Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is [email protected]. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
A large dome of high pressure - fair weather - will settle south out of Ontario and across the Ohio Valley this weekend. With a clockwise flow of air around high pressure cells in the Northern Hemisphere, this will bring a northerly wind direction through the first half of the weekend and though one would normally expect to find cool air with a north wind, we've exhausted most of the cold air from Canada! Our major storm spun a northeast wind into New England for so long that it took a good slug of Canadian chill with it, and the result is to stream dry, but not necessarily cool air into New England to start the weekend.
Of course, dry air can warm quickly when sunshine is present, and cool quickly when it's not. Clouds can have this effect, but so can regular diurnal variations, with temperatures dropping on clear, dry nights, especially with light wind. That was the case after clouds dissipated late Thursday night, leaving a cool Friday morning. Plenty of sunshine boosted temperatures quickly Friday morning, and that trend continues through a terrific afternoon. Coolest spots will be found along New England coastlines, where sea breezes will develop in an otherwise rather light wind flow, and a steady northeast wind is expected into Eastern and Southeastern Massachusetts, meaning cool ocean-modified air will keep a hold on these areas, mitigating the effects of strong sunshine and holding temperatures in the 50s, penetrating inland from the South Shore all the way to Foxborough. Interior areas outside of this line of northeast wind, however, will warm handily into the 60s, with a few spots away from ocean influence and lingering cool air coming up to 70 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday the center of high pressure will migrate south out of Canada and across the Ohio Valley, eventually heading for the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Given the clockwise flow around this fair weather cell, this will encourage winds to shift from the north to the west and even southwest for some over the course of the weekend, ensuring mild air continues to build across all six states, tempered only by sea breezes that will develop each afternoon as a result of a light overall wind flow. By Monday, a chunk of warmth breaking off from Southwest U.S. heat as of this writing will have survived a trip across the Northern Tier of the United States, and will move over New England, encouraging temperatures to rise near 80 degrees! With a strengthening wave of low pressure to our west, and the eastward migrating fair weather cell to our south, winds will increase from the west-southwest and though south facing coastal locales will remain cool, as will communities within about 30 miles of these southern coasts (including the coast of Maine), east facing coastal locales may very well enjoy the same warmth as interior counterparts with the prevailing offshore flow.
By Tuesday, a chance of showers returns to the forecast by late-day after increasing clouds ahead of an approaching cold front. Behind this late-day frontal passage, a brief shot of cool air is likely, perhaps even below normal on Wednesday, when the front will probably stall near or just south of the South Coast of New England, allowing the next disturbance and associated wave of low pressure to bring a renewed chance of rain to New England. Admittedly, there will be a dome of cold Canadian air renewed in Ontario and Quebec during this timeframe, and the hope of seeing an extended period of warmer than normal temperatures may be dealt a major interruption Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, with air several thousand feet above the ground expected to run some 4-6 degrees Celsius below normal, it'll be interesting to see exactly how the moisture and cold air end up interacting. Though it would be a delicate interaction, if all came together just right, snow could be the result for some of especially Northern New England. Given the amount of time between this writing and the middle of next week, and the very close and meaningful battle between cold and moisture occurring over New England, it's a bit early to fall on one side or the other of this fence, and best to continue watching carefully.
Nonetheless, milder air would return behind this disturbance later in the week, but may be met by another energetic system next weekend. This would figure, because I'm planning on moving next weekend, so rain would fit fantastically, wouldn't it?! Seriously, though, this next disturbance will be one of southern origin, meaning there would be much less chance of any wintry mix, but an enhanced chance of heavy rain focused on next Saturday if the storm comes together. I'll keep an eye on it!
Technical Discussion: None today. Enjoy the weekend.