Is Kyle a dud? Why I'm not too excited about him, even for Cape Cod or Eastern Maine

Well, here's the honest analysis:  Kyle has strengthened.  He's a hurricane and his thunderstorms near the center look better than ever, with infrared satellite imagery showing the coldest cloud tops of his lifetime.  There are signs of these thunderstorms wrapping around the northwestern periphery of the storm, and Tropical Storm Warnings (for sustained winds of 39 mph or greater) are up for Eastern Maine, as well as a Hurricane Watch (the possibility, though not imminent, of 74 mph winds or greater), with a Tropical Storm Watch up all the way south through Portland to Cape Elizabeth, on the Southern Maine coastline.  It's absolutely essential that folks prepare as directed by the National Weather Service.  I'll write it again - it's absolutely essential that folks in the warned area prepare for tropical storm force winds by securing vessels on the dock, taking in lightweight objects, and being prepared for some power outages.  Having said that, this meteorologist has serious doubts that we will get a single tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) gust in New England as Kyle passes by.  Here's why:

• Kyle has yet to develop convection (thunderstorms) on his west side.  This is usually necessary to bring strong winds down to the surface.
• There have been indications that the strengthening thunderstorm mass has been attempting to wrap around the north side of the circulation, but the storm's acceleration to the northeast keeps inhibiting this from happening
• Kyle is expected to continue accelerating northeast
• There is excellent agreement among the guidance that the storm will go just east of the National Hurricane Center track, passing just off the western coast of Nova Scotia (image is courtesy Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State Univ.  For more info, click here).
• Buoy and ship reports, as well as satellite estimated winds, on the west side of the storm show no sustained wind greater than 22 mph, though sustained winds to 45 mph are found due north of the circulation center
• The storm will soon move over waters cool enough to lead to weakening as a tropical system, meaning the storm will become "extratropical," or non-tropical
• In order to get symmetric winds - that is, strong winds on both the east and west side of the storm circulation - we either need to have a truly tropical cyclone (not going to happen over cool water and given the extratropical transition described above) or a quick and potent transition to a strong non-tropical cyclone that will spread wind away from the center.  Such a transition requires a strong, energetic disturbance in the jet stream to enhance the storm's transition
• We have no such strong disturbance aloft that will interact with Kyle
• This leaves us with a slowly decaying storm that will be undergoing a slow extratropical transition, given no upper level jet stream disturbance to hasten its transition
• There is nearly unanimous agreement among the intensity guidance (see image...same credit as the previous) that the result is a steadily weakening storm that is reduced to weak Tropical Storm or perhaps even Tropical Depression strength (sustained winds less than 39 mph) by the time it passes just west of Nova Scotia, and given the above factors I'd expect those winds to be on the east side of the storm

Put all of this together, and I'd be surprised to find ANY gusts (let alone sustained wind) to tropical storm force - 34 mph or greater - on land in New England.  The best chance may be at the buoy off the Downeast coast near Jonesport, at buoy #44027.

Is this wise to go against the National Hurricane Center's forecast?  Am I jeopardizing lives and property by saying this?  Well, keep in mind that I have the luxury of NOT being on the air this weekend - these are thoughts I can share with you between two weather-inclined folks.  The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are among the best in the world - true experts in the field - and that's why all folks in the warned area MUST make preparations.  Having said that, New England tropical cyclones are among the trickiest in the world, and Kyle is no exception to the rule.  Sunday we'll find out what reality brings.

Do you think I'm nuts?  Do you agree?  Add your thoughts in the comments section!

Matt

Comments

[Ryan]

I think you're spot on...he's taken a curve to the Northeast, and looks like Nova Scotia will take a direct hit.