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RAIN REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MORE SHOULD FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A GREAT MOTHER'S DAY ON THE WAY

I think we're looking pretty much on target from yesterday's discussion (below) for this afternoon/evening storm and for the weekend, though there's been a definite southward shift in the precipitation forecast in the next 24-36 hours.  Not really a shift in the axis of heaviest precipitation, but rather some slimmer amounts on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield.  Remember that you can follow the rain via the radar images on the right side of this page.

I still like the idea of holding clouds and drizzle in Eastern New England Saturday morning, until the wind shifts to blow from the north rather than the northeast.  This should mean morning clearing in Western New England, and afternoon breaks in Eastern New England during the afternoon.  This comes as high pressure builds in, and the remainder of the forecast is unchanged for now, with a fantastic Mother's Day, and another storm moving south of New England on Monday into Tuesday, stalling south of New England.  There is uncertainty on the position of the storm, but I continue to favor a solution close enough for significant precip Monday into Tuesday.  That said, a more southern solution may not pull enough cool air southward for any snowflakes in the higher terrain of the north, but I wouldn't completely write that possibility off just yet.  Looks like we'll have something to sink our teeth into on Monday here...

Matt

SEVERAL STRONG STORMS TO AFFECT NEW ENGLAND

First off, my sincere apologies that a discussion never followed yesterday after my initial post that one would show up after my appearance.  I actually fell asleep literally in the middle of writing it.  Woke up hours later with the laptop still on my lap!  I promise I'm fully awake now, however, so you'll have to put up with me for a full discussion.  ;)

Let's start out with the current scenario, which features a west to east oriented dry tongue in the mid-levels evaporating the clouds and mixing down.  The toughest spot to break up the clouds will be farthest from the dry slot and closest to the mid-level frontal boundary south of New England that continues to focus clouds and showers.  The Outer Cape and Islands will have a challenge getting all that much sun out, as will Northern and Eastern Maine, where the surface warm front has slowed significantly.  These cloudier areas will both come back the cooler spots in New England.  Winds have picked up markedly where deep mixing is underway, however, and gusts to as high as 30 from the southwest and west are a good bet.  This is also a downsloping flow, aiding in the boundary layer drying and warming Thursday afternoon.

Skies will actually clear for awhile Thursday night with dry air through a deep atmospheric column, but clouds will increase again late in advance of the slug of warm and moist advection forcing the midlevel front northward again.  At the surface, the southward moving cold front will gradually stall south of New England on Thursday night and Friday, and will serve as a pathway for the impressive, sprialing vortex over the Midwest...soon to be over the Lower Ohio Valley.  Traveling along the baroclinic zone established by the stationary end of this same cold front pushing through New England today, the storm will pass south of New England on Friday, strengthening on its way by as the confluence of airmasses between the tropical supply of Gulf air from its south and the cool, dry air over New England meet in the waters south of Long Island.  Of course, the strengthening counter-clockwise flow will strengthen Atlantic inflow, contributing to the available moisture and helping to crank out heavy rainfall in the Southern half of New England.  Good agreement on a 2"+ rain event for Southern New England - especially from Boston to Hartford points southeast - with as much as 3" possible Narragansett Bay area/Buzzards Bay.  That heavy precip axis may shift just slightly north in reality with a bit of northward flex to the mid-level front, but the bottom line is that rain will be measured in inches - one to three of them - for the whole southern half of New England.  As for timing and intensity, a morning development should start out light but fill in more and more as the day wears on, and both southerly, then easterly input are established, and though the upper level energy is impressive, there will be plenty of low level dynamics at play here, too, and the strengthening surface low will play a bit role in keeping heavy precip going Friday evening and night.  Additional concerns that will have to be dealt with include coastal flooding with astronomically high tide cycles and onshore flow/large waves - though I don't expect the coastal flooding to be significant, beach erosion may be the larger problem owing to pounding surf produced by another concern, which is the gale force wind and high seas over Southeastern and Southern Coastal waters, with sustained 30-40 knot winds a good bet south of ACK and MVY.

Big question for Saturday is how long to keep the storm around for.  The GFS has been consistent in keeping it moving, which makes sense until the low starts to stack over Nova Scotia, then it must stall.  Still, there's certainly enough lingering northeast wind component at the surface that you really have to leave clouds and drizzle in for early Saturday, then its a race against time with getting the wind to shift - as only a shift to the north or north-northwest would be enough to break the marine hold.  Looks like that should happen in eastern areas from north to south, midday onward on Saturday, though the Cape may stay gray.  Sunday is a day off between systems.

As was mentioned in the last discussion (two days ago), we remain in a pattern favorable for storms to move near to us and strengthen given the mean trough position.  And the next does just that - once again passing south of New england and strengthening handily.  Of course, the trick here is that if you deepen enough storms south of New England, you keep dragging colder, drier air farther southward across Eastern Canada and into New England.  There may not be a big well of arctic air to work with, but a strong northeast wind in Monday's storm does introduce the potential for flakes by late Monday or Monday night in Northern New England - probably a good bet in the higher terrain with cold 850 mb temps around or below zero Celsius!  I'm also concerned about the potential for an extended beach erosion and possible coastal flood event at the beginning of next week given that this storm may stack and therefore stall while maturing right over or immediately south of Southern New England.  This will be one to keep a very close eye on, though we may see some changes in the (currently well agreed upon) prognosis, as the guidance gets a more firm grasp on the speed and intensity of the Friday/Friday night storm.

That's all for today.
Matt

AS MOISTURE LOADS ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION, NORTHEAST REMAINS AMONG COOLEST, DRIEST IN THE LOWER 48

In meteorology, the measure of moisture and temperature is often conducted via the use of what's called "equivalent potential temperature," or theta-e for short.  This is an odd sounding term, and the definition is rather complex (though for those interested, I'd encourage you to double click on the term to find out more - just like most of the terms that appear in this discussion), but the bottom line is that theta-e represents the temperature a parcel of air would have if it were raised higher in the sky, saturated, then lowered back down to nearly ground level.  By measuring theta-e, we can get an overview of temperature and moisture content of an airmass.  So, examining the 1 PM EST theta-e map shows the coolest and driest air in the nation along the Northern Tier of the United States, including the Northeast.  Meanwhile, the Gulf of Mexico has opened a steady flow of moist, warm, tropical air into the country's center, where a fast westerly flow aloft is resulting in flare-ups of thunderstorms and thunderstorm complexes. 

Meanwhile, a reinforcing shot of cool and dry air is moving into New England, marked on the leading edge by a cold front and dragged behind a weak upper level shortwave that is moving steadily east out of Ontario and dropping over New England.  This vorticity maximum (energy center) strengthens somewhat as it rides overhead, and this results in rising air across New England.  Coupled with the focus of a wind shift near the cool front in the lower levels, conditions are favorable for bubbling cumulus clouds, and some of those clouds are likely to yield showers Tuesday afternoon.  Not only does this front have a history of producing showers, but the combination of warm temperatures near the surface and orographic lift are creating favorable conditions for enhanced lifting of air...meaning enhanced cloud development near especially mountains and hills, and this should be enough for some convective showers, especially where the hills are assisting.  Additionally, an embedded thunderstorm can't be ruled out where the greatest surface instability exists in the warmest air of the Lower CT River Valley, and while exceptionally low dewpoints will be battling logic of thunderstorm development, the cyclonic vorticity advection and cold pool aloft will come close to overcoming it.

Skies clear Tuesday night behind the weak cold front as the drier air moves in.  With a relatively light but constantly active breeze through the night, only the deepest valleys of the North Country are likely to see a frost, with some of Southeastern New England actually hanging in the 50s.  This gives a decent platform to build from on Wednesday, and with heights quickly rebounding as shortwave ridging moves in, cold advection behind the front is extremely brief and cannot survive in the lower levels with warm advection already on the move aloft.  This does mean that clouds are likely to increase later Wednesday in the warm and moist advection aloft, but temps will already have responded to plenty of insolation by that point.  This moisture moving in comes in top to bottom, meaning there's little chance of any precipitation with dry boundary layers and no deep lift.  Of course, this changes dramatically Wednesday night with one vortex over Hudson Bay and the other over Arkansas both teaming up for a strengthening southwest flow through a deep layer of the atmosphere, teaming lower and middle altitude warm and moist advection with the nose of a strenghtening low level jet to the tune of 50-60 knots heading right into New England Wednesday night with moderate speed convergence moving overhead.  Remembering the source region of this air, this should mean a shot of heavy rain late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  This puts New England in an area of post-vorticity subsidence (anticyclonic vorticity advection), a dry slot in the mid-levels and a small warm sector at the surface on Thursday afternoon, which may not be able to penetrate all the way to the Canadian border, but should successfully move warmer air into Southern and Central New England with some sunshine emerging.  Is a thunderstorm possible during the afternoon?  At the surface this cold front/warm front progression with a triple point moving across Northern New England actually looks synoptically to favor severe thunderstorms with great helicity supporting sustained updrafts.  If sun breaks through, enough surface based instability would be present, too.  What right now looks as though it would be the significantly limiting factor is the combination of midlevel drying (substantial) and strong midlevel confluence.  This argues for a dry slot thru most of Thursday after the morning rain.  This gives time for the triple point to move thru, dragging its attendant cold front south and that front drops south of New England Thursday night.

Of course, it's that cold front that serves as a pathway for the next surface storm, which will be a reflection of the upper level vorticity center.  That vorticity maximum rides just south of the South Coast of New England, and while that's been enough for the guidance to suppress QPF mostly south of New England, the 500 mb vorticity forecast still indicates this energy center rides close enough to New England for most of Southern New England to get into a steady, cool Friday rain, with Northern New England seeing lighter amounts, or perhaps largely escaping any effects.

Though the upper low does start to deepen directly overhead - and this should create a deepening storm, fortifying my belief in a cold rain - and the deepening may slow it briefly later Friday, all indications are that this remains progressive enough to be out by Saturday, affording a good start to the weekend.  Of course, there's somewhat low certainty here, because there are questions about how the Canadian vortex interacts with the parade of moderate strength shortwaves riding to its south, and at some point a merger of northern and southern stream energy seems likely to happen.  The 12Z GGEM (global Canadian) suggests this happens sooner in the game, returning rain by later Saturday.  The GFS reflects it on Sunday, and the Canadian Ensemble means keep New England just ahead of the next low.  For now, I think at least a chance of returning rain to the forecast seems wise for Sunday, though I'd opt to delay start time until sometime during the late morning or afternoon, to account for some sluggishness exhibited in both the Canadian and American Ensemble products.

With the mean trough position still over us and just to our west (most of the time, just to our west) through the third week of May, this argues for continued decent chances of significant precip events.

That's all for today....
Matt

GREAT START TO THE WEEK...RAINY FINISH LOOKS LIKELY

After a rather glum weekend that brought heartier cloud growth than I expected on Saturday afternoon, and more widespread showers as a result.  Fog was exceptionally dense this morning in parts of New England, specifically Northeast MA (where visibility on my ride in was about 3 or 4 car lengths at times!) and Central NH.  That low level moisture came as a result of clearing skies last night with already cool temps easily dropping to the dewpoint, but that also meant the relatively thin nature of the deck allowed them to burn off.

Prevailing wind is light across New England today, and along the coastline that will mean a sea breeze kicking in during the afternoon.  As opposed to what we normally see this time of the year - an ocean component to the wind, enhancing or slightly shifting a borderline synoptic wind direction to change it just enough to blow in off the ocean - this will be a true sea breeze today, with light wind allowing the rising, diurnally warmed air over the interior to rise and set up the classic sea breeze scenario.  Where the air is rising over inland communities, expect fair weather cumulus clouds to be scattered, but not a dominant feature of the day.  Ground and boundary layer moisture will certainly be contributors to cumulus development.  The ambient air, however, is dry, mixing down to the boundary layer and allowing for mostly clear skies overnight Monday night.  The result will be to cool the land quickly in many areas, with a frost and patches of fog likely for Northern, Central and Western New England Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Again, the ground moisture will play some role in this process, but like Monday morning, anything that develops should be thin and ready to burn off as mixing takes place Tuesday morning.

Tuesday sees a cold front moving east across the Great Lakes and toward New England.  The shortwave driving this front is progressive and zips along the Canadian border Tuesday night, and the surface reflection...the cold front...will weaken as it encounters the surface ridge.  More importantly with regard to speed and intensity of the surface front is that the mid level heights at 500 mb are quickly rebounding and this means warmth moving back in aloft, so the surface front will slow and weaken.  With frontal passage looking like a late afternoon through evening passage, it may be a bit delayed from maximum heating but some orographically enhanced showers will be possible in the higher terrain of Northern New England, while I feel the NMM is overly unstable due to too much boundary layer moisture.

The air behind Tuesday's front is not substantially cooler, nor do the heights fall very impressively, indicating there's not much support to the cool air push aloft, either.  The result should be somewhat noticeably cooler temperatures for Northern New England on Wednesday, though little sensible change is expected in the Southern half of the region, given the weak southward push to the new air.  Cirrus clouds seem likely to move in later Wednesday in advance of the next upper level low that will be well-defined over the Ohio Valley with a deep west-southwest flow ahead of it transporting moisture in ahead of the actual vorticity maximum, which will strengthen while moving just south of New England on Friday.  Though statistical guidance for Friday is warm, a path like this favors a surface track to our south and that would be a cool solution, so that's the way I've gone for now, but the hope is that the low stays progressive.

That's all for today!
Matt

SUNSHINE TO BE AT A PREMIUM FOR MANY THIS WEEKEND

There's not a lot of change to the forecast to pass along today, as the synoptic setup remains the same as described yesterday - low level cool and dry air moving in at the same time middle and high altitude warmth and moisture moves in.

This differential advection assures a tricky sky cover forecast, but there's good agreement among the guidance.  This means dry and cool advection from the east overnight Friday night into Saturday, with relative humidity below 850 mb decreasing, while 850 mb and up remains saturated for most of New England - especially around 700 mb where mid-level front is established.  This puts Maine in sunshine but the rest of New England will be mostly cloudy with perhaps thin enough cloud cover in Northern NH for some dim sunshine.  The other slight possibility for sunshine is in SW CT, under the mid level ridge axis and behind the mid-level front, but this seems unlikely given the nearby boundary layer front.  Lack of shortwave means no precipitation likely for all areas.

Saturday afternoon thru Saturday night, strong vorticity maximum will spawn strong and severe thunder from Ern OH Valley into NY/PA.  Tho this stays west of NewEng Sat night, seems likely it will propagate east on Sunday AM.  While the lift is impressive, the convective band will probably outrun the dynamic support, and will be coming into dry and stable airmass, so weakening and loss of organization is possible.  Even so, strengthened cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of the vorticity maximum is likely to renew rainfall Sunday with an increasing likelihood for a north-south oriented band of moderate to heavy rain, as the typically favorable setup of differential advection causing precipitation cranks up, especially Sunday afternoon/evening.

Originally it seemed likely this upper low would move slowly enough to keep a meandering coastal surface low reflection just off the coast of Cape Cod with periodic rain Monday and perhaps lingering into Tuesday, but the trend in 12Z runs Friday is for quicker progression with lingering rain and a cool northeast flow Monday, then improvement on Tuesday.  At this point, the implied northeast flow into Monday suggests we shouldn't be planning on any significant temperature rises.

The overall pattern of Eastern US troffing is likely to hold the first half of May, as the ridge upstream over the Western US shows no signs of diminishing, and the wavelength is unlikely to change across the Lower 48.

Matt

THANKFULLY, RIVER LEVELS RECEDE

Today's pictures of Fort Kent are provided by Sgt. Paul Vincent.  If you've been following the graph of the St. John River here on Mattnoyes.net, you've seen the clear drop in the water levels.  This is fantastic news for folks along the St. John because it means water levels are dropping, no new flooding is expected to occur in the areas that were holding their breaths, and the center of town escaped catastrophe. Incidentally, the river level crested at 30.14 feet - some 5 feet above the old record crest, and the most in nearly 100 years of record keeping.  Amazing!  Still, the levee was just tall enough to hold back the water, with .86 feet - or a jaw-dropping 10.3 inches - of "spare room" at the top of the levee.  Those of you who saw my previous posts including pictures of the levee and rising water can put this into perspective, and for this meteorologist, it really is the part of river flooding that has always been stunning to me - that such a tiny amount of such a massive body of water can play a critical role in the lives of so many.

Of course, there are still problems in Aroostook County, and the St. John isn't the only river that's flooded.  New evacuations were needed even after the St. John started to fall at Fort Kent, as Van Buren continued to see water levels rising.  Nonetheless, with the runoff successfully into the waterways now, all rivers should turn around and fall.

For those of you reading from Northern Maine, heading home can't come soon enough.  Even those who know their homes were damaged are anxious to get in and inspect the damage.  Authorities in some communities may tell you not to return yet, though, and as hard as that is to hear, it's wise advice to follow.  With infrastructure like electricity, sewerage, and other potential threats that will need to be examined, wait until you're given the OK to head in and inspect.  When you get to your home or business, expect the following:

• Flooding is still ongoing, and still significant, in many areas
• River levels will only slowly recede, but will continue to drop
• Roads to your home or business may be washed out - know alternate routes
• Infrastructure may be compromised, including buildings, roads, bridges, dams, utilities, propane tanks and even stream beds - that last one is important given the number of kids who'll get a thrill out of seeing the fast water close-up by standing on the banks of the rivers and streams...keep in mind that they may be weakened by erosion
• Be aware that new, unwanted critters may be in the structure - perhaps brought in by floodwaters or perhaps driven to the building for shelter when their own was flooded
• Take pictures (ideally digital) and video of any and all damage.  This is absolutely critical to receiving reimbursement when the time comes.  The Small Business Administration may be able to help you with reimbursement (even if you're not a business), but usually only if you have documentation
• Disinfect everything.  Our rivers are clean in the North...but not clean enough to live in!
• If you have insurance, file your claim as soon as you possibly can.  It will take time.

Have a comment, thought or observation to share?  Use the comments section of this post.

-Matt

THANKFULLY, RIVER LEVELS RECEDE

Today's pictures of Fort Kent are provided by Sgt. Paul Vincent.  If you've been following the graph of the St. John River here on Mattnoyes.net, you've seen the clear drop in the water levels.  This is fantastic news for folks along the St. John because it means water levels are dropping, no new flooding is expected to occur in the areas that were holding their breaths, and the center of town escaped catastrophe. Incidentally, the river level crested at 30.14 feet - some 5 feet above the old record crest, and the most in nearly 100 years of record keeping.  Amazing!  Still, the levee was just tall enough to hold back the water, with .86 feet - or a jaw-dropping 10.3 inches - of "spare room" at the top of the levee.  Those of you who saw my previous posts including pictures of the levee and rising water can put this into perspective, and for this meteorologist, it really is the part of river flooding that has always been stunning to me - that such a tiny amount of such a massive body of water can play a critical role in the lives of so many.

Of course, there are still problems in Aroostook County, and the St. John isn't the only river that's flooded.  New evacuations were needed even after the St. John started to fall at Fort Kent, as Van Buren continued to see water levels rising.  Nonetheless, with the runoff successfully into the waterways now, all rivers should turn around and fall.

For those of you reading from Northern Maine, heading home can't come soon enough.  Even those who know their homes were damaged are anxious to get in and inspect the damage.  Authorities in some communities may tell you not to return yet, though, and as hard as that is to hear, it's wise advice to follow.  With infrastructure like electricity, sewerage, and other potential threats that will need to be examined, wait until you're given the OK to head in and inspect.  When you get to your home or business, expect the following:

• Flooding is still ongoing, and still significant, in many areas
• River levels will only slowly recede, but will continue to drop
• Roads to your home or business may be washed out - know alternate routes
• Infrastructure may be compromised, including buildings, roads, bridges, dams, utilities, propane tanks and even stream beds - that last one is important given the number of kids who'll get a thrill out of seeing the fast water close-up by standing on the banks of the rivers and streams...keep in mind that they may be weakened by erosion
• Be aware that new, unwanted critters may be in the structure - perhaps brought in by floodwaters or perhaps driven to the building for shelter when their own was flooded
• Take pictures (ideally digital) and video of any and all damage.  This is absolutely critical to receiving reimbursement when the time comes.  The Small Business Administration may be able to help you with reimbursement (even if you're not a business), but usually only if you have documentation
• Disinfect everything.  Our rivers are clean in the North...but not clean enough to live in!
• If you have insurance, file your claim as soon as you possibly can.  It will take time.

Have a comment, thought or observation to share?  Use the comments section of this post.

-Matt

THE LEADING EDGE TO SUMMER AIR WILL BE SO CLOSE...YET, SO FAR...THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND

Another day that doesn't end - thus the 6 PM post as I finally have time to share some thoughts on the weather for you night owls who are interested.  I promise to keep it short.

Basically, the attention in the coming days will be on the front that's draped across PA with showers.  This front is stationary at the surface, but has varying intensity of warm and moist advection from 850 mb to 700 mb dependent upon each midlevel shortwave rippling through the flow ahead of an amplifying ridge.  So, the overall theme to really grasping the forecast, at least in this meteorologist's opinion, is the idea of a slow moving but well defined low level front that will flare up with the passage of shortwaves, but also will quiet in the anticyclonic vorticity advection and subsidence behind them, with the constant cloudy exception to that rule found in the immediate vicinity of the frontal boundary.  This was evidenced in PA today, and will probably continue to play out over the life of the front.  Of course, with an amplifying ridge building into the Northeast in the coming days, there will be warm advection through a broad layer several thousand feet off the ground.  Hence, the abundant cloud cover over a large area of the cool side of the front with the passage of shortwave induced warm advection.  If not for the fact that confluent flow will remain east and northeast of New England thanks to the stalled upper low northeast of Maine, we'd be able to burst the late spring warmth of surface temperatures in the 70s and 80s up the remainder of the Eastern Seaboard from the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian Mountain Chain, and warm up quite a bit here in New England.  But the trick this time around is that confluent flow in the middle and upper levels - favoring a surface anticyclone building/maintaining just east of New England and holding an easterly component to the wind that will keep cooler, drier air in place, and hold the warmth to our west.  Though this results in continued periods of differential advection with warm advection aloft and cool near the surface - and that can sometimes produce prolific precipitation - the air in the lowest few thousand feet of atmosphere should be too dry to support much precipitation, limiting raindrops to only when the lift and warm surges are greatest, which will correspond to the passage of each vorticity maximum.

So, to put this all together, it looks like tonight (Thursday night) into Friday morning will be the first round of rainfall for southwest New England, but as the rain starts to move east/northeast with the vorticity maximum Friday morning, it will outrun its lower level support, and rain will dissipate to scattered showers, waning in intensity and giving way to leftover clouds in differential advection but a mostly dry Friday afternoon.  The next shortwave is on tap for Friday night into Saturday, and this one also should get showers going in southwestern New England, closest to the boundary layer front that will still be stalled to our southwest.  Though these clouds may linger on Saturday morning in Eastern New England, these eastern areas should see enough dry advection to break the deck up for some sun during the day.  Meanwhile, most of Northern New England stays safely removed from this nonsense to enjoy only intervals of clouds through the period.  Still, while eastern Central and Southern New England should find breaks, western locations - including most of CT and Western MA - may be far enough removed from the easterly dry advection...and close enough to the frontal boundary...to maintain saturated low levels and a totally cloudy day.  At some point near this wavering front, the collision of airmasses should breed convection, and the backing wind profile should support severe weather near and on the warm side of the front.  Right now, on Saturday, that appears to be Long Island to New Jersey, not New England, and even there it's more based on the synoptically favorable that I say this, as there's not a well-defined vorticity maximum overhead, but rather broadscale but still relatively weak cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of the large vort max digging east out of the Great Lakes.  Nonetheless, it's an area and time period to watch.

In New England, the battle of dry air from the east and moisture near the front should continue on Sunday, but eventually the ejecting intense energy from the Great Lakes will break down the ridge, driving showers east into New England later Sunday.  By Monday and Tuesday, there's lots of disagreement among the guidance, and especially Ensemble members, among what to do with the energy, but the general, rather blurry agreement on the evolution of the system seems to be to take this south and then southeast of New England, spawning perhaps a slow moving coastal reflection to deliver some meaningful precipitation Monday into Tuesday, though timing and intensity will have to wait for increasing agreement in the guidance.  Nonetheless, the notion of a slow moving upper low makes sense given that it'll be replacing a rather amplified ridge and steering winds should be rather weak.

Matt

LATE DISCUSSION TODAY

Thursday's discussion will be out late-afternoon, after an appearance today.

Matt