THE 2009 FARMER'S ALMANAC IS OUT! AN INTERVIEW WITH EDITOR PETER GEIGER

It's here!  The first of two awaited publications is out!  Each year, we look forward to the Farmer's Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac - two different publications, the former from Maine and the latter from New Hampshire.

Peter Geiger is the editor of the Lewiston, Maine, based Farmer's Almanac, and I had the pleasure of sitting down with him both on-air and off-air in our NECN studios this morning.  There are a number of perspectives with which one can view the Farmer's Almanac, ranging from a strictly scientific and meteorological perspective to one of pure entertainment.  In the end, it's both science and entertainment that come together in the Almanac, and Peter and I had a chance to touch upon both aspects in our interview.  See the video here, then, together we can analyze the forecast for a "numbingly cold winter" for the Northeast, and a colder than normal winter for two-thirds of the nation.

Among the articles in this year's Farmer's Almanac that seem fun and interesting:  Seven Survivor Lessons That Can Help in Any Situation, New Year's Traditions That Could Bring You Good Luck, Love and Fortune, Worst Wedding Weather Contest Winners, Household Mysteries Solved (like where your socks go when they disappear in the wash), Natural Cures and Preventions, and Guess Who's Coming for Dinner? (an article about wildlife visitors).

What about the weather forecast the Farmer's Almanac presents?  Certainly the forecast has garnered plenty of attention this year, as it does every year.  This year, though, there's additional concern and focus on a winter forecast owing to the high fuel and energy prices.  In fact, the Farmer's Almanac's press release announcing the new edition is titled "2009 Farmer's Almanac warns winter weather could add to economic woes," and goes on to state, "Editor Peter Geiger says the combination of skyrocketing prices for home heating fuel and the bone-chilling cold predicted for the coming winter could be 'catastrophic.'"  Some of you will wonder why I didn't question Peter more on the exact science behind this forecast, especially if it could have such catastrophic consequences.  Keep in mind that Peter does not personally make these forecasts, rather, "Caleb Weatherbee" is the pen name of the meteorologist hired to make a forecast...and, of course, the age-old methods of calculations based on solar inclination and all of the other factors Peter mentioned in his interview you just viewed in the video above are figured into the mix, as well.

Last year, I posted on the forecast from the Farmer's Almanac for colder than normal temperatures for the Northeast, and examined how difficult - statistically speaking - it would actually be to verify a "colder than normal" winter.  The snowy forecast verified for much of New England, but after a cold December to start the season, sure enough the milder air came on enough to bump January and February mean temperatures high enough to not only negate, but entirely offset the cold start and leave us with a winter season that averaged a couple of degrees above normal as a New England average.  Peter and I discussed this point off-air, and the fact that, statistically speaking, it is very difficult to verify a below normal seasonal forecast.  As discussed in last year's post, the Climate Prediction Center - the branch of the National Weather Service charged with producing long-range forecasts - doesn't forecast any below normal seasons at all anymore, after realizing that they were literally never verifying due to the gradual warming of the North American climate.  Remember that "normal" is defined as a 30 year mean, and note the map included here of the Climate Prediction Center forecast for the upcoming winter.  There is at least some correlation that a lack of 90 degree days in the summer can bring a relatively mild winter, and the CPC's assessment of the seasonal setup seems to lend some credence to such an assessment.  So, while it's certainly not impossible that this winter will be numbingly cold with below normal temperature deviations, the statistics are not on the side of such a prediction, which is likely why the National Weather Service has such a drastically different prediction.  This means that folks charged with decision making on energy and fuel use and consumption this winter may want to pay some attention to the Farmer's Almanac, but understand that "Caleb Weatherbee" is but one man, and you may not want to put all of your eggs in the basket of a colder than normal winter!

In the interview, we didn't have time to delve into the summer forecast, but it's worth sharing!  The Farmer's Almanac forecast for the Northeast looks similar to this year - I'm sure many folks are hoping that doesn't verify...this summer was wet enough for most of us!  The CPC forecast favors warmer than normal temperatures, with an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation.

Matt

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