Very crunched for time today so will be concise.
High pressure remains in charge and after Clayton Lake, Maine, took the prize of coldest temperature with -34 F this morning, should be some 10 to 20 below zero readings tonight but cloud debris will keep average North Country temps from being quite as cold as night past. This cloud debris blowing off Lake Ontario has brought flurries as far east as Northern VT but now some high clouds will start streaming into tonight, as well. Nonetheless, mostly dry air means mostly clear sky for New England with a light and variable wind having a northwest tendency early and southerly tendency late
Tuesday starts with lots of sun that fades late as warm and moist advection commences ahead of shortwave trough that will mostly run thru Ontario and Quebec, dragging occlusion and associated warm/cold front thru New England Tuesday night with scattered showers. Temps should be warm enough in the boundary layer for mostly raindrops in CT/RI/SE MA, a mix most of MA and Srn NH/VT and mostly snowflakes farther north but the combination of weak dynamic lift this far south of the shortwave and limited surface convergence, as well. Farther north, at least a coating of snow for most areas but orographically favored areas will pick up 1"-3" Tuesday night into Wed AM.
I like the idea of being stubborn with breaking the clouds on Wednesday with what will be quick warm and then cool advection, but a downsloping southwest wind in Southern New England will favor some breaks and with mild boundary layer air in place, 50+ seems reasonable in Southern areas. The cool front settles south late Wednesday into Thursday and sets up a Thursday night through Saturday pattern with tons of potential. With a front laid across New England and trailing back west to the Central Plains where it meets a low pressure center that will get the low level jet cranking out of the Gulf and provide a moisture feed to the front. This begins the process by which ripples of low pressure will continue to move along the front at the same time an anticyclone strengthens over South Central Canada and muscles southeast. This is a situation that needs to be monitored for substantial rain and snow from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley to the Northeast with accumulating possible from Chicago to Boston. Of course, the end result depends upon the interaction of the cold and moisture and just how far south the cold can muscle, but with the Canadian high at 1028 mb on Friday and 1032 on Saturday, it's strengthening which means the push of cold is strengthening, raising the stakes for accumulating snow in much of New England especially Friday and Saturday. Definitely a watcher.
Matt
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