Quick Note: An exciting day tomorrow for NECN and the American Red Cross as we embark upon our fourth annual Celebrate the Gift of Life Blood Drive. Please see my homepage for more information on the drive, and I hope you'll be able to make it out to one of our locations.
Weatherwise, a wedge of high pressure is sandwiched over New England Tuesday morning and is holding cool air across the region. Near the Great Lakes, however, an area of strengthening low pressure has pulled north of Lake Superior into Ontario and is headed for Hudson Bay. A cold front trails south of this storm center, and represents a remarkable contrast in temperature between highs rebounding into the 50s across the Ohio Valley, and holding in the single digits and teens through the Upper Midwest. The passage of this cold front will bring dropping temperatures and drying conditions during the day on Wednesday, though another storm comes back into the picture by week's end.
In the meantime, warmth and moisture have both been streaming northward ahead of the cold front and an attendant secondary wave of low pressure ramping up over Missouri. Thunderstorms have been focused near the front and represent a feed of moisture that began out of the Tropical Pacific, and has since been enhanced by a deep flow of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall will continue to blossom in advance of the cold front, and the initial band of precipitation has been moving east across New York State Tuesday morning. Though the air in place over New England is dry, and will cause the showers of freezing rain and rain to weaken as they cross the Hudson Valley, at least some scattered rain showers will move into Western New England Tuesday afternoon and can be followed via the radar links on the right of this page, and through surface observations linked on the left of this discussion. Farther east, clouds will continue to increase and thicken after morning sunshine, with a surface wind that gradually shifts to blow from the southwest - boosting temperatures to either side of 40 degrees Tuesday afternoon for most spots, with warmest temperatures in the lower to middle 40s over Southern New England. There will, however, be some spots in Central and Western Vermont and Western Massachusetts, that will have a tougher time warming with the increasing clouds, and some valleys may see light freezing rain showers with any renegade showers that cross state lines out of New York early enough in the afternoon.
Otherwise, though, the warming atmosphere will favor plain raindrops for all locations as the clouds lower enough for scattered showers to increase in coverage a bit later Tuesday afternoon and evening. Though showers will continue from time to time in this initial push of warmer and more moist air, it truly will take until after midnight before showers transition to a swath of rain, and in many eastern areas it may take until predawn for steadier rain to begin falling as temperatures hold in the 30s for many central and northern locales, and closer to 40 farther south. It's possible that the valleys of Northwestern Maine and far Northern New Hampshire will find a glaze for the first few hours of precipitation leading into early Wednesday morning, and caution will need to be exercised in these locales. Steady rain is expected to continue for many areas early Wednesday morning in advance of the strong cold front associated with the Great Lakes low pressure center, tapping the Gulf of Mexico for moisture and enhancing rainfall amounts in the Northeast, but remaining progressive enough to limit precipitation amounts to either side of half an inch of rain in many areas. Also ahead of the front, winds will continue to strengthen from the southwest in Southern New England and the southeast in Northern New England (especially Maine), carrying a shot of mild air into New England Wednesday morning, with Wednesday's highs in the 40s reached early in the day and winds gusting to 45 mph, especially at coastlines. When the cold front passes late Wednesday morning, expect a final round of downpours - maybe even a rumble of thunder in a few spots before ending as flurries - then a rapid wind shift with westerly winds taking over, but still gusting to 45 and 50 mph as temperatures fall from the 40s, through the 30s, and into the 20s in many areas by late afternoon. In fact, by evening, many spots may fall into the teens! One concern would be a freeze of standing water, but dry air comes in as the air turns colder, meaning evaporation should prohibit too much standing water from remaining when temperatures fall below freezing.
Dry air follows the front, and though a shot of deep Canadian cold is available, it will mostly sail north of New England on Thursday, riding under the belly of the large storm wrapping up into Eastern Canada on a westerly and southwesterly wind, meaning sunshine will help to boost temperatures into the 30s for almost all areas. At the same time, a longwave weather pattern will persist with a broad trough, or dip, in the jet stream over the Rockies, favoring storm development in the Plains States. This will mean yet another strengthening storm wrapping from the Plains to the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday, carrying increasing clouds into New England. The difference this time will be a bit more in the way of cold air ahead of the storm, meaning that when precipitation develops from south to north on Friday, rain is the most likely precipitation type in most of Southern New England and near the coastlines of Southern New England, but snow may fall for a time with at least a few inches of accumulation for some of Central New England, and the North Country is likely to see mostly snow on Friday, dropping up to half a foot of snow in some Northern New England communities.
Friday night may bring lingering clouds before a drying wind takes hold on Saturday, absent of any deep cold air and resulting in significantly increasing sunshine and temperatures either side of 40 as a regionwide average. A fast-moving upper level disturbance may bring some snow showers to Northern New England on Sunday, though most of us will see another dry day with temperatures still running above normal.
Looking father down the road, a warmer than normal pattern is expected to persist for most of the first half of February, as a Western U.S. trough continues to favor cool air spilling into the Western parts of our nation, with deep cold welling in Western Canada and significant and perhaps record warmth peaking over the Northeast on February 5, ahead of a cold front that will swing through with rain - perhaps thunder - and usher in cooler air for a time, though warmth should continue to rebound through the first half of the month. There are signs the Western U.S. trough will shift east in time for the second half of February, opening the door for significantly colder than normal conditions later in the month.
Make it a great Tuesday, and please remember the blood drive tomorrow!
Matt
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