Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
Thunderstorms will gradually replace heat as the major weather feature in the coming 30 hours as Wednesday afternoon storms will be scattered but intense, and Thursday storms will be plentiful. These storms come as we prepare to transition back out of a deep summer airmass and into a cooler and more comfortable one for the upcoming weekend.
For now, it's another day of haze, heat and humidity across New England. The oppressive feel for some of us is a result of plenty of moisture in this soupy summertime air - represented by dewpoint temperature in the world of meteorology, which are a measure of the amount of moisture in the airmass. The higher the dewpoint, the more humid our air is - dewpoints in the 50s typically are comfortable, in the 60s is typicallly sticky, and above 70 degree dewpoints usually brings an oppressively humid feeling. Wednesday afternoon dewpoint temperatures are running around 70 and this abundant moisture and warmth continues to feed into New England on a southwest wind, squeezed between a storm center pulling across Southern Canada, and a fair weather cell over the Western Atlantic. As high temperatures climb into the middle 90s regionwide, records will be challenged and perhaps broken from Boston to Burlington to Bangor.
Wednesday afternoon thunderstorms will continue developing east out of New York and Pennsylvania, and some of these storms will bring damage to New England. These storms are developing as a disturbance races overhead, several thousand feet in the sky, and allows the hot and humid air to surge skyward, acting much like towering heads of steam. These "cumulonimbus clouds," as referred to in meteorology, are thunderheads, and with only about 50% areal coverage across New England, the storms will remain scattered as they expand from west to east through the afternoon and evening. The scattered nature of the storms will mean each storm will be able to capitalize on its own pool of hot and humid air, implying a "full tank of gas" is ready for these thunderstorms to motor across the region, gaining furor and producing damaging winds with large hail, frequent lightning and torrential rain for some. Monitor these storms through the day with radar links at right, and check for active watches and warnings for your area either through the WeatherBug utility at left, or the link to the Active Watches and Warnings page that also can be found in the list of links at left.
Wednesday night will remain warm and sticky regionwide, and though thunderstorms will gradually diminish in Central and Southern New England as the responsible upper level disturbance moves past New England Wednesday evening, the amount of warmth and humidity in the atmosphere will not allow any storms to die quickly, and they will likely instead gradually taper after sundown. In Northern New England, scattered storms should last through the overnight in advance of a southward sagging cold front settling into the North Country from Southern Canada.
That front is a well-defined feature on the weather map, and has already created some noticeable changes on New England weather. Draped across Northern Maine, north of the front most of Aroostook County (the northern tip of Maine) has seen dewpoints drop through the comfortable 50s and into the downright dry and pleasant 40s! This is aiding in a tremendous temperature difference between Caribou and Bangor, ME, between lower to middle 70s north, and some 20 degrees warmer lower to middle 90s in Central Maine! That same front is the one that will drop gradually south Wednesday night, then make continued sluggish progress southward across New England on Thursday. Though drier and cooler air is evident behind it, that air won't move in until the front passes and the wind shifts, which will take all day and even into Thursday night the farther south one is in New England. Such a contrast in airmasses, and the displacement of so much heat and humidity, will bring numerous thunderstorms and showers to especially Central and Southern New England Thursday, strongest during the afternoon when damaging storms are again likely.
Behind the front, clouds and even some bands of rain may linger at the South Coast very early Friday, but much drier, much more comfortable air will be spreading across New England, delivering a gorgeous, pleasant, comfortable Friday, Saturday and Sunday regionwide! In fact, the air will be so cool that not only will daily high temperatures drop below normal this weekend, but enough cold air will be present aloft for a few clouds to build each afternoon Saturday and Sunday, with the potential for a few light rain showers.
Thereafter, we have exhausted our chance of much above normal temperatures, at least for now. Instead, I would expect temperatures to run below normal for the first 10 days of July, with occasional bouts of severe weather as strong jet stream disturbances continuously reinforce cool air over New England.
Have a great Wednesday!
Matt
