MATTNOYES.NET - Weather Website & Blog

SLOW ADVANCE OF RAIN, QUICK DEPARTURE SATURDAY...WILL SCATTERED WEEKEND THUNDER PRODUCE ANY DAMAGE? IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE...

A really quick update today, because I think the discussions this week and especially from yesterday have a fairly good handle on the situation.

Bottom line here is that the weakening anticylcone over Northern Maine is keeping just enough dry air in play to erode the northern edge of the rain, but it will advance as the mid-level warm and moist advection described yesterday looks to be verifying, and has actually been producing some really impressive cold cloud tops evident on IR imagery, even if the rain hasn't been penetrating the dry 10-15000 feet of atmosphere we have near the ground.  You can track the rain through the radar links at right, but remember that some of it is virga - evaporating before hitting the ground - so check out the surface observations, too - I like the "Java" map that is located in the pull down menu of Current Conditions to the right of this discussion.  Of course, that column will moisten, but it's interesting to see the guidance in great agreement on very low QPF in Eastern and especially Northeastern MA through about 10 PM or so, and we've certainly seen this happen in similar circumstances before, where the easterly wind can actually hold the surface dry air in place even though it has to bleed across the ocean first.  I don't think it can successfully stop the rain from advancing, but I do think it may keep the intensity light from Boston to Portsmouth and inside the north end of route 495.  Heaviest burst of rain comes tonight as the storm strengthens.  .50" to .75" looks good for Southern and Eastern New England, with some local variation.

I'll just outline any changes or addition of detail for the rest of the forecast....

The one feature that should stand out about Saturday's forecast in addition to the upper low and cold pool and the myriad of surface troughs and a cold front racing east across NY State is the overall speed of the flow.  As the storm - surface and aloft - cranks over Eastern Canada, the wind flow becomes quite fast from west to east through most of the atmosphere.  This propels a surface trough/cold front quickly east, and with surface cold advection slow under the belly of the storm, low level and mid level lapse rates should really be steepening.  This allows for the expected convection to develop after sunshine boosts temps to either side of 70, but the convection (thunderstorms) could be somewhat nasty in a few spots, especially Western New England.  Given the unidirectional, fast flow, severe wind gusts (excess of 58 mph) are possible in the healthier storms, and the situation actually is marginally favorable for a squall line to develop.  Given the rapidly cooling air aloft, hail is another possibility.  As mentioned yesterday, convection may last longer than normal after sunset.

Sunday's convection still comes with cold air just off the ground, so I still like the idea of hail, graupel and high terrain snowflakes.  Additional trough on Monday means keep the chance of scattered, mostly diurnally fueled showers, especially in Northern New England, and though shortwave ridging comes in Tuesday, we're ahead of the next system over the Ohio Valley, so clouds increase late with a chance of rain by evening and night.

Enjoy your weekend!
Matt

AS COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, AIRMASS BOUNDARY LAYS PATHWAY FOR NEXT STORM

Warm advection is squeezing in on the strengthening southwest surface wind flow ahead of the approaching cold front - cutting through Northern and Western New England as of this writing.  Though clouds have limited the amount of warming, breaks of sunshine have been allowing temperature rebounds in especially southern New England.  Instability will be quite limited owing to the limited insolation, but enough will exist for a new round of convective showers along the surface convergence zone associated with the cold front, at least until diurnal heating wanes around sundown.

The cold front will settle south of New England tonight and is still expected to play an important role in steering the next storm center, which is quite impressive on satellite and radar imagery today.  A remarkable 10" of rain fell from late Tuesday to pre-dawn Thursday in Shreveport, Louisiana (5" in about one hour!), and another round of heavy rain moved through today.  Now this southern stream energy is moving northeast and is our next focus.  Before it arrives, though, skies will clear Thursday night as the dry and cool air associated with a weakening anticyclone over the Great Lakes builds into New England behind the cold front.  This should result in a cool night as winds die off, with northern valleys in the 30s.  Friday begins with dry conditions and probably some sunshine thanks to this dry air, but cirrus clouds will overspread the region quickly.  These clouds will lower quickly, too, with overcast altostratus into Central New England by 18Z (2 PM) as mid-level warm advection hastens dramatically.

The toughest call for this storm is the onset of precipitation.  Looking at the mid-level charts, precip should begin by midday most of the Southern half of New England.  From 850 mb and below, however, the profile is quite dry, and this is why the guidance is holding precip back for several hours until the end of the day and evening.  Though the air coming in is dry - to the tune of dewpoints in the 30s - it's not bone dry, and the wind turns to blow out of the east...off the ocean...during the day.  Of course, with a dry start and morning temps generally in the 40s, we should be able to reach the lower 60s in many areas, and that will increase the dewpoint depression (spread between temperature and dewpoint), making virga more likely and rain less likely.  Still, given the warm advection and moist advection in the mid-levels, and the rebound of surface dewpoints during the afternoon, it makes sense to commence rain in Southern New England Friday afternoon, and then spread it north Friday evening and night.  I like the GFS solution from 12Z - a compromise between earlier strong and wet solutions from yesterday and the trend to a drier and more progressive solution that emerged as of this writing yesterday.  This also puts a period of heavy rain over Southern new England overnight Friday night that may rotate up the eastern coastal plain of New England Saturday AM before the low departs to the east, and carries at least some steady rain into Central and even parts of Northern New England.

The idea mentioned here yesterday of some improvement Saturday still holds - and it does, indeed, appear as though Northern new England should get in on that, too...with Southern New England temps possibly shooting into the 70s with the combination of sun, a fast downslope flow, and relatively mild, occluded air behind the storm.  Whether this is an actual occlusion is up for debate - more like an inverted trough - but you'll remember from the beginning of the week that this looked like a triple point low on the big picture, and still resembles one to some extent.  Cold advection in the mid levels, tho, is underway Saturday and I like the idea of instability touching off convection (showers and thunderstorms) in Upstate NY and carrying it into Western and perhaps Central New England by the end of the day.  Though normally this action would die at sundown, the upper level low is strong, its cold pool is well-pronounced and the instability owing to lingering low level warmth will be significant.  These steep lapse rates will keep convective processes going longer than normal, so some showers or even a few relatively low topped thunderstorms may continue into Saturday night, and continue blossoming east before diminishing.  A strong downsloping and this time cold advecting wind will blow across New England on Sunday, but the strongest cold advection is near the Canadian border, and moreover is found aloft, with what my colleague refers to as "low barometer cold."  This means it's a deep low bringing the cold in, with little if anything in the way of high pressure to provide subsidence to lock the cold at the surface, and the result should be a rebound back into the 60s for many areas on Sunday, though the wind will make a brisk feel and the higher terrain will be much cooler owing to the steep lapse rate.  That same lapse rate will be the reason convective showers and low topped thunder begins again with diurnal heating by Sunday afternoon.  In the hilly terrain, small hail is possible, with graupel (soft snow pellets) or snow in the northern valleys and mountains, respectively.  Along the downsloped coastal plain, action may end up being limited to just showers thanks to the enhanced sinking air down the hills.

That's all for today - don't forget you can track today's showers and this weekend's action with the radar links on the right side of this page...

Matt

AMAZING VIDEO OF CHINESE EARTHQUAKE TAKEN NEAR THE EPICENTER

Have you ever wondered what it's like to live through a magnitude 7.8 earthquake?  This video is remarkable - amateur video shot by a man on a motorcycle who was near the epicenter of the massive quake when it struck.  What I found the most amazing was the duration of the temblor, though after the shaking stops, the videographer surveys the damage.

Meanwhile, Chinese troops scrambled to plug dangerous cracks in a dam near the epicenter of the quake.  Click here to read the article from Sky News in Britain.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY, STRENGTHENING STORM TO DELIVER RAIN AND WIND BY LATE FRIDAY

The short term is fairly straight-forward with dry air throughout the atmospheric column producing lots of sun, and winds light beneath surface ridge axis.  As the ridge has started to nudge east of New England, winds have slowly come to blow out of the south, but ocean-land interaction has a well-defined sea breeze circulation underway.  The key to coastal temps was nailing the pinnacle of morning rise before the sea breeze would kick in, because the water/air combination are cool enough to keep sea breezed locations in the 50s thru the afternoon once the cycle sets up, and this cycle may get strong enough to drive cool air through about 20 miles of the coast!  Elsewhere, the temperature rise has been unusually slow, but that hasn't been surprising given the limited vertical mixing of the boundary layer owing to a subsidence inversion beneath the ridge axis.

This evening should be fantastic through the interior as a light south wind eventually teams up with late evening cirrus blanket moving east out of NY State to keep temps up, while coastal locales through most of ME will find the coolest temperatures thanks to longest lasting mostly clear skies (especially in ME) and more importantly the cool, marine air near the coasts.  Of course, the clouds coming in are in advance of the cold front marching across the Great Lakes that will be pressing through New England on Thursday.  This front has been active diurnally, with convection evident along the boundary again today, though the larger band of convective and stratiform processes ahead of the front are coming with the combination of a moist theta-e tongue in the lower levels, and height falls with vorticity maximums riding in the west-southwest flow in the mid-levels.  This band of showers will lose some intensity Thursday night over New York State as the theta-e tongue is muted by its encounter with the dry and cool air in place over the Northeast.  Still, a few scattered and light showers should survive the trip into VT and Western MA early to mid morning Thursday.  As has been mentioned here the past few days, I think the amount of altocumulus/altostratus will be rather significant, and this should limit diurnal temperature rise.  NMM surface temperature forecast is warmer than today in Eastern New England, which makes sense for the coastal locales given absence of sea breeze (except coastal Maine and south facing coasts), but I think the implication of 70s for all of Eastern 2/3 of MA is overdone.  I have to say, though, that it's with only low to moderate confidence that I make that statement, because the other thing I've been pointing out in these discussions for Thursday is that, technically, the warmest airmass *is* in place ahead of the front with the strengthening southerly wind...I just think the presence of clouds through most of the column in most of New England means we can make 60s widespread...but 70s should be more localized to places where breaks of dim sun are seen the most.

The surface cold front will be an important feature in the forecast for Friday, as the front will continue slowing on its progression through New England, reaching the waters south of New England Thursday night where it will stall in response both to rising heights in the mid-levels (shortwave ridging) in advance of a stronger shortwave digging from the Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coastlines on Friday.  This shortwave ridging not only stalls the cold front, but also means Friday should start dry in New England, ahead of the surface reflection of the aforementioned upper level disturbance.  That surface reflection will be a steadily strengthening low pressure center ejecting from the Tennessee River Valley and moving northeast off the NJ coast and south of New England Friday through Friday night.

The details of this event are still up for grabs, as we do have some similarities to this past Friday evening/night event...billed to be a heavy rain maker but in reality taking most of the rain south of New England as a flat wave.  While this Friday's event has similarities of being a flat and rather progressive surface wave resulting from what is perhaps the most important similarity - channeled vorticity - there are differences in the evolution of the upper level pattern over the weekend.  Let's start with the channeled vorticity thought - Dave Eichorn, the Chief Meteorologist at WSYR in Syracuse, used to share with me when I worked there that some of the biggest blown forecasts he'd experienced and seen came from giving too much credit to channeled vorticity, or a vorticity maximum that has a relatively small area of cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of it.  Putting this in simpler terms, what he was saying is that it doesn't always matter that an energetic disturbance is strong, or elongated, or impressive to look at.  What matters is the angle at which that energy is coming in.  It's a basic concept that any meteorologist learns - the strongest lifted air favoring clouds and precipitation comes from a perpendicular face of vorticity to the mean wind flow - but can easily be forgotten in the heat of battle.  This was a big part of last Friday's failed rain forecast, and I see a similar potential evolution this time around.  The difference with this Friday night's event is that the stakes are higher because the surface baroclinicity (temperature difference along the front) is stronger and closer to New England, so the storm will strengthen quicker in the game, even though the end product isn't as impressive as last week's stacked low in extreme Eastern Canada.

Of course, the longwave pattern is important here, too, and remember the thinking from early this week that the wavelengths in North America aren't matching up, and this storm is really going to deepen and probably persist as it's forming in a necessary effort to bring atmospheric equilibrium (if I just lost you, read the discussion from Monday).  This means the upper low will eventually end up stalled over Southeast Canada and New England, posing different challenges later this weekend than what we saw a week ago.

So, the bottom line here is that I'm banking on a shot of rain and wind for Southern New England later Friday after a dry and perhaps partly sunny start, with the heaviest precipitation coming through Friday night ahead of the surface reflection of low pressure.  I'm indicating the heaviest rain should shift to Northern New England on Saturday in my on-air forecasts, but review of the latest data shows the upper low may actually expand east too fast to allow good warm air advection into Northern New England on Saturday, meaning the heaviest rain may fall over the Gulf of ME and Nova Scotia but this will have to be re-examined...is my gut on this for now though.

Convective potential Saturday in Western New England beneath the cool pool, then for all of New England on Sunday, but downsloping flow and occluded mild air in at least southern new england on Saturday should allow mild and windy conditions before cold air moves in Sunday with possible flakes in the mountaintops or at least graupel beneath convective bursts!

Matt

WONDERFUL WEDNESDAY...WEEKEND SCENARIO GAINS SOME CLARITY AS THE GATEWAY TO COOL REGIME

In the short term, winds diminish as surface ridge axis moves over NY State tonight, keeping a light northerly wind for most of New England, but only at a few miles per hour and calm in sheltered valleys.  The result will be widespread lows in the 30s and 40s with 30s in most of the protected valleys, though frost is unlikely given the lack of moisture in the boundary layer with dewpoints in the 20s, though deeper valleys of Northern New England are likely to find saturation as some of the hollows will drop into the upper 20s.

Strong sun angle will provide a quick temperature rebound Wednesday morning, though we'll be challenged to equal max temps in extreme Eastern/coastal New England, believe it or not, owing to the combination of the surface ridge axis moving through with subsidence limiting amount of mixing a bit, and with southeast component to the surface wind providing a bleed of air off the Atlantic.  Most of interior New England, though, should find a light southerly flow providing for enough mixing and low level warm advection to outdo Tuesday's max temps by about 4 or 5 degrees.

Thursday's frontal passage still brings maximized warming in the boundary layer ahead of the front, but I'm still thinking that plenty of cloud debris ahead of the front will weaken solar input to hold down max temps for many areas prior to the front, then showers should be rather scattered in nature owing to very weak vorticity lobe that really swings thru around 18Z, then another that is quite weak that comes through around 06Z.  As for Friday, isn't it interesting that in yesterday's discussion, together we looked at how much agreement there was on keeping QPF south, but we trusted the vorticity prog, and now the surface forecast is coming into line?!  Yet again, the guidance actually performed decently well, but did so aloft, and that was an important characteristic to the forecast.  With the strongest warm advection to move through Friday night into Saturday morning, this very well should be the heaviest precipitation swath, but convective precipitation will linger throughout the weekend - even as downsloping westerly winds take over on Sunday.

As described yesterday (see below) this sets up a longwave Eastern US trough, and the result should be for cooler than normal temperatures throughout next week.

Matt

ONE STORM MISSES SOUTH...QUIET AND PLEASANT MIDWEEK...WEEKEND CHANGES AHEAD

The storm that initially looked as though it would slow, delivering rain to New England, has developed too far south to bring any precipitation to the region.  The clouds, on the other hand, made steady northward progress into the southern half of New England pre-dawn Monday and has held steady since then.  In the boundary layer, the atmosphere moistened with the persistent onlshore flow, which brought lowering cloud bases for a time, though that trend will turn around later Monday afternoon through Monday evening as dry advection from the high pressure center over Quebec is pumped south into New England on the strong northeast flow.  Of course, this northeast flow is so strong thanks to the pressure gradient between the Eastern Canada high and the low pressure center over the Mid-Atlantic.  The result is a strong east-northeast wind through a marine layer, maximized overnight Monday night when 940 mb winds of 45 kts should mix down periodically as some 50 mph gusts on Cape Cod and perhaps the far South Shore.  Widespread gusts have already been 30+ and should go 40+ mph in Eastern coastal MA before we're done.  The dry advection in the lower levels is credited for holding off an otherwise moist flow.  In fact, that dry air will really come spilling south once the storm center starts to move east and a north-northeast wind takes hold later Monday night, bringing clearing skies southward.  This sets most areas up for sunshine early Tuesday, though some clouds will probably start the day on Cape Cod thanks to a continued flow across ocean water, though it's cool and dry advection by that point, so I wouldn't expect the deck to last long.

From that point on, Tuesday improves, with winds gradually diminishing as the storm center pulls away from New England.  Mixing is remarkably deep on Tuesday...perhaps as high as 800 mb and this will mean a super-dry adiabatic lapse rate.  Some cirrus cover is still probable behind the departing low with a lobe of strengthening vorticity that still needs to swing through with elevated dynamic lift.  Nonetheless, a gorgeous day is expected and temps will rebound handily as the air that produced daytime highs in the 60s across the Canadian border on Monday comes south and couples with tremendous mixing to boost back up into the mid 60s yet again.  Was tempted to go warmer given the mixing, but a northerly wind and the fact that the airmass itself is cool and dry in origin suggested that wouldn't be wise.

The storm departing over the Atlantic becomes a broad, expansive upper level low by midweek, with cyclonic flow extending from Nova Scotia and Newfoundland south to Bermuda and beyond over the Western Atlantic.  This upper level trough is followed by an amplified ridge that muscles into New England on Wednesday, bringing subsidence (sinking air) and some weak return of warm advection.  Of course, the best warm advection comes behind the ridge axis, so it's tough to get any deep warmth into New England on Wednesday, and a bit easier to do that over New York State.  Nonetheless, gradual warming and continued sunshine seems like a good bet, with a decrease in the cirrus deck that was present on Tuesday.

By this point, it will be important to take a step back and look at the big picture.  The longwave pattern from Monday to Wednesday transitions from Eastern Pacific ridge/Western US trough/Central US ridge/Eastern US trough, to amplified EPac/Western US ridge/Central US trough/Eastern US northern stream trough & southern stream flat ridge/Western Atlantic trough.  The ridge that previously had been amplifying over the Northeast is being beaten down by polar energy rotating around the base of the polar vortex, and this sets up an unstable wave pattern.  To make this simpler...we don't have an equal and opposite reaction for the amplified, broad, expansive ridge in the Western US and Eastern Pacific, and we need one.  There needs to be some sort of wave change here, and that transition will occur from Thursday into the upcoming weekend, as the necessary deep and broad Eastern US trough develops to bring equilibrium to the pattern.  This will come in stages, with multiple shortwaves exerting influence on New England - both the southern fringe of the polar vortex energy spinning through Quebec, and northern stream but farther southward displaced energy ejecting out of the base of a positively tilted Midwest trough, racing over New England.

This type of a pattern sets up timing dilemmas, without fail, because the key is now to time TWO fast moving streams of energy.  Good luck!  It's a fairly good bet, though, that the northernmost of these vorticity maximums will throw a cold front south out of Canada on Thursday, and though boundary layer warm advection will maximize ahead of this front, the question for Thursday temperatures at the surface will revolve around how much insolation we see...which may be limited by cirrus and altocumulus riding ahead of the front...so actually throttled back just slightly as compared to the dry warmth of Wednesday...understanding, also, that moistening a dry airmass will favor cooling it evaporatively, even if warm advection is underway.

Again, this only begins the process of dropping the heights over the Northeast and Eastern United States, and the next vorticity maximum moving out of the Midwest rides through on Friday.  In my on-air broadcast this morning, I had Friday dry and decent with precipitation missing us to the south and a bubble of high pressure moving in.  While that's still a possibility, as I look at this setup a bit closer, I wouldn't bet the farm on it!  The problem here is that, while there is excellent agreement in the guidance of suppressing the precipitation south of New England on Friday, there's also pretty good agreement on carrying the upper level energy directly overhead.  Those of you who read regularly know already which one I prefer to follow...the upper level energy.  And with a west-southwest flow developing in the mid-levels, and coming from the Midwest trough that will have at least some tap to the Gulf of Mexico, I'm not comfortable with a dry forecast.

The potential for wet weather really cranks up this weekend, when there's going to have to be something that gives somewhere between Lake Huron and New England!  That's a broad and silly sounding statement to make, but the fast and expansive lowering of heights with numerous strong shortwaves dumping into a carving Eastern US trough...along with a steady feed of Gulf Moisture...will have to result in a significant precip event, and I wouldn't be surprised to find a Great Lakes primary and coastal secondary as the trough carves east on Saturday, with plenty of leftover energy and cold pool aloft on Sunday.  This will become clearer with time, but that seems like a reasonable evolution.

Matt

ANOTHER MAJOR NATURAL DISASTER OVERSEAS...DEVASTATING EARTHQUAKE IN CHINA

Yet another major natural disaster appears to be producing catastrophic death and destruction.  This time, it's a magnitude 7.8 earthquake in China - centered in Sichuan Province, located in South Central China.  The news broke during my Wakeup News and Weather show at 5 AM to 6 AM on NECN, and though initial reports from the Chinese state-run media was of no damage or injuries, I knew that was nearly impossible.  A 7.8 quake with an epicenter some 60 miles from a heavily populated city and surrounded by a number of other moderately populated cities, and at a depth of 6 miles (not that deep for such a strong quake) seemed destined to cause catastrophic damage.  Through the morning, updated reports have been coming in - at latest report the death toll was at 9,000 and rising...but several thousand more seem likely due to collapsing buildings and infrastructure.

TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE: THE LINK IS STILL FUZZY, AND DEBATED

Cyclone Nargis was only the latest major storm to make headlines as it roared ashore in Burma with widespread and significant death and destruction.  Are tropical storms - and storms in general - getting stronger than they've ever been?  If they are, is climate change to blame?  The international AFP news organization examines this issue from France, and discovers nothing too groundbreaking - there is great debate among even the most intelligent scientists.

Have a thought on this item?  Share it in the comments section of this post!

IN BRITAIN, UNIVERSITY STUDIES STRIVE TO LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE ON CLIMATE

Durham University Professor Stuart Lane is predicting a wet stretch for Britain in years to come.  Whether this is directly linked to climate change or not is a statement the Professor isn't willing to make, as he's examined the changing, but repeating, patterns in the jet stream winds aloft that steer storms and separate cold air to the north from warmth to the south, and he's found the same thing other researchers have - natural fluctuations in jet stream location that can bring wet and dry periods.  In fact, Professor Lane comments that modern day society has lost sight of just how common floods can be, when compared to an extended record back a couple hundred years.  Click here to reference the press release from Durham University, in Britain.

Have a thought on this item?  Share it in the comments section of this post!

TROPICAL CYCLONE NARGIS FEARED TO LEAVE 100,000 DEAD AND MILLIONS HOMELESS IN MYANMAR WHEN ALL ARE ACCOUNTED FOR

The recent storm that struck Myanmar, also known as Burma, delivered a catastrophic blow that has brought parts of the country to its knees.  Though the Burmese government acknowledges approximately 50,000 dead, U.S. officials estimate that by the time all are counted - those who perished in the storm and those who will perish as a result of spreading disease, malnutrition and tainted water in the days and weeks to follow, the death toll should top out somewhere around 100,000 people, with a million or perhaps millions homeless.  A few questions have surfaced after this event.  How could the initial death toll be 350 people the day after the storm, and now around 100,000?  Obviously there is a ridiculous difference there, and there are a few reasons.  First, we're dealing with a military junta that rules Myanmar, and they are not a pro-American, or pro-Western, government.  Therefore, any sign of suffering in this storm is seen as a sign of weakness, and the initial reaction will be to admit far less damage, death and destruction than actually occurred.  Controlling the state-run media, this also means the government has firm control over what information is released to people within and outside of the country.  Second, there is the reality that often, in major storms and natural disasters, the scope is unimaginable until surveys of damage are done.  In this case, those charged with rescues are finding that entire towns have simply been swept away and wiped off the map, meaning as each obliterated town is discovered, several thousand are added to the death toll.  Another question is, exactly what is a "cyclone?"  The term "cyclone" refers to any storm.  Think of the last rain storm that moved through your area - that was a cyclone.  Likewise, a tornado is a type of cyclone.  Over warm waters in the Tropical Atlantic, we refer to Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes, but again, these are all "cyclones," and as a whole, storms forming in the tropics are referred to as tropical cyclones.  In America, we classify the storms as just mentioned here.  In other parts of the world, like the Western Pacific, storms are referred to as Typhoons and Super Typhoons.  In other parts, still, the storms are simply referred to as Tropical Cyclones - the meteorological name for a storm developing in the tropics.  Hence, Tropical Cyclone Nargis, or "Cyclone Nargis," was responsible for the destruction in Myanmar.