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KILLINGTON RESORT BLANKETED WITH NINETY-PLUS INCHES OF DECEMBER SNOW

KILLINGTON, Vt. (December 31, 2007) – For only the second time in the past 20 years, Vermont’s Killington Resort has received 92.5 inches of snow for the month of December with 11.5 inches falling on the final day of the year.

The last time Killington received more than 90 inches of December snow was in 2003 when a record 96 inches were recorded for the month.

Skiers and riders are rejoicing the powder conditions as the first of two significant winter storms rolled up the East Coast Sunday night into Monday morning. The second storm, in which the National Weather Service has already issued a Winter Storm Watch, is expected to arrive New Year’s day and cover the largest ski resort in the east with more than six inches of additional snow.

To date, Killington has received 106.5 inches of snow with an average mid-mountain base depth of 38-46 inches. Killington averages 250 inches annually. Currently Killington has 181 of 200 open trails with more terrain opening as additional snowfall is received.

About Killington Resort - The largest ski and snowboard resort in eastern North America, Killington features diverse terrain, an expansive lift network, the most extensive snowmaking system in the world and numerous off-mountain activities, including après, dining, shopping and lodging options. www.Killington.com.

HEAVY SNOW ANTICIPATED NEW YEAR'S DAY AND EVENING...DEEP COLD LATER THIS WEEK TO BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG WARMTH

MONDAY MORNING UPDATE:  Happy New Year!  A more extensive update to follow as soon as I can get it out, but while there will have to be some changes to the forecast I posted yesterday regarding accumulation amounts, this is still a dynamic and potent storm that will try to throw a few surprises our way.  Perhaps the most important factor here is the very favorable Atlantic Ocean inflow of moisture that sets up late this afternoon and evening that will result in a sudden and marked increase in snowfall amounts...probably somewhere in Northeastern Massachusetts.  The end result will be for me to cut WAY back on accumulations along and near the Massachusetts Turnpike into Boston, with the axis of heaviest snow now expected farther northeast than I thought 24 hours ago - focused from SE New Hampshire up the Maine coastal plain.  I'll get more out soon!

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The break between weather systems is perfectly timed for our New Year's Eve, with mostly dry weather expected for many communities, excepting mountainous locales where snow showers and squalls will continue into the first part of the night.  Elsewhere, the weather will cooperate for First Night festivities before a pounding snow returns to many spots on New Year's Day, followed by a bitter blast of cold, then eventually surging warmth by next week through next weekend.

For now, the departing area of low pressure that moved south of New England did its dirty work in the form of over a foot of snow in Central New Hampshire, and in parts of Eastern Maine.  Six to ten inch amounts were common in Central New England, otherwise, though there was a sharp dropoff in far Southern New Hampshire and parts of Northern Massachusetts points southward, where the combination of a mix with rain and a dry slot both held accumulations in check.  With that storm exiting stage right, cool air remains in place across New England, though deep cold is still locked in Canada, meaning some melting is taking place regionwide on our roads and walkways, and a refreeze will slowly occur overnight Monday night.  Though that will mean patches of black ice, conditions couldn't be much better for First Night festivities - warm enough for revelers to enjoy, and cold enough to keep ice sculptures looking wonderfully.  Skies will gradually clear away from the mountainous terrain where a few snow showers will continue, and winds will gradually subside between 5 PM and midnight.  This will be a good combination for cooling in deeper valleys of especially Northern and Central New England, where temperatures will cool into the teens, while they hold in the 20s farther south.

Marching across the Midwest as of this writing is our next disturbance - innocent looking and rather small in coverage, but a nasty and intense upper level system that's packed with energy and ready to unleash it.  As this system approaches the Northeast, it will strengthen considerably, developing a closed counter-clockwise circulation and eventually tapping Atlantic moisture.  The combination of energy and moisture will result in a round of very heavy precipitation later Tuesday.  In advance of the system, some sun will probably shine early New Year's Day, then fade behind quickly advancing and thickening clouds.  By midday, snow will be developing in most of Western New England, moving east out of New York State and not yet at maximum intensity.  At the same time, in response to the strong upper level disturbance, a surface low pressure center will develop near the Connecticut South Coast and will move east across extreme Southern New England, where it will cross Provincetown, Massachusetts while strengthening Tuesday evening.  There are a few results from this process.  The first is to cause intensifying precipitation simply by virtue of the strong upper level disturbance, and the difference between the cold air it brings aloft, and the relatively warm air near ground level.  This difference in temperature with height is referred to as instability, and is the same parameter we speak of with regard to thunderstorm growth - evidence that the atmosphere will be primed for deep and healthy cloud development.  The next factor is the developing "cyclonic," or storm, circulation that will be rotating counter-clockwise.  This will pull ocean moisture in, especially when considering that the strong upper level disturbance will really result in a total of three surface storm centers - one in New York, one moving over far Southern New England, and another over the ocean.  Together, the three of these will develop a conveyor belt of moisture off the Atlantic and into New England.  Finally, there will be a rather stark contrast of air over New England - relatively warm and moist air to the south and southeast of the storm, and colder, drier air to the north.  As the storm strengthens, this dividing line of air is going to align at all levels of the atmosphere later Tuesday, creating a sharp rain/snow line.  In the process leading to that convergence of airmasses, though, there is some ambiguity, and this lack of clarity will be the reason for uncertainty leading right up to the storm Tuesday afternoon.  At issue here is how long the relatively warm surface air - in the middle and upper 30s - can hold on in especially Southeast New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts.  Though computer guidance suggests that warmth, helped by a southeast flow during Tuesday afternoon, will hold on enough for rain before a change to snow, I have trouble believing that scenario.  While rain would seem likely in many of these Eastern areas to start, a strengthening storm serves as a vacuum, pulling air toward its center, and a northeast or even north wind seems likely to develop Tuesday afternoon, tugging cold air toward the storm center and allowing for a quick flip to big, fat snowflakes that will become heavy quickly.  These northeast winds will hold marginally cold enough air in place, especially from the Massachusetts Turnpike northward, for a blast of heavy snow.  As the moist Atlantic inflow strengthens, snow will easily reach all the way to the Canadian border, and most of Central and Southern New England will find a period of heavy middle afternoon, late afternoon, and evening snow, developing from west to east between midday and 2 PM, respectively.  Farther south and closer to the coastline, around the immediate Boston area, rain will hold on longer, but still should snap to snow as the storm strengthens over Provincetown Harbor, and should provide a couple hours of intense snow as moisture wraps around the storm center.  This wraparound snow would be less intense the farther south one is, but in the hardest hit areas - those who see mostly snow in Central and Southern Vermont/New Hampshire, Southern Maine and Northern Massachusetts, Tuesday late afternoon and evening snowfall rates may reach two to three inches per hour!  This would drop nearly a foot of snow in only 6 hours, and would create a travel mess through the first half of Tuesday night as road crews would fight to get caught up for much of the night, even though the heaviest snow would be done by 8 PM. 

Overnight Tuesday night, mostly cloudy skies would prevail, and snow squalls would be likely in Northern New England after midnight, perhaps carrying into Central New England in the predawn hours with the passage of an arctic cold front.  This finally taps deep arctic air from Canada, sending it southward with temperatures quickly plummeting to the single digits north, teens central and 20s south by Wednesday morning, and slick spots where the squalls moved through.  Wednesday will follow suit with an active northwest wind and a cold day of highs only in the 20s for most spots and teens north, with plenty of clouds mixed with Central and Southern New England breaks of sun.  Winds will gust to 40 mph at times, creating wind chill values in the single digits for many spots.

Believe it or not, colder air will follow!  A reinforcing cold front Wednesday night will drive another shot of Canadian chill southward, driving low temperatures to either side of zero in many spots by Thursday morning, and holding daytime high temperatures in the teens to near 20 for most of us, single digits in Northern New England with an active wind that will keep wind chills below zero through much of the day.  This cold will moderate somewhat by Friday with a few high clouds the indication of warmer air making a comeback, and a steady warming trend will follow for the weekend.

Of course, one extreme begets the next - doesn't that make sense in a season like this?  Warmth over the Equatorial Pacific will move into the Western United States and Southern Canada next week, trudging east and moving into New England as the week wears on.  Not only are a few if not several days in the 50s likely, but if the forecast verifies based upon the predicted weather pattern, 60s would even be a possibility by next weekend for some of New England!  Winter lovers shouldn't fear, though, signs are that while the warmup may last several days, cold air returns by the end of the month.

That's all for today.  A very happy, healthy and Blessed New Year to one and all.  I'll be off tomorrow, but will issue a quick update if needed for the storm.

Matt

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY STORM TO DROP BETWEEN HALF A FOOT AND ONE FOOT OF SNOW TO MANY AREAS

SUNDAY MIDDAY UPDATE:  Ready for another winter weather event across New England as low pressure will eject off the coastline around Virginia Beach, VA, tonight, then strengthen as it moves just barely SE of Nantucket.  This track will favor warmth and moisture thrusting northward ahead of the storm to produce a swath of snow developing 9 PM to midnight Sunday night and becoming heavier after midnight.  The counter-clockwise circulation of air around the storm center will carry warmer ocean air onshore, prompting a change from snow to rain in Southeastern Massachusetts, the South Coast of New England, and the immediate coastlines of MA up to about Cape Ann by pre-dawn Monday morning.  Elsewhere, snow will still fall heavily at times through Monday morning, with some mixing with sleet from Hartford to Worcester to Boston, though unlikely to find that mix farther north where the snow will be wet, heavy and therefore slow to accumulate (relative to a fluffy snow) but enough precipitation will fall for a moderate snow event of 6"-12" in many spots.  The storm will wind down by Monday afternoon.  Accumulations should stack up as follows: nothing after a brief burst of snow is washed away in Southeastern MA/South coast of New England, 2"-3" Hartford to Boston, but closer to 5" or 6" just north of that line and around half a foot along the Massachusetts Turnpike through Worcester to about Lawrence, then amounts increasing to a "jackpot" of 10"-12" from Southern Vermont through Southern and Central New Hampshire and through Coastal Maine and within about 50 miles of the coast.  Farther north, amounts will gradually diminish due to less moisture making it that far north, but near or perhaps just an inch or two shy of half a foot still seems probable Burlington, VT, to Berlin, NH, to Northern ME.  I'll be on NECN Monday morning with the updates. -Matt

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Friday's Discussion:  New England enjoys a breather on Friday before our next storm Friday night...though much of the weekend is looking quiet, too, as energy and moisture converge to our south and west and take a bit longer than the ongoing parade of disturbances typically has to reach New England.  A shot of cold air is expected by the middle of next week and the start of the New Year, before bulging warmth invades New England for the middle of January.

Thursday afternoon and evening's snow verified a bit farther north than I'd expected, but the net result turned out quite similar for most spots - a coating of snow that froze to ice for slick spots that lingered into Friday morning for many communities throughout the six-state region, but especially for Massachusetts points north. Increasing sunshine and an active but certainly not overbearing breeze sends the signal that Friday will bring a break in the action for the Northeast.  Though the weather pattern is expected to remain active for quite some time to come, today's weather is the first in what will be a few breaks between systems in the next several days.  The overall driving force of the weather pattern nationwide continues to be a fast jet stream wind, roaring in off the Pacific Ocean with a parade of disturbances, and dipping southward as a jet stream "trough" or dip in the Western United States.  This pattern resulted in a dandy of a snowstorm for the foothills of the Rockies of Colorado on Thursday, and the same storm is winding through the nation's midsection on Friday, delivering heavy snow to Chicago, heavy rain to Indianapolis, and widespread heavy rain and thunder to the Tennessee Valley.  All of these spots are likely to find flight delays, and you can check for yourself with the links under the Travel Interests section on the left side of this page.  Meanwhile, ahead of the deep jet stream trough, a "ridge," or bump, continues to hold across the Eastern United States.  Along with a ridge comes warmth, and that warm air contributed to the near-record temperature of 80 in Orlando, Florida, yesterday - the old record was 82 from 1990.  As a constant reminder that weather - even extreme weather - works in cycles, the record cold temperature of -23 degrees F in Alamosa, Colorado, on Thursday also broke a record from the very same date in what year?  You guessed it...1990.  If it's older records you're more impressed with, Waco, Texas, delivered with a temperature of 24 degrees, tying the old record from way back in 1938. 

This clash of cold and warm air provides a battleground ripe for storm development, and between the two airmasses a corridor of southerly winds carry moisture in from the Pacific and out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Though New England has been between disturbances on Friday with sunshine, clouds will thicken late in the day ahead of the incoming energetic jet stream disturbance, and its surface storm reflection moving east through the Ohio Valley.  The deep tropical moisture this storm has tapped will continue to push northeast toward New England, and will make great progress as it collides with only weak lingering cool air in the Northeast.  In fact, to produce snow Friday night, deep cold would have to be in place when considering the thrust of tropical air moving northward, and as Friday afternoon highs climb into the 40s and there's no surging cold out of Canada, this should be a sure sign, especially with a developing southeast wind, that the cold won't be deep enough in either Southern or Central New England to hold, meaning rain will be the predominant type of precipitation as it moves in after midnight.  Farther north, across Central Vermont and New Hampshire, and most of Maine, enough cold air will be in place for snow Friday night when precipitation begins after midnight, but warmth carried northward several thousand feet off the ground will likely result in a change to sleet and freezing rain for all but the North Country as the night wears on.  In Northern New England communities that remain mostly snow, a solid half foot is certainly a possibility, while much greater precipitation totals will be recorded in the plain rain swath, where over an inch of precipitation may result in hydroplaning concerns and some urban and poor drainage flooding in Northern Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire, where snowmelt will continue.

By Saturday, precipitation will be over for most spots by early to mid-morning from west to east, and the storm center will be winding up north of New England.  Interestingly enough, Friday night's storm will have developed along an area where cold air and warm air have mixed - called an "occlusion" in the world of meteorology, and the product of a mature storm that has mixed the cold and warm air that originally prompted its development.  The result should be for lots of clouds and temperatures near 40 in Northern New England, but some breaks of sun and temperatures well into the 40s farther south with an active southwest wind.  It's not impossible that some far southern areas may even approach or exceed 50 Saturday afternoon as sunshine breaks out for much of Central and Southern New England.  Saturday evening in the Meadowlands for the Pats looks awesome for breaking all the records - dry, partly cloudy, temps in the 40s.  There will be a 15-20 mph wind to contend with, but that'll be about the only negative factor.

Thereafter, the combination of energy digging back into the Western U.S. trough and the departing strong storm from New England will leave New England in another break between systems for a time, quiet Saturday night and into Sunday.  By Sunday night, however, the next energetic disturbance looks to be in line, ejecting northeast out of the nation's midsection once again.  This disturbance seems less likely to be loaded with Gulf moisture, but still will bring some Pacific moisture with it and won't have nearly as strong of a warm surge of air, meaning after clouds thicken later Sunday, any precipitation that makes it into New England should fall as snow Sunday night.

Beyond that, there are still questions as to how the following energetic disturbances will interact on Monday, but it looks right now like another break in the action with perhaps plenty of clouds lingering and temperatures rather neutral in the 30s.  This would bode well for New Year's Eve, keeping any bone-chilling cold out of New England and hopefully maintaining just the right temperature to enjoy, but maintain, the First Night ice sculptures in so many New England cities!  More energy will follow later Monday night and Tuesday, at least by the way the timing looks this far out, and that would favor another round of wintry mix, but uncertainty increases rather substantially later Monday through midweek.

The overall pattern, however, looks a bit more defined, and that would be to bring a shot of more significant cold into the Northeast for the middle of next week into the start of 2008, with intense warmth riding northward through the Western and Central United States in a highly amplified pattern of deep cold east and deep warmth west.  At this juncture, it appears as though that deep warmth should move east across the Northeast through the first half of January, and if it comes in as strong as it looks right now, it could spell record warmth.  We'll see.

Enjoy a wonderful weekend.
Matt

MEISTER HUT WINE DINNERS OFF FINE DINING AT CRANMORE'S SUMMIT

NORTH CONWAY, NH - Cranmore Mountain Resort in North Conway, NH, now celebrating its 70th platinum anniversary year, is launching its first ever series of Meister Hut Wine dinners. Taking place in the 1940s-era log cabin at its summit, Cranmore's wine dinners offer a one-of-a-kind fine dining experience in front of a fieldstone fireplace with live music and spectacular views of the lights of North Conway Village. On three select dates - January 19, February 16 and March 1 - guests will enjoy a four-course dinner with wine pairings in the rustic setting of the Meister Hut. A selection of five entrees will be offered and will be accompanied by wine carefully matched to each course. Round trip lift access will be offered on the high-speed express quad. The dinner is open to skiers and non-skiers alike with the welcome reception starting at 6pm each evening. "Cranmore is fortunate to have both the setting and the culinary talents to offer guests an unparalleled dining experience," stated Cranmore's Glenn Harmon. "Skiers have been taking in the awesome views at the Meister Hut during the day for over 60 years and now they can do the same at night at these special dinners." With extremely limited seating, advance reservations are required. Guests are encouraged to make reservations immediately to secure their space for the date of their choice. Reservations are accepted by phone at 1-800-SUN-N-SKI ext. 227 or in person at the Resort's Guest Services Desk. Reservations are accepted until the Tuesday before each date with a 4pm cut off time to do so. The prix-fixe dinners cost $99 for dinner with wine pairings including tax, tip, and gratuity and round-trip lift transportation. Those wishing to combine a ski weekend with their wine dinner may purchase a package with dinner and a 2-day lift ticket for only $175 per person, a $22 savings. Guests will enjoy a menu never before offered at the Meister Hut, including Roasted Butternut Squash with Sautéed Radicchio, Veal Saltimbocca, Pan-seared N.Y. Sirloin au Poivre, Sattler Chicken Breast, Crabmeat Stuffed Sole with Poached Jumbo Shrimp topped with a Lobster Sherry Cream Sauce, and other outstanding culinary delights. Four courses of wine will accompany the meal, including selections such as Prosecco, M&R NV (Italy); Old Vine Rose, Red Guitar, 2006 (Navarra Spain); Vouvray, Chateau de Monfort, 2006 (Loire, France); Pinot Blanc, Trimbach 2004 (Alsace) and more. The meal will be rounded out with a dessert du jour and a glass of Tawny Port. Cranmore Mountain is located in the heart of North Conway Village, NH. The resort, founded in 1937, is celebrating its 70th year of continuous operation. For more information, visit www.cranmore.com or call 1-800-SUN-N-SKI. Contact Info: Kathy Bennett Public Relations 603-356-8561 kbennett@boothcreek.com

Cranmore Mountain Resort is located just two-and-a-half hours north of Boston at One Skimobile Road, off Route 16, in the village of North Conway, New Hampshire. Cranmore, the mountain of choice for families visiting Mount Washington Valley, is part of the Booth Creek family of resorts that include: Waterville Valley, Northstar-at-Tahoe, and Sierra-at-Tahoe.

WINTRY MIX ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST OF WEEKEND TO BE RATHER QUIET

New England enjoys a breather on Friday before our next storm Friday night...though much of the weekend is looking quiet, too, as energy and moisture converge to our south and west and take a bit longer than the ongoing parade of disturbances typically has to reach New England.  A shot of cold air is expected by the middle of next week and the start of the New Year, before bulging warmth invades New England for the middle of January.

Thursday afternoon and evening's snow verified a bit farther north than I'd expected, but the net result turned out quite similar for most spots - a coating of snow that froze to ice for slick spots that lingered into Friday morning for many communities throughout the six-state region, but especially for Massachusetts points north.  Increasing sunshine and an active but certainly not overbearing breeze sends the signal that Friday will bring a break in the action for the Northeast.  Though the weather pattern is expected to remain active for quite some time to come, today's weather is the first in what will be a few breaks between systems in the next several days.  The overall driving force of the weather pattern nationwide continues to be a fast jet stream wind, roaring in off the Pacific Ocean with a parade of disturbances, and dipping southward as a jet stream "trough" or dip in the Western United States.  This pattern resulted in a dandy of a snowstorm for the foothills of the Rockies of Colorado on Thursday, and the same storm is winding through the nation's midsection on Friday, delivering heavy snow to Chicago, heavy rain to Indianapolis, and widespread heavy rain and thunder to the Tennessee Valley.  All of these spots are likely to find flight delays, and you can check for yourself with the links under the Travel Interests section on the left side of this page.  Meanwhile, ahead of the deep jet stream trough, a "ridge," or bump, continues to hold across the Eastern United States.  Along with a ridge comes warmth, and that warm air contributed to the near-record temperature of 80 in Orlando, Florida, yesterday - the old record was 82 from 1990.  As a constant reminder that weather - even extreme weather - works in cycles, the record cold temperature of -23 degrees F in Alamosa, Colorado, on Thursday also broke a record from the very same date in what year?  You guessed it...1990.  If it's older records you're more impressed with, Waco, Texas, delivered with a temperature of 24 degrees, tying the old record from way back in 1938. 

This clash of cold and warm air provides a battleground ripe for storm development, and between the two airmasses a corridor of southerly winds carry moisture in from the Pacific and out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Though New England has been between disturbances on Friday with sunshine, clouds will thicken late in the day ahead of the incoming energetic jet stream disturbance, and its surface storm reflection moving east through the Ohio Valley.  The deep tropical moisture this storm has tapped will continue to push northeast toward New England, and will make great progress as it collides with only weak lingering cool air in the Northeast.  In fact, to produce snow Friday night, deep cold would have to be in place when considering the thrust of tropical air moving northward, and as Friday afternoon highs climb into the 40s and there's no surging cold out of Canada, this should be a sure sign, especially with a developing southeast wind, that the cold won't be deep enough in either Southern or Central New England to hold, meaning rain will be the predominant type of precipitation as it moves in after midnight.  Farther north, across Central Vermont and New Hampshire, and most of Maine, enough cold air will be in place for snow Friday night when precipitation begins after midnight, but warmth carried northward several thousand feet off the ground will likely result in a change to sleet and freezing rain for all but the North Country as the night wears on.  In Northern New England communities that remain mostly snow, a solid half foot is certainly a possibility, while much greater precipitation totals will be recorded in the plain rain swath, where over an inch of precipitation may result in hydroplaning concerns and some urban and poor drainage flooding in Northern Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire, where snowmelt will continue.

By Saturday, precipitation will be over for most spots by early to mid-morning from west to east, and the storm center will be winding up north of New England.  Interestingly enough, Friday night's storm will have developed along an area where cold air and warm air have mixed - called an "occlusion" in the world of meteorology, and the product of a mature storm that has mixed the cold and warm air that originally prompted its development.  The result should be for lots of clouds and temperatures near 40 in Northern New England, but some breaks of sun and temperatures well into the 40s farther south with an active southwest wind.  It's not impossible that some far southern areas may even approach or exceed 50 Saturday afternoon as sunshine breaks out for much of Central and Southern New England.  Saturday evening in the Meadowlands for the Pats looks awesome for breaking all the records - dry, partly cloudy, temps in the 40s.  There will be a 15-20 mph wind to contend with, but that'll be about the only negative factor.

Thereafter, the combination of energy digging back into the Western U.S. trough and the departing strong storm from New England will leave New England in another break between systems for a time, quiet Saturday night and into Sunday.  By Sunday night, however, the next energetic disturbance looks to be in line, ejecting northeast out of the nation's midsection once again.  This disturbance seems less likely to be loaded with Gulf moisture, but still will bring some Pacific moisture with it and won't have nearly as strong of a warm surge of air, meaning after clouds thicken later Sunday, any precipitation that makes it into New England should fall as snow Sunday night.

Beyond that, there are still questions as to how the following energetic disturbances will interact on Monday, but it looks right now like another break in the action with perhaps plenty of clouds lingering and temperatures rather neutral in the 30s.  This would bode well for New Year's Eve, keeping any bone-chilling cold out of New England and hopefully maintaining just the right temperature to enjoy, but maintain, the First Night ice sculptures in so many New England cities!  More energy will follow later Monday night and Tuesday, at least by the way the timing looks this far out, and that would favor another round of wintry mix, but uncertainty increases rather substantially later Monday through midweek.

The overall pattern, however, looks a bit more defined, and that would be to bring a shot of more significant cold into the Northeast for the middle of next week into the start of 2008, with intense warmth riding northward through the Western and Central United States in a highly amplified pattern of deep cold east and deep warmth west.  At this juncture, it appears as though that deep warmth should move east across the Northeast through the first half of January, and if it comes in as strong as it looks right now, it could spell record warmth.  We'll see.

Enjoy a wonderful weekend.
Matt

PULSE OF SNOW TO ICE MANY ROADS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ROLLS ON

A very active and fast moving weather pattern delivers a one-two punch to New England for our Thursday, having dropped a combination of light snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain early in the morning, creating slippery travel spots in Central New England.  The afternoon and evening shot of winter weather is expected to leave treacherous travel in Central New England before a repeating pattern of disturbances, and breaks between them, sets up into next week.

The first area of low pressure was well-developed at the surface, and strengthening as it moved southeast of Nantucket.  This storm thrust moisture northward, tapping available moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico, and produced moderate precipitation amounts as much as a half inch around Boston, Massachusetts.  As that storm center continued to truck out across the Atlantic, and continues to strengthen, the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm continues to deliver a brisk northeast wind to New England, carrying colder air southward and bringing what was a rain/snow line in Southern New Hampshire and Maine earlier Thursday morning southward across Central and Southern New England.  Though that cooling means little for the first part of the day, it will be quite important as the next disturbance moves through New England.  The colder air in place will establish an atmosphere more conducive for snow, and though many Southern New England locales are likely to begin with raindrops, heavier precipitation will interact with colder air and this will mean a change to snowflakes, accumulating quickly to a few inches over the course of only about six hours, moving in from either side of midday west and early afternoon east, and lasting until 7 or 8 o'clock east.  Near the coastline of Eastern Massachusetts, and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike, enough warm air will remain for mostly rain before a change to big, fat snowflakes and a quick accumulation of between a solid coating and one or two inches of snow.  Farther south, less precipitation will fall and most of it will be in the form of liquid.  Farther north, however, temperatures near freezing and road treatments from earlier Thursday will allow snow to melt at first, forming a film of liquid.  As temperatures drop and snow continues, this film will freeze into a layer of ice, and snow will accumulate on top of it for treacherous road conditions from Northern Massachusetts points north.  Total accumulations will, of course, be highest in these colder locales.  Drier air moving southward Thursday night will allow breaks in the clouds around midnight and gradual clearing into the early morning.  This, of course, will allow temperatures to drop and icy spots to stay in place, perhaps even expanding to the communities of Southern New England that found rain for most of the event.

Friday brings a break in the action for the Northeast.  Though the weather pattern is expected to remain active for quite some time to come, there will be plenty of breaks between systems.  The overall driving force of the weather pattern nationwide is a fast jet stream wind, roaring in off the Pacific Ocean with a parade of disturbances, and dipping southward as a jet stream "trough" or dip in the Western United States.  Such a pattern favors storm development along the Front Range of the Rockies, and ski areas are adding to their snow totals there, while a jet stream "ridge," or bump, develops in the Eastern United States.  Along with a ridge comes warmth, and that warm air remains established in the Southeastern United States, available to developing storms and occasionally making runs farther north toward New England.  Between the two airmasses is a corridor of southwest wind carrying moisture in from the Pacific and out of the Gulf of Mexico, also available for storm development, and briefly tapped into both by Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon's disturbances.  Though New England will be between disturbances on Friday with early sunshine, clouds will thicken later in the day ahead of yet another energetic jet stream disturbance, and its surface storm reflection.  This strengthening storm will tap deep tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, prompting widespread thunderstorms in the Southeastern United States, and ushering that warmth and moisture northward toward New England and cool air in the Northeast.  To produce snow Friday night, deep cold would have to be in place when considering the thrust of tropical air moving northward, and the cold probably won't be deep enough in either Southern or Central New England Friday night, meaning rain will be the predominant type of precipitation, especially with a strengthening southeast wind ahead of the storm center.  Farther north and inland, across Central Vermont and New Hampshire, and most of Maine, enough cold air will be in place for snow Friday night when precipitation begins around midnight, but warmth carried northward several thousand feet off the ground will likely result in a change to sleet and freezing rain for all but the North Country as the night wears on.  In Northern New England communities that remain mostly snow, a solid half foot is certainly a possibility, while much greater precipitation totals will be recorded in the plain rain swath, where over an inch of precipitation may result in hydroplaning concerns and some urban and poor drainage flooding in Northern Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire, where snowmelt will continue.

By Saturday, precipitation will be over for most spots, and the storm center will be winding up north of New England.  Interestingly enough, Friday night's storm will have developed along an area where cold air and warm air have mixed - called an "occlusion" in the world of meteorology, and the product of a mature storm that has mixed the cold and warm air that originally prompted its development.  The result should be for lots of clouds and temperatures near 40 in Northern New England, but some breaks of sun and temperatures well into the 40s farther south with an active southwest wind.  It's not impossible that some far southern areas may even approach 50 Saturday afternoon, but that will depend upon how much sunshine can break out farther south.

Thereafter, the combination of energy digging back into the Western U.S. trough and the departing strong storm from New England will leave New England in another break between systems for a time, quiet Saturday night and into Sunday.  By Sunday night, however, the next energetic disturbance looks to be in line.  Admittedly, there's some uncertainty here as to just how quickly this disturbance moves east, and exactly what path it takes, though at this point, given the anticipated fast winds aloft, a quick move east seems most likely, returning moisture to New England as thickening clouds later Sunday, and bringing precipitation in as snow Sunday night for much of New England.

Beyond that, there are still questions as to how the following energetic disturbances will interact on Monday, and whether a larger storm will take shape along the coastline, but with so much energy and an active jet stream pattern, the potential certainly is there.  A shot of deep cold is expected to follow for the middle of next week into the start of 2008, though intense warmth appears likely to ride northward through the Western and Central United States in a highly amplified pattern of deep cold east and deep warmth west.  At this juncture, it appears as though that deep warmth should move east across the Northeast through the first half of January.

Have a great day.
Matt

QUIET CHRISTMAS, BUT INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN LAY AHEAD...WITH A TREND BACK TO COLD BY EARLY JANUARY LIKELY

Note:  One day of rest tomorrow (Wednesday) so no discussion then.  Back Thursday.

The overall weather pattern this week is one of potential, with numerous strong disturbances racing across the nation, but the questions this week will revolve around what areas the potential is realized.  That is, the jet stream winds that steer our storms and separate cold air to the north from warm to the south, will remain fast moving, and remain rather mobile as frequent Pacific disturbances come careening in off the ocean and dig across the Lower 48.  These disturbances will present the potential for winter mixes in the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest and Plains States, and strong thunderstorms in the Southeast, while New England remains on the northern fringe of these disturbances, with the determining factor in the Northeast being how far north each system ejects off the coastline.

Winds have dropped off considerably from where they were on Monday, still breezy from the west but much lighter in intensity.  Nonetheless, the combination of an active wind and milder temperatures has really meant a reduction in snow cover over the last 48 hours, and you can see this for yourself in the National Snow Analysis link under the Recreation Interests links section on the left side of this page.  Otherwise, clouds have been rather stubborn in western New England and gradually breaking up for increasing sunshine elsewhere, and the absence of any deep cold has meant temperatures well above the melting mark yet again, and the gradual meltdown continues.  Though a few ice jams were reported in Northern Vermont on Monday, the cooler temperatures for our Christmas Day have meant a substantial reduction in any threat of jamming today.  Of course, the gradual process of daytime melt and night refreeze will continue through most of the week, meaning most of us will at least want to stay cognizant of black ice and slippery spots each night and early morning. 

Perhaps the most interesting setup of the week will come late Wednesday and Wednesday night, as one of the many energetic disturbances riding the jet stream winds reaches the coast.  This system is likely to throw increasing clouds into Southern New England later Wednesday after morning sunshine, and as the system ejects off the Mid-Atlantic coast it will strengthen and quickly gain moisture.  The northern edge of the associated precipitation will likely extend into Southern New England overnight Wednesday night, but will remain quite light and extend roughly from Boston to Hartford as some light snow with little accumulation likely, then fall as raindrops from the South Shore to Southeast Connecticut points south and east.  Though any northern change in storm track would boost amounts, this appears the most likely scenario at this juncture.

As that coastal creature pulls away on Thursday, another energetic disturbance will be moving east across Indiana, and into New England late Thursday.  Mostly cloudy skies are likely to be the result on Thursday with a period of afternoon and evening rain and snow possible as the disturbance moves overhead, but at this point a lack of deep tropical moisture will likely limit how much can fall.  The active weather pattern will continue as we head toward the weekend, though the stakes will be raised a bit as a dome of high pressure dives south out of Northern Canada and into Southeastern Canada while strengthening - a sign of deeper cold building southward.  This cold will try to fall over New England Friday and into the weekend at the same time moisture and warmth rides northward ahead of a rather intense disturbance moving through the Central Plains.  The initial result of this disturbance in New England will probably be minor on Friday, as any collision of warm and cool air would be focused to our west, meaning clouds and perhaps some light precipitation late would be the most immediate effects on New England, but heavier precipitation would be possible Friday night or Saturday depending upon the timing of the disturbance, and what type of precipitation will depend largely upon just how much warmth can be pulled northward ahead of the appraoching storm center. 

Nonetheless, a pattern of frequent disturbances will continue for the next couple of weeks, and colder air will rebuild into the Northeast by early January, so it does appear as though this thaw will not be the pattern for the remainder of the winter.

Merry Christmas!  See you back here on Thursday.

Matt

CHRISTMAS TUESDAY PODCAST: QUIET CHRISTMAS, BUT INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN LAY AHEAD...WITH A TREND BACK TO COLD BY EARLY JANUARY LIKELY

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the Quick Forecast Page, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

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The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3

GRADUAL MELTDOWN MUCH OF THIS WEEK...QUIET CHRISTMAS WEATHER REGIONWIDE

The overall weather pattern this week is one of potential, with numerous strong disturbances racing across the nation, but the questions this week will revolve around what areas the potential is realized.  That is, the jet stream winds that steer our storms and separate cold air to the north from warm to the south, will remain fast moving, and remain rather mobile as frequent Pacific disturbances come careening in off the ocean and dig across the Lower 48.  These disturbances will present the potential for winter mixes in the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest and Plains States, and strong thunderstorms in the Southeast, while New England remains on the northern fringe of these disturbances, with the determining factor in the Northeast being how far north each system ejects off the coastline.

For now, a large storm continues to wind northeast and away from New England, leaving behind an active wind wrapping around the belly of the storm, blowing from the southwest but carrying in colder air.  This is an odd combination - cold air coming in on a southwest wind - in New England, but is the result of a mature storm so intensely wound in Eastern Canada that the air around it is rotating out of South-Central Canada, into the Midwest, across the Ohio Valley and through New England en route to the strong low pressure center.  Of course, a path that round-about is not a direct shot from Canada by any means, and therefore the air isn't nearly as cold as it otherwise would be, meaning the next few days will be cool, but not cold.  Winds gusting to 40 mph Monday afternoon will be strong enough to blow lightweight objects around, but not to cause any more damage like what was seen in Southern New England Sunday evening.  The modified air moving through New England will warm with the help of sunshine in Southern and Eastern New England, reaching the 40s in most of these communities, while colder air a few thousand feet above our heads allows for development of plenty of clouds in Northern, Western and parts of Central New England, meaning temperatures will stay cooler beneath mostly gray skies in these locales.

As the storm pulls farther away from New England Christmas Eve, wind will subside, but only gradually.  The active wind early in the night will add a nip to the air as actual temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s for most areas will feel like the 20s with the wind for a time before the breezes subside after midnight.  With temperatures dropping below the freezing mark in many communities, use caution for patches of black ice, especially on walkways and driveways of churches, friends' houses, etc.  A cool start Christmas morning will also be a quiet one - and a quiet day will result, meaning no travel problems are expected regionwide.  High pressure cresting over the Mid-Atlantic will keep a cool but dry flow of air in place on a lighter westerly wind, ensuring sunshine for one and all.

The gradual process of daytime melt and night refreeze will continue through most of the week, meaning most of us will at least want to stay cognizant of black ice and slippery spots.  Perhaps the most interesting setup of the week will come late Wednesday and Wednesday night, as one of the many energetic disturbances riding the jet stream winds reaches the coast.  This system is likely to throw increasing clouds into Southern New England later Wednesday, and as the system ejects off the Mid-Atlantic coast it will strengthen and quickly gain moisture.  The question with this system is how far north the associated precipitation will reach Wednesday night, which will largely depend upon the track of the energetic disturbance as it moves northeast from the Mid-Atlantic.  At this point, my thoughts are that we could see a period of rain and snow in Southeast New England Wednesday night, with mostly rain on the Cape and Islands where the most precipitation will fall, and perhaps a lighter snowfall up the South Shore.  It's early in the game on this one, though, as guidance products will gain a better handle on this system as they better resolve the storm that's just moved through and is deepening over Eastern Canada, and more importantly as they gain a solid hold on the composition of the energetic disturbance driving in from the Pacific.

As that coastal creature pulls away on Thursday, another weaker energetic disturbance will be moving east across the Great Lakes, and mostly cloudy skies are likely to be the result on Thursday with perhaps a few showers of rain or snow, and perhaps a drain of cooler air very weakly moving south behind the departing coastal storm.  The active weather pattern will continue as we head toward the weekend, though the stakes will be raised a bit as a dome of high pressure dives south out of Northern Canada and into Southeastern Canada while strengthening - a sign of deeper cold building southward.  This cold will fall over New England Friday and into the weekend at the same time moisture rides northward ahead of a rather intense disturbance moving through the Central Plains.  The initial result of this disturbance in New England will probably be minor on Friday, as any collision of warm and cool air would be focused to our west, meaning clouds and perhaps some light snow late would be the most immediate effects on New England, but it does set up an interesting scenario with winter potential for the upcoming weekend, as cold air settles into New England while the steady feed of disturbances at the jet stream level continue to encourage a northward rise of warmth and moisture from both the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico.  This setup is one I'll continue to inspect in the coming days.

Merry Christmas Eve to one and all.  See you back here tomorrow.

Matt

CHRISTMAS EVE MONDAY PODCAST: GRADUAL MELTDOWN MUCH OF THIS WEEK...QUIET CHRISTMAS WEATHER REGIONWIDE

The Quick Weather Synopsis is now a Podcast!  You can either click on the audio controls above the forecast on the Quick Forecast Page, or to subscribe to the Monday-Friday podcast (updated on all days I'm working):

Easiest way is to subscribe by clicking here!

You can also use the "Subscribe to Podcast" link in the upper left corner of the main page.

The daily file you will receive is Daily_Weather_Synopsis.mp3