at least a few peeks of sunshine!  For everyone else, however, it's a more tame version of rain - heavy drizzle and light rain in eastern areas - and wind - gusts of 35-40 mph through the eastern third of New England - that persist through the day.

As the storm center gradually spins away from New England, its effects on the region will gradually weaken.  Battering waves of 12-17 feet on Wednesday will slowly diminish Wednesday night and Thursday, but will still be churned around and above 10 feet with a persistent offshore flow.  These waves will aggravate an already high astronomical tide, resulting in minor and moderate coastal flooding for the Wednesday night high tide around 1:30 AM, after already dealing with an early Wednesday afternoon high tide that brought fewer problems than its predecessor, but new problems for some.  The areas of new problems come as a result of shifting wind, now blowing from the north and northeast, putting north and northeast facing coastlines in more precarious positions than they've been earlier in the storm.  The same situation will occur Wednesday night.  Areas of minor flooding are shown in yellow on the map below, with moderate shaded in orange.

Thursday will begin with lots of clouds, drizzle and perhaps even flurries or light snow showers in especially the higher terrain of Central and Northern New England.  Signs are, however, that somewhat drier air will wrap around the storm center and allow for more widespread breaks of sunshine across the six-state region sometime around midday Thursday into early Thursday afternoon.  Temperatures will respond to this sunshine by rising to either side of 50 degrees before another spoke of energy and moisture rotating around the storm center moves through Eastern New England, carrying gray clouds and drizzle with rain showers back into especially Eastern Massachusetts.  Winds will still be breezy, but with the storm center meandering farther away from New England, gusts shouldn't exceed 30 mph.

Clouds and drizzle are likely to linger through Thursday night, but will give way to drier air and therefore clearing skies once again on Friday.  This time, it appears as though the beginning of a pattern change will be underway, with milder and continued relatively dry air spreading across New England, allowing temperatures to climb well into the 50s under increasing sun on Friday, and well into the 60s with plenty of sun Saturday, though likely cooler across most of Maine where it's much more difficult to bring warmth in, especially thanks to the combination of cool air that will be sluggish to depart and a cool Gulf of Maine to our south.  By Sunday, indications are that warmth continues, though sun will mix with a few clouds, and though there are some hints that a weak "backdoor cold front" may try to sneak in through the back door - that is, from the east rather than the normal direction of coming in from the west - at this point those indications are only something worth watching, but not worth hanging one's hat on for the forecast.

And so it begins!  The start of a weather pattern change that will relax the big storms churning near and east of New England, allowing the northwest wind flow to relax and warmer than normal temperatures to spread in, on average, THROUGH THE END OF APRIL!

Finally, a light at the end of the tunnel for New Englanders.

Technical Discussion: None today.
Matt


WEDNESDAY PODCAST: THE WORST OF THE STORM HAS PASSED FOR MANY, THOUGH AREAS OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AND LARGER RIVERS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECEDE. BUT WHAT A WEEKEND ON THE WAY!

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the main homepage, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

Or, you can open ITunes.  Under "Advanced," select "Subscribe to Podcast." For the URL, copy and paste this: http://www.mattnoyes.net/matt_noyes_weather_blog/rss.xml

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3


ROUND #2 OF STORM MOVES THROUGH TODAY...FLOODING COASTLINE TO RIVERBANK

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

Limited update today due to intense coverage of coastal and inland flooding on NECN.

All Watches/Warnings/Advisories:

You can access active warnings for your area two ways through this site.  1) Use the "WeatherBug" utility on the top left of the page by entering your zip code.  This utility WILL NOT download any software to your computer and is entirely web-based.  If you do not know your zip code, I've included a link to a zip code lookup utility below the feature.  2) Use the link I've provided on the left of this page under the "Active Advisories and Current Conditions" section.  Both of these tools are ALWAYS here on my page, despite the weather.

Useful links:

Latest river observations and forecasts can be found from the Northeast River Forecast Center by clicking here.  Do notice the tab at the top of their map, to be sure you're looking at either forecasted or observed conditions.

Mariners, please utilize the links always located here on my page to the left, under the "Marine Interests" section.

Monday's Discussion:

Coastal Flooding:  Winds are shifting and that bodes well for Midcoast and Downeast Maine, where damage was done and multiple reports came in of flooding around Southwest Harbor and Bar Harbor.  With winds now blowing from the north and north-northeast, an offshore flow has developed here, and threat from flooding will be substantially diminished.  Farther south, a northeast wind persists and that means coastal flooding threat persists.  A midday Tuesday high tide will bring areas of minor to moderate flooding, with the hardest hit areas being those that face northeast and east - especially from the Southern Coast of Maine through the New Hampshire Seacoast to Cape Ann, then again in the Winthrop and Hingham area, and again near Marshfield and on Outer Cape Cod.  Tides have natural variation in height from one cycle to the next, and Tuesday midday's high tide was not astronomically one of the higher cycles.  As we approach the new moon phase, however, high tide Tuesday night around midnight will be considerably higher and will mean more widespread moderate coastal flooding with pockets of major flooding possible in the more vulnerable areas mentioned above.  In a few areas, this flooding may equal that of Monday afternoon's high tide, though one mitigating factor will be gradually but steadily subsiding wave heights, which may help to limit just how high the tide comes, but certainly a worse result than was seen Tuesday afternoon is expected. Sfx_coastal_flood_threat

Beach Erosion:  It's official - this storm has brought homes to the sea.  If you've been watching NECN, you've seen the heartbreaking footage of homes along the South Coast of Maine that have been washed off their foundations, now washed along the sand.  The pounding surf also has compromised piers and seawalls along the Eastern coast of Massachusetts, and this means sight-seeing folks shouldn't venture onto such structures, or near the edge of beaches near water, as significant erosion and structural stress from recent wave action may create an exceptionally dangerous situation that would only be apparent to those familiar with structural integrity.

Inland Flooding:  A major problem with this storm has been inland flooding of streams and rivers.  Most streams and small rivers are receding, though major rivers like the Merrimack and Connecticut were still rising as of this writing.  The Merrimack River will NOT reach the same levels of May 2006 Mother's Day floods.  Thought it will come within a foot of those levels, that foot of water makes a huge difference as to the number of homes and businesses affected, and the river is likely to begin falling late Tuesday.  The Shawsheen and Spicket will continue to see flooding of typicallly flood-prone areas.  The Connecticut River, on the other hand, will rise to major flood levels by later Tuesday - it's a river that's slow to rise, but flooding will be extensive around Middletown, Portland, Chester and Essex, CT.  Please do follow any and all evacuation orders in the interests of your own safety, and feel free to follow river levels with the link I've provided above.  Sfx_river_warnings

Wind:  Damaging wind is done.  Winds will continue to gust up to 45 mph Tuesday, 35 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday, blowing out of the northeast and north.  This is offshore for many Maine locales, which means hearty-souled and warm-blooded surf afficionados will likely take to the seas.  I woudn't be surprised to see the same result off the South Coast of New England.

Rain and Snow:  Though the heaviest precipitation is over, still some downpours and bursts of snow embedded in them have been rotating from northeast to southwest inside of broader and less intense precipitation bands - all a result of the new storm that's developed off the Eastern coast of New England.  Snow has accumulated at times to a coating in the higher terrain of Central and Southern New England, but with temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40, most of this has been melting away.  In the mountains of Maine to the Crown of Maine, we've been oscillating between snow and freezing rain, but 4"-8" of snow is expected in these areas by Wednesday morning, once again resulting in a few power outages.

Extended:  This storm will continue to spin only slowly away from New England on Wednesday, keeping clouds and pockets of rain with snowflakes across New England - especially Southern New England.  By Thursday, one more spoke of moisture and energy will rotate overhead, meaning any morning sunshine will disappear behind an increasing deck of gray clouds with scattered rain showers.  By Friday, leftover clouds early will give way to increasing sun and increasing warmth.  In fact, when a long-overdue to break pattern like this finally does depart, often a significant warmup follows suit, and that should be the case by the weekend into next week.

Matt


TUESDAY PODCAST: ROUND #2 OF STORM MOVES THROUGH TODAY...FLOODING COASTLINE TO RIVERBANK

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the main homepage, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

Or, you can open ITunes.  Under "Advanced," select "Subscribe to Podcast." For the URL, copy and paste this: http://www.mattnoyes.net/matt_noyes_weather_blog/rss.xml

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3


SUNDAY PODCAST: HISTORIC STORM EVOLVING AS EXPECTED...EPIC COASTAL FLOODING FOR PARTS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND, SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, FLOODING RAINS, POWER OUTAGE SNOWS, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, ALL COME INTO PLAY

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the main homepage, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

Or, you can open ITunes.  Under "Advanced," select "Subscribe to Podcast." For the URL, copy and paste this: http://www.mattnoyes.net/matt_noyes_weather_blog/rss.xml

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3


SUNDAY UPDATE: HISTORIC STORM EVOLVING AS EXPECTED...EPIC COASTAL FLOODING FOR PARTS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND, SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, FLOODING RAINS, POWER OUTAGE SNOWS, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, ALL COME INTO PLAY

Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

All Watches/Warnings/Advisories:

You can access active warnings for your area two ways through this site.  1) Use the "WeatherBug" utility on the top left of the page by entering your zip code.  This utility WILL NOT download any software to your computer and is entirely web-based.  If you do not know your zip code, I've included a link to a zip code lookup utility below the feature.  2) Use the link I've provided on the left of this page under the "Active Advisories and Current Conditions" section.  Both of these tools are ALWAYS here on my page, despite the weather.

Useful links:

Latest river observations and forecasts can be found from the Northeast River Forecast Center by clicking here.  Do notice the tab at the top of their map, to be sure you're looking at either forecasted or observed conditions.

Mariners, please utilize the links always located here on my page to the left, under the "Marine Interests" section.

Sunday Update:

Not many changes to the forecast for this well-advertised storm that will deliver on its promised intensity.  Below, you'll find both Friday and Saturday's posts - Friday's has been left for those of you who haven't read these discussions in the past few days and want to get completely spun up, and Saturday's has been left because there's been little change to the forecast.  So, let me just highlight some of the biggest concerns now, as we enter the storm, and I won't get into great detail since you can reference that in the previous discussions immediately below today's update here.  Sfx_matt_fronts

Storm Track:  Looks like the storm comes into extreme Southern New England - Southern CT - before stalling/looping, then shifting southeast.  The slow nature and strong intensity of this storm keeps its effects around for most of this week, though the fiercest effects come early on.

Rain:  Rain is developing in many areas Sunday morning, and will become torrential later in the day.  Some areas are seeing snow (see below) but many Central and Southern New England areas will transition to all rain through the day Sunday.  Torrential rain will spread across Connecticut Sunday morning through Sunday evening.  The remainder of Southern New England will find the heaviest rain from Sunday evening through Sunday night.  Central New England will find any snow changing to heavy rain that will last through most of Monday.  Northern New England will find snow (see below) changing to rain Sunday night into Monday morning, though remaining as snow far North.  Total rainfall amounts were posted in a map in Friday's discussion, but have been reposted below, and will total as much as 4"-5" average amounts in Eastern parts of Southern and Central New England, with at least 2" for all areas!  This magnitude of rain will certainly be enough for flooding of streets and low-lying areas, and will also be sufficient for areas of "flash flooding" - rapid rises in streams and small rivers to above bankfull, that may result in some road washouts.  Especially given the expectation of this to occur overnight Sunday night, please exercise extreme caution in night-driving and remember the rule "turn around, don't drown" by not attempting to drive through flooded roadways.  Cars often stall in such situations.  Some flooding of small rivers - and if over 5 inches of rain falls, even mainstem rivers - in the Merrimack Valley is possible Monday as rainfall runoff causes rapid river rises.  Sfx_precip_fcst

Snow:  Brief bursts of snow began the day in higher terrain of Southern New England.  These should change to rain after accumulation of less than an inch in many areas.  In the Berkshires and Central New England locales that see snow, a couple of sloppy inches are possible before changeover to rain.  Farther north, heavy snow is still expected in much of Northern New England, though this will be mixed with plenty of rain in deeper valleys including the Champlain Valley.  With elevations above 1000 feet, however, snow will accumulate 6"-12" Sunday through Sunday night.  This heavy, wet, spring slop will mean numerous power outages, especially when its weighty effects are combined with an increasing Sunday night wind.  Snow will fall throughout the day Monday in the Mountains of Maine and parts of Central Maine, from Fryeburg to Dover-Foxcroft and Millinocket northward.  This snow will accumulate to as much as 18"-24" in these areas by the end of Monday - a major spring snowstorm that is sure to knock out power to these locations for several days, and residents in these areas should be ready to go an extended time without power utility.

Wind:  No change to thoughts on wind from yesterday.  Please refer to Saturday update below for details on expected hurricane force wind gusts to Eastern New England Sunday night through Monday, depending on location.

Coastal Flooding/Beach Erosion:  Please reference Saturday update below for details on this, but I can add that this should be an epic coastal flooding event from the Northwest shores of Long Island to the Southwest shores of Connecticut.  In these areas, major flooding will occur, and the National Weather Service is comparing this flooding for these areas to that of the Perfect Storm of 1991 and the March superstorm of 1993.  Preparations should be rushed to completion for the 10-11 PM high tide.  Follow any and all evacuation orders.  Also vulnerable is the Eastern Massachusetts coastline in areas that suffer from an east or east-southeast wind.  A minor to moderate coastal flood event is expected for many areas, with a 10-11 PM high tide.  Equally concerning are the effects of pounding surf on beach erosion, which will put in jeopardy vulnerable structures along the coastline, especially from Cape Ann northward through the Seabrook, NH, area.  Chances are good that if your structure is vulnerable due to previous beach erosion, you're painfully aware.  Coastal flooding will occur again from either side of Merrimack River all the way through Midcoast of Maine at Monday morning high tide, then again Monday evening.  A more northeast wind will take hold on Tuesday, and coastal flooding will be likely at most northeast facing shorelines that typically see flooding on a northeast wind.

Saturday Update:

We enjoy a calm and pleasant day before the big storm on Saturday, with the forecast looking on track for a day in the 50s south, near 50 central and 40s north under plenty of sun and a few clouds.  Clouds should increase overnight Saturday night well in advance of the approaching storm that will be strengthening off the Mid-Atlantic coastline while pulling north toward New England on Sunday.  Today's discussion is meant only to build upon and supplement yesterday's mammoth discussion below, so if you're looking for a full setup, you'll want to read that one (included below) to get spun up.

The big question on this storm remains how far north it progresses before slowing/stalling/looping then migrating south and southeast and eventually departing.  That uncertainty continues to hold the cards for Monday's forecast, though the trend is toward a solution that would pull the storm far enough north to at least bring it over extreme Southern New England.  But before we delve into that, let's touch up what I know and what I believe to be the biggest and most immediate concerns, and that is the scenario for later Sunday through Sunday Night.

Rain:  Heavy rain is still expected to spread across New England from southwest to northeast Sunday, beginning in Connecticut early to mid morning, then Central New England around midday and Northern New England during the afternoon.  Rain will become torrential later Sunday through Sunday night, with total rainfall amounts indicated in the map from yesterday's discussion (below) but expected to AVERAGE near 4" in Eastern New England!  That means some spots may be lower, but others will be locally higher, and this is enough rain to prompt flooding of not only streets, streams and low lying areas, but also of rivers. Though you can always check for Watches/Warnings/Advisories from the National Weather Service through the links at left, latest river observations and forecasts can be found from the Northeast River Forecast Center by clicking here.  Do notice the tab at the top of their map, to be sure you're looking at either forecasted or observed conditions.

Snow:  With a deep southeast wind flow, it's unlikely that we'll find much snow in a lot of Central and Eastern New England, thanks to modified ocean air streaming in off of the Atlantic.  The farther west and north one is, however, the more likely snow becomes thanks to dry and cool air already in place, and a bubble of high pressure across Eastern Canada that will be able to supply more cool air as the storm center deepens to our south and draws air into its center, meaning that cool reinforcing air will be tugged southward across New England.  The result will be developing snow and rain mix on Sunday afternoon changing to mostly snow from Upstate New York through the Berkshires and into Vermont, Central and Northern New Hampshire and Central and Northern Maine.  In the Berkshires, Southern Vermont and Central New Hampshire, the snow should change to rain overnight Sunday night after four to eight inches of snow.  Farther north, however, through Northern Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and Central/Northern Maine, half a foot to a foot of heavy, wet, spring snow is likely, and coupled with increasing winds, this will once again mean power outages.  For some areas of the North Country, due to persistent winds for a few days that will make the job of repairing and restoring power service difficult, outages may last a few days.  Please note that my accumulations given here are through midday Monday.  Additional snow is possible Tuesday (when snow may fall into even parts of Southern New Engalnd) and perhaps Wednesday.

Wind:  The wind is, of course, the biggest threat to mariners, but will be a problem for us all.  A corridor of fierce winds will develop on the north side of the storm circulation, and that corridor of wind, blowing from the east and east-southeast, will lift from south to north late Sunday into Monday.  The first areas to see the increase in wind will be the South Coast of New England, where afternoon winds of 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph will arrive by later Sunday afternoon.  This will only be the beginning of the wind, as the wind corridor is expected to increase in intensity as it pushes northward, resulting in gusts to over 60 mph along the South Coast of Connecticut, and Sunday night gusts to hurricane force (74 mph or greater) on Cape Cod and the Islands in especially the first half of Sunday night.  These hurricane force gusts will move up the coast of Eastern Southern New England overnight Sunday night, with gusts to 60 or 65 mph possible through most of Eastern Massachusetts, and this will down some trees and power lines.  By Monday morning, the corridor of fiercest wind will shift to Southeastern New Hampshire and Southern/Coastal Maine, where gusts to hurricane force would still be a possibility early Monday.  Thereafter, much will depend upon where the center of this storm stalls or loops. At this point, if the storm were to stall over far Southern New England, winds would gradually come around to blow from the northeast on Monday and then last into Tuesday, with the most intense wind from Cape Ann northward along the Maine coastline.

Coastal Flooding:  Latest statements and warnings should be monitored from the National Weather Service (again, warnings/watches/advisories are linked to at left of this discussion) for Coastal Flooding, as this has the potential to be a ravaging event for some of us.  The National Weather Service office in Upton, New York, is comparing the magnitude of coastal flooding for Southern Connecticut at the west end of Long Island Sound Sunday night (and perhaps Monday if the storm stalls far enough south) to that witnessed during the Perfect Storm of 1991.  The biggest immediate concern will certainly be for the west end of Long Island Sound, where fierce winds will coincide with an astronomically high tide in the new moon cycle Sunday night, pushing water up against these western coastal locales and resulting in perhaps a major flooding event.  Farther up the coastline of Southern New England, vulnerability will center around the 10:20 PM Sunday high tide for especially east and east-southeast facing locales.  With an onshore wind and waves building to 25 feet offshore, the threat for coastal flooding continues through Monday and Tuesday, though magnitude will depend upon location of the storm, and therefore the resultant wind direction and speed.  This could end up being a ravaging series of high tide cycles from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for the Maine coastline and New Hampshire seacoast, and perhaps the far North Shore of MA near Newburyport and Salisbury, where winds may continue to gust to 50 or 55 mph even into Tuesday.  If the storm stalls a bit farther south, these effects will be felt farther south along the Eastern Massachusetts coastline as well.

That's all for the early Saturday update.  Yesterday's discussion here:

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The storm I'm watching for later Sunday through Tuesday - when considered with its intensity and duration, will rank as one of the post powerful nor'easters in several years.  Though this storm will not be as ferocious as the Halloween storm of 1991 (a.k.a. "The Perfect Storm"), it's likely to be located closer, and the duration will result in significant damage to New England's coastlines.  Over the course of this discussion, I will outline what is known and what has yet to be determined with this major storm.  Through the weekend, I will update this website as necessary if any information changes my view of how the storm will transpire. Sfx_matt_fronts

Check out Coast Guard preparations from their site:  http://www.uscgnewengland.com/go/site/778/

In the meantime, Friday morning dawned with heavy snow producing white out conditions at times across Northern Maine as the storm that swept across New England Thursday and Thursday night exits to our east.  The bands of heavy snow in Northern Maine will taper through Friday, with scattered snow showers continuing through the mountainous terrain, and a few sprinkles and flurries floating across the remainder of New England at times Friday afternoon.  Though plenty of lingering moisture in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere is allowing a wide variety of clouds to linger over New England on Friday, winds blowing from the west are sloping down the mountains and hills, and in many downwind communities of Central and Eastern New England, this can assist in bringing breaks of sun through the clouds.  The storm responsible for up to a foot of heavy, wet spring snow and over 10,000 power outages in Maine continues to move out across Nova Scotia, but wraparound snow has been sluggish to depart from Northern Maine. Gradually, this snow will move across the Canadian border and out of the United States entirely.

Diminishing rain and snow showers and diminishing clouds will yield a partly cloudy and cool night Friday night with breezes slackening a bit, as well.  Saturday's sunny start will blend with a few puffy cumulus clouds during the afternoon, but will yield milder temperatures as a small wedge of high pressure, or fair weather, moves over New England.  Meanwhile, all eyes will turn to the approaching major storm, which will already have left a path of destruction in its wake.  After damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes through the Southern Plains, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, Friday afternoon and evening, and another severe weather outbreak with numerous tornadoes in the Gulf Coast and Southeast states Saturday, a ball of intense energy will roll to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.  This energetic disturbance will be the driving force of our upcoming storm as it absorbs Gulf Moisture, Atlantic moisture, and encounters a clash of airmasses from warm and humid southern air with cooler and drier northern air.  These factors will combine to produce what's referred to as a "bomb" in the world of meteorology - a storm that will strengthen rapidly off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.  Caught in a volatile jet stream pattern flowing quickly from Georgia to Vermont, this storm will be pushed northward by this corridor of storm-steering wind, drawing closer to New England as we head into Sunday.

The first evidence of the impending storm will be quickly increasing and lowering clouds Sunday morning, after a cool Saturday night thanks to dry air still in place for most of New England.  In fact, an important player in the upcoming forecast is the center of cold and dry air over Eastern Canada this weekend, that will be available to bleed cold air southward across New England, and will do so through Saturday night.  It won't take long after the increasing Sunday morning clouds for rain to follow suit, as it races up the Eastern Seaboard, with heavy precipitation developing in Southern New England perhaps as early as Sunday morning, then spreading north into the Northern half of New England Sunday afternoon.  Precipitation type will be mostly rain in Southern New England, though the presence of cool and dry air may allow for a brief burst of snow in many Southern New England communities, but especially in higher terrain.  Meanwhile, most of Northern New England and even North-Central New England should be cold enough to start as a period of snow, and perhaps accumulating snow through the interior. Within about 50 miles of the coastline, any chance for accumulating snow would be brief, given a deep developing southeast flow off the milder ocean water.

It's at this point that all of the ingredients begin coming together to rapidly strengthen the coastal beast, with its minimum central barometric pressure dropping to around 29.10" and still falling overnight Sunday night.  This rapid strengthening will allow a fast corridor of wind to begin feeding into the storm, and pushing through the counter-clockwise flow around the storm center.  On the north side of the circulation, this will mean an east-southeast wind approaching the South Coast of New England Sunday afternoon, blowing at as much as 30-40 mph by the end of the day from the South Coast of Connecticut to Cape Cod, with gusts to 50 mph possible.  Across the remainder of New England, winds will also increase sharply as the wind field associated with the storm expands markedly, with Sunday afternoon and evening winds of 15-30 mph reaching through most of the six-state region.  But that's not the whole story for winds - they will continue to increase Sunday night.

All the while, tropical Gulf moisture will be feeding north, and the approaching storm will team with favorable jet stream winds aloft to churn out plenty of precipitation.  In Sotuhern and coastal areas where a change to rain happens fairly quickly, rain will fall in torrents, and the development of a weak coastal front - the difference between ocean air and land air - may develop Sunday night, cranking out even higher amounts near the front.  In most of eastern Central and Southern New England, in excess of 3 inches of rain is expected Sunday evening and night, though near the coastal front, even higher amounts are likely.  Meanwhile, there's a good chance this will crank out as heavy snow from Upstate New York east across Northern New England.  At this juncture, just how much snow would fall is still up for grabs, largely because the path and timing of the storm is still uncertain...more on this below.  Sfx_precip_fcst

The heavy precipitation that falls Sunday night is sure to be windswept, as the corridor of wind moving north continues to crank, bringing winds of 45-60 mph from the east-southeast to coastal Southern New England, with gusts to hurricane force possible.  The question regarding wind is how quickly these damaging winds march northward up the coast of Southern New England.  Both this question, and the question of precipitation, revolve around the interaction of the surface storm with its energetic upper level counterpart.  That is, while the storm is propelled northward by the jet stream winds Sunday, at some point it will strengthen so much that the jet stream winds will bend to flow around the storm, and while this will allow it to maximize its strength, it also will result in a stall of the storm.  At this point, the question is where the storm stalls, and that's a matter of fine tuning that will come as we near the event a bit more.  For example, a storm that continues moving north until stalling over Southern New England on Monday would deliver the strong winds and hurricane force gusts in a progressive blow to the coastline, progressing up the coast from south to north overnight Sunday night, and stalling as continuous damaging wind from the New Hampshire Seacost to the southern coast of Maine.  A stall just south of New England would mean continuous battering of Southern New England with both heavy rain and damaging wind.  This detail is obviously an important one, but it seems that either way - progressive or slower - all of New England is in for gusty wind and heavy precipitation, and Southern New England will be hit hard with wind Sunday late afternoon through Sunday night. At this point, I actually favor a solution closer to the southern scenario, with the low pressure center still south of the Islands of Massachusetts as late as Monday evening after stalling south of us.  If my hunch on this is right, we're going to be looking at a very dangerous and prolonged storm for Central and Southern New England, especially, where the coastlines would be hit extremely hard.

This storm progression also will make a big difference on precipitation amounts by Monday morning, as a faster progression will spread more snow across Northern New England quicker, dropping a foot to a foot and a half of snow on Northern New England by Monday morning while a slower progression would shave about half a foot off of those amounts, and bring little to the immediate Canadian border by Monday morning!  Again, at this point, a slower progression seems most probable to me, though we still would see heavy precipitation spreading across New England during the day Monday.

Regardless, this storm should not be underestimated for its effects on the marine community.  Storm force winds and hurricane force gusts mean all mariners must be in port by Sunday afternoon to avoid life-threatening conditions.  Waves will build to over 20 feet Sunday night into Monday.  Coastal residents couldn't have worse timing, as we enter some of our highest tides of the year with a New Moon Spring Tide cycle producing 11 to 12 foot tides.  This, coupled with persistent onshore flow through Tuesday, makes coastal flooding a virtual certainty at almost every high tide cycle from Sunday evening through Tuesday night.  Exactly what communities get hit, and whether this is a moderate or major coastal flooding event, will depend heavily upon wind direction, and that, as alluded to above, depends heavily on where this storm stalls out.  For now, coastal residents who are prone to coastal flooding, even if only during significant events, should prepare for flooding.  If a major event shapes up, and especially if the slower solution verifies, evacuations may be needed on Monday.  Mariners in particular may wonder why I'm calling this a northeaster if winds are east-southeast.  Though winds begin with a great blow from the east-southeast Sunday night, if the storm center stays south of us, winds will shift to blow from the northeast during the day Monday, and remain from the northeast Tuesday.  Two of the three days are spent with northeast winds - and truly the winds will probably remain northeast through most of the week - and that's the reason for the nomenclature.

Marathon Monday depends heavily upon where this storm stalls, too. A stall south of New England, as mentioned above, would keep heavy rain and heavy wind across the entire race course.  A stall overhead would allow winds to relax in Southern New England and rains to shift north as rain and snow to Northern and Central New England.  I suppose optimists should hope for this farther north progression to verify, though that would mean south coastal Maine and New Hampshire would be under the gun for heavy precipitation and coastal flooding.

The effects of this major and slow moving storm will linger through most of the week.  Tuesday will bring heavy bands of precipitation to New England again, focused especially across Northern and Central New England, with colder air gradually draining south from the Eastern Canada high pressure cell, changing many areas to snow, though accumulating snow would likely be contained to Northern and Central areas thanks to above-freezing temperatures in Southern New England Tuesday afternoon.  I wouldn't expect nice weather to return in any big way at all next week, as the big storm leaves behind a very big "trough," or dip in the jet stream, that will favor new energy and cool air continuing to drop over the Eastern Seaboard.  In fact, another much weaker storm will develop in this trough later in the week (Thursday into Friday) though will probably stay south of us. Nonetheless, with energetic disturbances still dropping in aloft, the chance for precipitation remains, along with plenty of clouds, through the end of the week.

I will issue updates as needed this weekend for this storm, but I hope I've conveyed clearly above that we're dealing with a major storm with major negative effects.  The combination of its duration and intensity, precipitation types and prolonged onshore flow with propensity for coastal flooding and the impact on the marine community - keeping many in port through a good part of the week - along with beach erosion that may compromise houses if the slower, southern solution verifies, all are my reasoning for saying this storm has the potential to rank among the top 5 storms in the past several decades.

Technical Discussion:  I plan on updating the technical discussion in snippets over the weekend to give an idea of my thoughts.

Matt

Matt's Technical Meteorological Discussion: Updated Saturday, April 14 at 11:30 AM

12Z Sat NMM just coming in and now shifting much farther south than previous runs.  This is a significant trend toward the ECMWF/GGEM/Canadian Ensemble Guidance and tho the 12Z GFS is not in yet, I expect it will likely follow suit.  If you've read the General Wx Summary yesterday or this AM you know my preference is to keep this storm farther south, which keeps east coastal MA under the gun - at least the NShore - thru the NH Seacoast and Srn ME thru Monday.  This also will have huge implications on closing the window of optimism for a dry slot in Ern MA for the Marathon.  Wouldn't rule out that possibility yet, but if the Srn solution does indeed verify - even with the low as far north as the SCoast of NewEng we'd still find well developed onshore flow to saturate the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere with bands of ocean enhanced rainfall.   Will be interested to see how the 12Z GFS comes in, but to find such a shift in the NMM to the very consistent foreign models certainly is a huge sign that should not be ignored.  Those following a northern solution for the low need to reopen the southern solution window and allow room in forecasts for the implications of such a track.  Those believing in a more southern stall of the storm (myself included) this is a step in the right direction for the forecast (the wrong direction for the public) but of course there is a lot of time to go.

Matt

Monday's Discussion

1:10 PM: After two days of plenty of diurnal Cu and cool temps, sunshine is more abundant than expected early this AM and temps responding, so had to bump numbers up a few degrees for this afternoon.  Winds slacken a bit overnight but even 5-15 mph sufficient to produce chills in the teens with dry air allowing falling temps into the 20s most areas. Tuesday's llvl temps are actually progged to be colder than Mon, so may see numbers coming back just a shade cooler, tho less wind shud produce a comparable feel.  Sfc rdige axis crests overhead on Wednesday, and this brings nearly neutral horizontal thermal advection along with a light wind.  Aloft, the persistent upper low over extreme Eastern Canada pulls northeast and well east of Newfoundland.

The shift in this pattern aloft allows for a more progressive upper air pattern.  This effectively cuts off our protective northwest flow, and with a pinched off ridge over Central Canada as part of a highly amplified omega block, troffing locks over Nrn NewEng and Ern Quebec, meaning cold air keeps coming south in the lower several thousand feet of the atmosphere, locked in by confluent flow east of ME.  Warmer air will try to spread NE out of the Ohio Valley later Wed, resulting in increasing clouds.  Of more importance, of course, is the strong Pacific energy coming into the NW US early this week, traversing the country quickly in fast westerlies midweek, and amplifying as it approaches the NE US trof by later Wed and Thu.  This system comes not only with moderate vorticity, but also carries a moist and warmer airmass owing to its Pacific origins.  Additionally, an active subtropical jet will offer at least modest input to this storm on its southern flank.  This additional warm and moist advection will aid in shifting focus from primary low in Great Lakes to new developing secondary low off Mid-Atlantic coastline.  With cold air wedged in NewEng, sfc low is likely to favor a track S of NewEng, and the airmass will be dry enuf to stay cold upon saturation, and most certainly looks cold enuf for snow.  Of course, one critical component is storm track in this scenario.  With such dramatically conflicting airmasses, there's likely to be a rather sharp rain/snow line on the NW side of the circulation, tho the NE side may have a small mix area where midlvl warmth rides farther north but northeast wind holds in ageostrophic wind component.  Still, for the interior of even Southern NewEng this has the potential to be a 6"+ snowstorm of heavy wet snow, that may produce power outages this time in Srn NewEng.  Tough to accept that possibility logically, knowing we're a week deeper into spring and yet contemplating a storm producing a swath of heavy snow farther SOUTH than the last one, but the cold in place now is deep and thanks to the combination of the persistent upper low aloft, and the building anticylcone at the surface, is stubborn.  Also of importance will be the timing of the onset of precip.  While last week proved full well that this was not important for areas deep enuf into the cold air, diurnal effects certainly did make a difference in Srn NewEng last week, and will again this week, tho perhaps more of Srn NewEng will be more squarely into the cold air this time around, making it more of a factor farther S.  What I mean by this is that a strong April sun angle can have a big effect on temps - especially in lower elevations - and this would influence ptype right from the start.  An early start means less diurnal effects before dynamic and evaporational cooling takes over, while a delayed start increases boundary layer temp and makes pure snow at least a bit more of an effort, creating elevation AND north/south dimensions to the rain/snow line.  Again, deeper into the cold air - which may even simply mean interior Srn NewEng this time around - this will be less of a factor.

The storm should be out by later Thu ngt, and Fri looks like a windy and cool day.  But for the weekend comes a very impressive upper level low, barrelling E in the jet stream flow with a well amplified trof that has shown very strong indications of being an efficient precip producer in the Ensemble guidance for two weeks!  This disturbance will amplify sufficiently to tap the gulf of mexico full bore, meaning inches of rain will be possible Sat Ngt/Sun, and on top of snow, this would result in flooding for Srn NewEng on Sunday.  Of course, that comes just a day before the Boston Marathon, meaning conditions could be sloppy, especially in the fields of Hopkinton where preparation for the race takes place.

Farther down the road, troffing persists into the last week of April!  This will keep temps below to much below normal for the week of the 16th to 20th of April, then near or slightly below normal on average (a day or two may exceed normal) the final week of April.

Plenty to watch carefully - an amazing winter pattern continues in the middle of spring!

Matt