In the short term, winds diminish as surface ridge axis moves over NY State tonight, keeping a light northerly wind for most of New England, but only at a few miles per hour and calm in sheltered valleys. The result will be widespread lows in the 30s and 40s with 30s in most of the protected valleys, though frost is unlikely given the lack of moisture in the boundary layer with dewpoints in the 20s, though deeper valleys of Northern New England are likely to find saturation as some of the hollows will drop into the upper 20s.
Strong sun angle will provide a quick temperature rebound Wednesday morning, though we'll be challenged to equal max temps in extreme Eastern/coastal New England, believe it or not, owing to the combination of the surface ridge axis moving through with subsidence limiting amount of mixing a bit, and with southeast component to the surface wind providing a bleed of air off the Atlantic. Most of interior New England, though, should find a light southerly flow providing for enough mixing and low level warm advection to outdo Tuesday's max temps by about 4 or 5 degrees.
Thursday's frontal passage still brings maximized warming in the boundary layer ahead of the front, but I'm still thinking that plenty of cloud debris ahead of the front will weaken solar input to hold down max temps for many areas prior to the front, then showers should be rather scattered in nature owing to very weak vorticity lobe that really swings thru around 18Z, then another that is quite weak that comes through around 06Z. As for Friday, isn't it interesting that in yesterday's discussion, together we looked at how much agreement there was on keeping QPF south, but we trusted the vorticity prog, and now the surface forecast is coming into line?! Yet again, the guidance actually performed decently well, but did so aloft, and that was an important characteristic to the forecast. With the strongest warm advection to move through Friday night into Saturday morning, this very well should be the heaviest precipitation swath, but convective precipitation will linger throughout the weekend - even as downsloping westerly winds take over on Sunday.
As described yesterday (see below) this sets up a longwave Eastern US trough, and the result should be for cooler than normal temperatures throughout next week.
Matt
Hello Matt,
I won the wheather word about 2 years ago. I know this has nothing to do with wheater, but I am suffering a family loss, and am trying to enter Billy Costa's latest contest as for why my husband & I should win a weekend getaway to a Boston hotel.....would you please forward this to him...
My beloved Dad passed away 2 years ago this coming July 14th. His beautiful sister (my favorite aunt passed away yesterday)....we grew up in Peabocy, Mass., I now live in South Berwuick, Maine...anyhow...
The following is a re-telling of a story my dad wrote before he passed (He used to tell it to his own children (myself included) and then his grand-children...i hope you like it...it has very special meaning to the Konovalchik family...
07/16/2006 victoria gabrielle
peabody, mass, USA
Once upon a time there lived three beautiful princesses, Christina, Victoria, and Lyndsay. They were the most beautiful princess in all the world. They lived in a castle on a large hill with their mommy and daddy. The greratest thing about the whole castle was what was in the backyard. In the backyard was a tree. It was no ordinary tree; oh no it wasn't. This tree was a fruit tree, but the fruits were like nothing you've ever tasted before; beter than any ice cream, cake, candy, better then your favorite food. This was a Sugar Plum Tree. Every time you would pluck a sugar plum, *POP!*, another one would appear in the same spot, and the best part was you could eat and eat and eat sugar plums all day and never get a bellyache. The only thing you had to do to keep your Sugar Plum Tree was water it every morning. Well, after a while of having the Sugar Plum Tree the three princesses forgot to water the tree. One day after school the girls ran out back to have some Sugar Plums, but the Sugar Plum Tree was no where to be found. They looked and looked and looked all but they couldn't find the Sugar Plum Tree. But what they did find was a rock. And on that rock was a note. And the note said, "The Sugar Plum Tree, the Sugar Plum Tree, if you want to find the Sugar Plum Tree you must go to the deepest part of the ocean, for that's where it'll be, that's where you'll find the Sugar Plum Tree." The three princesses left that instant. They walked and they walked until they reached the ocean. They got on a boat and drove the boat to the very middle of the ocean. Once they were right about the spot where it was the deepest, they changed into their swimsuits. But these were no ordinary swimsuits, these were magical swimsuits that allowed the princesses to breath under water. So the three princesses jumped out of the boat and swam down, down, down. Down to the very bottom of the deepest part of the ocean. They looked and looked and looked but they couldn't find the Sugar Plum Tree. But what they did find was a rock. And on that rock was a note. And the note said, "The Sugar Plum Tree, the Sugar Plum Tree, if you want to find the Sugar Plum Tree you must go to the dryest desert, for that's where it'll be, that's where you'll find the Sugar Plum Tree." So the three little princesses swam up, up, up; back up to the boat. They drove boat back to shore and started their long walk to the desert. The little princesses walked, and walked, and walked until they thought they couldn't walk any farther. Finally, they reached the dryest desert. They looked and looked and looked but they couldn't find the Sugar Plum Tree. But what they did find was a rock. And on that rock was a note. And the note said, "The Sugar Plum Tree, the Sugar Plum Tree, if you want to find the Sugar Plum Tree you must go to the highest cloud in the sky, for that's where it'll be, that's where you'll find the Sugar Plum Tree." So the three princesses walked, and walked, and walked until; they reached a hot air balloon. They climbed into the hot air balloon and went up, up, up into the sky. They passed cloud, after cloud, after cloud, until at last they reached the highest cloud in the sky. They looked and looked and looked but they couldn't find the Sugar Plum Tree. But what they did find was a rock. And on that rock was a note. And the note said, "The Sugar Plum Tree, the Sugar Plum Tree, if you want to find the Sugar Plum Tree you must go to the place you miss the most, for that's where it'll be, that's where you'll find the Sugar Plum Tree." "Well," said Princess Christina, "I miss the deepest part of the ocean most. Do you think that's where the Sugar Plum Tree is?" "But I miss the desert the most," said princess Victoria. "How do we know the Sugar Plum Tree isn't there?" "I know the place we miss the most," said Princess Lyndsay quietly. "i miss the castle; i miss mommy and daddy." "Your right!" explained Princess Christina, "I do miss home the most. Let's go right now!" A short while later Pricess Christina, Princess Victoria, and Princess Lyndsay returned back to their castle. They ran inside and gave their parents a big hug and kiss. Then they ran into the back yard, and there was the Sugar Plum Tree. The three little princesses never forgot to water the Sugar Plum Tree again
Thank you for your time,
Sandy (Konovalchik) Thomas-Kaszuba
Posted by: Sandy Thomas-Kaszuba | Saturday, May 17, 2008 at 06:08 PM