Welcome to the weather blog - a regular Monday through Friday discussion of the weather! While the discussions usually will only come on days I'm working, I'll issue special updates when the weather warrants. I will always post to let you know when no discussion is expected if I'm away on vacation, etc. - if no update is here and no info is available, that likely means the server has temporarily gone on the fritz and I will update as soon as technically possible. You'll find a quick weather synopsis linked to the daily forecast at the top of the page, a general non-technical weather summary below, and when available (most days) a detailed technical meteorological discussion will follow by mid-afternoon. My email is contact@mattnoyes.net. This blog is for you, so I hope you enjoy it! -Matt Noyes
General Weather Summary:
Gradually, the negative influence from the storm that's been spinning over the waters east of New England is waning, as the storm diminishes in scope and intensity, though still remains a player some one week after its development. Through the weekend, the storm will gradually move north and then northeast as it's absorbed into the jet stream winds, accelerating the circulation away from New England.
Though Friday began with large patches of low altitude clouds and some dense fog, the clouds and fog burned off in response to drier air aloft. With a somewhat moist maritime flow continuing out of the northeast, new clouds will blossom from time to time Friday, blotting out the sun at times and perhaps filling in a bit more across Southeastern New England relative to the remainder of the region, but all in all, our week will end on a much better note than the two days preceding it in Southern New England. Of course, for Northern New England it's the continuation of a grand stretch of weather with temperatures into the 70s yet again under sunshine, as your southern counterparts actually stay cooler - either side of 70 - with a cool pocket of air lingering on the northwest side of the ocean storm circulation. Expect partly cloudy skies Friday night as temperatures fall into the 50s - 40s in colder locales.
This weekend, as the storm finally moves back away from New England in increasing jet stream wind flow aloft, its influence on all six states will diminish. Nonetheless, afternoon clouds are a possibility in Eastern New England early Saturday morning, then bubbling cumulus clouds that may grow tall enough for scattered showers and thunder through especially interior New England Saturday afternoon, owing to the pocket of cool air aloft associated with the storm. These showers and thunderstorms wouldn't ruin anyone's Saturday, and would be scattered enough in nature that many folks will avoid the raindrops. As the storm and its cool pool of air pull away Saturday night into Sunday, a new cold front will approach from the west. This front, however, will really be losing its cool characteristics, as the air it picks up out of Canada has been very warm this week - in the 80s and 90s for daytime highs all the way into Central Canada - and this air will follow the "cold" front, ensuring it transitions to more of a wind shift line. Still, ahead of that line winds will blow from the southwest on Sunday, teaming with sunshine to boost temperatures into the 80s for just about everyone, which will make for a splendid and summery Father's Day. We will, however, want to keep an eye on the western sky during Sunday afternoon, as the passage of the wind shift line may bring scattered thunderstorms with it.
Thereafter, deep summer warmth spills in for Monday and Tuesday, and temperatures will near 90 to start the week. In fact, some folks may exceed 90 degrees on Tuesday, but that's largely dependent upon wind direction, as a southwest wind would be a few degrees warmer than a due south wind. Either way, it'll be hot! Though a cool front will settle south over New England on Wednesday, it won't carry much cool air into New England. Instead, the result is likely to be a round of severe weather on Wednesday, that may be followed by a few rounds of thunderstorms during the latter half of next week but temperatures still running above normal through the period - perhaps not into the 90s, but still summer warmth.
In the longer range, indications are that we'll remain on the northeast edge of deep summer warmth into the following week, as well, but the pattern favors repeated thunderstorms even into the end of June, and eventually we'll see the jet stream carving out a trough in the Eastern United States while the Western half of the nation sees a large ridge, or bump in the jet stream. That ridge will worsen drought conditions and wildfire concerns as heat surges out west, but the dip in the jet stream here at home will mean a hiatus to deep warmth by the end of June. Such a pattern also will leave the Gulf Coast watching the tropics, and while the East Coast would have to pay attention, the chances would be good that if any storms develop and don't take the southern route into the Gulf, they would have a tendency to recurve before reaching the Eastern Seaboard through the end of June.
Enjoy your weekend!
Matt
