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Climate change and its causes play important role in Biden/Palin Vice Presidential Debate - Did either candidate provide a scientifically sound viewpoint?

Tonight, the topic of our changing climate came to the forefront for an important and significant exchange in the Vice Presidential debate between Senator Joe Biden (D) and Governor Sarah Palin (R).  Some very important differences in opinion were highlighted here.  Click "Continue Reading" to read the transcript from the heart of this exchange on the causes of climate change, followed by my analysis of just how sound the science was behind each of their answers.

THE 2009 FARMER'S ALMANAC IS OUT! AN INTERVIEW WITH EDITOR PETER GEIGER

It's here!  The first of two awaited publications is out!  Each year, we look forward to the Farmer's Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac - two different publications, the former from Maine and the latter from New Hampshire.

Peter Geiger is the editor of the Lewiston, Maine, based Farmer's Almanac, and I had the pleasure of sitting down with him both on-air and off-air in our NECN studios this morning.  There are a number of perspectives with which one can view the Farmer's Almanac, ranging from a strictly scientific and meteorological perspective to one of pure entertainment.  In the end, it's both science and entertainment that come together in the Almanac, and Peter and I had a chance to touch upon both aspects in our interview.  See the video here, then, together we can analyze the forecast for a "numbingly cold winter" for the Northeast, and a colder than normal winter for two-thirds of the nation.

Among the articles in this year's Farmer's Almanac that seem fun and interesting:  Seven Survivor Lessons That Can Help in Any Situation, New Year's Traditions That Could Bring You Good Luck, Love and Fortune, Worst Wedding Weather Contest Winners, Household Mysteries Solved (like where your socks go when they disappear in the wash), Natural Cures and Preventions, and Guess Who's Coming for Dinner? (an article about wildlife visitors).

What about the weather forecast the Farmer's Almanac presents?  Certainly the forecast has garnered plenty of attention this year, as it does every year.  This year, though, there's additional concern and focus on a winter forecast owing to the high fuel and energy prices.  In fact, the Farmer's Almanac's press release announcing the new edition is titled "2009 Farmer's Almanac warns winter weather could add to economic woes," and goes on to state, "Editor Peter Geiger says the combination of skyrocketing prices for home heating fuel and the bone-chilling cold predicted for the coming winter could be 'catastrophic.'"  Some of you will wonder why I didn't question Peter more on the exact science behind this forecast, especially if it could have such catastrophic consequences.  Keep in mind that Peter does not personally make these forecasts, rather, "Caleb Weatherbee" is the pen name of the meteorologist hired to make a forecast...and, of course, the age-old methods of calculations based on solar inclination and all of the other factors Peter mentioned in his interview you just viewed in the video above are figured into the mix, as well.

Last year, I posted on the forecast from the Farmer's Almanac for colder than normal temperatures for the Northeast, and examined how difficult - statistically speaking - it would actually be to verify a "colder than normal" winter.  The snowy forecast verified for much of New England, but after a cold December to start the season, sure enough the milder air came on enough to bump January and February mean temperatures high enough to not only negate, but entirely offset the cold start and leave us with a winter season that averaged a couple of degrees above normal as a New England average.  Peter and I discussed this point off-air, and the fact that, statistically speaking, it is very difficult to verify a below normal seasonal forecast.  As discussed in last year's post, the Climate Prediction Center - the branch of the National Weather Service charged with producing long-range forecasts - doesn't forecast any below normal seasons at all anymore, after realizing that they were literally never verifying due to the gradual warming of the North American climate.  Remember that "normal" is defined as a 30 year mean, and note the map included here of the Climate Prediction Center forecast for the upcoming winter.  There is at least some correlation that a lack of 90 degree days in the summer can bring a relatively mild winter, and the CPC's assessment of the seasonal setup seems to lend some credence to such an assessment.  So, while it's certainly not impossible that this winter will be numbingly cold with below normal temperature deviations, the statistics are not on the side of such a prediction, which is likely why the National Weather Service has such a drastically different prediction.  This means that folks charged with decision making on energy and fuel use and consumption this winter may want to pay some attention to the Farmer's Almanac, but understand that "Caleb Weatherbee" is but one man, and you may not want to put all of your eggs in the basket of a colder than normal winter!

In the interview, we didn't have time to delve into the summer forecast, but it's worth sharing!  The Farmer's Almanac forecast for the Northeast looks similar to this year - I'm sure many folks are hoping that doesn't verify...this summer was wet enough for most of us!  The CPC forecast favors warmer than normal temperatures, with an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation.

Matt

NSIDC: A DIFFERENT PATTERN OF SEA ICE RETREAT

The latest assessment is out from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.  Highlights include:

• Arctic sea ice extent on July 16 fell roughly between the extent for the same day in 2007 and the long-term average. The spatial pattern of summer ice loss has evolved differently from last year; this reflects the prevailing pattern of atmospheric circulation. Areas of low-concentration ice are also developing at unusually high latitudes.
• Arctic sea ice extent on July 16 stood at 8.91 million square kilometers (3.44 square miles). While extent was below the 1979 to 2000 average of 9.91 square kilometers (3.83 million square miles), it was 1.05 million square kilometers (0.41 million square miles) above the value for July 16, 2007 (see Figures 1 and 2).
• How is this different from what we saw in the record-breaking year 2007? In early July 2007, an atmospheric pattern developed that featured high pressure over the Beaufort Sea. This pattern promoted especially strong sea ice loss. The pattern that has dominated the summer of 2008, so far, seems less favorable for ice loss. However, the melt season has a long way to go. Furthermore, as discussed above, large areas of the pack ice with fairly low concentrations are likely to melt out soon.

The complete report can be found by clicking here.

NOAA: EIGHTH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD FOR GLOBE...D'ALEO: NOT SO FAST, NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released the following:

The combined average global land and ocean surface temperatures for June 2008 ranked eighth warmest for June since worldwide records began in 1880, according to an analysis by NOAA’s National  Climatic Data  Center in Asheville, N.C.  Also, globally it was the ninth warmest January – June period on record.

Climatologist Joe D'Aleo, responds:  DON’T BELIEVE A WORD OF IT. Just a few days ago, the University of Alabama, Huntsville came out with their global assessment and they reported the 22nd warmest in the 30 years of records in their data base (in other words the 9th coldest).

Who is right?  Continue reading to get both perspectives...

ARE THE JET STREAMS SHIFTING? IF SO, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

This article is a bit old (released in April), but interesting, nonetheless, as an overview of research done at the Carnegie Institution for Science.  Cristina Archer and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology went back over 23 years of records, and tracked the jet stream winds.  Those of you who read my weather discussions on the New England Weather Analysis Page know that I often refer to the jet stream as the fast river of air aloft (fast winds) that steer our storm systems and separate cool air to the north from warm air to the south.  A change in the jet stream wind position over time would indicate a change not only in the storm track, but also in the thermal gradient of the earth.  In this study, it's determined that the jet streams are migrating toward the poles.  Keep in mind as you read the study, that this is based on only a mere 23 years of data on an earth that is billions of years old, and there's no way to know if this is part of a recurring cycle that occurs on a scale greater than the time period examined.  Click here to read the summary, and click here to read a report from ScienCentral News, complete with a brief interview of one of the researchers.

NOAA: SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT CAPTURES EFFECTS OF A CHANGING CLIMATE ON EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN NORTH AMERICA

Direct from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

The  U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research today released a scientific assessment that provides the first comprehensive analysis of observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes in North America and U.S. territories. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change previously evaluated extreme weather and climate events on a global basis in this same context. However, there has not been a specific assessment across North America prior to this report. 

TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE: THE LINK IS STILL FUZZY, AND DEBATED

Cyclone Nargis was only the latest major storm to make headlines as it roared ashore in Burma with widespread and significant death and destruction.  Are tropical storms - and storms in general - getting stronger than they've ever been?  If they are, is climate change to blame?  The international AFP news organization examines this issue from France, and discovers nothing too groundbreaking - there is great debate among even the most intelligent scientists.

Have a thought on this item?  Share it in the comments section of this post!

IN BRITAIN, UNIVERSITY STUDIES STRIVE TO LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE ON CLIMATE

Durham University Professor Stuart Lane is predicting a wet stretch for Britain in years to come.  Whether this is directly linked to climate change or not is a statement the Professor isn't willing to make, as he's examined the changing, but repeating, patterns in the jet stream winds aloft that steer storms and separate cold air to the north from warmth to the south, and he's found the same thing other researchers have - natural fluctuations in jet stream location that can bring wet and dry periods.  In fact, Professor Lane comments that modern day society has lost sight of just how common floods can be, when compared to an extended record back a couple hundred years.  Click here to reference the press release from Durham University, in Britain.

Have a thought on this item?  Share it in the comments section of this post!

WEATHER CHANNEL FOUNDER QUESTIONS NETWORK'S COURSE...AND REMARKS ON "THE FRAUD OF GLOBAL WARMING"

In the last few years, The Weather Channel has become one of the leading voices with regard to climate change.  Has the network veered away from its original purpose of providing timely weather information to the public?  John Coleman, founder of the network, says they have. Furthermore, Coleman believes we stand on the cusp of an exposure of "global warming fraud," and advocates suing those who sell carbon credits - and this includes Al Gore.  Click here to read the story from the Business and Media Institute.

AL GORE AND THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE SHARE THE 2007 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE...MEANWHILE, BRITISH HIGH COURT EXAMINES FLAWS IN "AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH" WHILE ONE FOREIGN POLITICAL CENTER DIRECTOR DEMANDS DOCUMENTARY'S AWARD BE STRIPPED...

There is sure to be controversy abound as folks will line up either side of this one...Al Gore and the International Panel on Climate Change split the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.  Of course, it was Gore's documentary, "An Inconvenient Truth," that won him an Academy Award and placed the spotlight on the former Vice President as the leader in a movement to educate Americans and the world at large about his perspective and that of concurring scientists on global climate change and the effects of anthropogenic forcing, or man-made influence.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the branch of the United Nations comprised of several hundred scientists from many fields that focuses on climate change and issued its report this past year.  While many scientists concur with the findings of both Al Gore and the IPCC, others take issue, arguing that the statistics used to build Gore's case were faulty and misleading, and that the IPCC is a corrupt organization.  Some scientists on the list of those involved in the IPCC report have said that when they asked to have their name removed because they could not support the findings, their request was refused and their names were kept on to make the list of involved scientists longer.

The situation is further complicated by the recent ruling by the British High Court that the only way copies of "An Inconvenient Truth" could be distributed to school children across Britain was if they came with a letter outlining nine major factual errors in the film, and citing the documentary as a political film, not a scientific one - click here to find out more about this.  Finally, in response to the British court ruling, the Director of the New Zealand Center for Political Research drafted a press release and a letter the head of the Academy Awards in America, demanding the film's award be stripped in light of the factual errors.

What are your thoughts on Gore and the IPCC's Nobel Peace Prize?  Was this a good choice?  Did Gore and the IPCC deserve this award?  I invite one and all to post your thoughts in the comments section of this blog item.