HIGH AND DRY FOR NOW...MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKING GOOD

A few notes for you today - first, many of you have been asking to see wedding pictures...thanks for caring so much (I'm flattered!) and I've posted a video slideshow, along with a list of the best vendors we had and would recommend, on the Meteorology Memos and More Page.

Second, on that same page, above the wedding slideshow, you'll find video of an interview I just did today with Peter Geiger, the editor of the Farmer's Almanac.  I also took some time to analyze and think about the Farmer's Almanac forecast for this winter, which is another bold prediction...numbingly cold and snowy.  Last year I'd examined how unlikely, statistically speaking, it would be to verify a colder than normal forecast, and sure enough, the winter was warmer than normal after a chilly start.  To go even colder for this year is quite daring.

Now, onto the weather at hand.

The short term is quiet, of course, with high pressure drifting over Northern New England and Southern Quebec this afternoon and evening.  We saw the magic of dry air cooling nicely beneath clear skies and a light wind Tuesday night, with 30s verifying in deeper northern valleys.  That may happen tonight in the valleys of central and northern Maine, though for the remainder of New England we've already seen some easterly component kicking in, and that will continue to be the case overnight.  This means a slow and gentle advection of moisture into New England's airmass, and the results will be subtle.  First, overnight lows are unlikely to be as cold because of slowly rising dewpoints, even though the wind should become quite light away from the coastline again.  The increasing moisture also means more patches of fog are likely to be observed through the interior.  Thursday, more cumulus clouds are likely owing to increasing low level moisture, but remember, too, that moist air warms more slowly than dry air, so we're unlikely to find temperatures quite as warm Thursday afternoon as they've been on Wednesday in the eastern third of New England, though central and western areas may not see too much effect, nor will the North Country, where there's no ocean influence to speak of.  Right at the coast, a gradient flow between the high over Eastern Quebec and a low southeast of Nova Scotia will mean a steady northeast wind at 10-20 mph, perhaps with some higher gusts on the Outer Cape, and this will keep immediate coastal locales of especially Southern New England rather brisk.

Nonetheless, the forecast remains dry through Friday as subsidence takes charge and hold relatively dry air in place through a good chunk of atmosphere.  There should be plenty of clouds Friday, with an ocean influence and at least a broken marine deck possible in eastern areas, while the southwest flow aloft brings at least enough moist advection for middle and high altitude clouds.  All the while, the moisture split of Fay that was discussed here on Monday is underway, with some heading north and some heading east.  Folks who read this discussion from Western Pennsylvania - especially northwest PA - are in for a rude shock on Thursday, where high temperatures are unlikely to get out of the 50s as rain and moisture saturates a dry antecedent airmass.  And, as expected earlier in the week, also, it appears we're not going to be too concerned with this moisture here in New England.  By the time the next shortwave of substance comes along - on Saturday - the moisture leftover from Fay will be disorganized and dispersed, meaning there will be enough still available to carry northeast in the developing southwest flow ahead of the northern stream shortwave and the approaching surface low and cold front to generate Saturday afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunder, or perhaps even a broken line of convection ahead of the front, but not enough for a formidable slug of rain.  It looks like this should all remain progressive enough that Sunday brings drier air with a bubble high building in, but still a strong shortwave trough aloft that will induce enough lift for hilly and mountainous terrain to see orographically generated showers Sunday afternoon.  Labor Day Monday, the high continues to build in which means weather improves, though the GFS in particular has been hinting at a possible cool advection stratus deck for Central and Eastern ME on Monday, which is something to keep an eye on.  Though a northerly flow will prevail ahead of the approaching anticyclone, the air doesn't seem terrifically cool outside of this potential Maine caveat, and I think the combination of downsloping flow and dry air will actually battle back against cooling effects for both Sunday and Monday.  Could it be another relatively quiet week next week?  Another significant storm will develop nearby, but indications right now are that it will once again develop where this week's did - south of Nova Scotia - which would set up a slow moving block that could keep us mostly dry, except for passing northern stream shortwaves.  We shall see!

Quick thought on Gustav:  Lots of uncertainty with the forecast for a few reasons.  Conditions are definitely favorable for intensification in the Gulf - both based on ocean temps and upper level conditions - but some of the 12Z guidance is coming in a bit farther north...close enough to Cuba for some possible land interaction...but as you can see in this image of morning guidance, the bulk of the tracks are over water until the western tip of Cuba.  Once the storm is into the Gulf, this will hinge upon how much the Eastern Gulf of Mexico ridge weakens.  The GFS is quickest to weaken the ridge, and brings the storm toward Eastern Louisiana and New Orleans...much like the official track from NHC as of the 15Z package.  As you can see in these tracks, there is great spread.  I favor something more toward the ECMWF and Canadian - and Canadian Ensembles - of holding the ridge stronger, longer, on the western side, which would put Eastern TX or Western LA under the gun early to mid next week, but obviously there's plenty of uncertainty.  (plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University, for more info click here).

Matt

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