SNOWY START TO WINTER SETS THE STAGE FOR A FUN HOLIDAY ON NEW HAMPSHIRE'S
SLOPES & TRAILS
NORTH WOODSTOCK, NH, December 2007 - This is the
type of start to winter that New Hampshire snowsports enthusiasts dream about
all summer. The end of the 2007 calendar year has brought several significant
snowstorms to the Granite State resulting in scenery and atmosphere you expect
to see in a Norman Rockwell painting. The deep base of snow sets the stage for
what could be a legendary holiday vacation week.
The past several years
New Hampshire skiers and business have suffered through a slow start to winter.
Recent Decembers have seen ski areas struggle to open their slopes and trails.
This year ski areas are simply struggling to manage the copious snowfall.
Several Nor'easters, along with excellent snowmaking weather, have enabled
several NH ski areas to open 100% of their trails, with many more planning to be
100% open for the holiday week.
"The conditions are shaping up to be the
best we've had for the December holiday period since the winter of 2000/01. It's
a win-win scenario for our guests and area businesses and we couldn't be
happier!" stated Karl Stone, Ski NH's Marketing Director.
The news is
also excellent for lodging properties and restaurants in ski towns around NH
that have had slow starts to recent winter seasons. Bob Shaw, manager of Gordi's
Fish and Steak House in Lincoln, NH, noted, "Local NH economies thrive on the
holiday periods during the winter months, so to know the mountains have a great
product to offer visitors this holiday has spirits high."
With so many
people likely to hit the snow, special events are planned all week to keep
families entertained. These events include terrain park competitions, ski races,
fireworks displays, maple syrup sampling on snow, après ski parties, and more.
New Hampshire's ski areas also have New Year's celebrations for kids and adults
alike. New Year's celebrations are scheduled at Gunstock, Mount Sunapee, Pats
Peak, Waterville Valley, Crotched Mountain, Bretton Woods and others. For a
complete list of events, the latest on NH's snow conditions, lodging info, ski
area facts, maps and everything you need to know to plan your trip, visit
SkiNH.com.
Ski NH is the statewide association representing 38 alpine and
cross country resorts and more than 200 lodging properties in New Hampshire. For
more information on ski areas, lodging packages, lift ticket deals, and updated
winter events at Ski NH mountain resorts, call Ski NH at (800) 88-SKI-NH
(800-887-5464) or visit the Ski NH website at www.SkiNH.com. For statewide media
relations assistance, visit the New Hampshire Division of Travel and Tourism's
media room at www.visitnh.gov under Travel Industry.
« November 2007 | Main | January 2008 »
December 2007
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Friday, December 21, 2007
Thursday, December 20, 2007
SNOW BURSTS ALONG NORLUN TROUGH BRING QUICK ACCUMULATIONS...FRIDAY TO BE DECIDEDLY QUIETER
Arggg...the dreaded Norlun trough strikes again! It's been an amazing day here in the weather center. Upped the accumulations for some in Southern NH through Central and parts of Eastern Massachusetts this morning on the early 5 AM show and kept them there through the morning. Receiving lots of kudos and lots of complaints from these areas, as the banded and cellular nature of heavy snow has left some towns with significantly more than others. Of concern in the immediate term are the ongoing snow bursts in Eastern Massachusetts that are showing little sign of falling apart, and this may push some Eastern MA amounts well above forecasted amounts. Best bet is to monitor the radar links at right through the day. Farther north, we appear on track.
What's going on here is the combination of an energetic disturbance aloft with a storm that's not located hundreds of miles off the coastline. The disturbance aloft, though, is moving across Northern New York State, and forming a surface low pressure cell beneath it. Linking the offshore storm and the Upstate New York storm is a "trough," or weakness in the atmosphere that features a corridor of lower barometric pressure and converging air, favorable for cloud and precipitation production. The end result is a band of precipitation focused along this trough that can produce heavy amounts. With cold air aloft, instability is present, which is the same condition we witness in thunderstorms, and therefore allows the snow to take on a cellular structure, with very heavy snow falling under the heavier bands and cells of snow. This phenomenon is referred to as a Norlun trough, deriving it's name from a shortened version of the last names of the gentlemen who studied this phenomenon closely, and has produced "surprise" snows of over a foot to some parts of Eastern New England in the past. The most favorable spot for heavy snows today extend from the Southern/Midcoast of Maine through the New Hampshire Seacoast. In Eastern Massachusetts, blossoming bursts of snow were waning for a time, but have shown new life as the Norlun trough tries to back into Eastern Massachusetts, proving that it may have a surprise up its sleeve after all. You can continue to monitor the bursts of snow through the radar links at right as the day presses on. My best guess on general accumulations is below, but keep in mind that the nature of the "snow cells" producing higher bursts are making for locally higher amounts, and keep an eye glued to the radar in Eastern Massachusetts should these bands continue beyond the midday hour!! -Matt
Regardless, intensity will wane quickly by evening as the ocean storm continues to move eastward and the Norlun trough weakens. While skies will only begin to clear in Northern New England overnight Thursday night, a northeast wind will send cooler air sailing southward elsewhere, and that will mean moisture on most roads freezing up into widespread ice for Friday morning. In addition, the cold air streaming in on a northeast wind may produce some Friday morning ocean effect snow showers on Cape Cod and the South Shore, while the remainder of Central and Southern New England will begin Friday with plenty of clouds. The air spilling in from a building Canadian high, though, will not only be cool but also dry. This will mean an erosion of the cloud deck to allow more in the way of sunshine, though temperatures will remain chilly through the day.
By Saturday, warmer air will move northward with temperatures either side of 40 beneath sun and thickening clouds as the dome of high pressure shifts offshore, and the clockwise flow around it allows somewhat milder air to begin a trip northward, though it will be a slow and difficult trip into New England, resulting in the expected increasing cloud deck. Meanwhile, the active jet stream will favor development of a stronger storm to our west, and a strong attendant cold front. Ahead of this system, southerly winds will strengthen Saturday night, bringing milder air across New England on Sunday. As clouds thicken with increasing moisture Sunday morning, rain will move in from west to east and a period of steady rain is expected with a mild southerly wind Sunday afternoon, with raindrops the likely precipitation type all the way into Northern New England. Nonetheless, most of our snowpack can handle the hit from the snow, and for most this will not jeopardize the chance for a White Christmas nor the ski conditions for the holiday week. A brief shot of cool air is expected to follow before another moderation the middle to end of next week.
Farther down the line, a stormy pattern looks as though it may try
to return to New England starting at the end of next week - perhaps as
a warmer and somewhat wet storm - then continuing into the following
week with increasing wintry precipitation.
Matt
Matt's Technical Discussion - Updated Wednesday, December 19, 2007 at 1:55 PM
Interesting tough battle for warmer air to move north today with warm frontogenesis occurring across CT/RI/SE MA, but warm air succeeding in making it to elevated locales like ORH and RUT. As the afternoon wears on, expecting this warmth to mix down better in many spots, but keep an eye on dewpoints as a boundary will still remain.
Incoming vort max coupled with light isentropic lift/upglide means thickening clouds but as onshore llvl flow develops and moisture is added to the system, I'm expecting more pockets of precip and more convective bursts. Mild air in SE and far Srn NewEng ensures raindrops for these spots, at least for most of the night. Onshore flow puts coastal areas marginal but near shore water temps are below 40 and with lower dewpoints not expecting much warming influence N of BOS. Even so, while precip gains coverage and in bursts gains intensity Wed Ngt, not really a prolonged period of hvy precip in any one spot, except for a few overnight hours on Cape Cod where temps will be mild enuf for mostly rain tho any convective elements could cool dynamically enuf for some flakes to mix in. The result ends up being a widespread coating for lots of spots, tho higher terrain of Northern MA and colder spots farther N will pick up an inch or so and perhaps a couple of inches higher terrain of VT. Of course, the fun just begins tonight as Norlun trof sets up by early Thu AM and lasts thru the day. The guidance has had some trouble with this feature, but my forecast has been mostly unchanged since the presence of the Norlun trough emerged in the forecast, and that's for a heavy precip axis in Srn ME to the NH Seacoast. There are a few reasons I've stuck to this and want to continue sticking to it today: 1) The NMM, which went bonkers on precip in Eastern MA yesterday, has been farther south with its 500 mb low and out of step with the majority of the guidance, so while it was really cranking out substantial snow in Eastern MA, I disregarded it. It's only now starting to come around. 2) Climatologically, the Central and Southern Coast of ME through Seacoast NH is much more strongly favored, with a few Norlun events farther south, but extremely rare to see the magnitude that was being forecasted by the NMM/WRF/MM5 so far south. 3) When taking the farther north upper low track into account, the best PVA lines up for an extended period of time from the NH Seacoast through Southwest ME. So, with the GFS now on-board and the NMM coming around, axis of heaviest QPF stays right where it "should be." Next question is how far north, south, east and west to take the precip shield. That's one parameter the guidance is still out to lunch on, I believe. With improved convective parameterization, the models do a much better job of picking up on these events, but still do a relatively poor job of a) placing them, and b) determining their coverage. Notice, though, that the higher resolution NMM, WRF and MM5 have all been painting narrower and narrower stripes of precip with each run as they get a better handle on this. With the setup on Thu, I expect convective bursts of snow to extend fairly far north and northeast of the main precip axis, but drop off sharply farther south of the trof and therefore south of the low level moist inflow, and I tried to reflect that in the accums map.
Matt
AN UPDATE FROM THE MOUNT WASHINGTON VALLEY SKI RESORTS
Greetings! With nearly three feet of natural snowfall in
December, Mt. Washington Valley's ski resorts are ready for the Christmas Week
to beat all (recent) Christmas Weeks! Add to that extensive snowmaking and
grooming and you have a recipe for happy skiers and riders.
IN THIS ISSUE: Conditions / Christmas Week Events / Fast Facts / Photos
Conditions as of Dec. 19
CURRENTLY SNOWING
Attitash Mountain Resort – Base: 18-45 in. / 7-day total: 16+ in.
Bear Notch Ski Touring – Base: 15 in. (average)
Black Mountain – Base: 24-40 in.
Bretton Woods – Base: 36-48 in. / 7-day total: 18+ in.
Bretton Woods Nordic Center – Base: 5-10 in. / 7-day total: 18+ in.
Cranmore Mountain Resort – Base: 18-30 in.
Great Glen Trails – Base: 11 in. (average)
Jackson XC – Base: 24 in. (average)
King Pine – Base: 18-36 in.
King Pine Nordic Center – Opening date TBA
Mt. Washington Valley Ski Touring – Base: 12+ in.
Shawnee Peak – Base: 22-36
Wildcat – Base: 12-28 in. / 7-day total: 16+in.
CHRISTMAS WEEK EVENT HIGHLIGHTS
Fri., Dec. 21
Cranmore: Platinum Anniversary Rollback - Ski Dec. 21 for the price of a lift ticket in 1930: just $3.30! www.cranmore.com
King Pine: Last day of this week's 2-for-1 lift ticket offer. www.kingpine.com
Wed., Dec. 26
Cranmore: Cranapalooza - Enjoy night skiing on 11 trails during this Winter Carnival-themed event. Fireworks, children's entertainment, and live music are highlights. www.cranmore.com
Thurs., Dec. 27
Shawnee Peak: Ullr Fest '07 - An evening event welcoming winter complete with "The Beating of the Drums," fireworks and a torchlight parade (starts at 7 p.m.). www.shawneepeak.com
FAST FACTS
Outside magazine calls North Conway one of the nations top "Outdoor Meccas." (2006)
National Geographic Adventure ranks North Conway among the nation's "Top 31 Adventure Towns" (2006).
Men's Journal ranks North Conway one of the nation's "Top 10 Coolest Mountain Towns." (2005)
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
NORLUN TROUGH TO DELIVER BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TO SOME NEW ENGLAND COMMUNITIES
Though it only happens a few times each winter, the Norlun Trough will be up to its old tricks in parts of New England Wednesday night and Thursday and the result will be significant snow for some of us. Though a cold shot of air settles in for Friday, warmth battles back this weekend in time for our next storm to drop primarily rain across New England.
An energetic disturbance caught in the jet stream winds aloft will continue to push east out of the Great Lakes and will move over New England on Thursday. Though the system has plenty of energy aloft that has aided in cloud production, making the disturbance easily traceable on satellite imagery, until today it was virtually invisible on radar returns, which of course scan the sky in search of water droplets and ice crystals. The reason for this is rather simple - the system was starved of moisture. As it's moved east, however, a bit more moisture in the atmosphere has resulted in blossoming patches of rain and snow, looking worse on radar than what's actually been reaching the ground, largely because of the dry air in the lower few thousand feet of the sky that's been evaporating what raindrops and snowflakes have been falling. Nonetheless, bursts of moderate snow have been reported across New York and Pennsylvania, and as a southerly flow of wind increases the amount of moisture in the air across New England, snow and rain showers will develop Wednesday late afternoon and evening. At the same time, the steady south wind has help to gradually force temperatures above freezing for many Central and Southern New England communities, with temperatures climbing well into the 40s from the South Coast to the Cape and Islands.
The incoming energetic disturbance will split in two pieces Wednesday night, with one chunk racing just barely south of New England and another strengthening a bit as it moves overhead. The result will be one weakening storm center coming out of the Great Lakes, and another strengthening storm center east of Cape Cod. Though both of these systems will begin rather weak at first, an elongated counter-clockwise flow around both storm centers will keep an easterly wind off the water into New England, adding moisture to the atmosphere and allowing scattered snow and rain showers to increase in coverage and intensity Wednesday night. Though many spots will be cold enough for snow showers, spots from the Boston area southward through the South Shore and to Cape Cod and the South Coast of Connecticut will find temperatures warm enough for mostly raindrops to fall. With a rather slow moving and consistent flow of air around these two low pressure systems Wednesday night, expect little change in temperature, meaning raindrops may continue to fall in Southeastern New England most of the night with a burst of heavier rain possible on Cape Wednesday overnight, with snowflakes farther away from the coastline, in weaker onshore flow of air. By Thursday morning, a fresh and solid coating of snow will probably have fallen in many areas that see cold enough air for snowflakes, but the weather scenario will be turning far more complicated into Thursday for some of us.
Though it's not all that common, occasionally a weather setup with
one low pressure center offshore and another inland can allow for a
weakness in the barometric pressure field between them to develop. If
that sounds confusing, remember that lower pressure usually means a
storm, so a corridor of lower pressure connecting two storm centers
could serve as a pathway for narrow stormy weather. The same concept
will be at work Wednesday night through Thursday, with a narrow band of
precipitation likely to establish where the southerly flow from the
western storm center meets the northerly flow from the eastern one,
beneath the energetic jet stream disturbance aloft and feeding off
ocean moisture. This phenomenon is referred to as a Norlun Trough - a
disturbance that has a history of producing "surprise" significant
snowfall. Historically, such Norlun troughs usually establish
somewhere between the Central coast of Maine and the Seacoast of New
Hampshire, though have occurred as far south as Cape Cod before. There is still uncertainty on where this band of snow will orient itself on Thursday, though I continue to favor the historically
favored location of the Maine and New Hampshire Seacoast, from either side of Casco Bay southward to Seabrook, with perhaps fringe effects to the far North Shore and perhaps Cape Ann,
Massachusetts. In the accumulation map below, you'll see how quickly I've dropped off accumulations south of Seabrook and Salisbury, largely because these Norlun troughs have a history of not dropping much appreciable precipitation on their south side, though on the north and northeast sides we can see a more gradual decrease in snowfall amounts, largely because of the instability that exists and favors more widespread bursts of snow, which is what I expect to see from East-Central and Southeast New Hampshire all the way through the Mid-Coast of Maine and as far north as Fryeburg on Thursday. Beneath the center of the locally heavy snow band of the Norlun Trough, as much as a foot of snow is certainly possible, and this seems most likely to line up very near to the New Hampshire/Maine border, but the truth is that this will be a "nowcasting" event, meaning placement of the exact axis of heavy snow is nearly impossible in advance, and I'll be watching the very same radar links you will on Thursday, located on the right side of this New England Weather Analysis Page. Of course, one question in the scenario I've described here is why does the National Weather Service have a winter storm watch up for interior Northeast Massachusetts if the heaviest will be focused in Maine and New Hampshire? Keep in mind that this band of snow is very difficult to locate, meaning not only will you find differences in the forecast for it, but more importantly, a government agency like the National Weather Service has set protocol for watches and warnings. A watch simply means that a winter storm COULD develop...the warning is the more imminent alarm sounding. So, given the uncertainty of exact placement of the snow band, hoisting the watch isn't a bad idea, even though I seriously doubt we'll find that much snow in the area covered, as it hangs farther to the north. 
By Friday, high pressure will also build south out of Quebec and toward New England. This dome of cold Canadian air will push temperatures into the single digits north and teens south early Friday, with the surge of cold air producing ocean effect clouds and snow showers in Southeastern Massachusetts Friday morning, then the dry air overwhelming the weather scenario and clearing the skies from northeast to southwest, leaving increasing chilly sunshine Friday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a stronger Pacific disturbance caught in the fast west to east flow that moved ashore in Northern California on Tuesday will be marching across the nation, ready to eject off the Eastern Seaboard at the Mid-Atlantic coast later on Friday. This system will stay south of New England, allowing only increasing clouds later Friday for some of Southern New England, but by Saturday, warmer air will move northward with temperatures either side of 40 beneath sun and thickening clouds. The active jet stream will favor development of a stronger storm later in the weekend, sweeping from the nation's midsection to Southeast Canada, and pulling a cold front east with it. Along this front, a new wave of low pressure is likely to develop and will take advantage of a tap to tropical moisture to strengthen and crank out both gusty wind and heavy rain on Sunday, but those winds will be pointed from the south and that means a mild day for many and the likelihood that the storm would fall largely as rain Sunday. A brief shot of cool air is expected to follow before another moderation the middle to end of next week.
Farther down the line, a stormy pattern looks as though it may try to return to New England starting at the end of next week - perhaps as a warmer and somewhat wet storm - then continuing into the following week with increasing wintry precipitation.
Technical Discussion: Out soon.
Matt
Matt's Technical Discussion - Updated Wednesday, December 19, 2007 at 1:55 PM
Interesting tough battle for warmer air to move north today with warm frontogenesis occurring across CT/RI/SE MA, but warm air succeeding in making it to elevated locales like ORH and RUT. As the afternoon wears on, expecting this warmth to mix down better in many spots, but keep an eye on dewpoints as a boundary will still remain.
Incoming vort max coupled with light isentropic lift/upglide means thickening clouds but as onshore llvl flow develops and moisture is added to the system, I'm expecting more pockets of precip and more convective bursts. Mild air in SE and far Srn NewEng ensures raindrops for these spots, at least for most of the night. Onshore flow puts coastal areas marginal but near shore water temps are below 40 and with lower dewpoints not expecting much warming influence N of BOS. Even so, while precip gains coverage and in bursts gains intensity Wed Ngt, not really a prolonged period of hvy precip in any one spot, except for a few overnight hours on Cape Cod where temps will be mild enuf for mostly rain tho any convective elements could cool dynamically enuf for some flakes to mix in. The result ends up being a widespread coating for lots of spots, tho higher terrain of Northern MA and colder spots farther N will pick up an inch or so and perhaps a couple of inches higher terrain of VT. Of course, the fun just begins tonight as Norlun trof sets up by early Thu AM and lasts thru the day. The guidance has had some trouble with this feature, but my forecast has been mostly unchanged since the presence of the Norlun trough emerged in the forecast, and that's for a heavy precip axis in Srn ME to the NH Seacoast. There are a few reasons I've stuck to this and want to continue sticking to it today: 1) The NMM, which went bonkers on precip in Eastern MA yesterday, has been farther south with its 500 mb low and out of step with the majority of the guidance, so while it was really cranking out substantial snow in Eastern MA, I disregarded it. It's only now starting to come around. 2) Climatologically, the Central and Southern Coast of ME through Seacoast NH is much more strongly favored, with a few Norlun events farther south, but extremely rare to see the magnitude that was being forecasted by the NMM/WRF/MM5 so far south. 3) When taking the farther north upper low track into account, the best PVA lines up for an extended period of time from the NH Seacoast through Southwest ME. So, with the GFS now on-board and the NMM coming around, axis of heaviest QPF stays right where it "should be." Next question is how far north, south, east and west to take the precip shield. That's one parameter the guidance is still out to lunch on, I believe. With improved convective parameterization, the models do a much better job of picking up on these events, but still do a relatively poor job of a) placing them, and b) determining their coverage. Notice, though, that the higher resolution NMM, WRF and MM5 have all been painting narrower and narrower stripes of precip with each run as they get a better handle on this. With the setup on Thu, I expect convective bursts of snow to extend fairly far north and northeast of the main precip axis, but drop off sharply farther south of the trof and therefore south of the low level moist inflow, and I tried to reflect that in the accums map.
Matt
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
MARS TO BE ESPECIALLY BRIGHT TONIGHT...AND FOR A FEW WEEKS TO COME!
The planet Mars has been putting on quite a show in the eastern sky lately, and it reaches peak intensity Tuesday night. A mere 55 million miles from Earth, Mars makes its closest pass until the year 2016 tonight, so head outside after sundown, gaze east, and feast your eyes upon the Red Planet, shining in all its glory, slightly brighter than Sirius and outshining every star in your December night sky! The picture here was taken by Sean Walker in Chester, NH, and featured on spaceweather.com.
Am I Streaming Live?
Mouse over video to turn sound/video on/off.
Fun & Favorite Moments
- An interview with the Farmer's Almanac for 2009
- Celebrate the Gift of Life - 2009 Blood Drive, NECN & American Red Cross
- Cover Story: The FAA and Its Forecast for Flight
- Dancing at the weather wall with Elmo and Cookie Monster from Sesame Street Live
- Flying with the Blue Angels
- Matt and Arthur in the traffic center battle in a Friday Dance Off
- Matt and fiance Jessica take a dance lesson to prepare for their wedding
- Wedding Pictures from Matt's Big Day
