Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather!  While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants.  I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible.  You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net.  This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it!  -Matt Noyes

General Weather Summary:

Limited update today due to intense coverage of coastal and inland flooding on NECN.

All Watches/Warnings/Advisories:

You can access active warnings for your area two ways through this site.  1) Use the "WeatherBug" utility on the top left of the page by entering your zip code.  This utility WILL NOT download any software to your computer and is entirely web-based.  If you do not know your zip code, I've included a link to a zip code lookup utility below the feature.  2) Use the link I've provided on the left of this page under the "Active Advisories and Current Conditions" section.  Both of these tools are ALWAYS here on my page, despite the weather.

Useful links:

Latest river observations and forecasts can be found from the Northeast River Forecast Center by clicking here.  Do notice the tab at the top of their map, to be sure you're looking at either forecasted or observed conditions.

Mariners, please utilize the links always located here on my page to the left, under the "Marine Interests" section.

Monday's Discussion:

Coastal Flooding:  Winds are shifting and that bodes well for Midcoast and Downeast Maine, where damage was done and multiple reports came in of flooding around Southwest Harbor and Bar Harbor.  With winds now blowing from the north and north-northeast, an offshore flow has developed here, and threat from flooding will be substantially diminished.  Farther south, a northeast wind persists and that means coastal flooding threat persists.  A midday Tuesday high tide will bring areas of minor to moderate flooding, with the hardest hit areas being those that face northeast and east - especially from the Southern Coast of Maine through the New Hampshire Seacoast to Cape Ann, then again in the Winthrop and Hingham area, and again near Marshfield and on Outer Cape Cod.  Tides have natural variation in height from one cycle to the next, and Tuesday midday's high tide was not astronomically one of the higher cycles.  As we approach the new moon phase, however, high tide Tuesday night around midnight will be considerably higher and will mean more widespread moderate coastal flooding with pockets of major flooding possible in the more vulnerable areas mentioned above.  In a few areas, this flooding may equal that of Monday afternoon's high tide, though one mitigating factor will be gradually but steadily subsiding wave heights, which may help to limit just how high the tide comes, but certainly a worse result than was seen Tuesday afternoon is expected. Sfx_coastal_flood_threat

Beach Erosion:  It's official - this storm has brought homes to the sea.  If you've been watching NECN, you've seen the heartbreaking footage of homes along the South Coast of Maine that have been washed off their foundations, now washed along the sand.  The pounding surf also has compromised piers and seawalls along the Eastern coast of Massachusetts, and this means sight-seeing folks shouldn't venture onto such structures, or near the edge of beaches near water, as significant erosion and structural stress from recent wave action may create an exceptionally dangerous situation that would only be apparent to those familiar with structural integrity.

Inland Flooding:  A major problem with this storm has been inland flooding of streams and rivers.  Most streams and small rivers are receding, though major rivers like the Merrimack and Connecticut were still rising as of this writing.  The Merrimack River will NOT reach the same levels of May 2006 Mother's Day floods.  Thought it will come within a foot of those levels, that foot of water makes a huge difference as to the number of homes and businesses affected, and the river is likely to begin falling late Tuesday.  The Shawsheen and Spicket will continue to see flooding of typicallly flood-prone areas.  The Connecticut River, on the other hand, will rise to major flood levels by later Tuesday - it's a river that's slow to rise, but flooding will be extensive around Middletown, Portland, Chester and Essex, CT.  Please do follow any and all evacuation orders in the interests of your own safety, and feel free to follow river levels with the link I've provided above.  Sfx_river_warnings

Wind:  Damaging wind is done.  Winds will continue to gust up to 45 mph Tuesday, 35 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday, blowing out of the northeast and north.  This is offshore for many Maine locales, which means hearty-souled and warm-blooded surf afficionados will likely take to the seas.  I woudn't be surprised to see the same result off the South Coast of New England.

Rain and Snow:  Though the heaviest precipitation is over, still some downpours and bursts of snow embedded in them have been rotating from northeast to southwest inside of broader and less intense precipitation bands - all a result of the new storm that's developed off the Eastern coast of New England.  Snow has accumulated at times to a coating in the higher terrain of Central and Southern New England, but with temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40, most of this has been melting away.  In the mountains of Maine to the Crown of Maine, we've been oscillating between snow and freezing rain, but 4"-8" of snow is expected in these areas by Wednesday morning, once again resulting in a few power outages.

Extended:  This storm will continue to spin only slowly away from New England on Wednesday, keeping clouds and pockets of rain with snowflakes across New England - especially Southern New England.  By Thursday, one more spoke of moisture and energy will rotate overhead, meaning any morning sunshine will disappear behind an increasing deck of gray clouds with scattered rain showers.  By Friday, leftover clouds early will give way to increasing sun and increasing warmth.  In fact, when a long-overdue to break pattern like this finally does depart, often a significant warmup follows suit, and that should be the case by the weekend into next week.