A few notes for you today - first, many of you have been asking to see wedding pictures...thanks for caring so much (I'm flattered!) and I've posted a video slideshow, along with a list of the best vendors we had and would recommend, on the Meteorology Memos and More Page.
Second, on that same page, above the wedding slideshow, you'll find video of an interview I just did today with Peter Geiger, the editor of the Farmer's Almanac. I also took some time to analyze and think about the Farmer's Almanac forecast for this winter, which is another bold prediction...numbingly cold and snowy. Last year I'd examined how unlikely, statistically speaking, it would be to verify a colder than normal forecast, and sure enough, the winter was warmer than normal after a chilly start. To go even colder for this year is quite daring.
Now, onto the weather at hand.
The short term is quiet, of course, with high pressure drifting over Northern New England and Southern Quebec this afternoon and evening. We saw the magic of dry air cooling nicely beneath clear skies and a light wind Tuesday night, with 30s verifying in deeper northern valleys. That may happen tonight in the valleys of central and northern Maine, though for the remainder of New England we've already seen some easterly component kicking in, and that will continue to be the case overnight. This means a slow and gentle advection of moisture into New England's airmass, and the results will be subtle. First, overnight lows are unlikely to be as cold because of slowly rising dewpoints, even though the wind should become quite light away from the coastline again. The increasing moisture also means more patches of fog are likely to be observed through the interior. Thursday, more cumulus clouds are likely owing to increasing low level moisture, but remember, too, that moist air warms more slowly than dry air, so we're unlikely to find temperatures quite as warm Thursday afternoon as they've been on Wednesday in the eastern third of New England, though central and western areas may not see too much effect, nor will the North Country, where there's no ocean influence to speak of. Right at the coast, a gradient flow between the high over Eastern Quebec and a low southeast of Nova Scotia will mean a steady northeast wind at 10-20 mph, perhaps with some higher gusts on the Outer Cape, and this will keep immediate coastal locales of especially Southern New England rather brisk.
Nonetheless, the forecast remains dry through Friday as subsidence takes charge and hold relatively dry air in place through a good chunk of atmosphere. There should be plenty of clouds Friday, with an ocean influence and at least a broken marine deck possible in eastern areas, while the southwest flow aloft brings at least enough moist advection for middle and high altitude clouds. All the while, the moisture split of Fay that was discussed here on Monday is underway, with some heading north and some heading east. Folks who read this discussion from Western Pennsylvania - especially northwest PA - are in for a rude shock on Thursday, where high temperatures are unlikely to get out of the 50s as rain and moisture saturates a dry antecedent airmass. And, as expected earlier in the week, also, it appears we're not going to be too concerned with this moisture here in New England. By the time the next shortwave of substance comes along - on Saturday - the moisture leftover from Fay will be disorganized and dispersed, meaning there will be enough still available to carry northeast in the developing southwest flow ahead of the northern stream shortwave and the approaching surface low and cold front to generate Saturday afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunder, or perhaps even a broken line of convection ahead of the front, but not enough for a formidable slug of rain. It looks like this should all remain progressive enough that Sunday brings drier air with a bubble high building in, but still a strong shortwave trough aloft that will induce enough lift for hilly and mountainous terrain to see orographically generated showers Sunday afternoon. Labor Day Monday, the high continues to build in which means weather improves, though the GFS in particular has been hinting at a possible cool advection stratus deck for Central and Eastern ME on Monday, which is something to keep an eye on. Though a northerly flow will prevail ahead of the approaching anticyclone, the air doesn't seem terrifically cool outside of this potential Maine caveat, and I think the combination of downsloping flow and dry air will actually battle back against cooling effects for both Sunday and Monday. Could it be another relatively quiet week next week? Another significant storm will develop nearby, but indications right now are that it will once again develop where this week's did - south of Nova Scotia - which would set up a slow moving block that could keep us mostly dry, except for passing northern stream shortwaves. We shall see!
Quick thought on Gustav: Lots of uncertainty with the forecast for a few reasons. Conditions are definitely favorable for intensification in the Gulf - both based on ocean temps and upper level conditions - but some of the 12Z guidance is coming in a bit farther north...close enough to Cuba for some possible land interaction...but as you can see in this image of morning guidance, the bulk of the tracks are over water until the western tip of Cuba.
Once the storm is into the Gulf, this will hinge upon how much the Eastern Gulf of Mexico ridge weakens. The GFS is quickest to weaken the ridge, and brings the storm toward Eastern Louisiana and New Orleans...much like the official track from NHC as of the 15Z package. As you can see in these tracks, there is great spread. I favor something more toward the ECMWF and Canadian - and Canadian Ensembles - of holding the ridge stronger, longer, on the western side, which would put Eastern TX or Western LA under the gun early to mid next week, but obviously there's plenty of uncertainty. (plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University, for more info click here).
It's here! The first of two awaited publications is out! Each year, we look forward to the Farmer's Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac - two different publications, the former from Maine and the latter from New Hampshire.
Peter Geiger is the editor of the Lewiston, Maine, based Farmer's Almanac, and I had the pleasure of sitting down with him both on-air and off-air in our NECN studios this morning. There are a number of perspectives with which one can view the Farmer's Almanac, ranging from a strictly scientific and meteorological perspective to one of pure entertainment. In the end, it's both science and entertainment that come together in the Almanac, and Peter and I had a chance to touch upon both aspects in our interview. See the video here, then, together we can analyze the forecast for a "numbingly cold winter" for the Northeast, and a colder than normal winter for two-thirds of the nation.
Among the articles in this year's Farmer's Almanac that seem fun and interesting: Seven Survivor Lessons That Can Help in Any Situation, New Year's Traditions That Could Bring You Good Luck, Love and Fortune, Worst Wedding Weather Contest Winners, Household Mysteries Solved (like where your socks go when they disappear in the wash), Natural Cures and Preventions, and Guess Who's Coming for Dinner? (an article about wildlife visitors).
What about the weather forecast the Farmer's Almanac presents?
Certainly the forecast has garnered plenty of attention this year, as it does every year. This year, though, there's additional concern and focus on a winter forecast owing to the high fuel and energy prices. In fact, the Farmer's Almanac's press release announcing the new edition is titled "2009 Farmer's Almanac warns winter weather could add to economic woes," and goes on to state, "Editor Peter Geiger says the combination of skyrocketing prices for home heating fuel and the bone-chilling cold predicted for the coming winter could be 'catastrophic.'" Some of you will wonder why I didn't question Peter more on the exact science behind this forecast, especially if it could have such catastrophic consequences. Keep in mind that Peter does not personally make these forecasts, rather, "Caleb Weatherbee" is the pen name of the meteorologist hired to make a forecast...and, of course, the age-old methods of calculations based on solar inclination and all of the other factors Peter mentioned in his interview you just viewed in the video above are figured into the mix, as well.
Last year, I posted on the forecast from the Farmer's Almanac for colder than normal temperatures for the Northeast, and examined how difficult - statistically speaking - it would actually be to verify a "colder than normal" winter. The snowy forecast verified for much of New England, but after a cold December to start the season, sure enough the milder air came on enough to bump January and February mean temperatures high enough to not only negate, but entirely offset the cold start and leave us with a winter season that averaged a couple of degrees above normal as a New England average. Peter and I discussed this point off-air, and the fact that, statistically speaking, it is very difficult to verify a below normal seasonal forecast. As discussed in last year's post, the Climate Prediction Center - the branch of the National Weather Service charged with producing long-range forecasts - doesn't forecast any below normal seasons at all anymore, after realizing that they were literally never verifying due to the gradual warming of the North American climate. Remember that "normal" is defined as a 30 year mean, and note the map included here of the Climate Prediction Center forecast for the upcoming winter. There is at least some correlation that a lack of 90 degree days in the summer can bring a relatively mild winter, and the CPC's assessment of the seasonal setup seems to lend some credence to such an assessment.
So, while it's certainly not impossible that this winter will be numbingly cold with below normal temperature deviations, the statistics are not on the side of such a prediction, which is likely why the National Weather Service has such a drastically different prediction. This means that folks charged with decision making on energy and fuel use and consumption this winter may want to pay some attention to the Farmer's Almanac, but understand that "Caleb Weatherbee" is but one man, and you may not want to put all of your eggs in the basket of a colder than normal winter!
In the interview, we didn't have time to delve into the summer forecast, but it's worth sharing!
The Farmer's Almanac forecast for the Northeast looks similar to this year - I'm sure many folks are hoping that doesn't verify...this summer was wet enough for most of us!
The CPC forecast favors warmer than normal temperatures, with an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation.
So many of you have asked me to post pictures of my wedding day - Jessica and I both appreciate that so many folks are so interested in our Big Day, and on my Sky Scenes segment on NECN this morning I showed as many pictures as I could fit in the segment, playing Kenny Chesney's "Anything But Mine" under the photos - that was our first dance after walking in to Big and Rich's "Save a Horse, Ride a Cowboy." The day was perfect in so many ways - our family and friends are wonderful and provided so much support and love, and our vendors were phenomenal. I couldn't possibly thank all of them in the short segment I was sharing pictures, so I've described the wonderful job they did in this post, just below the video slideshow.
I mentioned in the slideshow that most of the pictures were taken by three folks, including my groomsman, buddy and fellow meteorologist Josh Darr. Of course, taking the pictures meant he was the only groomsman not in one, so here he is, looking sharp just before the ceremony!
Our vendors had no idea that we were going to write about those who did a wonderful job for us, and post it on my website, so know that everything is from the heart and here because we know how difficult it is to trust someone with such a major event, and we want to share just how terrific these folks have been with us. The reception site is listed first, and thereafter they are in alphabetical order - click on the name of each vendor to link to more information about them.
The Ocean View Inn and Resort...The location is absolutely breathtaking, but still isn't the greatest asset so much as the unparalleled staff and the people. Overlooking Thatcher Island's twin lighthouses and the Atlantic Ocean, the Ocean View has a large outdoor deck under a canopy, and a fantastic indoor reception area. The grounds are beautiful and the rooms are quaint and old-fashioned in a very classy decor. Above all, the people are amazing. The owner, Peter, was meticulous about every detail at the Inn for our wedding from the very first day we booked with him. He was there the entire night of the wedding to assist if he was needed, and made sure to take wonderful care of everyone - bridal party and guests alike. Of course, most of the wedding reception coordination was taken care of by Steve Weinstein - the wedding coordinator provided by the Ocean View Inn and Resort who was absolutely top-notch. Steve's careful planning and robust explanations prior to the day set up the perfect wedding, but he was there to execute every step of the way, and "saved the day" around every corner at the wedding. With Steve there, we knew we could completely relax and let him handle everything, and he did just that. He even stayed for our party after the reception, which we had in the 9-room bridal suite that we rented for the night. The food was amazing (we'd discovered that during our tasting), from cocktail hour to main course, and the staff was delightfully polite and amazingly attentive. And fast! Everything was perfectly coordinated and timed. An unbelievable experience.
ATS Productions, Abbas Sadek, Owner and Videographer...We knew we were in wonderful, trusted hands with Abbas. A videographer at NECN, Abbas' high-caliber work appears on our air daily, and his production company outside the station picks up right where his A+ quality work leaves off every day at New England Cable News. What was amazing about Abbas was that he didn't miss a thing - every time I'd feel there was something going on that we would want on video, I'd turn and look for Abbas. I realized after the first couple of times of doing that, that there was no need - he was already blended perfectly in, grabbing video of every moment with his high-end, professional camera. I've never seen a videographer so attentive and so determined to cover everything. Initially, we were uncertain about whether we wanted to go the extra step of having a videographer, but at the end of the day, we both agreed there were so many memories and moments we couldn't even imagine not having on video, and there's nobody else we ever would have wanted to cover such a special day.
Audrey's Flower Shop...Everything was absolutely perfect for our floral arrangements. From bouquet, to boutonnieres, to corsages, centerpieces and both church and reception site decoration, the flowers were flawless. Jessica wanted light green hydrangeas for most of the floral decorations, and Heather worked with her to make sure everything would be just the way she wanted it. The centerpieces were fantastic - we'd purchased small lanterns and Heather at Audrey's Flower Shop build circles of hydrangeas to surround each one, and mastered the art of keeping them full enough to impress, but not too big to overpower the lantern. It was Heather who pinned by boutineer on me just before we went to the ceremony, and she was as pleasant as one could possibly be - such a wonderful smile to see just before heading over to the church!
Bella Bridal Shoppe...From picking the dress to the final fitting, Bella Bridal's owner Ramona D'Agasta made the process easy and fun for Jessica. The dress Jessica selected was being shipped from China, so there was some stress that goes along with such a long trip from such a far away land. Ramona assured Jessica, "I'll do the worrying for you," and that she did! She called them often, checked up continuously, and kept Jessica posted on how things were progressing, all while she was gearing up for her own new baby on the way! Ramona's genuine smile and gentle guidance was a real comfort to Jessica and her bridesmaids, and the gown and dresses were absolutely stunning.
Benoit Photography, David Benoit, Owner & Photographer...It was about halfway through our first of many rounds of pictures when I noticed that, while David was suggesting possible poses for different pictures, he was laying on the ground, nearly upside down, snapping photos. "Do you always get down on the ground to take pictures?" I asked. "If that's what it takes to get the pictures I need!" David replied. This is the perfect example of how dedicated David was to documenting our wedding exactly the way we hoped he would - creatively, distinctively, and with class. We'd been turned onto David's work after viewing one of his albums left behind at the Ocean View, and after meeting with him, we were sold! His task wasn't easy - changing lighting due to rapidly changing (and deteriorating) weather conditions posed one challenge, and a group of ten meteorologists intent upon getting the thunderheads in the pictures complicated the situation more! He handled it all with a smile, and fed off our enthusiasm for the weather, smiling with delight at some of the pictures he was snapping. David is unquestionably a master artist.
Cakes for Occasions...I first met Kelly Delaney when she came onto Good Morning Live, on NECN, as an interview subject with our anchors during Wedding Week a couple of years ago. As part of the segment, I tried her "Opera Cake" on air, and fell in love with it immediately. I never forgot the cake, or how nice Kelly was, and knew that when I'd end up getting married, I'd want to have Cakes for Occasions Opera Cake at my wedding! When Jessica and I went to taste test cakes, Jessica picked out 8 other flavors to try, apparently figuring the first cake I suggested couldn't possibly be the one. After trying the other eight flavors, she took one bite of the Opera Cake, dropped the fork on the plate and exclaimed, "Why would anyone ever want anything else?!" A number of our guests had the same reaction. Aside from the flavor, the cake was an amazing piece of art - and coordinated with Audrey's Flowers to drape hydrangeas down the cake, too!
Cape Ann Bartenders, Steve Smith, Owner & Bartender...Steve Smith and his nephew were exactly what we were looking for - a laid back, easy-going team who worked wonderfully together, and interacted splendidly with our guests. They had a long haul - cocktail hour began at 3 PM, and the reception went to 10 PM, plus set up and breakdown - but smiled throughout the night, and were wonderful hosts at the bar! We had a number of special drinks we'd concocted, and they were very eager to make them for our guests through the evening!
The Event Company...This was one of the companies suggested by the Ocean View, and I can see why! From the very first time I contacted them, the folks at the Event Company knew exactly what size dance floor would be needed at the Ocean View! They were familiar with the venue, as they are with most other venues in the area, and had no questions. From the start, they knew exactly what I'd need, and they installed the floor, and broke it down, without us ever knowing they were there! The morning of the wedding, I mentioned to one of my groomsmen that I'd forgotten to call and confirm the floor with The Event Company. "Don't worry about it...they've already installed it." Amazing!
Fia Workshop of Newton Center...I already knew how wonderful Fia is, as a person and a stylist, from the magic she's worked on my head since I started at NECN! There was nobody else we would have dreamed of having style the hair for Jessica and our bridal party, as well as our Moms, on such an important day. Fia was tremendous, as she always is. Despite all different types and styles of hair, Fia mastered each one, leaving every one of the women commenting on how talented and friendly she was, and how much they trusted her entirely to work with their hair.
Ludwig's Limousine Service...The limo was a surprise birthday present from Jessica's Mom and Dad - and they sure knew who to pick! The driver was phenomenal - we would have been pleased as punch if he'd simply known where he was going and drove the mile between the Inn and the church, but he was truly a gentleman, and a professional! He knew exactly where Jessica should step getting in and out of the limo based upon the kind of dress she was wearing, literally rolled the red carpet out for her, directed us where to go when we came out of the church, helped us pose for pictures, and had a bottle of champagne and two flutes waiting for us even though he knew we'd be riding the horse and carriage back to the Inn!
St. Anthony By the Sea Catholic Chapel, Holy Family Parish...A beautiful chapel in a wonderful setting. This fieldstone chapel was the perfect setting for us, though you do need to have local ties to marry here. The Holy Family Parish of Gloucester was a pleasure to work with, and provided Hillary, our church wedding coordinator, a soloist and an organist for the wedding ceremony. Our priest, Father Mark Ballard, made the trip all the way from Haverhill's All Saints Parish, cutting his vacation short, to marry us! This was very meaningful for me, as Father Mark is the one who baptized me, confirmed me, and gave me First Communion all within the last year. To have him at the Sacrament of Marriage, too, was a blessing!
Sea Breeze Liquors...Because the Ocean View Inn doesn't have bar service, we'd need to secure our own liquor. I have to admit that we were a bit anxious about this, because we weren't exactly sure how to go about it. As it turns out, we didn't need to know a thing, and shouldn't have wasted any anxiety, because Sea Breeze Liquors knew exactly what they were doing! The first day we walked into Sea Breeze, Freddie was busy working on something else, but dropped what he was doing, grabbed his clipboard, walked the store with us, and within 20 minutes we had a complete list of what we'd need and how much. There were no concerns about picking up the alcohol, or incorrectly estimating the amount of alcohol needed, because Sea Breeze not only delivers the alcohol ahead of time, but Freddie also checked back during the reception to see if we needed anything additional, and he brought by whatever we were running low on - he was attentive, and wonderfully friendly! And, if you have unopened bottles of alcohol leftover, Sea Breeze will refund the money upon return.
Sound Decision, David Natola, Owner & DJ...David had only done one or two weddings at the Ocean View when he was first recommended to us, but Peter, the Ocean View's owner, said "I've only seen him a couple of times, but he is hands down one of the best DJs I've ever seen." Here, here! David is a true class-act. He met with us several months before the wedding, asking us plenty of questions to get a good idea for what tone we wanted to set at the wedding, all the while making it very clear that our wedding day would just that...ours. He wouldn't upstage anyone, he wouldn't do anything we didn't want, and he would always remember it's our day. He lived his matra to the letter. The music selection was perfect, he assumed the role of master of ceremonies with ease, even giving the blessing for the evening, and was a shining example of dignity and integrity. We've heard from so many guests who were just as thrilled with David as we were, and we are so thankful he's the DJ we chose for the wedding.
Tod Himmer and Daughter, Horse and Carriage...On a day with a lot of wonderful moments, Jessica and I both agree this was one of our favorite memories. The ride in the horse and carriage is certainly enchanting in and of itself, but our enjoyment of the ride went much deeper, as Tod and his daughter made the experience relaxing and fun. They were dressed in tuxes, tails and top hats, had a bottle of champagne waiting in the carriage, and a gourmet chocolate for each of us! Tod had invited me to meet his horse team of Sam and Cody in advance, and they are a wonderfully behaved and mild mannered team of horses...perfect for pulling us down the streets of Gloucester after the ceremony. The ride may only have been a mile, but Tod and his daughter were so friendly, and our time spent together in their carriage, along with our conversation with them along the way, would prove to be one of the most relaxing and serene parts of the busy day.
The big reason Jessica and I wanted to get this post out on my site is because we know the stress that can be involved in planning a wedding or other big event, and we were moved to share how great these folks are because they all shined to make our day absolutely perfect. We honestly believe that we couldn't have possibly found better folks than the ones I've listed here.
If it turns out there's anything I've left out, I'll add it with time, so feel free to bookmark/favorite this page and check back as you need the references!
Great to be back with you...now a married man with a longer honey-do list but a much shorter wedding planning list and a ring on the ol' finger. Sorry ladies. (Just kidding).
A few things off the bat - 1) I've updated quite a few items in the Matt's Meteorology Memos and More section, so you'll want to check that out. Will continue to add items of interest that I find. I've found a method to help me streamline that process a bit better to save some time...my biggest problem of late has been the shear amount of time and energy that goes to posting so many items, so streamlining is key, and something I'm figuring out with time. 2) A reminder that the national stories of weather interest are no longer posted on my site - just New England pertinent items - and instead appear on the NationalWeatherOnline.com Headlines and National Weather Page.
As for the weather, did I miss much while I was away? Well, I don't usually miss much about the weather even when I'm off because, like any good weather nut, it's a passion after the burnout of the job wears off, which means I can't stay away for very long. The great part is that Jessica (my new wifey) is on-board with the passion and does a great job of picking out what's addiction to work, and what's truly passion. So, she was more than willing to oblige with picture-taking of cumulonimbus when our drive to our honeymoon in Quebec City turned into a storm chasing excursion with core penetration of a rotating but, in the end, non-tornadic cell. Great beaver tail inflow wrapping around the center, though, and tremendous rainfall. Here are a few pics she and I grabbed:
What about the weather pattern, you ask? Will I stop with musings of my own life and focus on the weather pattern? Surely. The longwave pattern is actually rather complex, as one look at a 500 mb chart or, more simply, a water vapor loop, can illustrate. Fay is now a stacked low over the Southeast and in a hurry to go nowhere. Actually, she'd like to move into the Northeastern United States if given the opportunity, but that opportunity won't arise in due time for her to make that move, thanks to the now-progressive trough-ridge-trough pattern in the northern stream. Of course, having a trough in place over the Northeast is nothing new, though the increasingly progressive flow is what's transpired over the last week and a couple of days that I've been gone, isn't it? The result is for northwest flow aloft to beat Fay down on her attempt to ride north at first, then for northern stream ridging to hold her at bay a couple days more. By the time the ridge moves far enough east to open the door for Fay, she is but a mere shadow of her former self, and the bulk of her moisture will be dissipated and disorganized.
So, in the meantime, we find entertainment from the northern stream, which is more than willing to oblige with both fun and tricks. The fun, for weather nuts, comes from convection that is firing in advance of a strong northern stream shortwave and associated mid/upper level trough that is driving a surface cold front southeast across New England. Surface convergence has been weakening with this feature today, largely because the prevailing west/southwest wind aloft has been mixing down and becoming more westerly with time, limiting the pronouncement of the wind shift along the frontal boundary. Nonetheless, enough heat and some humidity with dewpoints in the 60s has meant at least some areas of convection. With cold air pouring in aloft, hailstones are possible, along with frequent lightning and perhaps some localized damaging wind given the strong gradient wind out of the southwest and west-southwest that precedes the front.
It's interesting to note the amount of clouds BEHIND the front, as well. These will dissipate overnight for most areas, but are surely a sign of tomorrow's weather as cold air just a few thousand feet aloft will allow lots of cumulus growth for most of New England. So, after Monday night dewpoints fall into the 40s and temps coordinate in Northern and Western New England, and fall into the 50s elsewhere, it's going to be hard to climb all that much on Tuesday with decreasing sunshine blotted out by bubbling clouds that may dominate the sky by late morning or midday. This means I went well below statistical guidance and held most spots except the South Coast in the 60s, with a few upper 50s in the elevated locales of the North Country! Combined with an active northwest wind at 10-20 mph and a few gusts to 25 or 30 mph with solid mixing to 900 mb, there will surely be an autumnal feel across New England on Tuesday! Expect, of course, another chilly one Tuesday night.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday feature the ridge in the northern stream moving over New England, but becoming dynamically unstable - at least weakly - on its leading edge. Those of you who read regularly will remember the term dynamically unstable ridge, and those of you who don't...try double clicking on the term in this discussion. Most browsers support the feature I have here to give you a definition for any term you double click on , though I have to be honest that I'd be impressed if it has "dynamically unstable ridge" in its glossary. But, one never knows. The bottom line is that you get warm advection both ahead of and behind the ridge, and this can amplify downstream lows quickly, which will happen south of Nova Scotia. In this case, no big deal in terms of big effects on New England, but we have to make that a red flag for possible backdoor fronts/low stratus clouds on a cool, moist, northeast flow on Wednesday (unlikely as the low is just cranking to our east then) and more noteably Thursday and Friday as the easterly fetch increases in strength and direction. So, I'm on guard to see just how gray and/or cool I'm going to have to make Thursday and Friday.
As mentioned earlier, by the time the gates to a deeper southwest flow open this weekend, the deepest and most organized of the tropical moisture associated with Fay isn't gone, but it sure isn't what it used to be, or even what it is as of this writing. Some of it splits north, some splits east, and the rest diffuses, meaning northern stream shortwaves could focus this moisture for showers and thunder Saturday and Sunday afternoons, but at this point a soaker seems unlikely, and therefore the early call on the holiday weekend is a pretty good one with afternoon convection.
There are two New England based Farmer's Almanac forecasts that are eagerly anticipated each year - The Farmer's Almanac (based in Maine) and the Old Farmer's Almanac (based in New Hampshire). One may think they frequently have the same forecasts - not so! Each have their own team of forecasters...and set of equations...they use annually to formulate their own idea of what's to come. The Lewiston, Maine, based Farmer's Almanac is speaking out - and anticipating a chilly winter for most of the nation.
It's been quite some time since my last post...thanks for checking in. My wedding is Saturday, August 16, so I'm down to counting days, then it's off to Quebec City for a week, back to operational forecasting Monday, August 25. Updates the rest of this week will come only if necessary, and next week I hope to remain away from internet access (though I always have weather data on my cell phone, as I'm sure many weather nuts can attest to) on the honeymoon.
Let me start with where I think we stand in this pattern. What has now become a much talked about summer pattern of repetitive damaging weather is certainly unusual, and also has been record setting. My guess is that Caleb Boulter's (northconwayweather.com) realization that this has been the wettest summer in 50 years of record keeping for North Conway, New Hampshire, will be only the first of many similar declarations to come at the end of meteorological summer at the end of August. If you haven't seen the comparison pictures of last year to this year from the Swift River in New Hampshire, on the New England Photos Page, you may want to check them out - a rather amazing contrast.
Of course, the longwave pattern has featured a persistent trough across the Northeastern United States and Eastern Canada, and the Atlantic ridge that was discussed here a couple of weeks ago has only expanded over the course of time, now bridged from Western Africa all the way to the Bahamas, northward across most of the North Atlantic. This is a rather amazing subtropical ridge that began anomalously far north, but has simply expanded on the southern periphery in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, heat has continued to hold in the Southwestern United States, resulting in a returning ridge that amplifies and deamplifies dependent upon the somewhat flexible Eastern Pacific trough that occasionally drifts over the Pacific Northwest when strong enough shortwave energy digs into the longwave trough. The longwave, hemispheric pattern in the days to come will feature a weak bridging of the ridge all the way into the Tropical Pacific by early this weekend, but that bridge will degrade to gaps once again as the troughs - in the Eastern Pacific and the Eastern United States - return by the end of this weekend. The difference as we head into next week and beyond is the retrogression of the Northeast U.S. trough toward a position over the Eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This is an important shift in the longwave pattern that competes a cycle of placing New England into a "weather sink" that we've essentially been in throughout the year. A couple of weeks ago, those of you who read regularly will remember that I laid out the developing pattern by which a number of surface and low level fronts have been converging upon New England and wasting away on top of the region, leaving surface and low level convergent zones beneath a series of upper level vorticity maximums and associated cool pools. Of course, we know the result has been a series of thunderstorm events throughout the summer and the flash flood that New Englanders have been contending with in the past week. Now we're talking about a change to the longwave jet stream pattern that will bring the upper lows southward just slightly farther west, and while that's a small change meteorologically, it has significant ramifications, as the cyclonic flow to the west of New England will induce southerly flow, and will afford the opportunity for stronger shortwaves to lower heights at the base of the trough and just ahead of the trough axis. This type of setup is ideal for pulling the tropics to the Northeastern United States, and represents an open highway to New England, wtih one noteable gate.
The gate that will stop tropical activity from reaching New England is the aforementioned subtropical ridge, which will pulse westward, then retract east. Considering it will pulse more often than retract, this keeps the gate up the East Coast effectively closed much more often than it opens. When the gate actually does open - in other words, when a weakness in the ridge emerges - it will come courtesy of lowering heights associated with northern stream shortwaves, which therefore means it's the same delicate balance of timing that needs to occur to pull a tropical cyclone northward at the correct time and attitude to deliver a blow to New England. Then there's always the type of setup where the gate opens frequently, but there's little activity to tap. I doubt that will be the case this time around, as the tropics are becoming more active with many waves upstream and a simmering Atlantic in the Western Atlantic, though the central and eastern stretch of the ocean features a cool tongue that has likely been playing a role in retarding development over those areas.
In the short term, the retrogression of the longwave trough does certainly provide a favorable northern stream setup to open the tropics, but in the midst of summer with a bursting and northerly displaced subtropical ridge, all this does is make room for the Atlantic ridge to expand over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States, effectively strengthening the southern "gate" to tropical activity, and ensuring that storms will have limited if any window to actually run north. This favors a track into Florida and the Gulf of Mexico until at least August 25-27 for anything substantial that comes out of the normal storm breeding areas. I make this caveat because, as northern stream shortwaves move across New England, each drives a front southward along the East Coast. With warm ocean temperatures and enhanced low level convergence, the base of dying fronts over warm water can often lead to spin ups of tropical systems, and that will remain possible through the period, especially as fronts grow stale off the coast.
Once we reach August 25-27, things begin to change in the southern stream ridging, with a weakness in the height field over the Southern Plains expanding east and diminishing the ridge, thereby weaknening the gate for tropical activity, and increasing the potential for the Eastern Seaboard as we head into the beginning of September. It's during this time period - the first half of September - that I'm most intrigued by and think we stand our greatest chance for impacts from tropical cyclones. Not only is that the climatological maximum in seasonal storm frequency, but also is a special time climatologically for New England, when we see warm sea surface temperatures, and have a history of healthy tropical cyclone strikes.
Enjoy the next week and a half. See you on the flip side.
For
more than 270 years, the Merrimack Village Dam helped power saw mills,
gristmills, a shoe factory and provided water for a chemical factory.
No longer powering industry and scheduled for demolition, the dam has
one last role to play — that of movie star.
Beginning this
week, NOAA, in partnership with the Conservation Law Foundation, will
capture live on camera the removal of the dam, opening up 14 miles of
the Souhegan River from Milford to Merrimack, N.H., providing extensive
habitat for river herring, Atlantic salmon, American shad and American
eel.
“Merrimack residents and people around the world can go
online and watch the river as it transforms back to its natural
free-flowing state,” said Eric Hutchins of the NOAA Restoration Center. “From your laptop at home, you’ll see years of planning and preparations come to life, and watch the river repair itself.”
Once the storm is into the Gulf, this will hinge upon how much the Eastern Gulf of Mexico ridge weakens. The GFS is quickest to weaken the ridge, and brings the storm toward Eastern Louisiana and New Orleans...much like the official track from NHC as of the 15Z package. As you can see in these tracks, there is great spread. I favor something more toward the ECMWF and Canadian - and Canadian Ensembles - of holding the ridge stronger, longer, on the western side, which would put Eastern TX or Western LA under the gun early to mid next week, but obviously there's plenty of uncertainty. (plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University, for more info click here). 
