MATTNOYES.NET - Weather Website & Blog

LANDMARK SELLS THE WEATHER CHANNEL, WSI TO NBC AND EQUITY FIRMS

The Weather Channel and Weather Services International (WSI) have been sold for a cool 3.5 BILLION dollars to NBC, Bain Capital and the Blackstone Group - two private equity firms.  Of course, The Weather Channel is well known as a 24-hour cable network for weather, along with their website, while WSI operates Intellicast.com and also develops television graphics software for private businesses, including television stations like NECN.  What does this mean for the Weather Channel?  How will it interact with NBC's own weather network, WeatherPlus?  This New York Times article lays out the answers to most of these questions, save for the final one.

THE ARTIST FORMERLY KNOWN AS PRINCE SANG OF PURPLE RAIN...HOW ABOUT PURPLE SUN?!

Many thanks to SpaceWeather.com for the alert on the following, regarding purple sun (and other colors, too) on the West Coast, resulting from smoke generated by all of the wildfires, and regarding the International Space Station (ISS) flybys that are underway in North America! (Photo courtesy of Christopher Calubaquib and SpaceWeather.com)

"LAVENDER SUN:  Ignited by lightning, hundreds of wildfires are burning in California, smothering the northern half of the state with thick plumes of smoke. The unusually widespread haze is causing a rare atmospheric optics phenomenon--the lavender sun.  Many Californians report seeing the sun, when viewed through the smoke, turn a bright shade of purple.  Today's edition of http://spaceweather.com

ISS AT DAWN:  A new batch of ISS flybys is underway. For the next two weeks, Europeans and North Americans can see the International Space Station flying overhead just before dawn. Recent additions to the station have made it bigger and brighter than ever, and if you haven't seen the ISS in a while, you might be surprised by its increased luminosity.  Some sky watchers have spotted it in broad daylight.  Check our Simple Flybys page to find out when to look:  http://spaceweather.com/flybys " features pictures of the phenomenon and an explanation.

FULL VIDEO OF PROLONGED DAMAGING DOWNBURST IN HAVERHILL, MA - DOWNBURST LASTS OVER 3 MINUTES...ESTIMATED WINDS TO 65 MPH

I couldn't post this video and these pictures as it occurred or immediately after because I lost power for several hours after the storm.  In my years of chasing after big thunderstorms in Upstate New York and New England, I'd found some good ones.  Big hail, lots of lightning, funnel clouds...but never a prolonged damaging downburst wind like the one that moved through my hometown of Haverhill, MA, on Friday, June 27, 2008, lasting nearly 3 minutes and 30 seconds and gusting to an estimated 65 mph.  The video featured here was shot during the storm - beginning about 30 seconds prior to the downburst event, and lasting all the way to the end.  At the height of the downburst, there was so much going on that I had trouble figuring out what to focus on...I didn't want to miss anything, and as it turns out, I still missed the toppling of my neighbor's "Green Monster" replica in his backyard, but it's obvious that it's there one minute and down the next.  To actually live through this storm was a remarkable experience - I've seen video of prolonged downbursts in other amateur video before, but now I have my own!  The pictures - aside from the two of the storm approaching - were shot immediately after its passage, illustrating some of the damage done.  Numerous trees were downed, and the one pictured below was about 18 inches in diameter, bringing down power lines as it fell and closing Route 97 in both directions for hours.  If any other correspondents on National Weather Online got pictures/video of the storms, post them!  I uploaded this video to YouTube, then inserted the embed code to my post here in order to get it to show in the post.

Pictures of the storm as it approached, taken from Route 110 in Methuen at the Haverhill line:

Video of the storm moving into Haverhill from the northwestern sky:

Video of the prolonged damaging downburst:

Pictures taken after the storm:

LIVE STREAMING VIDEO OF THE NECN WEATHER CENTER - SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE, MONDAY, JUNE 16

Welcome to streaming live video of the NECN weather center from 1:00 PM to 3:00 PM on Monday, June 16.  Thanks for tuning in!

HURRICANES TO DRIVE GAS PRICES HIGHER?

Though I believe there's a great deal of alarmism that plays into such reports and predictions, the talk has fired up again that an active hurricane season in 2008 could drive already record-high gasoline prices even higher, specifically if cyclones affect the drilling platforms.  To me, perhaps the most bothersome part of this equation is the emotional state of the oil market - the mere entrance to hurricane season...without any storm in the Gulf...has already driven prices up, and that trend is expected to continue.  In fact, it's rather remarkable to see in the past couple of seasons the way oil prices and futures respond instantly to new revisions of forecasts from the National Hurricane Center - a move toward the Gulf, even if forecasted incorrectly, jacks prices up.  Click here to read the article on 2008 gas price dependency on the hurricane season from CNN.com.

THANKFULLY, RIVER LEVELS RECEDE

Today's pictures of Fort Kent are provided by Sgt. Paul Vincent.  If you've been following the graph of the St. John River here on Mattnoyes.net, you've seen the clear drop in the water levels.  This is fantastic news for folks along the St. John because it means water levels are dropping, no new flooding is expected to occur in the areas that were holding their breaths, and the center of town escaped catastrophe. Incidentally, the river level crested at 30.14 feet - some 5 feet above the old record crest, and the most in nearly 100 years of record keeping.  Amazing!  Still, the levee was just tall enough to hold back the water, with .86 feet - or a jaw-dropping 10.3 inches - of "spare room" at the top of the levee.  Those of you who saw my previous posts including pictures of the levee and rising water can put this into perspective, and for this meteorologist, it really is the part of river flooding that has always been stunning to me - that such a tiny amount of such a massive body of water can play a critical role in the lives of so many.

Of course, there are still problems in Aroostook County, and the St. John isn't the only river that's flooded.  New evacuations were needed even after the St. John started to fall at Fort Kent, as Van Buren continued to see water levels rising.  Nonetheless, with the runoff successfully into the waterways now, all rivers should turn around and fall.

For those of you reading from Northern Maine, heading home can't come soon enough.  Even those who know their homes were damaged are anxious to get in and inspect the damage.  Authorities in some communities may tell you not to return yet, though, and as hard as that is to hear, it's wise advice to follow.  With infrastructure like electricity, sewerage, and other potential threats that will need to be examined, wait until you're given the OK to head in and inspect.  When you get to your home or business, expect the following:

• Flooding is still ongoing, and still significant, in many areas
• River levels will only slowly recede, but will continue to drop
• Roads to your home or business may be washed out - know alternate routes
• Infrastructure may be compromised, including buildings, roads, bridges, dams, utilities, propane tanks and even stream beds - that last one is important given the number of kids who'll get a thrill out of seeing the fast water close-up by standing on the banks of the rivers and streams...keep in mind that they may be weakened by erosion
• Be aware that new, unwanted critters may be in the structure - perhaps brought in by floodwaters or perhaps driven to the building for shelter when their own was flooded
• Take pictures (ideally digital) and video of any and all damage.  This is absolutely critical to receiving reimbursement when the time comes.  The Small Business Administration may be able to help you with reimbursement (even if you're not a business), but usually only if you have documentation
• Disinfect everything.  Our rivers are clean in the North...but not clean enough to live in!
• If you have insurance, file your claim as soon as you possibly can.  It will take time.

Have a comment, thought or observation to share?  Use the comments section of this post.

-Matt

THANKFULLY, RIVER LEVELS RECEDE

Today's pictures of Fort Kent are provided by Sgt. Paul Vincent.  If you've been following the graph of the St. John River here on Mattnoyes.net, you've seen the clear drop in the water levels.  This is fantastic news for folks along the St. John because it means water levels are dropping, no new flooding is expected to occur in the areas that were holding their breaths, and the center of town escaped catastrophe. Incidentally, the river level crested at 30.14 feet - some 5 feet above the old record crest, and the most in nearly 100 years of record keeping.  Amazing!  Still, the levee was just tall enough to hold back the water, with .86 feet - or a jaw-dropping 10.3 inches - of "spare room" at the top of the levee.  Those of you who saw my previous posts including pictures of the levee and rising water can put this into perspective, and for this meteorologist, it really is the part of river flooding that has always been stunning to me - that such a tiny amount of such a massive body of water can play a critical role in the lives of so many.

Of course, there are still problems in Aroostook County, and the St. John isn't the only river that's flooded.  New evacuations were needed even after the St. John started to fall at Fort Kent, as Van Buren continued to see water levels rising.  Nonetheless, with the runoff successfully into the waterways now, all rivers should turn around and fall.

For those of you reading from Northern Maine, heading home can't come soon enough.  Even those who know their homes were damaged are anxious to get in and inspect the damage.  Authorities in some communities may tell you not to return yet, though, and as hard as that is to hear, it's wise advice to follow.  With infrastructure like electricity, sewerage, and other potential threats that will need to be examined, wait until you're given the OK to head in and inspect.  When you get to your home or business, expect the following:

• Flooding is still ongoing, and still significant, in many areas
• River levels will only slowly recede, but will continue to drop
• Roads to your home or business may be washed out - know alternate routes
• Infrastructure may be compromised, including buildings, roads, bridges, dams, utilities, propane tanks and even stream beds - that last one is important given the number of kids who'll get a thrill out of seeing the fast water close-up by standing on the banks of the rivers and streams...keep in mind that they may be weakened by erosion
• Be aware that new, unwanted critters may be in the structure - perhaps brought in by floodwaters or perhaps driven to the building for shelter when their own was flooded
• Take pictures (ideally digital) and video of any and all damage.  This is absolutely critical to receiving reimbursement when the time comes.  The Small Business Administration may be able to help you with reimbursement (even if you're not a business), but usually only if you have documentation
• Disinfect everything.  Our rivers are clean in the North...but not clean enough to live in!
• If you have insurance, file your claim as soon as you possibly can.  It will take time.

Have a comment, thought or observation to share?  Use the comments section of this post.

-Matt

WEDNESDAY EVENING: RIVER LEVEL RISES ARE SLOWING...FORECAST UPDATE KEEPS WATER JUST BELOW THE LEVEES IN VERY CLOSE SHAVE; PARTIAL BREAK-UP OF MILL POND DAM BRINGS CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL TOTAL DAM FAILURE AND RAPID FLOODING OF SOME OF WASHBURN AND WADE

NOTE:  A more recent post has been issued.  See the mattnoyes.net homepage for latest posts.

8:00 PM Update:  You can see for yourself in the graph below (graph and live look at Fort Kent webcam were posted in the prior update...found just below this one) - the observed river height of the St. John River - that the rises in river levels are starting to slow.  This could be a tremendous turn of fortune if the current trend continues, and the Northeast River Forecast Center has ammended their forecast down just slightly in the latest update, but just slightly is, frankly, all we need right now. The new forecast is a fraction of a foot to nearly one foot less than the previous forecast, and while that's not much in the scope of forecasting a river's water level, literally a couple of inches can make the difference between catastrophe and major disaster averted. Though river levels can be tricky and each river can respond differently, if the current slowing trend continues in the river rise, the water may stay below the levee through the time of crest around or just after midnight tonight. (Video provided by my station's website, NECN.com - serving all of New England including Northern Maine)

But there are other concerns in Aroostook County, as well.  In a situation like this - where so much water is flowing through our rivers and streams - dams that often have been forgotten for years can suddenly become the center of attention.  That's become the case for the Mill Pond Dam on the Salmon Brook, upstream from the Aroostook River.  This dam is giving way on its upper end, and once a dam starts to break down, the structural integrity of it is compromised.  That does NOT always mean you're destined to find complete dam failure - we saw a few similar situations to this in Massachusetts and New Hampshire the past two years in the major spring flood events there, and disaster was averted in most of those cases as the dams began to breach, but in the end held.  Unfortunately, simply speaking on statistics, the chance of a total dam breach increases dramatically once part of the structure has been compromised.  It's for this reason that the National Weather Service issues a Flash Flood Warning before the dam actually breaks - and some evacuations may be voluntary or mandatory from local emergency management officials.  Those residents in Washburn and Wade, Maine, if suggested by local authorities to evacuate, should do so without hesitation.  A dam failure is much more sudden than river flooding like we're seeing on the St. John - when the National Weather Service statement refers to a six to seven foot wall of water crashing down the Salmon Brook and into the Aroostook River, that is a real potential.  Unfortunately, these type of dam failures give residents near the waterway only seconds to minutes for response - not nearly enough time to drive out of the area, and usually not even enough time to know the dam has actually burst.  So...if you're told to leave, be sure to do it, knowing that the risk of staying is simply too high, but hoping that - like our counterparts to the south in springs past - the dam will find a way to hold.

Have a thought or observation?  Share it in the comment section of this post.

WEDNESDAY EVENING: RIVER LEVEL RISES ARE SLOWING...FORECAST UPDATE KEEPS WATER JUST BELOW THE LEVEES IN VERY CLOSE SHAVE; PARTIAL BREAK-UP OF MILL POND DAM BRINGS CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL TOTAL DAM FAILURE AND RAPID FLOODING OF SOME OF WASHBURN AND WADE

NOTE:  A more recent post has been issued.  See the mattnoyes.net homepage for latest posts.

8:00 PM Update:  You can see for yourself in the graph below (graph and live look at Fort Kent webcam were posted in the prior update...found just below this one) - the observed river height of the St. John River - that the rises in river levels are starting to slow.  This could be a tremendous turn of fortune if the current trend continues, and the Northeast River Forecast Center has ammended their forecast down just slightly in the latest update, but just slightly is, frankly, all we need right now. The new forecast is a fraction of a foot to nearly one foot less than the previous forecast, and while that's not much in the scope of forecasting a river's water level, literally a couple of inches can make the difference between catastrophe and major disaster averted. Though river levels can be tricky and each river can respond differently, if the current slowing trend continues in the river rise, the water may stay below the levee through the time of crest around or just after midnight tonight. (Video provided by my station's website, NECN.com - serving all of New England including Northern Maine)

But there are other concerns in Aroostook County, as well.  In a situation like this - where so much water is flowing through our rivers and streams - dams that often have been forgotten for years can suddenly become the center of attention.  That's become the case for the Mill Pond Dam on the Salmon Brook, upstream from the Aroostook River.  This dam is giving way on its upper end, and once a dam starts to break down, the structural integrity of it is compromised.  That does NOT always mean you're destined to find complete dam failure - we saw a few similar situations to this in Massachusetts and New Hampshire the past two years in the major spring flood events there, and disaster was averted in most of those cases as the dams began to breach, but in the end held.  Unfortunately, simply speaking on statistics, the chance of a total dam breach increases dramatically once part of the structure has been compromised.  It's for this reason that the National Weather Service issues a Flash Flood Warning before the dam actually breaks - and some evacuations may be voluntary or mandatory from local emergency management officials.  Those residents in Washburn and Wade, Maine, if suggested by local authorities to evacuate, should do so without hesitation.  A dam failure is much more sudden than river flooding like we're seeing on the St. John - when the National Weather Service statement refers to a six to seven foot wall of water crashing down the Salmon Brook and into the Aroostook River, that is a real potential.  Unfortunately, these type of dam failures give residents near the waterway only seconds to minutes for response - not nearly enough time to drive out of the area, and usually not even enough time to know the dam has actually burst.  So...if you're told to leave, be sure to do it, knowing that the risk of staying is simply too high, but hoping that - like our counterparts to the south in springs past - the dam will find a way to hold.

Have a thought or observation?  Share it in the comment section of this post.

URGENT UPDATE: LATEST RIVER FORECAST INUNDATES FORT KENT, MAINE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT

Note:  An update has been issued since this post.  See most recent post at mattnoyes.net homepage.

The situation is dire and only expected to get worse in the coming hours.  The St. John and Fish River have both responded to the combination of snowmelt and heavy rain, and have been rising steadily and quickly.  The rivers are reaching record flood levels, and will continue rising into the overnight Wednesday night.  With the new, revised forecast from the National Weather Service's Northeast River Forecast Center, Environment Canada and the United States National Weather Service both agree that the St. John River at Fort Kent Maine will rise to 31 feet - enough to top the earthen levee that protects the center of town, inundating Fort Kent in the northernmost tip of New England.  Residents have been working hard to keep the river in check and have been working to raise the levees where they can, but in the end the power of the water will, without question, be too much for these efforts if it does indeed reach the 31 foot mark.

Downtown Fort Kent resembles a ghost town at this hour, with numerous roads and the center of town closed except to those working to build up the levees and, moreover, prepare the town for inundation.  This is not uncharted territory for me as a meteorologist, NECN as a station, or New England as a whole.  This is the third consecutive year we've recorded major or record flooding in New England, and this new routine is one that repeatedly leaves new folks with flooded homes and businesses.  I will update tips for after the flooding in the coming 24 hours, but for now, the advice is to follow all evacuation orders - they are based on history and science, not guesswork.  Remember that flooding is the number one cause of death by weather - folks either trying to drive through floodwaters, or not leaving their homes when the waters rise.  We are hearty in Northern Maine - three foot snowstorms are simply a reason to take the snowmobile - but the power of water is one we must respect.

Webcam from Fort Kent from SJV Wireless:

Latest forecast for Fort Kent, Maine, from the Northeast River Forecast Center:

The following pictures were sent to NECN by Peter Cyr, from the University of Maine at Fort Kent.  NECN has compiled a slideshow of some pictures that I've featured in the video embed here, or it can be viewed directly by clicking here to jump to NECN.com.  Scroll down farther in this post to see additional pictures I've posted, with some description of what we're looking at.  Many thanks for the tremendous effort put forth by Peter to get these amazing pictures to us.

We urge folks never to drive through floodwaters - if the car stalls, you're stuck until you're swept away.  But this does give perspective of a neighborhood town:

This next picture is only the beginning of flooding for this part of Fort Kent near the St. John, but is a heartbreaking sign of what's in store.

The picture that follows illustrates just how much water is flowing into town...and this is only from what is technically "moderate" flooding along the St. John River.  A huge contributor to the problems is the Fish River, which is carrying a tremendous amount of rain and snowmelt, and the confluence of these two rivers is a big problem with flooding.  The earthen bump in the foreground, seen with the bridge in the background is the levee that appears as though it will overtopped.  To the left of the levee is the way to the center of town - with an elevation lower than where the river level would be...hence the major problem.  Next, a closeup of the bridge - the International Bridge that runs from Fort Kent, Maine, to Clair, New Brunswick - closed for obvious reasons with the water level so high and the force so strong it's threatening the structure.  Of course, just a short way inland is the town center, where folks have been preparing for high water.  Though it may look like a ghost town with the police blocking off the major roads of Fort Kent, many folks have been busy preparing for the water - taking valuables out of basements and lower levels of homes, and preparing for evacuation. 
Have a thought or observation?  Share it in the comment section of this post.