A fantastic Friday regionwide with strong vertical mixing to 890 mb or so, and temps at this level support the lower to middle 80s that are in the forecast. Plenty of dry air in place evaporated even cirrus clouds that dared to enter the region! To our west are showers and thunderstorms - convective Western NY clusters along a weakly active warm front. That front represents the leading edge to deeper humidity en route for Saturday.
The transition Friday night will mean milder temperatures and scattered clouds with increasing dewpoints. The moist and warm advection just a couple of thousand feet off the ground will probably breed clouds along and ahead of the surface warm front, which will be located in Eastern MA/NH Saturday morning. With a southeast flow at the surface ahead of the front and warm advection just above it, clouds will mix with sun on the cool side of the front off and on through the day and temperatures will be cooler. On the opposite side of the front, warmth and humidity will provide fuel for thunderstorms ahead of the cold front entering stage left from New York. Convective parameters are best in NY State, but will support a line of thunderstorms into Western New England late Saturday afternoon that will move east Saturday evening, slowing and becoming more stratiform in nature by Saturday night as the front stalls and a wave of low pressure travels along it, south of New England. This will keep showers across the region through Saturday night, then establish a cool and moist easterly flow. Right now, it looks like the eastern third of MA, eastern NH and most of ME will stay mostly cloudy and cool - in the 60s - with a cool surface air moving in, while central and western areas will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s with sunshine.
Monday brings a dirty warm sector polluted by shortwaves and lowering heights/pressure that will breed scattered showers and thunder, then the chance of another wave to our south on Tuesday.
Enjoy the weekend.
Matt
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