Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
The overall pattern across the nation in the coming weeks will favor swings in temperature for New England as shots of cool air sweep south out of Canada, replaced by stretches of deep summer warmth. One slug of summer warmth will graze New England Tuesday into Wednesday, replaced by pleasant and less humid Canadian air for the end of the week. This see-saw pattern is expected to continue until the end of June.
For now, a band of middle altitude clouds moving east across Eastern New England Tuesday morning has settled into Western Maine and extreme Eastern Massachusetts, where it will continue to fall apart Tuesday afternoon. These clouds marked the leading edge to deeper summer warmth, and though the frontal boundary defining the border of truly oppressive humidity and scorching heat remains well southwest of New England, a steady south and southwest wind has ushered in at least a taste of summer warmth for most of New England. In eastern areas, and across most of Maine, a southeast wind and sea breeze component has ensured cooler temperatures through our Tuesday. For most areas away from the coastline, though, the steady feed of deeper summer warmth will not only team with sunshine to boost temperatures well into the 80s and even to around 90 in the Champlain Valley, but will also mean a noticeably more humid end to the day contrasted with the way it began.
Meanwhile, a cold front driven by an upper level jet stream disturbance is moving east across the Great Lakes, producing showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. Though the actual front will take a good part of Wednesday to completely clear out of New England, the atmosphere will become disturbed well in advance of the front, owing largely to cooling temperatures several thousand feet above our heads. The result will be isolated thunderstorms that may develop across Western New England - especially Vermont and Western Massachusetts - Tuesday late afternoon and evening. Though the coverage would be limited for a few hours late Tuesday, any storms that do develop would be able to feed off of the increasing warmth and humidity, and some may grow strong enough to produce localized gusty wind and frequent lightning. Perhaps the greater concern, however, will come from dusk until midnight Tuesday night, when severe thunderstorms will cross state lines out of New York, and may bring damaging wind, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain to parts of Northern and Western New England. Though you can always follow storms through the radar links at right, it's worth noting that rainfall may come down heavy enough in some of these moisture laden storms to result in flash flooding for some Green Mountain and Northern Vermont and New Hampshire locales. Elsewhere, a quiet Tuesday evening will give way to developing showers and thunderstorms, especially after midnight, as the storms move east. Prior to midnight, however, don't forget about the opportunity to view the shuttle Atlantis and the International Space Station, mentioned at the top of the discussion!
Showers and embedded thunder will continue to move across New England Wednesday morning as the associated cold front trudges east. Given the slow speed of this front, it seems most likely that scattered showers, downpours and embedded thunder will remain across especially the eastern half of New England through the first half to two-thirds of Wednesday. With the passage of this front from west to east, however, winds will blow from the west-northwest, and will result in less humid air streaming across all six states, creating a lovely Wednesday evening for many, setting up a quiet overnight Wednsday night and a decent Thursday with rebounding temperatures in a less humid airmass beneath sunshine. With an energetic disturbance aloft that will move through Thursday afternoon, a few widely scattered showers or a thunderstorm can't be ruled out as a cool front nears New England, likely crossing the region from north to south Thursday night.
We're likely to find a quiet Friday as cooler and very pleasant air streams southward out of Canada - a brief shot of cool air prompted by the strong energetic disturbance aloft that will tug a chunk of this new air southward. In a fast-moving pattern with the jet stream winds flowing nearby and summer air ready to return north, however, there's reason to pay close attention to the timing of disturbances through the weekend. Through this period, the jet stream winds aloft that steer our storm systems and act as a thermostat for the atmosphere will flow quickly, directly over New England. This will bring a chance of thunderstorms with the passage of each disturbance, and the trick will be nailing down when each one traverses our six-state region, and right now Saturday afternoon seems like a likely candidate for at least scattered storms in especially Northern and Western New England, with perhaps the chance of storms holding off until evening farther south and east. Though temperatures will fluctuate a bit in the coming several days, the average pattern will favor swings in temperature, but above normal temperatures overall that will last through the end of next week. With the opening of a southerly flow in the atmosphere, this will also set up a tap from the Gulf of Mexico that may not bring heavy rain into New England, but very well may put a significant dent in the severe and exceptional drought that continues across the Tennessee River Valley and most of the Southeastern U.S. next week. Closer to home, a blast of significant heat will be possible the middle of next week before another temperature swing knocks a cooler airmass back into New England by the end of the month. All the while, the pattern will become increasingly favorable by the first week of July for the Gulf Coast of the United States to pay close attention to the tropics, as a large high pressure center east of the Bahamas would favor steering any storms that develop into the Gulf of Mexico.
Have a great Tuesday!
Matt
