Remarkably mild temperatures have been carried northward into New England on a remarkably strong wind - gusting at times to over 50 mph and resulting in damage for many communities around Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts. Winds will shift Monday evening, marking the leading edge to cooler air that will bring slowly falling temperatures Monday night, then colder air as we slide into the midweek. With a few strong energetic disturbances expected to swing across New England for the middle and end of the week, there are a couple of chances of snow, though that will be largely dependent upon available moisture.
For the time-being, plenty of moisture has been available with a strong tap out of the Gulf of Mexico cranking out significant rainfall for many areas Sunday night and Monday. Though that moisture tap is shifting east, evident on satellite and radar imagery Monday afternoon, there's still been enough remaining moisture to crank out scattered showers for many New England communities. Nonetheless, the drier trend has been most evident and especially welcomed in far Northern and Western New England, where families are undoubtedly packed into hotel rooms or getting creative with other activities, waiting eagerly to get out on the ski slopes and watching so much of the precious snow melt away. Nonetheless, there's been a tremendous base built up across Northern New England, and though it's taking a hit with the rain, there'll be plenty of snow left to go around for everyone. Farther south, warm air has muscled in on a southerly wind that's gusted over 50 mph, downing trees and power lines in Southeastern New England communities. The wind has failed to penetrate farther north than parts of Central New England, with the exceptions of the Champlain Valley and Maine coastal plain, largely because of the shallow dome of lingering cool air unwilling to allow the wind to mix all the way down to the ground, and while the warmth is impressive, it's not quite record warmth - records stand from 1981 in the middle and upper 60s south, and near 60 north. Once the wind shifts Monday evening with the passage of a cold front, the speed will decrease in Southern New England and perhaps increase a bit in the quieter North Country, with a round of rain changing to snow showers expected in the North, with a fresh coating of snow. Travelers should be cognizant of black ice that may develop on Northern, Central and Western roads and highways overnight Monday night.
Gradually clearing skies Monday night will leave a decent start Tuesday, though cooler air spilling over New England with lingering moisture in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere will mean a number of blossoming clouds on Tuesday, leaving more clouds than sun for many with the chance of scattered snow showers in Northern and Western New England, and a few sprinkles farther south. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than Monday, owing to the passage of the weak cool front Monday evening, but will not represent any east or southward surge of the deeper cold across the Upper Great Lakes and Northern Plains, largely because the jet stream will fail to drop sufficiently south of New England to allow deep cold air to spill south.
Of course, the inability for the jet stream to drop much farther south is an important factor, as it means those storm steering winds aloft will continue to flow close to New England - especially Southern New England. To our west, emerging from the dome of more significant cold air, will be a strong upper level energetic disturbance that will eject east in the fast jet stream winds aloft, delivering a shot of rising air with it's passage late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Of course, remember that rising air is what's needed for cloud and precipitation production - just like seeing a steam cloud form as warm and moist air rises out of a pot of boiling water - and this will mean the atmospheric conditions will become more conducive for precipitation late Wednesday. Given the amount of cold air in place at the surface and aloft by that point, precipitation would fall in the form of snow, and the passage of the disturbance over or just south of Southern New England would mean the best chance for accumulating snow will be in the Southern half of the six-state region.
Behind Wednesday's disturbance, a break in the action is expected Thursday with colder and drier air settling south into New England, but we'll watch yet again for an upper level disturbance to move nearby on Friday. This time, the Gulf of Mexico may have a stronger contribution, which means the questions for later Friday hinge upon the exact direction of the jet stream winds aloft, which will steer that moisture feed and determine whether it runs the coastline Friday night, or sails out south of us, dropping rain and snow on the fish south of New England. This is one that will continue to be watched carefully.
With the large scale weather pattern continuing to favor a broad southern stream ridge over the Western United States, and a northern stream trough over the Central U.S., the threat for storms will continue for the next couple of weeks!
That's all for our Monday.
Matt
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