Previous month:
August 2007
Next month:
October 2007

TORNADO OUTBREAK WREAKS HAVOC IN BRITAIN

Britain_tornado_092407 Tornadoes make headlines here in America, but they are rather common occurrences that we're used to hearing about.  In Britain, on the other hand, it's a different story and tornadoes are rather rare.  In a recent cold frontal passage early Monday morning, numerous tornadoes were reported with damage through the Midlands and the South of Britain.  In total, eleven reports had been received, and five have been confirmed by the group Torro, a group that investigates tornadoes and severe weather in Britain.  This picture is from Sky News, who did an excellent job covering the tornado outbreak and the aftermath, and requested pictures from viewers.

Have a thought on this blog item?  Share it in the comments section of this post!


TORNADO OUTBREAK WREAKS HAVOC IN BRITAIN

Britain_tornado_092407 Tornadoes make headlines here in America, but they are rather common occurrences that we're used to hearing about.  In Britain, on the other hand, it's a different story and tornadoes are rather rare.  In a recent cold frontal passage early Monday morning, numerous tornadoes were reported with damage through the Midlands and the South of Britain.  In total, eleven reports had been received, and five have been confirmed by the group Torro, a group that investigates tornadoes and severe weather in Britain.  This picture is from Sky News, who did an excellent job covering the tornado outbreak and the aftermath, and requested pictures from viewers.

Have a thought on this blog item?  Share it in the comments section of this post!


SUNTASTIC STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED

It's been a truly amazing stretch of weather region-wide for New Englanders the past several days, and the stretch of mid-summer feel should extend through Wednesday!  Our most recent and final surge of warmth in this stretch will come as a bubble of high pressure moving immediately south of New England on Monday settles to our southeast for the remainder of the week, ushering in deep summer warmth Tuesday and Wednesday that was responsible for 90+ degree temperatures on sunday from the Midwest through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and into the Southeast.

Though Monday won't bring deep summer heat, per se, temperatures will still climb some 12-14 degrees above normal for the date and resemble July readings rather than September.  The difference, though, is the absence of humidity with a dry and pleasant airmass in place and our warming mechanisms being sunshine and a southwest wind, rather than any type of tropical air.  That west-southwest wind will develop after winds begin from the northwest, with the shift in wind coming as New England shifts from the front side to the back side of a bubble of high pressure drifting from west to east, passing just south of New England's south coastline.  Because of the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure cell, wind direction will shift and the new west-southwest wind not only will begin to carry deeper warmth to New England, but also will bring "downslope flow" - wind sloping down off the hills and mountains.  Though you can always double click on any term in these discussions to find out what a word means (thanks to the folks at answers.com), downsloping flow is the term for wind that comes down from hilly or mountainous terrain, and as it descends, the pressure around it increases (the lower one is in altitude, the greater the atmospheric pressure).  By the properties of physics, as pressure increases on air, so does temperature, and the result is a warming and drying of the air as it moves into lower elevations.  So, on a day like Monday with a west-southwest wind, this means a lot of Central and Eastern New England will reap the mild benefits of this warming and drying of the air with sunny skies and just a few high altitude clouds mixing in from time to time.

Not only is dry air comfortable, and not only does it warm quickly with the aid of sunshine, but it also cools quickly when the sun is subtracted from the equation, meaning Monday night temperatures will be cool compared to the summer-like daytime highs, dropping into the 50s for most spots, though likely hanging in the lower 60s for the urban areas of Southern New England.  The air will once again warm quickly on Tuesday as a southwest wind strengthens and continues the flow of summer air into New England, sending temperatures into the 80s beneath plenty of sunshine yet again.  To our west, a deep feed of tropical moisture will continue streaming from the Gulf of Mexico into the Midwestern United States, where it will interact with a cold front pushing east, associated with a cold and energetic system that's moving east out of the Rocky Mountains.  This energetic disturbance and its attendant cold front will march slowly east, but progress will be slow as it encounters the ridge - or large area of high pressure - situated over the Eastern Seaboard.

After areas of fog Tuesday night, Wednesday the squeeze will be on across New England between the area of high pressure departing to our southeast and the approaching disturbance and cold front marching across the Great Lakes.  As the southwest wind gains in intensity and gusts over 25 mph Wednesday afternoon, the measure of the amount of moisture in the air will rise, as well, with dewpoint temperatures climbing into the middle 60s and a noticeably sticky feeling returning to New England after a recent hiatus.  The increasing moisture will serve as fuel for showers and thunder that may develop in Northern and Western New England very late Wednesday ahead of the aforementioned incoming disturbance, though most of Wednesday should stay mostly dry.

From later Wednesday night through Friday, a confluence of energy and moisture will make New England weather unsettled.  Determining the exact timing and intensity of periodic rain and showers associated with this new pattern will be tricky, especially from this far out, as the timing of rain depends on the speed of each upper level disturbance that will be converging into a larger upper level storm in the New England sky.  In fact, with the new "trough," or dip, in the jet stream winds aloft developing over the Northeast as cool air dips southward out of Canada associated with the northern stream energy moving overhead, the steering flow will begin to orient from south to north near the Atlantic coastline, and this is likely to allow tropical waves and tropical moisture to ripple north along the jet stream current aloft and the associated frontal boundary that will sit stalled off the coastline.  One big question here is how much of this moisture can make it far enough northwest to deliver rain to New England, though the potential exists for some of this moisture to create a swath of rain that may end up heaviest Thursday night, and then perhaps a round of thunder Friday afternoon.  All the while, the increase in clouds and falling rain from time to time will keep temperatures rather cool, especially in the North Country where temperatures may not get out of the 60s Thursday afternoon, and most areas probably will hover around 70 in New England on Friday.

The good news for fairgoers and others with outdoor dreams for next weekend is that this storm center should - after slowing overhead for a couple of days - become progressive in time to sweep drier air across New England later Friday afternoon or evening, leaving behind a dry airmass for Saturday and Sunday.  Though a chunk of somewhat cooler fall air seems likely as the new high pressure cell builds in Saturday, this air would be likely to quickly modify as the fair weather cell moves southeast while strengthening, setting up a similar scenario to the past several days, though unlikely to last as long.  Nonetheless, temperatures may warm back above normal by Sunday or Monday.

Have a wonderful Monday.

Technical Discussion: Planned on getting one out this afternoon but tropical activity necessitated numerous updates to the Tropical Page, which you can check out by clicking here.  Sorry for misleading on the techie for today, but will make time tomorrow and hopefully you find the tropical systems worthwhile.

Matt


MONDAY PODCAST: SUNTASTIC STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the Quick Forecast Page, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3


AN AMAZING SUMMER WEEKEND WILL WELCOME THE AUTUMN SEASON

Summer air has settled into New England and will remain in place through early next week.  This summer extension comes courtesy of a large "ridge," or northward protrusion, of the jet stream winds aloft.  Often referenced in these discussions, the jet stream acts as both a storm steering current of air, and as an atmospheric thermostat, separating cool air to the north from warm air to the south.

With the jet stream to our north and flowing swiftly from the Rocky Mountains northeast into Southern Canada, New England remains south of the thermostat - on the warm side - and out of the active storm path.  Instead, we find cold fronts thrust southward from the Canadian storm track, making runs into New England from north to south and dragging shallow cool air with them near the ground, but outrunning support aloft for these surges of chilly air.  The result is to find cold fronts that slow, stall and die over New England - that was the case Thursday night and - though with a bit less weakening - will be the case Sunday evening and night.

Thursday night's front, though dissipated, has left behind moisture favorable for Friday cumulus clouds and an onshore flow will create periods of clouds on Cape Cod.  A mild airmass will still support temperatures nearing 80 Friday afternoon as dry high pressure extends from Southern Canada across New England and into the Atlantic.  This bridged high pressure will come under the large and well defined jet stream ridge in the Eastern United States, securing mild air for the Northeast as we head into the weekend while a trough, or dip in the jet stream, across the Western United States brings cold Canadian energy to those areas.  By Saturday, our rebound of warmth will push temperatures into the 80s on an active southwest wind Saturday afternoon, ahead of yet another cool front that will be dying as it moves southward toward New England, but may be able to muster a few showers upon its passage late Saturday.  Behind this front, another push of slightly cooler - but still warmer than normal - air will settle into New England, once again delivering dry air that will keep rainfall out of the forecast as temperatures gradually warm early next week.  As for our chances for rainfall, large ridges of high pressure tend not only to bring warmth but also persistent dry air, and significant precipitation seems unlikely for the next week, while this ridge remains in charge of our weather pattern.  Eventually, the ridge will break down and when it does, this should allow a tap of moisture directed from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes to move east, and that may happen by the middle to end of next week.

Have a great weekend...maybe some more active weather to discuss later next week!

Technical Discussion: None today, but perhaps something more stimulating to discuss next week with a front stalling not far off the seaboard and a series of Caribbean waves moving northwest.  While trend is to take this out to sea before reaching New England right now, with placement of front so crucial and variable, we'll see what happens in guidance cycles over the weekend.

Matt

MATT'S TECHNICAL DISCUSSION - Updated Tuesday, September 18 at 1:20 PM

Pretty straight-forward in the short term.  Radiational cooling conditions not as ideal as past few nights with southerly wind - nearly calm at the surface but increasing aloft - bringing in warm advection.  This warm advection is quite gentle, however, and high temps should only be a few degrees higher regionwide on Wednesday, bringing many areas near or just a degree or two above normal.  Winds remain light with high pressure moving east of NewEng but a new anticyclonic center moving northeast out of PA.  Was concerned yesterday about significant intrusion of moist boundary layer air and attendant low level clouds to eastern Srn NewEng Tue Ngt/Wed but looks as tho it will be just too difficult to get this moisture northward in the prevailing ENE flow with the possible exception of Cape Cod where some of this moisture may back in overnight Tue Ngt with low clouds and fog into Wed AM.  Thereafter, well established dry air yields another beauty Wed.

Airmass changes in the coming days will be rather uneventful with such dry air owing to the building and amplifying ridge over the Eastern Seaboard.  Timing out when the deep warmth arrives in the coming several days will be the challenge for the forecast, as this time of the year carries challenges typical of NewEng autumn with heights forecasted to pump up significantly but the possibility of shallow Canadian air to keep sfc temps from rising as much as heights into the 590 decameter range would imply.  One feature that keeps me skeptical on any significant cold pushing into NewEng is the fact that these heights not only are high, but the ridge is very amplified which means there is a big difference between where the Westerlies steer storms into Southern and Central Canada, and how far south the associated cold fronts would have to push in order to bring a chunk of cooler air to NewEng.  The question on boundary layer temp revolves around two core questions: 1) placement of confluence aloft, and 2) wind direction.  The former is critical for how far east the anticyclone sets up early next week (Sunday through Tuesday) and how quickly it moves east of NewEng, putting us on the return flow side of the high and the latter is, of course, dependent upon the former but will be the determining factor in just how warm we get.  There will be a good tap of tropical moisture from the Gulf northward into the Great Lakes early next week, and as the western periphery of the ridge breaks down this moisture tap will shift east.  Interesting to note that if we could tap the brewing moisture along the southeastern US coastline in the inverted trof there we could really have some epic rainfall, but at this point one admitedly could make an equally strong argument that we should be wary of confidence in really bringing the moisture in at all just yet given the propensity for a return of Eastern Canada/NewEng anticyclones later in the period (middle of next week).  Later next week, however, logic would indicate that as the Western Atlanic ridge retracts east and relaxes a bit, and shortwave energy digs into the Ohio Valley, there would be a window of opportunity for tropical moisture to spread north, so this is certainly something to watch through our quiet stretch of weather for now.

Enjoy your day.

Matt


DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

Summer air has settled into New England and will remain in place through early next week.  This summer extension comes courtesy of a large "ridge," or northward protrusion, of the jet stream winds aloft.  Often referenced in these discussions, the jet stream acts as both a storm steering current of air, and as an atmospheric thermostat, separating cool air to the north from warm air to the south.

With the jet stream to our north and flowing swiftly from the Rocky Mountains northeast into Southern Canada, New England remains south of the thermostat - on the warm side - and out of the active storm path.  Instead, we find cold fronts thrust southward from the Canadian storm track, making runs into New England from north to south and dragging shallow cool air with them near the ground, but outrunning support aloft for these surges of chilly air.  The result is to find cold fronts that slow, stall and die over New England, and that's the case Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.  As a cold front sent sailing south from a storm pulling north and deeper into Canada makes its way southward, it will be marked by a wind shift from southwest to northwest, a broken band of clouds, and slightly cooler temperatures.  With little support for cold air from a jet stream that's keeping most of the cold air locked in Central Canada, this front will stall and dissipate Thursday night over Central and Southern New England, leaving favorable conditions for redevelopment of low altitude clouds and fog with somewhat milder temperatures than previous nights, while Northern New England transitions into cooler and drier air that will cool into the 40s under mainly clear skies.

This front, though dying, will still provide focus for moisture over Central and Southern New England on Friday, resulting in the development of healthy cumulus clouds mixed with sunshine, but still in a mild airmass that will support temperatures nearing 80 Friday afternoon as dry high pressure extends from Southern Canada across New England and into the Atlantic.  This bridged high pressure will come under the large and well defined jet stream ridge in the Eastern United States, securing mild air for the Northeast as we head into the weekend while a trough, or dip in the jet stream, across the Western United States brings cold Canadian energy to those areas.  By Saturday, our rebound of warmth will push temperatures into the 80s on an active southwest wind Saturday afternoon, ahead of yet another cool front that will be dying as it moves southward toward New England, but may be able to muster a few showers upon its passage late Saturday.  Behind this front, another push of slightly cooler - but still warmer than normal - air will settle into New England, once again delivering dry air that will keep rainfall out of the forecast as temperatures gradually warm early next week.  As for our chances for rainfall, large ridges of high pressure tend not only to bring warmth but also persistent dry air, and significant precipitation seems unlikely for the next week, while this ridge remains in charge of our weather pattern.  Eventually, the ridge will break down and when it does, this should allow a tap of moisture directed from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes to move east, and that may happen by the middle to end of next week.

Enjoy your Thursday.

Technical Discussion: None today.

Matt

MATT'S TECHNICAL DISCUSSION - Updated Tuesday, September 18 at 1:20 PM

Pretty straight-forward in the short term.  Radiational cooling conditions not as ideal as past few nights with southerly wind - nearly calm at the surface but increasing aloft - bringing in warm advection.  This warm advection is quite gentle, however, and high temps should only be a few degrees higher regionwide on Wednesday, bringing many areas near or just a degree or two above normal.  Winds remain light with high pressure moving east of NewEng but a new anticyclonic center moving northeast out of PA.  Was concerned yesterday about significant intrusion of moist boundary layer air and attendant low level clouds to eastern Srn NewEng Tue Ngt/Wed but looks as tho it will be just too difficult to get this moisture northward in the prevailing ENE flow with the possible exception of Cape Cod where some of this moisture may back in overnight Tue Ngt with low clouds and fog into Wed AM.  Thereafter, well established dry air yields another beauty Wed.

Airmass changes in the coming days will be rather uneventful with such dry air owing to the building and amplifying ridge over the Eastern Seaboard.  Timing out when the deep warmth arrives in the coming several days will be the challenge for the forecast, as this time of the year carries challenges typical of NewEng autumn with heights forecasted to pump up significantly but the possibility of shallow Canadian air to keep sfc temps from rising as much as heights into the 590 decameter range would imply.  One feature that keeps me skeptical on any significant cold pushing into NewEng is the fact that these heights not only are high, but the ridge is very amplified which means there is a big difference between where the Westerlies steer storms into Southern and Central Canada, and how far south the associated cold fronts would have to push in order to bring a chunk of cooler air to NewEng.  The question on boundary layer temp revolves around two core questions: 1) placement of confluence aloft, and 2) wind direction.  The former is critical for how far east the anticyclone sets up early next week (Sunday through Tuesday) and how quickly it moves east of NewEng, putting us on the return flow side of the high and the latter is, of course, dependent upon the former but will be the determining factor in just how warm we get.  There will be a good tap of tropical moisture from the Gulf northward into the Great Lakes early next week, and as the western periphery of the ridge breaks down this moisture tap will shift east.  Interesting to note that if we could tap the brewing moisture along the southeastern US coastline in the inverted trof there we could really have some epic rainfall, but at this point one admitedly could make an equally strong argument that we should be wary of confidence in really bringing the moisture in at all just yet given the propensity for a return of Eastern Canada/NewEng anticyclones later in the period (middle of next week).  Later next week, however, logic would indicate that as the Western Atlanic ridge retracts east and relaxes a bit, and shortwave energy digs into the Ohio Valley, there would be a window of opportunity for tropical moisture to spread north, so this is certainly something to watch through our quiet stretch of weather for now.

Enjoy your day.

Matt


THURSDAY PODCAST: DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the Quick Forecast Page, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3


DON'T TOUCH THAT CRATER! HUNDREDS SICKENED IN PERU

Peru_crater It seems only natural: a meteor crashes to earth, creates a crater and you - being a scientifically inclined and interested individual - grab your camera and head for the site!  That's exactly what 200 people near the village of Caracas, Peru, did when they heard a loud noise on Saturday and found a gaping crater approximately 65 feet wide and 23 feet deep on a nearby uninhabited plateau!  Aside from causing fear in many villagers that new items may crash from the sky, the experience was sickening - quite literally.  Two hundred people have suffered headaches, nausea and respiratory problems caused by toxic fumes from the crater and livestock have been responding strangely, as well.  Alien encounter?  Scientists seem to think the release of fumes may be linked to the very hot temperature the earth was heated to upon impact - click here to read the article from Al Jazeera News Source in the Middle East, the Guardian out of Britain, or the Associated Press article on Yahoo News.

Have a comment on this blog item?  Add it to the comments section of this post.


DON'T TOUCH THAT CRATER! HUNDREDS SICKENED IN PERU

Peru_crater It seems only natural: a meteor crashes to earth, creates a crater and you - being a scientifically inclined and interested individual - grab your camera and head for the site!  That's exactly what 200 people near the village of Caracas, Peru, did when they heard a loud noise on Saturday and found a gaping crater approximately 65 feet wide and 23 feet deep on a nearby uninhabited plateau!  Aside from causing fear in many villagers that new items may crash from the sky, the experience was sickening - quite literally.  Two hundred people have suffered headaches, nausea and respiratory problems caused by toxic fumes from the crater and livestock have been responding strangely, as well.  Alien encounter?  Scientists seem to think the release of fumes may be linked to the very hot temperature the earth was heated to upon impact - click here to read the article from Al Jazeera News Source in the Middle East, the Guardian out of Britain, or the Associated Press article on Yahoo News.

Have a comment on this blog item?  Add it to the comments section of this post.