Great to be back with you...now a married man with a longer honey-do list but a much shorter wedding planning list and a ring on the ol' finger. Sorry ladies. (Just kidding).
A few things off the bat - 1) I've updated quite a few items in the Matt's Meteorology Memos and More section, so you'll want to check that out. Will continue to add items of interest that I find. I've found a method to help me streamline that process a bit better to save some time...my biggest problem of late has been the shear amount of time and energy that goes to posting so many items, so streamlining is key, and something I'm figuring out with time. 2) A reminder that the national stories of weather interest are no longer posted on my site - just New England pertinent items - and instead appear on the NationalWeatherOnline.com Headlines and National Weather Page.
As for the weather, did I miss much while I was away? Well, I don't usually miss much about the weather even when I'm off because, like any good weather nut, it's a passion after the burnout of the job wears off, which means I can't stay away for very long. The great part is that Jessica (my new wifey) is on-board with the passion and does a great job of picking out what's addiction to work, and what's truly passion. So, she was more than willing to oblige with picture-taking of cumulonimbus when our drive to our honeymoon in Quebec City turned into a storm chasing excursion with core penetration of a rotating but, in the end, non-tornadic cell. Great beaver tail inflow wrapping around the center, though, and tremendous rainfall. Here are a few pics she and I grabbed: 
What about the weather pattern, you ask? Will I stop with musings of my own life and focus on the weather pattern? Surely. The longwave pattern is actually rather complex, as one look at a 500 mb chart or, more simply, a water vapor loop, can illustrate. Fay is now a stacked low over the Southeast and in a hurry to go nowhere. Actually, she'd like to move into the Northeastern United States if given the opportunity, but that opportunity won't arise in due time for her to make that move, thanks to the now-progressive trough-ridge-trough pattern in the northern stream. Of course, having a trough in place over the Northeast is nothing new, though the increasingly progressive flow is what's transpired over the last week and a couple of days that I've been gone, isn't it? The result is for northwest flow aloft to beat Fay down on her attempt to ride north at first, then for northern stream ridging to hold her at bay a couple days more. By the time the ridge moves far enough east to open the door for Fay, she is but a mere shadow of her former self, and the bulk of her moisture will be dissipated and disorganized.
So, in the meantime, we find entertainment from the northern stream, which is more than willing to oblige with both fun and tricks. The fun, for weather nuts, comes from convection that is firing in advance of a strong northern stream shortwave and associated mid/upper level trough that is driving a surface cold front southeast across New England. Surface convergence has been weakening with this feature today, largely because the prevailing west/southwest wind aloft has been mixing down and becoming more westerly with time, limiting the pronouncement of the wind shift along the frontal boundary. Nonetheless, enough heat and some humidity with dewpoints in the 60s has meant at least some areas of convection. With cold air pouring in aloft, hailstones are possible, along with frequent lightning and perhaps some localized damaging wind given the strong gradient wind out of the southwest and west-southwest that precedes the front.
It's interesting to note the amount of clouds BEHIND the front, as well. These will dissipate overnight for most areas, but are surely a sign of tomorrow's weather as cold air just a few thousand feet aloft will allow lots of cumulus growth for most of New England. So, after Monday night dewpoints fall into the 40s and temps coordinate in Northern and Western New England, and fall into the 50s elsewhere, it's going to be hard to climb all that much on Tuesday with decreasing sunshine blotted out by bubbling clouds that may dominate the sky by late morning or midday. This means I went well below statistical guidance and held most spots except the South Coast in the 60s, with a few upper 50s in the elevated locales of the North Country! Combined with an active northwest wind at 10-20 mph and a few gusts to 25 or 30 mph with solid mixing to 900 mb, there will surely be an autumnal feel across New England on Tuesday! Expect, of course, another chilly one Tuesday night.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday feature the ridge in the northern stream moving over New England, but becoming dynamically unstable - at least weakly - on its leading edge. Those of you who read regularly will remember the term dynamically unstable ridge, and those of you who don't...try double clicking on the term in this discussion. Most browsers support the feature I have here to give you a definition for any term you double click on , though I have to be honest that I'd be impressed if it has "dynamically unstable ridge" in its glossary. But, one never knows. The bottom line is that you get warm advection both ahead of and behind the ridge, and this can amplify downstream lows quickly, which will happen south of Nova Scotia. In this case, no big deal in terms of big effects on New England, but we have to make that a red flag for possible backdoor fronts/low stratus clouds on a cool, moist, northeast flow on Wednesday (unlikely as the low is just cranking to our east then) and more noteably Thursday and Friday as the easterly fetch increases in strength and direction. So, I'm on guard to see just how gray and/or cool I'm going to have to make Thursday and Friday.
As mentioned earlier, by the time the gates to a deeper southwest flow open this weekend, the deepest and most organized of the tropical moisture associated with Fay isn't gone, but it sure isn't what it used to be, or even what it is as of this writing. Some of it splits north, some splits east, and the rest diffuses, meaning northern stream shortwaves could focus this moisture for showers and thunder Saturday and Sunday afternoons, but at this point a soaker seems unlikely, and therefore the early call on the holiday weekend is a pretty good one with afternoon convection.
Enjoy your Monday!
Matt
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