Yesterday's forecast and discussion is verifying well, from the isolated tornado threat to the areas of flooding and overnight severe weather threat, to the continuing flooding/tornado/severe weather threat today, not to mention the active wind that is still expected. Therefore, no extensive discussion is needed here today (see yesterday's if you need an overview of the setup, including a map of predicted rainfall totals - that discussion appears below this one, or you can use the archives on the right side of the page). In fact, if anything, the winds may be even stronger than the 50 mph gusts I was originally expecting, as the atmosphere will mix to about 900 mb (a couple thousand feet above ground level) where the wind is cranking at 50-55 knots today, so I'd expect at least a few 55+ mph gusts ahead of the main rain band. This also means the tropical downpours and thunderstorms that continue to develop will have no problem mixing damaging gusts to the surface.
The discrete threat for today continues to be the threat for isolated tornadoes with a deep southeasterly flow. More on this can be found in yesterday's discussion, but the big problem in a tropically saturated airmass is that you get low cloud bases, as the "lifted condensation level" - the altitude where air saturates and a cloud forms - is quite low in such a moist airmass. This can be problematic because you have a strongly favorable environment for rotation, but with such a low cloud base, the only place rotation can occur is within the cloud. As a result, you end up with brief, usually weak tornadoes that develop embedded in a rainband, or even in the base of a cloud, that can evade radar by riding beneath the beam. Therefore, I'd encourage folks to keep checking the radar links on the right side of this page through the day to follow the rain and storms, but also be aware that stronger storms may contain some unwanted features.
No question yesterday was an active day, and the isolated tornado threat not only verified but was captured on camera, thanks to Christopher Legro. I can't tell you how much it means that folks not only think of me after snapping photos like this, but take the time to pass the pictures along. These are compelling images of a tornado over water off of Barrington Beach, RI, that touched down on the late afternoon of July 23. This was the same storm that prompted a tornado warning deep into Southeastern Massachusetts, and for good reason! A classic "waterspout" develops with cold air aloft, above much warmer water. In this case, that wasn't the setup, and this is a bona fide tornado over water. Awesome shots Chris - who reports the tornado was moving northeast toward Rumstick Point, where Chris reports it lifted just prior to moving over land. The sequence is shown below. Enjoy...and keep your cameras at the ready today.
The tornado developing:
Barrington, RI, tornado reaches maturity:
Tornado begins to "rope out," or dissipate, as approaching land:
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